三泰虎

印度应该印更多的钱来刺激经济吗

Should India print more money to boost economy?

印度应该印更多的钱来刺激经济吗?

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NEW DELHI: The Covid pandemic has ravaged lives & livelihoods across India. The periodic lockdowns since March of 2020 have taken a toll on several sectors. The promising signs of economic recovery after the first wave ran into a brutal second wave and a fresh round of curbs. As a result, there have been a raft of downgrades in growth estimates.

新德里:新冠肺炎疫情夺走了印度人的生命,破坏了生计。自2020年3月以来的定期封锁已经对几个行业造成了损害。在第一波疫情后经济有望复苏的迹象遭遇了残酷的第二波疫情和新一轮的限制。其结果是,对增长的预期出现了一系列下调。

Against this backdrop, there have been calls from sections of India Inc for a large fiscal stimulus, including printing money, to nurse the economy back to health and help sectors flattened by the vir s. TOI spoke to a cross-section of experts — former central bank governors, bankers and economists — to get a sense of whether printing money is needed to get the growth engines roaring again.

在这种背景下,印度企业界一直呼吁出台大规模财政刺激措施,包括印钞,以帮助经济恢复健康,并帮助被疫情击垮的行业。《印度时报》采访了来自各个领域的专家——前央行行长、银行家和经济学家——以了解是否需要印钞来让经济增长引擎再次提速。

While there are concerns over an adverse impact on India’s sovereign ratings, given the severe hit across sectors, it may be time to set aside those fears for the moment and focus on taking every possible step to put the economy back on track, at the earliest…

尽管人们担心印度主权评级会受到负面影响,但考虑到各个领域都受到严重打击,现在或许是时候暂时抛开这些担忧,尽早采取一切可能的措施,让经济重回正轨……

Monetary expansion already happening

- By C Rangarajan

货币已经发生

-兰加拉简

There is no doubt that go nment expenditure has to remain high. The actual stimulus is a consequence of the level of deficit that is being maintained. The Budget indicates a deficit of 6.8% for the Centre. The states will have another 4%. So, the Centre and states’ combined deficit will be around 10.8% of the GDP. The expenditure as a result of the Covid pandemic will see the Centre’s deficit exceed 6.8% and it could be 7-8% of the GDP.

毫无疑问,政府开支必须保持高位。实际的刺激是维持赤字水平的结果。预算显示中央政府的赤字为6.8%,各邦4%。因此,中央和各邦的联合赤字将达到GDP的10.8%左右。新冠肺炎疫情导致的支出将使中央的赤字超过6.8%,可能占GDP的7-8%。

The go nment has assumed a nominal income of 14.4% for 2021-22. Given the lockdown, it will be around 13.4% — 1 percentage point less. The gross tax revenue that has been assumed is unlikely to be met. Non-tax revenues will also be low despite the dividend from the RBI. So, the fiscal deficit of the Centre will be 7-8% of the GDP.

政府假设2021-2022财年的名义收入为14.4%。考虑到封锁,收入将减少至13.4% - 下降1%。假定的税收总额不太可能实现。尽管有来自印度储备银行的红利,非税收入也会很低。因此,中央的财政赤字将占GDP的7-8%。

This level of fiscal deficit will require large borrowing by the go nment with the support of the RBI. So, in a way, monetary expansion I think is already happening in an indirect manner. The RBI is also pum in huge amounts of liquidity through various operations. Expenditure is being supported by the borrowing with the help of the central bank. The RBI will have to watch out for the impact of liquidity on prices.

这样的财政赤字水平需要政府在印度储备银行的支持下大量借款。因此,在某种程度上,我认为货币已经以一种间接的方式发生了。印度储备银行也通过各种操作注入了大量的流动资金。在中央银行的帮助下,支出由借款支撑。印度储备银行将不得不注意流动性对价格的影响。

The expenditure of the go nment will need to be expanded to increase healthcare infrastructure. It will also need to be for vaccination. The Centre has provided Rs 35,000 crore in the Budget for vaccination and that figure will need to be doubled and, third, if lockdowns extend beyond June, funds may be needed to support vulnerable groups and the poor. Besides, there will be expenditures to stimulate specific sectors. All of this could be something in the range of Rs 2 lakh crore, or 1% of the GDP. This could call for some amount of adjustment of other expenditures. Vulnerable groups can be supported by way of some cash transfer through appropriate mechanisms.

