三泰虎

2020年结束之前,世界经济还会出什么问题

 What else could go wrong for world economy before 2020 is done

2020年结束之前,世界经济还会出什么问题

The world economy’s rebound from the depths of the coronavirus crisis is fading, setting up an uncertain finish to the year.

世界经济从新冠病毒危机的低谷中复苏的势头正在减弱,给今年的结局带来了不确定性。

The concerns are multiple. The coming northern winter may trigger another wave of the virus as the wait for a vaccine continues. Government support for furloughed workers and bank moratoriums on loan repayments are set to expire. Strains between the U.S. and China could get worse in the run-up to November’s presidential election, and undermine business confidence.

担忧是多方面的。北方冬天即将到来,可能会引发另一波疫情,因为仍在等待疫苗。政府对休假工人的支持和银行对贷款偿还的暂停即将到期。在11月美国总统大选即将到来之际,美中之间的紧张关系可能会进一步恶化,并削弱商业信心。

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“We have seen peak rebound,” Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co., told Bloomberg Television. “From now on, the momentum is fading a little bit.”

太平洋投资管理公司全球经济顾问约阿希姆·费尔斯对彭博电视台 (表示:“我们已经看到了反弹的顶峰。从现在开始,这种势头会减弱一点。”

That sets up a delicate balancing act for go nments. They’ve injected almost $20 trillion in fiscal and monetary support, in an effort to get the economy as far back to normal as is feasible in a pandemic, and can point to plenty of successes.

这为政府建立了一个微妙的平衡。各政府已经注入了近20万亿美元的财政和货币支持,以使经济尽可能地恢复到疫情发生时的正常水平,并大获成功。

In the US, unemployment fell sharply in August and the housing market has been a bright spot. China’s steady recovery is cited by optimists as a guide to where the rest of the world is headed, while Germany is posting some decent industrial data too. And emerging markets are getting a breather from the dollar’s decline.

在美国,8月份失业率大幅下降,房地产市场一直是一个亮点。乐观人士将中国的稳步复苏视为全球其它地区走向的指引,而德国公布了一些工业数据也不错。新兴市场也因美元下跌而得到喘息。

Long Slog

“前路漫漫”

But keeping up the momentum on all these fronts won’t be easy. It would likely require policy makers to top up their stimulus efforts, at a point when some are looking to cut back instead. And for all the scientific progress with vaccines, they won’t be available anytime soon on the scale needed to bring the virus under tight control -- a key condition for business-as-usual.

但在所有这些方面保持势头并不容易。这可能需要政策制定者在一些人想要削减刺激措施的时候,加大刺激力度。尽管在疫苗方面取得了许多科学进展,但疫苗在短期内还无法达到严格控制病毒所需的规模——这是一切恢复正常的关键条件。

Meanwhile, there are headwinds. On labor markets, for example, go nment aid helped to drive an initial rebound -- which may have been the easy part. Next up is the long slog of retooling businesses, reallocating resources, and retraining workers in industries that are no longer viable. That kind of restructuring could play out for some time.

与此同时,也有一些逆风。例如,在劳动力市场上,政府的援助帮助推动了最初的反弹——这可能是比较容易的部分。但接下来是一项漫长的过程,需要对企业进行重组,重新分配资源,并在不再可行的行业对工人进行再培训。这种重组可能会持续一段时间。

Already this month, some of the world’s best known industrial brands have signaled job cuts are on the way.

就在这个月,一些世界知名的工业品牌已经发出裁员信号。

AP Moller-Maersk A/S is planning a major overhaul that’s set to affect thousands at the world’s biggest container shipping company. Ford Motor Co is cutting about 5% of its US salaried workers, and United Airlines Holdings Inc. will eliminate 16,000 jobs next month as it shrinks operations.

全球最大的集装箱航运公司马士基正计划进行一次重大改革,这将影响到数千人。福特汽车公司将裁减5%的美国员工,由于业务缩减,美国联合航空控股公司将在下个月裁减16000个工作岗位。

There are other worrying signs too.

还有其他令人担忧的迹象。

In China, which contained the virus months ago, consumers remain reluctant to spend and the nation’s biggest banks just posted their worst profit declines in more than a decade as bad debt ballooned.

在几个月前疫情便得到控制的中国,消费者仍然不愿花钱,由于坏账激增,中国最大的几家银行刚刚公布了10多年来最严重的利润下滑。

US lawmakers continue to haggle over more fiscal stimulus, which may be needed to sustain the recovery in the world’s largest economy.

美国国会议员继续就更多的财政刺激方案争论不休,财政刺激可能是维持世界最大经济体复苏所必需的。

Adding 1.4 million jobs in August was “a big step in the right direction,” said Ryan Sweet, head of monetary policy research at Moody’s Analytics. But the economy needs to maintain that kind of pace, he said, and “without fiscal stimulus that will be hard to do.”

穆迪分析货币政策研究主管瑞恩·斯威特称,8月新增140万个就业岗位是"朝正确方向迈出的一大步"。但他表示,经济需要保持这种速度,但“如果没有财政刺激,这将很难做到。”

‘Not Looking Good’

“看起来不太好”

In Europe, gauges of activity are fading, and factories are trying to cut costs as weak demand and price cuts squeeze profit margins. While France and Germany have extended their furlough programs, the U.K. plans to end its version in October, potentially putting millions of jobs at risk.

