从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

英国网民理性评论中国放宽一胎政策

2013-11-22 00:02 40个评论 字号:

刚刚结束的三中全会上,面临人口老龄化和劳动力不足,人口红利的用尽的困境,宣布中国将允许已婚夫妇中任意一人为独生子女可生育第二胎的政策。针对这个信息经济学人也进行了报道,引起了英国网民的热烈讨论。党内保守派对于放松人口控制有两点担忧。其一,若没有适当的控制措施,人口增长可能会超出国家具备供养的能力(到2033年人口达到15亿)。其二过快放松人口控制可能产生婴儿潮,这将降低公共服务能力。

译者:少年张学友
来源:三泰虎论坛 http://bbs.santaihu.com
外文:http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2013/11/chinas-population-policy

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No tears for the enforcers

不为计划生育工作人员流一滴泪

Nov 19th 2013, 13:58 by G.E. | BEIJING

WHEN China’s formidable one-child policybureaucracy—500,000 strong—was rolled into the Ministry of Health this year,some dared to dream that the end was nigh for the family-planning enforcers. Itis now clear no one need shed a tear for them. The “bad guys” of the one-childpolicy will still be around years from now, enforcing what will eventually be atwo-child policy.

听到今年中国庞大的计划生育委员会(500,000人之多)被并入卫生部,有人可以大胆想象到计划生育工作者的归宿。现在十分明显的是没人会为他们流一滴泪。在开始执行终将带来的二胎政策的同时,执行一胎政策的“坏人”还会任职从现在开始到若干年以后。

But the bad guys may not be quite as bad.The loosening of the one-child policy announced on November 15th, allowingcouples to have a second child if either parent is an only child, is meant tosignal the beginning of a more family-friendly bureaucracy. The enforcers stillhave leverage, but in this respect central authorities are asking them torestrain their use of it. Provinces can set their own timetable forimplementing the reform, but they are being officially encouraged to do so asquickly as possible (some will undoubtedly proceed immediately; the fertilityrates in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are among the lowest in the world).Families will still have to apply for a permit to have a second child, butauthorities will be encouraged to approve them without a fuss. Officials expecta baby bump of 1m new births a year over the next several years, in addition to15m or 16m births now; some demographers predict more (and some businesses areexcited), but not a boom.

但是“坏人”并不那么坏。中国于11月15日宣布放宽一胎政策,即只要夫妻双方中任何一方为独生子女,就可生育第二胎。这表明计划生育委员会开始更加亲民。当然,当局者依然有杠杆权力,但在行使权利方面,中央政府要求其克制使用。各省可以设立自身的改革时间表,但中央鼓励各省尽快落实实施(某些省将毫无疑虑,马上实施;北京、上海、广州的生育率处于全球最低水平)。家庭仍必须要申请生育第二胎的许可,但中央鼓励各地委员会毫无顾忌地批准他们。

Some years in the future, the national policywill be two children per family, says Mao Qun’an, spokesman for the NationalHealth and Family Planning Commission (the newly named combined ministry). Thatwill further narrow the scope for ugly abuses. The forced abortions andsterilisations, illegal under the policy but still carried out from time totime, will become much more rare, for lack of law-breakers. The enforcers willhave far fewer opportunities to levy fines for violating the policy (or acceptbribes to ignore violations).

国家卫生和计划生育委员会(刚刚合并的部门)发言人毛群安提到,若干年后,国家人口政策会变为每户家庭可生育二胎。那将极大地缩小丑恶行为的发生。非法却又一而再,再而三被执行的强制堕胎和结扎将会逐渐消失,因为缺乏违法者。人口政策工作人员也会有越来越少的机会去对违反人口政策的家庭罚款(或接受放纵违法的贿赂)。

Will all that be enough to break theenforcers of years’ worth of habit-forming behaviour? Much will depend on howrigorously the Communist Party sets population-control targets, and how itgrades and rewards its officials for enforcing them.