需要扩大政府支出,以增加医疗保健设施,还需要用于接种疫苗。中央已经为疫苗接种提供了3500亿卢比的预算,这一数字需要增加一倍。第三,如果封锁延长到6月以后,可能需要资金来支持弱势群体和穷人。此外,还会有刺激特定领域的支出。所有这些可能在2万亿卢比左右,或占GDP的1%。这可能需要对其他支出进行一定程度的调整。可以通过适当机制提供一些现金转移来支助弱势群体。

以下是印度时报读者的评论:译者:Jessica.Wu

I Am

Every Child thinks that way, print more Money and make everybody Rich.

印更多的钱,让每个人都变富,每个孩子都这么想。

 

Ponraj Abraham

It is good idea. Print as much currency nes as possible atleast first clear the dues of 15 lakh in every one's bank account as promised so there is b chance for new mandate in 2024.

这是个好主意。尽可能多印钞票,至少先按照承诺往每个人的银行账户里打150万卢比,这样2024年的新任务就很有可能实现。

 

Pkm

India fast becoming another Zimbabwe

印度正迅速成为下一个津巴布韦

 

Samuel VS

people should know that the shameful leaders of Congress, who now accuse Modi of spoiling the Economy of the country

人们应该知道可耻的国大党领导人,他们现在指责莫迪破坏了国家的经济

 

Loendra Chowkidar

India's GDP is also fallen like Indian media.

印度的GDP垮了,像印度媒体一样。

India Group

Not only India, it is worldwide.

不仅是印度,全世界都是如此。

 

Dutta Pawle

print more money but only for development and not for filling swiss banks of po iticians.

印更多的钱,但只用于发展,而不是填政客的瑞士银行账户。

 

Sudeep Bhat

Everyone talks about the poor from April 2020. But nobody talks about the self employed and middle class. They are the ones who need to be looked into first.

从2020年4月开始,人人都在谈论穷人。但没有人谈论个体经营者和中产阶级。他们才是首先需要被调查的人。

 

aamir02

Why not, in the last 7 years everything else is gone.

为什么不印钞呢,在过去的7年里,其他一切都消失了。

 

Sivasankaran AV

India has enough currency, increase the bank deposit rates & the coffers will be full in no time.

印度有足够的货币,提高银行存款利率,国库很快就会满的。

 

Chalu Pande

USA has printed money already for entire world, that's why stock and real estate market is UP. that money will flow in different industries, India don't need to print any money

美国已经为全世界印了钱,这就是股市和房地产市场上涨的原因。钱会流向不同的行业,印度不需要印钱

 

Insaan first

Small businesses and middle class have lost fa th in the current administration and are holding on their savings or whatever is left of those. The economy improves when people spend money and middle class and small business owners are not in the mood to spend money on discretionary (non-essential) items; unfortunately it in turn hurts them as they are part of this economy.

印度小企业和中产阶级已经对现任政府失去了信心,他们继续保留自己的存款。人们花钱,经济就会好转,中产阶级和小企业主没有心情把钱花在非必需品上;

不幸的是,这反过来又伤害了他们,因为他们是经济的一部分。

 

Abhinandan

Uncock every thing, let mild co ption run, increase sries, alow 25 percent of black money to be in market . Dont count covid cases, Dont test, let the death to depart.Everything will be in order by itself.

解封一切,提高工资,让25%的黑钱进入市场。不统计病例,不检测,死人就死人,一切都会井然有序。

 

mani arumugam

It is wise advice. Let PM decides what he want

这是明智的建议,让总理决定

 

partha manjanbail

Money is just a number with the promise that go nment would honour. Why print it? Just put the number equal to the sry/ support money in the digital wallets and make it compulsory to be used for digital transactions only. It's faster and easier that way.

钱只是政府承诺会兑现的一个数字。为什么印出来?

只要把等于工资/补助金的数字放入数字钱包,并强制仅用于数字交易。那样更快,更简单。

 

Uday Panchpor

All these experts instead of talking News Papers should talk to the decision-makers through proper channels.

这些专家应该通过适当的渠道与决策者沟通,而不是报纸。

 

Samuel VS

India is moving in to 5 trillion economy and should adopt & ratify minimum corporate tax policy at its earliest to enhance its bottom line.

印度正成为5万亿美元经济体,应该尽早采用和批准最低企业税政策,以提高其利润。

 

Ashok gupta

printing currency even won't help.

印钞也不会有帮助。

 

Ashok Dgk

India soon will be another Somalia!!

印度很快会成为下一个索马里!

 

sampath k

A bunch of idiots and clowns at the centre ruling this nation. Kick them out and handover this country to experts in finance and administration to retrieve the situation.

统治这个国家的是一群白痴和小丑。把他们赶下台,把这个国家交给财政和行政方面的专家,以挽回局面。

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