在欧洲,衡量经济活动的指标正在下降,由于需求疲软和价格下调压缩了利润空间,工厂正试图削减成本。法国和德国延长了休假计划,而英国计划在10月份结束休假计划,这可能会危及数百万人的就业。

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who announced his resignation last month on health grounds, warned in a press conference that “winter is coming” and the nation will need to gird to contain the virus.

日本首相安倍晋三在一个新闻发布会上警告称,“冬天即将来临”,日本需要做好准备遏制病毒。安倍晋三于上月宣布因健康原因辞职。

Stock markets are vulnerable to disappointment in economic numbers in the coming months amid a gradual curbing of emergency fiscal support.

随着紧急财政支持逐步收紧,未来几个月经济数据令人失望,股市很容易受到影响。

Overshadowing everything is the continued spread of the virus, with flare-ups around the world.

给一切蒙上阴影的是病毒的持续传播,并在世界各地爆发。

Even when a vaccine is devised, making it available worldwide on the necessary scale is going to take time, according to Warwick McKibbin of the Brookings Institution and Australia National University. His models suggest that the virus could cost the world economy some $35 trillion through 2025.

布鲁金斯学会和澳大利亚国立大学的沃里克·麦基宾说,即使研制出了疫苗,达到在全球范围内可用的规模也需要时间。根据他的计算模型,到2025年,这种病毒可能会给世界经济造成大约35万亿美元的损失。

“You have to get quite a lot of the population vaccinated before the economic costs start to come down,” he said.

他说:“在经济成本开始下降之前,必须让相当多的人接种疫苗。”

印度时报读者的评论:

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50755.html   译者:Jessica.Wu

Umesh Kumar

We are interested in worst situation about economy of India because of present Modi Govt.

在莫迪政府领导下,印度经济将面临最糟糕的情况。

 

wasim akbar

Till the time feku chaiwala will be there Indian economy will never grow, we are headed toward economic downfall if corrective actions are not taken now...just giving jhumlabazi will not help anyone.

只要莫迪在位,印度经济永远无法增长,如果现在不采取纠正措施,我们将走向经济衰落……画饼充饥并不能帮助任何人。

 

HappyTimes User

World economy will make a comeback sooner than later but the same cannot be said about the Indian economy. We are really in a mess thanks to Modi. He speaks on all subjects but not on economy and related matters like unemployment. Frankly he has no idea how to address the issue. He will go to the Himalayas after 2024 leaving all of us to face the music. Please leave now so someone more efficient can handle the situation better.

世界经济迟早会复苏,但印度经济就不一定了。

多亏了莫迪,我们现在真是一团糟。他什么都会谈,就是不谈论经济和失业等相关问题。

坦率地说,他不知道如何处理这些问题。

2024年后他将去喜马拉雅山,让我们自己承担后果。

请现在就辞职吧,让更能干的人来处理目前的局面。

 

JP Mishra

World is facing economic slowdown because of Corona however our economy was on ventilator long Before that...poor Corona came as a rescue lame excuse for demolition of economy by govt.

世界经济正因为新冠疫情放缓,然而,印度经济在那之前很久就已经开始衰退了……印度政府毁了经济,可怜的新冠病毒成了借口。

 

AGUPTA

phuddu PM is expert in wreaking disasters on his own people, he's best at doing that, till he's there it will keep getting worse n worse,

莫迪是给印度人民制造灾难的专家,他最擅长这个,他上台后,事情越来越糟,

 

pmk mut

media always says opposite

媒体总是说反话

 

Girish Nair

Don't believe the media. The best bet is the markets as the traders put their money where their mouth is! when the markets go bust so does the economy! and vice versa

不要相信媒体。最好看股市,当股市崩溃时,经济也会崩溃,反之亦然

 

Truth Shall Triumph

When the Ship hits the Ice Berg. The captain , Passangers go down along with the Ship. Trust the Captain, but keep eye on him.

当船撞上冰山时。船长、乘客和船一起沉下去。相信船长,但要密切关注船长。

 

Deepak Mahulkar

The world over, economic situation is not encouraging because of pandemic. In India situation is compounded by nefarious activities of two neighbouring countries. China is further instigating other countries like Nepal to poke nose. As if this is not sufficient, our opposition political parties have been making all out efforts to make situation worse.

由于新冠疫情,世界各地的经济形势并不令人鼓舞。

对于印度而言,边境局势领情况更加复杂。

中国正在进一步煽动其他国家来搅局,如尼泊尔。

我们的反对党一直竭尽所能使情况变得更糟。

 

Nitesh Kaushik

This is expected, but we need to focus reviving with making sure that we do not lax on some small wins.

这是意料之中的,但我们需要集中精力促进经济复苏,确保我们不会因一些小成就而松懈。

 

Desmond Harris

The pandemic has not yet been beaten.

目前尚未控制住新冠疫情

 

A T

Economy does look weary as of now, but sure will rebound better than Pre-Pandemic era, once this Pandemic passes off.

目前,印度经济确实看起来有些疲软,不过一旦这场疫情结束,它肯定会反弹,甚至比疫情前更好。

 

Subbaiah Sm

THANKS TO MODIJI AS WE ARE ABLE TO WITHSTAND WITH HIS LEADERSHIP SUCH HEAVY DAMAGES IN ALL FRONT TO OUR NATION

多亏了莫迪,在他的领导下我们才能够抵挡住如此严重的打击

 

Lakshmi Narayana

One world war will be the one worst thing that could still happen in 2020.

一场世界大战将是2020年可能发生的最糟糕的事情。

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