原文标题： Indo-Pak nuke war may set off global FAMINE: Study
More than a billion people around the world could face starvation if a nuclear war breaks out between India and Pakistan, according to a new report which said the “nuclear famine” will be an “unprecedented” disaster that would bring an end to modern civilisation.
The report released by International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War said a nuclear “confrontation” between the South Asian neighbours, even if it is restricted to the region, would cause major worldwide climate disruption driving down food production in China, the United States and other nations.
“New evidence that even the relatively small nuclear arsenals of countries such as India and Pakistan could cause long lasting, global damage to the Earth’s ecosystems and threaten hundreds of millions of already malnourished people demands that action be taken,” said Ira Helfand, author of the study.
The study ‘Nuclear Famine: A Billion People at Risk-Global Impacts of Limited Nuclear War on Agriculture, Food Supplies, and Human Nutrition’ found that mass famine deaths would likely be unavoidable.
Helfand said the “needless and preventable deaths of one billion people over a decade would be a disaster unprecedented in human history. It would not cause the extinction of the human race, but it would bring an end to modern civilization as we know it.”
“The grim prospect of nuclear famine requires a fundamental change in our thinking about nuclear weapons,” said Helfand in the study, which was also released by IPPNW’s US affiliate, Physicians for Social Responsibility.
Helfand, IPPNW’s North American vice president, worked with data produced by scientists who have studied the climate effects of a hypothetical nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
Helfand and a team of experts in agriculture and nutrition determined that plunging temperatures and reduced precipitation in critical farming regions, caused by soot and smoke lofted into the atmosphere by multiple nuclear explosions, would interfere with crop production and affect food availability and prices worldwide.
The study found that a limited regional nuclear weapons exchange between India and Pakistan would result in decline in US corn production by an average of 10 per cent for an entire decade, with the most severe decline — 20 per cent — occurring in the fifth year after such a war.
Soybean production would decline by about seven per cent. China would also see a significant decline in its middle-season rice production. During the first four years, rice production would decline by an average of 21 per cent and over the next six years the decline would average 10 per cent, the study said.
This decline in food production would result in increases in food prices, which in turn would make food inaccessible to hundreds of millions of the world’s poorest.
Significant agricultural shortfalls over an extended period would almost certainly lead to panic and hoarding on an international scale, further reducing accessible food.
An estimated 215 million people would be added to the rolls of the malnourished over the course of a decade even if agricultural markets continued to function normally, the report said.
“There is an urgent need to reduce the reliance on nuclear weapons by all nuclear weapons states and to move with all possible speed to the negotiation of a nuclear weapons convention that will ban these weapons completely,” the report concluded.
Commenting on the report, Ambassador Jayantha Dhanapala, former United Nations Under Secretary General of Disarmament Affairs, said unlike biological and chemical weapons, nuclear weapons have not been outlawed because of “vested interests”.
Nine countries have 20,530 nuclear warheads among them, with 95 per cent being with the US and Russia.
“As long as these weapons exist others, including terrorists, will want them. As long as we have nuclear weapons their use by intention or accident; by states or by non-state actors is inevitable,” Dhanapala said adding that total elimination of nuclear weapons through a Nuclear Weapons Convention is the only solution.
Former Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev said use of nuclear weapons in a military conflict is “unthinkable” and to achieve political objectives is “immoral”.
Noting that nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, Gorbachev said the study underscores in “stunning and disturbing” detail why the world must discard Cold War-style plans for the possible use of nuclear weapons and move rapidly to eliminating them from the world’s arsenals.