这一切就足够打破执行者多年以来习惯化的行为准则吗?更多的需要仰赖gcd如何强有力地设定人口控制目标以及评判,嘉奖执行目标的工作人员。

Party conservatives still fear two thingsabout loosening population controls. The first is that without proper controlsthe population may grow beyond the country’s planned capacity to feed itself(1.5 billion people by the year 2033). The second is that loosening too quicklymay spur a baby boom that would strain public services. Both of these fears mayinform performance targets that the party sets for its officials, and which arecrucial to their career advancement. That means that if people in some areasare quicker to have second children than anticipated, abuses could ensue. Thereis also the matter that many enforcers have had little practice at the softerside of family planning, and may have difficulty adjusting; and that expectantmothers may have difficulty adjusting to them.

党内保守派对于放松人口控制有两点担忧。其一,若没有适当的控制措施,人口增长可能会超出国家具备供养的能力(到2033年人口达到15亿)。其二过快放松人口控制可能产生婴儿潮,这将降低公共服务能力。这些忧虑也反应在党给官员设定的政绩目标中,并且政绩目标对于官员的升迁至关重要。这表明若果某些地区的百姓拥有第二胎的速度快于预期的话,滥权行为将伴随而来。同样,存在许多工作人员缺乏生育计划软性层面的实践经验的情况,导致他们难以适应;还有处于生育期的母亲们可能很难去调整适应他们。

But there are reasons to be optimistic. Officialprojections of population growth have belatedly adjusted to the decliningfertility rate, now about 1.5 births per women, easing food-security fears(previous projections were based on a fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman).Authorities have begun to accept (much too late) the demographic downsides ofmaintaining a one-child quota: among them a shrinking labour force and anageing population that will put a strain on a smaller generation of childrenand taxpayers. Mr Mao of the health commission is confident that as thepressure of population control is reduced, “officials will focus more onproviding services” to mothers and families.

不过依然还有乐观的方面。政府的人口增长计划虽姗姗来迟,但已经调整适应了日益下降的人口生育率(目前大约每位妇女生育1.5个小孩),打消了食物安全的恐慌(之前所有的政策计划都是基于每位妇女生育1.8个孩子的生育率上)。当局者开始接受(太晚了)维持一胎政策带来的人口下降的危害:劳动力人口缩减以及老龄化人口将会压得人口更少的孩子和纳税者喘不过气来。国家卫生和计划生育委员会的毛群安对人口控制减少的压力表示有信心,政府会更加关注于为妇女与家庭提供服务。

Still, even in an optimistic scenario,China’s massive architecture of social control will remain in place. Mr Maosays a day will come when China ends the practice of dictating how manychildren families can have, whether one or two, and of fining and punishingtransgressors. But it won’t be anytime soon. “We don’t deny there is a conflictbetween the country’s family-planning policy and the reproductive intentions offamilies and individuals,” he said at a briefing held today for a small groupof foreign journalists. “We are making an adjustment today and will definitelymake more adjustments in the future.”

即使在乐观的设想中,中国社会控制大规模设计依然是适当的。毛群安说到,中国实施的一个家庭可以有几个孩子的政策,以及罚款,惩罚违法者的政策都将终结。而这一天将会到来,但不会马上发生。在今天面向外国记者召开的记者会上,他说“我们不否认国家计划生育政策与家庭和个人渴望再次生育的矛盾,今天我们正在做出调整,毫无疑问未来我们会做出等多改变”

canabana
For those who are interested.
China Demographics Profile 2013
Home > Factbook > Countries >China
Population 1,343,239,923 (July 2012 est.)
Age structure 0-14 years: 17.4% (male125,528,983/female 107,668,285)
15-24 years: 16.1% (male 113,504,233/female102,285,206)
25-54 years: 46.5% (male 319,710,444/female305,378,723)
55-64 years: 10.9% (male 74,447,204/female72,451,831)
65 years and over: 9.1% (male58,677,903/female 63,587,111) (2012 est.)
The 15 to 54 age group ratio is 1.056 mento 1 woman or 1056 men to 1000 women.
The 55 and above age group is about 1 to 1.

