三泰虎

俄罗斯经济严重依赖资源出口,而中国经济依赖附加值,为什么两国经济发展会有所不同

Comparing the Russian and Chinese economies, the Russian economy is heavily dependent on natural resource exports, while the Chinese economy is more dependent on value-added from Chinese citizens; why have these economies developed differently?

与俄罗斯和中国经济相比,俄罗斯经济严重依赖自然资源出口,而中国经济更依赖中国公民的附加值;为什么这两个经济体的发展会有所不同呢?

 以下是Quora读者的评论:

Greg Kemnitz, Staff Database Engineer at Fitbit (2018-present)

The “China model” - “it doesn’t matter if the cat is black or white, if it catches mice, it’s a good cat” - and started following the export-driven industrialization path established by Japan, South Korea, and especially the ethnic Chinese areas of Taiwan and Hong Kong, and - a bit later - Singapore. None of these areas has much of anything in natural resources, either because they’re physically very small, or are resource-poor volcanic rocks in the sea.

“中国模式”——“不管黑猫白猫,能抓住老鼠就是好猫”,开始走出口驱动的工业化道路,这是日本,韩国,尤其是中国台*地区和香港,以及后来的新加坡都走过的路。这些地区都没有太多的自然资源,要么因为面积非常小,要么就是海洋地区资源贫乏的火山岩地质。

Also, it helped greatly that the US and China were de facto allies against the Soviets for about the last decade and a half of the Cold War. So, the US welcomed Chinese imports, which encouraged Taiwanese and Hong Kong businessmen with capital to develop factories in places like Shenzhen and Xiamen to produce goods for export to the US and elsewhere.

此外,美国和中国在冷战的最后10年半时间里事实上结成了对抗苏联的盟友,这一点也起了很大的作用。因此,美国欢迎中国的进口商品,这使得中国台*地区和香港商人利用资本在深圳和厦门等地设立工厂,生产出口到美国和其他地方的商品。

Singaporean expertise helped greatly to develop the area around Shanghai and (especially) Suzhou.

新加坡的技术极大地促进了上海周边地区,尤其是苏州地区的发展

Within a generation, mainland Chinese entrepreneurs who learned business and management skills in these environments built their own factories and business empires.

在这一代人的时间里,在这些环境中学习商业和管理技能的中国大陆企业家建立了自己的工厂和商业帝国。

As for natural resources, China has some, but with a vast population and its own large manufacturing base, it makes more economic and logistical sense to use them for domestic manufacturing, and other than a few things like Rare-earth minerals, there are few unusual resources in China.

至于自然资源,中国也是有的,但由于人口众多,拥有庞大的制造业基地,将其用于国内制造业更具经济和物流意义,除稀土矿产等少数资源外,中国的特殊资源并不多。

Russia for reasons I’ve never quite understood, never did try anything like the “Japan route”- and its economy looks more like a Middle Eastern country (old joke: Russia is Saudi Arabia with nukes) than anything else. Whether this is rooted in Resource curse logic or a conscious decision is unclear.

俄罗斯因为我从来没有完全理解的原因,从来没有尝试过类似“日本路线”的东西——它的经济看起来更像是一个中东国家(老笑话:俄罗斯是有核的沙特阿拉伯)。这到底是源于资源诅咒还是有意为之,尚不清楚。

 

Orlando Barrios, works at Miskatonic University

I’d say that the original difference lies in the assigned role of the economy in the nation’s life.

我想说,最初的区别在于经济在国家生活中所扮演的角色。

But unlike China’s orderly transformation, Russia post-1991 was in free fall under the tender cares of the oligarchs and their Western friends. Impoverished & tired, the People allowed Putin to take control.

与中国的有序转型不同,1991年后的俄罗斯在寡头及其西方朋友的温柔关怀下自 由落体。穷困潦倒、疲惫不堪的人民让普京控制了局面。

And he chose to put the economy at the service of his onw policies: recovering stability, growth, military might and international stature.

他选择让经济为他的政策服务:恢复稳定、增长、军事力量和国际地位。

With China increasing its consumption and with the Middle East destabilized by the US, it was the time to use Russia’s vast and barely tapped natural resources to start growing again.