Indo-Pak nuke war may set off global FAMINE: Study
by adalrich kauffman (View MyPage) on Apr 28, 2012 03:07 PM
It doesn’t need a “Nuclear-War” to set off a Global Famine…there’s a Famine around the World already…the 2 Countries anyway watch Millions Die of Starvation Every Year…no Money to Feed the Hungry but all the Money to Carry out Nuclear/Rocket Tests…especially Pakistan which is a Live Rocket in itself…waiting to blow up…
If Asian countries get as vile as US
by Ujwala Kulkarni (View MyPage) on Apr 26, 2012 09:36 AM
US is the only country to have used n-weapons – not only once but twice. Their penchant for use of chemical weapons and other forms of WMDs is also well known. They have scant regard for human life and international law. Shooting civil airliners out of sky, attacking sovereign nations unprovoked (and even arresting their presidents) and dropping millions of tons of explosives on hapless countries – they have done it all. One wonders what will happen to the world if other nations tend to follow suit and get as vile and trigger-happy as the US.
by dwarak k (View MyPage) on Apr 26, 2012 09:17 AM
If China,Pakistan can have nukes then India must definitely have nuclear missiles so that our we are able to guard our borders and it will act as deterrent for our neighbours.
by Bhagwan (View MyPage) on Apr 26, 2012 12:02 AM
In my opinion a war between China and USA NATO..etc..will have better inpact on setting off global famine.
y ind pak??
by veerapuram dharan (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 07:23 PM | Hide replies
y ind being compared to pak??have we become equals with pak?? just a mere posession of 70 nukes doesnt guarantee a victory..they shd knw how to use it as its been smuggled from china..
by antoniomaino (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 07:12 PM
Don’t just waste time by studying? STOP the JIHADIS from acquiring NUCLEAR BOMB? AMERICA ios a friend of PAKISTAN so you can put the nooose around the JIHHADIS?
india is in measerable state
by Dude (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 05:49 PM | Hide replies
This will not happen and only india will have to bear consequences….as China & Paki can destroy india
Re: india is in measerable state
by Dude (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 05:50 PM
by mere 200 nukes world will not come to end…even good 4 world
Re: Re: india is in measerable state
by warrsan (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 06:16 PM
will face book and rediff survive???
My type lives
by Chanakya (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 02:25 PM | Hide replies
When nuclear war takes almost all the people will die within days and only my type people will live with lots of food. There will be no famine as there will be left only few people.
Did we have a famine after hiroshima & nagasaki?
by Ekalavyan Acharyan (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:56 PM
An alarmist article..
US has the largest nuclear stockpile and they have conducted numerous tests…and no famine has happened. They are the only nation who have used against other fellow humans (with a questionable logic of saving american lives)!
I think this is a fodder for anti-indian nuclear activities given we tested Agni-V now and nuclear reactor is going to get commissioned soon in TN.
Verdict: Rubbish article!
What is this topic…
by Incredible India (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:52 PM
Rediff is enjoying its fantasies by making people fool; it has become a sci-fi movie for rediff..
by om shanti (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 12:41 PM
Haha,what a thundering topic rediff found today !!!
by Ravi (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 12:38 PM
Pakistan is made to end the humanity from the earth as the religion which it follow taught only that.
by Indian India (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 12:32 PM
I find from the behaviour of China that they want to rule the world and its a real threat to the world. Let china improve its economy, sell its products world wide, come up economically well but why they want to rule the world ….let them only rule China and compete and win the world markets…. but trying force/threat/terrorise india and other countries is no justification. so, india must develop some device that could divert PAKISTAN’s nuclear warheads, that are aimed at India, to china…. is it possible!!!!!!!!!
WHY ONLY INDIA-PAK ?
by Thomas Philip (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 12:32 PM | Hide replies
Any nuclear war is going to lead to global famine.The stockpilers of nukes are Western nations.They are unlikely to use these against themselves.The victims are likely to be in Asia only.
by Robertclive (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 12:27 PM
under the weak PM any thing is possible even lanka can capture india today.
the only thing
by chintan jhunjhunwala (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 12:25 PM
that will happen is extermination of p a ki stan.
The world is at risk……………………..only from Americans
by max pack (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 12:06 PM | Hide replies
The world is at risk………only from Americans.
Re: The world is at risk……………………..only from Ameri
by kuldip bhatt (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 12:21 PM
And Chinese too…
by Cuthbert Calculus (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 11:48 AM | Hide replies
India and Pakistan should start dismantling warheads using the fissile nuclear materials inside them for producing power in available nuclear power plants. By doing so, they will not have any power shortage for a hundred thousand years.
Re: Power play
by sportsenthusiast (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 12:18 PM
and so should the US of A.