2013中国人口数据
人口1,343,239,923(2012年7月)
年龄层
0-14岁:17.4%(男性125,528,983/女性107,668,285)
15-24岁:16.1%(男性113,504,233/女性102,285,206)
25-54 岁: 46.5% (男性 319,710,444/女性 305,378,723)
55-64岁:10.9%(男性319,710,444/女性72,451,831)
65 岁以上: 9.1% (男性58,677,903/女性 63,587,111)
15-54岁男女比例为1.056:1或1056:1000
55岁以上男女比例接近1:1

以下是《经济学人》读者的评论:

译者:少年张学友
来源:三泰虎论坛 http://bbs.santaihu.com/thread-7881-1-1.html

AYouthInTheWilderness
I just hope this takes a little off theemphasis on having boys. The current oversupply of young men could easilybecome a problem for others as well as themselves.

我倒是希望此次调整少一些重男轻女。当前适婚男性供过于求极容易变成中国自身问题,也会成为其他国家的问题。

MagicMoneyFrogin reply toAYouthInTheWilderness
China has always had an oversupply of men.China was polygynous up until the 1950’s. The fact that China’s elite alwayshad multiple wives always meant that there weren’t enough women to go aroundfor all of the men so there was always an underclass of single men. It didn’tseem to cause much problems in the past.

中国长期以来就存在男性供过于求。中国直到上世纪50年代还存在一夫多妻制度。中国上层人士长期以来一夫多妻的事实将导致没有足够的妇女配给所有的男性,以至于底层的单身汉群体一直存在。这在历史上看起来也没引起多大问题。

AYouthInTheWildernessin reply toMagicMoneyFrog
Well ok but it that really on the samescale? My understanding is that this is a cumulative imbalance in the tens ofmillions.

好吧,你说得对,但是那是在同个规模层面上吗?我的理解是当规模达到数以万计时,会导致男女比例严重失调。

Does no one anywhere in the media notwonder if maybe our population based pyramid scheme could be problematic in thenot too distant future?

有人想知道是否我们倒金字塔型的人口结构在不久的将来会变得困难重重?

Yes there wouldn’t be enough people tosupport people on retirement benefits. But clearly at some point the system hasto break down since retirement benefits can’t work with even a stablepopulation.

是的,将会没有足够的人口去支撑退休人口的退休金。很明显从某种观点来看,即使拥有稳定的人口,退休人口的福利也难以维持,因而退休体系必须打破。

I have never once seen the media addressthis question. Everyone apparently assumes we can just grow the populationexponentially forever with no problems. How about all the benefits of a lowerpopulation? More community, more land, more opportunities for each person,cheaper food, cheaper scarce resources (for you hippies less co2).

我从来没有看到媒体提到这个问题。所有人都想当然地认为我们人口的增长情况将毫无问题。但人口缩减情况下的福利怎么办?难道会有更多社区,更多土地,更多机会给每个人,更便宜的食物,更廉价的稀缺资源吗?

It’s a major blind spot and baffling.

这是一个巨大的盲区,令人焦虑

AYouthInTheWildernessin reply toNaveedXVO
Indeed it does seem like a relatively largeblindspot, although I’d make the distinction that our *current* model ofretirement can’t work indefinitely. Of course to change the model, we will needhealth care and culture that helps and encourages people to be able to do morethan just limp through their final decades.

虽然我不十分确定现在的退休模式是否可以支撑,但确实这是一个巨大的盲区。当然为了改变模式,我们需要卫生保健和医护文化去帮助、激励百姓在他们老年可以比跛脚的人做得更多。

On the other hand we may finally bereaching the level of automated output in the developed world that can supporta minimal living for everyone, assuming(!) it does not all continue to flow tothose that already have more than enough.