随着中国消费的增加,以及中东地区受到美国的破坏,是时候利用俄罗斯广袤而几乎没有开发的自然资源重新开始增长了。

But this growth hasn’t been married with competitiveness & exportations, as in China: if Russia produces planes, trucks and cars, who is buying them? In Africa, Asia and Latin America, which is easier to find: FAW or Kamaz? Changan or AvtoVAZ?

但这种增长并没有像中国那样与竞争力和出口结合在一起:如果俄罗斯生产飞机、卡车和汽车,谁来购买?在非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲,哪个更多见:一汽还是卡玛兹?长安还是阿夫托瓦兹?

These companies are sustained with oil money, but have little influence beyond creating jobs: they exists to keep people employed and in support of Putin. As long as this situation doesn’t change, there is little incentive for Russia to stop its dependence on oil and use its industrial muscle to compete internationally.

这些公司靠石油维持生计,但除了创造就业机会外,影响力很小:它们的存在是为了让人们继续就业和支持普京。只要这种情况不改变,俄罗斯就没有动力停止对石油的依赖,利用其工业实力在国际上展开竞争。

 

Jerry Mc Kenna, Registered voter since 1972

History is Russia’s worst enemy. For reasons that are obvious the Soviets after WWII concentrated too much on their military. The state owned industries were always backward and inefficient. In a world were consumer goods were a great avenue towards growth the Soviets didn’t produce anything wanted internationally. I am familiar with Soviet made cameras and their stuff was a generation behind, in part because they were using designs and equipment created in Germany and taken back to Russia. They had a native camera industry that was building 1938 style cameras in 1955. If you look at Soviet calculators you see the same backwardness.

历史是俄罗斯最大的敌人。由于显而易见的原因,二战后的苏 联人过于专注于军事。国有工业一直落后低效。如今的世界,日用消费品是通往经济增长的康庄大道,但苏 联没有生产出国际社会需要的东西。我熟悉苏 联制造的相机,他们的产品整整落后了一代,部分原因是他们使用的是德国制造的设计和设备。他们有本土的相机产业,在1955年生产了1938式相机。如果你看到苏 联的计算器,会发现这也是一样落后的。

The difficulty in exporting to the US ended up hurting even East German camera, that were often quite good, though not on par with the best of Japan.

相机无法出口到美国,最终还牵连了东德的相机,那可是相当不错的,虽然跟日本最好的相机还是无法媲美。

Too many people relied on social services provided by their jobs and that ended up making modernization of Soviet products an afterthought.

太多人依赖工作提供的社会服务,这最终使苏 联产品的现代化追悔莫及。

The Japanese improved because they saw the weaknesses in their autos when they tried to sell them in the US (they were under powered for US traffic). There wasn’t any feedback process in Russia and the Russian products were good enough and easy to fix. (Just look a how Cubans have maintained US cars imported before 1963 and you will understand how adversity makes people strong.)

日本人之所以能精益求精,是因为他们在向美国销售汽车时发现了汽车的弱点(日本汽车的马力在美国不够高)。但俄罗斯没有任何反馈流程,俄罗斯的产品足够好,也很容易维修。(只要看看古巴人是如何保养1963年以前进口的美国汽车的,你就会明白逆境是如何让人变得强大的。)

China had may of the same problem, such as a generation long set of wars and civil wars, but they didn’t have a huge set of industries with a large internal customer.

中国也有同样的问题,但是他们没有拥有大量国内客户的庞大产业群。

So the dependence on energy is part of the problem, but the other is an industrial plant and industrial processes that were out of date. Like Japan, China was export driven and quickly learned what could or could not be sold.

因此,对能源的依赖是问题的一部分,但另一部分是已经过时的工业工厂和工业流程。与日本一样,中国也是出口驱动型国家,能迅速发现哪些产品会热销,哪些产品卖不动。

So, the huge internal market during the Soviet era, meant that industries didn’t modernize.

所以,苏 联时期巨大的国内市场,意味着工业没有实现现代化。

 

Dima Vorobiev, former Propaganda Executive at Russia

China was a settled agricultural civilization with several thousands years of written history, cultural continuity and managerial traditions beneath its belt.

