India’s economy heads for double-digit decline as virus spikes
by Anirban Nag
India’s economic recovery prospects have gone from bad to worse after the nation emerged as a new global hotspot for the coronavirus pandemic with more than 5 million infections.
Economists and global institutions like the Asian Development Bank have recently cut India’s growth projections from already historic lows as the virus continues to spread. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now estimates a 14.8% contraction in gross domestic product for the year through March 2021, while the ADB is forecasting -9%. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development sees the economy shrinking by 10.2%.
The failure to get infections under control will set back business activity and consumption — the bedrock of the economy — which had been slowly picking up after India began easing one of the world’s strictest and biggest lockdowns that started late March. Local virus cases topped the 5 million mark this week, with the death toll surpassed only by the U.S. and Brazil.
“While a second wave of infections is being witnessed globally, India still has not been able to flatten the first wave of infection curve,” said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist at India Ratings and Research Ltd., a unit of Fitch Ratings Ltd. He now sees India’s economy contracting 11.8% in the fiscal year, far worse than his earlier projection of -5.8%.
Goldman Sachs’s latest growth forecast came last week after data showed gross domestic product plunged 23.9% in the April-June quarter from a year ago, the biggest decline since records began in 1996 and the worst performance of major economies tracked by Bloomberg.
上周公布的数据显示，4 - 6月份，印度GDP较上年同期下滑23.9%，这是自1996年有记录以来的最大降幅，也是彭博社追踪的主要经济体中表现最差的一个。
While there are some signs that activity picked up following the strict lockdown, a strong recovery looks uncertain.
“By all indications, the recovery is likely to be gradual as efforts toward reopening of the economy are confronted with rising infections,” Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das told a group of industrialists Wednesday.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50860.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
India is thw wealthiest country in the world if go nment is ready to unlock hidden asset, black money.
Every citizen in the country know this but we cant protest eventhough we live in a de ratic country.
10% contraction is GDP means that growth would be higher than the previous quarter/previous year...
It takes years to reach where we are now. Bravo the past Govts and the current. Soon we will be there where we started.
We assume as first quarter decline in GDP is 23.9% and second quarter decline will be near 13% then first half decline will stand at 17% to 18%. If we assume 0% decline in second half then Indian economic decline near 9%. It's very bad sign for emerging economy
第一季度GDP降幅为23.9%，假设第二季度降幅接近13%，那么上半年的降幅将达到17% - 18%。如果我们假设下半年降幅为0%，那么本财年印度经济降幅接近9%。对于新兴经济体来说，这是非常糟糕的
there is no end of tomorrow, life is more important than economy . you can earn tomorrow but no use of money if you trapped in pandemic
Don't worry about double digit negative growth. The fundamental structure is strong.
Ok we are afraid of comparing with China but what stops you from comparing with pakistan whose GDP fall in the same quarter is -10%. I have no fear in saying that leadership of thes two countris have made this diffrence. Imran remained very reluctant to force lock-down whereas our leader wanted to earn name for declaring world's toughest lock down. What is still worse hee has not owned repercussions.
Not every thing is so bad. Life is stirring up. The Government should find solutions to speed Industrial production. This will open the door for more employment opportunities.
Free your mind from biases and think over why China is 3.5 and India -23%
How many countries in the world has private car scrapping policy?
A senior citizen living on dwindling interest on deposits cannot buy a new car. No bank will finance him. However he will need a car as he is used to it for years.
There is no need to create inconvenience to citizens for creating demand for any industry. As long as a car is maintained properly and emissions norms are followed, there is no need to scrap any private car for personal use.
Next, go nment will ask for demolition of buildings of over 30 year old to create market for construction industry.
It is not due to virus spikes but inefficent FM
All knows that economy is going in worst to even worst condition day by day than also why nothing is done for common people.. A question should arise where is my PM???
Bad News aa aa
India's economic condition was on a nosedive ever since demonetization... Covid19 just added more salt and pepper to injury... Government hasn't even recognized the problem. We live in ACHE DINS..
Which nation in the world has successfully come out of the first wave of CoVid-19 ? If so, When the second wave have emerged? What is the definition of the second wave? How it varies from the first wave in parameters as per WHO guidelines?
How come Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka's economy is in the green when we are heading towards negative growth. They are also going through the same pandemic situation
China also faced similar situation but their economy is not on the negative, plus they didn't blame the virus just because they mismanage it. They built specialized hospital in just 15 days which in India will take 15 years.
NONSENSE. EVERYONE IS AFFECTED, USA, EU, INDIA. DONT BE SCARED. IT IS ALL AOK. EAT, SLEEP, BE HAPPY