另一方面,假设我们的福利没有继续被那些已经得到满足的人所滥用的话,我们可以最终达到能够支持人人低水平生活保障的发达国家自动化产出水平。

lewontinsfallacyin reply to NaveedXVO
You are absolutely right. In fact it is aponzi scheme, a giant one! And as you say: nobody talks about that. But whatwill we the consequences? In 2100 subsaharaafrika will have at leat 4 billionpeople. Then 20 billion in 2200. but ine day it will have to stop, and whatthen? The you someday have 20 billion old people in subsaharaafrica and noteniugh young peope to support them

你说得很对。事实上这是一个巨大的庞式骗局。正如你所说,没人谈论这个。但我们最终的面临的结果是什么呢?到2100年的时候,撒哈拉以南地区将有至少40亿的人口。到了2200年的时候就会有200亿人口。但是到了那个时候人口增长不得不停滞,那然后呢?在撒哈拉以南地区拥有200亿人口,但没有足够的年轻人去供养他们。

francisbjohn
Fat chance the Communists will ever trulygive up power, even in this one limited case. Even if they allow people to haveas many children as they want they’ll still demand a license or some other suchkowtow…

未来gcd真正放弃权力的希望渺茫,更别说这个影响有限的事例。即使他们允许百姓生育第二胎,百姓依然被要求申请许可或者其他例如叩头的事情。

seize_the_diem
Pity the young Chinese male. Even if hedoes manage to find a bride, he will need to support not only her, but herparents along with his own parents. Better start saving now!

真同情中国年轻的男人们。虽然他只打算找个老婆,但他不仅需要照顾老婆,而且要养育岳父岳母和自身的父母。从现在开始开始储蓄比较好!

IsRamic
I hope China understands that the choice ofhaving children ultimately falls on to Women and the more educated a Woman is,the more likely she is to not have children. Russia and Germany have tried andfailed with these “pro-children” programs.

我希望中国明白一个道理,就是是否生小孩的最终选择权在于妇女,妇女的教育程度越高,她就越不想要孩子。俄罗斯和德国已经试过这些“亲子”计划,但都失败了。

MagicMoneyFrog in reply to IsRamic
“the choice of having childrenultimately falls on to Women”

“是否生小孩的最终选择权在于妇女”

That’s feminist garbage. In a healthyculture, that choice is made- at the very least- jointly by the man and thewoman. In China, their parents are also in on the choice. Something thatcommentators on China often forget is that even though a married couple inChina might only want one child (and don’t care if it is a boy or a girl), theyreceive immense pressure from their parents to have multiple children andprovide them with grandsons. So the demand for children within a family inChina is quite high (even if it is not overly high among the parentsthemselves), so if the one-child policy is weakened the Chinese parents willrespond to their parents demand for a greater number of grandchildren.

那是女权主义的弊端。在一个健康的文化氛围中,生育权起码男女共有。在中国,他们的父母也握有选择权。中国问题评论家经常忽略一点,就中国的已婚夫妇可能只要一个小孩(无论是男是女),但他们承受着来自父母想要更多孙子孙女的压力。因此,中国家庭对孩子的渴望相当地高,也因此,要是一胎政策弱化的话中国的已婚夫妇会生育很多孙子孙女来满足父母。

The situation in Russia and Germany iscompletely different.

俄罗斯和德国的情况与这完全不同。

IsRamicin reply to MagicMoneyFrog
Is the situation really that different? Allthree countries are either developed or developing, a woman has a largeopportunity in both nations to be well-educated and employed, Women who areable to obtain an education and have employment opportunities do not want asmany children as women without, it a sociological fact that has been proven inevery society regardless of race, culture or religion.

情况真的不同吗?这三个国家无论发达与否,妇女都有大量的机会在各自的国家接受良好的教育,得到工作机会。受过教育和参与工作的妇女与那些没有受过教育的家庭主妇相比更不想要孩子。这个社会现象已经在任何社会被证实,无论种族、文化、宗教。

Even if the Husband, Grandparents andeveryone else wants children, if the Woman doesn’t want children in aheterosexual marriage then there will be no children. Culture may influence butit cannot force. China’s population decline will be from the same source asevery Western nation, modernization, the richer and more advanced your societyis, the less children it will produce.