中国是一个有着几千年文字记载、文化传承和统治传统历史的农业文明古国。

Russia was a colonization project of a small group of state/military aristocracy. The wealth of our civilization most of the time was dependent not on the labor of peasants toiling the land, or the skills of state managers organizing their work, but on expanding territories and pumping them for pelts, honey, wax, sl ves, timber and mineral resources.

俄罗斯是一个由少数州/军事贵族组成的殖民地。我们文明的财富大部分时间并不依赖于农民的劳动,也不依赖于国家管理者组织工作的技能,而是依赖于阔张土地,为他们提供毛皮、蜂蜜、蜡、奴隶、木材和矿产资源。

Which is why the primary application the Chinese found for the modern technology has been manufacturing. While we predictably prefer to use it for export-oriented extractive industries, as well as for producing weapons and other means of defending the perimeter. The strategic advantage of the Chinese is their vast pool of hard-working, still relatively inexpensive workforce. Our strategic advantage is our vast expanses with an immense wealth hidden beneath them. They specialize on what they do best, we capitalize on what the nature has given us.

这就是为什么中国人对现代技术的主要应用场景是制造业。尽管可以预见,我们更愿意将其应用于面向出口的采掘业,以及用于生产武器和其他防御周边地区的手段。中国人的战略优势在于他们拥有大量勤劳的、仍然相对廉价的劳动力。我们的战略优势是广袤无垠,蕴藏着巨大财富的土地。他们专注于他们做得最好的事情,我们则利用大自然给予我们的东西。

The poster below is from the 1970s. It hails the construction of the export pipeline Urengoi-Pomary-Uzhgorod from West Sibiria to Europe. The rhymed text says: “We’re honored by the Motherland’s order—we’ll deliver the Siberian gas on schedule!” During its first decades, the Soviet rule made the most determined effort ever of modernizing Russia and diversifying our economy. However, a combination of the worsening economic ineffectiveness and the discovery of massive exportable petroleum deposits in Siberia in the 1960s increasingly have been dragging us back into the old paradigm of extractive economy.

下面的海报是上世纪70年代的,颂扬的是从西伯利亚西部到欧洲的出口管道Urengoi Pomary Uzhgorod的建设工程。押韵的文字表达的意思是:“我们很荣幸接受祖国的命令,我们将按时交付西伯利亚天然气!”在最初的几十年里,苏 联统治作出了最坚定的努力,使俄罗斯现代化,使我们的经济多样化。然而,20世纪60年代日益恶化的经济局面和西伯利亚大量可出口石油储量的发现,又逐渐把我们拖回到了旧的采掘经济模式。

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Dave Cunningham, Samuelson was my first Econ professor - he read from his own textbook

China has natural resources, but they are hampered by lack of transportation, just like Russia. In fact, rare earth exports are significant for China. Rare earth industry in China - Wikipedia

中国拥有自然资源,但跟俄罗斯一样,受到交通不便的限制。事实上,稀土出口对中国意义重大。中国稀土产业-维基百科

Until China changed from an ideological nation to a pragmatic one, the attempts at industrialization were ludicrous. What China needed was international trade, and Shanghai and other cities with historical trade histories were the key. Even now, the productivity of China is not more than a hundred miles from its coast.

在中国从一个意识形态国家转变为一个务实的国家之前,工业化的企图是可笑的。中国需要的是国际贸易,而上海和其他有贸易史的城市是关键。即使现在,中国的生产力离海岸也不超过一百英里。

 

Jamie Cawley, LIved in China 2012-2018, now Hong Kong

Russia has oil, China does not (much). Russians traditionally despise trade and hard work, believing in the power of the mind and will to achieve change. The Chinese are capable of working long and hard.

俄罗斯有石油,中国没有(那么多)。俄罗斯人传统上轻视贸易和繁重的工作,相信思想的力量和实现变革的意愿。而中国人能够长期艰苦地工作。

 

Jahan Baklat, works at Local and Municipal Government

You basically relies on something that you held in abundance, Russia have resources and Chinahave labour...both country derives about 40% GDP from their industry, but Russia doesn't export much Compared to China, and China is one of the leading IT sector. I'm a Chinese and I know where our strenghth and weakness are, I can't say I'm that optimism about our economy, we got more people that are merchant in nature compared to russians, that's pretty much all the advantages.

你基本上依赖的是你拥有的大量资源,俄罗斯拥有自然资源,中国拥有劳动力……这两个国家的国内生产总值(GDP)都来自他们的工业,但俄罗斯与中国相比,出口较少,中国是IT行业的领头羊之一。我是中国人,我知道我们的强项和弱点在哪里,我不敢说我对我们的经济非常乐观,与俄罗斯人相比,我们有更多商人,这几乎就是所有的优势。

 

Randall Burns, BA Economics, University of Chicago (1981)

China has a huge population. The reason is that China has land that with the right irrigation infrastructure in place is productive enough to support a substantial population.

中国人口众多。原因在于中国拥有的土地,只需适当的灌溉基础设施,其生产能力足以养活大量人口。

China has more than twice as much agricultural land in production as Russia, even though Russia as a lot more overall land. However, Russia has more land area and with that comes a lot of mineral wealth.

中国的农业用地是俄罗斯的两倍多,尽管俄罗斯的国土面积要大得多。但俄罗斯拥有更多蕴藏着大量的矿产资源的土地面积。

The only way for China to develop economically is value added activities like manufacturing. Russia has other options.

中国经济发展的唯一途径是制造业等增值活动。俄罗斯还有其他选择。

Russia tried had to develop a manufacturing economy, but had some real problems in that process when it went much beyond their military infrastructure.

俄罗斯曾试图发展制造业经济,但在这一过程中出现了一些实际问题,远远超出了其军事基础设施所能解决的范畴。

 

Gwydion Madawc Williams, Read a lot about this

Russia in the 1950s was better placed than China in the 1970s.

Khrushchev had all the wrong ideas. Denouncing Stalin and pretending he was Lenin’s heir, which was blatantly false. And replacing planning based on social need with a pseudo-market that never worked well.

20世纪50年代的俄罗斯比70年代的中国更具优势。

赫鲁晓夫全盘皆错。谴责斯大林,假装他是列宁的继承人,简直大错特错。把基于社会需求的计划变成了一个先天不足的伪市场。

 

Tatyana Astakhova

In China, people who care about the technical development of the country rule because they understand that this is the Force.

And in Russia there is a bunch of oligarchs, for whom the Russian ethnos are strangers. They just pump out resources and they do not care about the development of the country

中国关心国家技术发展,因为他们明白科学技术是一种力量。

在俄罗斯有一帮寡头,对他们来说俄罗斯民族是陌生人。他们只知榨取资源,不关心国家的发展。

 

George Lee, Research

Because China has to rely on value-added, while Russia can rely on natural resources.

This has to be counterfactual, but if Russia had to rely on value-added historically, it would probably have been quite able to do so. Given the entrenched interests, however, shifting from natural resources to value-added will be challenging.

因为中国必须依靠附加值,而俄罗斯可以依靠自然资源。

这肯定是违反事实的,但如果俄罗斯必须依靠历史上的增值,它可能已经有相当的能力这样做了。考虑到根深蒂固的利益,从自然资源转向增值将会是一项挑战。

 译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50113.html  译者:Joyceliu

 

Xiaoming Guo, Born, lived and worked in China.

According to economics, three factors combined in the right combination to create wealth: Resource, labor and capital. Russia has more resource than labor and China has more labor than resource. If allow free labor migration, the market will drive more Chinese into Russian land. If the international politics prevent the free migration of labor, the market will make Russia a resource country and China a value-added country.

根据经济学的观点,创造财富的三个要素的正确组合是:资源、劳动力和资本。俄罗斯的资源多于劳动力,中国的劳动力多于资源。如果允许劳动力自 由流动,市场将推动更多中国人进入俄罗斯土地。如果国际政治阻止劳动力的自 由流动,市场将把俄罗斯变成资源国,中国变成增值国。

The market force is the fundamental. Race is still a heavy factor in the international factor. If Russian and Chinese identify themselves as one people, the economic structure will be different.

市场力量是根本。在国际因素中,种族仍是一个重要因素。如果俄罗斯和中国人认同自己是一个民族,经济结构就会大有不同。

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