虽然丈夫,祖父母和其他人想要孩子,要是异性恋中的妇女不想要孩子,那也就会没有孩子。文化可以影响但不能强迫生育。中国人口下降的现象将会和西方国家情况一致,社会越现代化,越富有,越发展,生育率越低。

TL;DR China’s situation is similar toRussia and Germany. It’s not “Feminist Garbage” it’s sociology.

中国的情况跟俄罗斯和德国相似。这不是女权主义的弊端。这是社会规律。

4kKbyRwvop
With China having more boys than girls andwith the addition of the one child policy, I really wonder what in the worldthe Chinese government is thinking. Even if the one/two child policy wasaborted this moment the fertility levels would with high probability be verylow now and in the future. China has become more modern, so one can’t expect ahigher fertility rate than ca 1.8 when there is little social security and moreneed for young people to study and so on.
Even with the most insane growth China willstill drown in its old people before it gets rich enough to manage to care forthem.

当中国男孩多于女孩,执行计划生育政策的时候,我十分想知道中国到底在想什么。虽然一胎政策此刻终止了,但生育率很可能现在到未来都非常低。中国已经变得更加现代化,因此不能再期待比每个妇女生育1.8个小孩的生育率更高。那个生育率社会处于缺乏社会安全,需要更多年轻人学习等的一个时期。在中国变得富有去有财力照顾老年人口之前,中国未富,不可思议的增长率持续下降,而人口老龄化却已到来。

With the fact that statisticallydictatorships is really useless at industries that need creativity and highknowledge, It is really is hard to understand how the Chinese government thinkit will get tax money from its old people when the only work then can do(thinking work, not physical work) will be hard to do in China due to itspolitical system and its cultural ways.

考虑到从数据上看du cai政体无法发展创造性产业和知识密集型产业,我十分不懂当中国想要发展的产业(智慧产业,非劳动力产业)由于中国的政体和文化而艰难发展之时,中国如何从老年人手中获取税收。

Its really a shame the Chinese was sosuccessful in making its current young generation think democracy is bad,because it will take two or more generations to change that mindset, and thatis so long that the wave of old people will hit before the needed changes hashappened.

真是耻辱啊,中国在使其年轻一代认识到皿煮不好,在这一方面取得巨大成功。因为中国花费2代或者更多时间去改造人民的思想。时间如此之长,导致在必须的改变发生之前,老龄化就发生了。

The Chinese government seems to think itwill succeed in making China a knowledge based economy without fast democraticreform, even when there is not a single case of this being done with adictatorship in human history.

中国似乎它将在没有快速皿煮改革的前提下,成功使中国发展为智慧型经济。但在人类历史上没有一个成功范例是在du cai政体下发生的。

As an outsider it is like watch a slowmoving train crash where all the passengers spend all their time convincingeach other that all is fine. We will see if it is fine in 30 years time I guess.

作为一位旁观者,就像在观看一部缓慢前行的火车相撞,车上的人用尽他们心血去让人相信一切都是完美的。我想未来30年的时间可以见证是否一切是完美的。

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    • 洋鬼子就是这样自以为是 以中国的耕地面积和资源 最佳的人口数量是6-7亿 搞计划生育就是为了降低人口总的基数 如果他们自己国家的人口 也超出国家的承载能力 他们也没功夫在这装上帝啦

  1. 有兄弟姐们的成长环境可以完整小孩子的个性和人格,更懂与人相处,是好事情。只是享受这好政策是牺牲了前30十年的人们的生育权才得以实现的,没有他们的牺牲奉献,就没有可改革的空间。还是社会应多从退休政策,养老,福利方面照顾那些独生子女的家庭,这样才公平。

  2. 白皮们都是一个尿性,都喜欢以圣人(换句他们自己的话就是被上帝选择的人–我呸!)身份对别人指指点点说这说那;同样的事情放到他们身上就不一样了,典型就是印第安人遭遇(这还是即将灭绝的,已经被灭绝的还不知道有多少)。

  3. 你们都误解了 其实白皮肤国家人的想法很好理解 就是全部都有自由 中国可以有自己说的算的生活权利 他不担心你人多 只要你不用资源不发展就行 你有越多的劳动力给他们创造财富就行了 你只要发展总有弊端 他们的出发点是他们自己 至于什么自由民主啊 都是建立在对他们有利的基础上 其实我们社会也是这样 你怎么做都不对 你人口多了 他说你占用资源 你计划生育他说你不人道 但是他们不会想我们不计划生育怎么减少人口 难道要屠杀吗?所以这些白猪更自私 我以前听过有人做过报道 中国越来越富裕了 等到中国和美国一样富裕的时候那么全世界的资源都不够中国用 这点我觉得真2B 他们到底想表达什么意思 是中国不能富裕呢 还是中国不该富裕 难道我们人多就不能发展了吗 如果全世界资源都不够中国消耗那么中国肯定就达不到美国现在的水平 这就是他们的平等自由吗 我们人多就不配发展了吗 白人作威作福这么多年了 也该分点给别人了 他们所说的民主自由 公平 都是个P 这一切要不妨碍他们作威作福的基础上的

  4. 国家卫生和计划生育委员会(刚刚合并的部门)发言人毛群安提到,若干年后,国家人口政策会变为每户家庭可生育二胎。那将极大地缩小丑恶行为的发生。非法却又一而再,再而三被执行的强制堕胎和结扎将会逐渐消失,因为缺乏违法者。人口政策工作人员也会有越来越少的机会去对违反人口政策的家庭罚款(或接受放纵违法的贿赂)。 有这么说话的蠢货吗?瞎鸡巴乱编也要有点依据。 😈

    • 其实西班牙谈不上反华,不信问问在西经商的中国倒爷们就知道,这2年开始有点走下坡路,主要还是中国打压欧洲的战略日益明显所致形成的反弹。欧洲最反华的,看看我给你算一下啊,应该是挪威的极右翼部分,德国,捷克,波兰,罗马尼亚,阿塞拜疆,可能还有立陶宛。至于为什么,这些国家各自反华的原因不太一样,但也有些共性可循,比如说都是主动靠拢美国,反俄反东方主义,某些国家有些250的优越感,还有一些天主教天生的极端推崇意识形态至上的老毛病。

  5. 洋鬼们长着一对彩色眼球,却它奶奶的看世界是黑白色的,看自己是白的别人都是黑的,看来它们的上帝很公平,升级了眼睛屏蔽了脑仁,真是和我们有着几千年文化积淀的民族没得比,老祖宗智慧告诉我们世界是五彩缤纷的

  6. 寄生危是利益攸关方,如果计生放宽,它的权利就会减小,利益回减小,最后寄生萎这个单位甚至有被取消的危险。所以它不应参与计生决策,而提供建议,执行国家政策就可以。

  7. 看来看去还是觉得性别比例失衡是个大问题。

    十年后适龄婚育的女孩少3000万,这不是一个国家的人口的类型,一个国家的人口有男有女有老有少。这些就是整整3000万精力旺盛的小伙子,如果没有正确引导,其破坏力是非常惊人的。

    最最直接有效的方式,就是战争,以邻为壑。

    阿弥陀佛,罪过,罪过

  8. 从最高道义上来说,堕胎是不被容许的。迷失在物资氛围中才会去想多子多福。如果社会改变成追求心灵的进化则不会多生,甚至一胎都不想生,那时候会有法律强求人来至少生育一个的。

  9. 就是,你们要尊重生育这个基本人权,但是不要到我家来生,而且我家里的人也不想生,所以我不用担心这个问题,所以你们必须得尊重基本人权。