原文标题：India to outpace China to be No.1 economy by 2050: Report
MUMBAI: India will outpace China to become the world's largest economy by 2050, boasting a GDP of $86 trillion, forecasts a report by global property firm Knight Frank & Citi Private Bank. Leading the elephant's charge will be Mumbai and New Delhi, which will feature in the list of top 20 cities globally within the next 10 years.
Going only by GDP growth, the wealth report says Mumbai and New Delhi will rank among the top 20 global cities in the next decade. While Mumbai is ranked 16th, New Delhi is ranked 20th in the list of cities surveyed in terms of economic activity, political power, quality of life, and knowledge and influence.
The report also named Surat and Nagpur among the fast-growing cities to watch out for by 2050.
"China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2020, which in turn will be overtaken by India in 2050," said the report.
Economic centre of gravity to shift eastward
The US - currently the world's largest economy - is expected to have a GDP of $39.07 trillion by 2050.
In terms of growth from 2010-2050, India would be the second fastest with its economy growing at the rate of 8% annually during the period.
"We believe the cities to watch in 2050 are the 400 emerging market middleweights - fast growing cities with populations between 200,000 and 10 million. This dynamic group includes many cities that are not household names today: Linyi, Kelamayi and Guiyang in China; Surat and Nagpur in India; Concepcion and Belem in Latin America," it said.
Citing calculations by London School of Economics professor Danny Quah, the report predicts that the world's economic centre of gravity, a theoretical measure of focal point of global economic activity based on GDP, will shift eastwards to lie somewhere between China and India. Professor Quah calculated that in 1980, it was in the middle of the Atlantic.
The growing importance of Asia is also reflected in the rise of the super-wealthy population in the region. For the first time, the number of Asians with at least $100 million in disposable assets has overtaken those in North America. "There are now 18,000 centa-millionaires in the region covering South-East Asia, China and Japan. This is more than North America, which has 17,000, and Western Europe with 14,000," the report says.
South-East Asian deca-millionaires (those with $10 million or more in assets) outnumber those in Europe, and are also expected to overtake those in the US in the coming decade.
29 Mar, 2012 01:01 AM
I have serious doubts about this prediction. Stop day dreaming. This will not happen unless corruption goes away. I wish it happens.
Dhiren (Nairobi) replies to sandy
29 Mar, 2012 01:15 AM
China is giving massive aid to emerging countries in Africa, Europe, South America and in return cornering oil, minerals, land, agriclutural commodities etc strategic assets. India is far behind in strategic direction and if anything the gap is widening instead of narrowing.
vetri (Abbotabad) replies to Dhiren
29 Mar, 2012 02:00 AM
India cannot even take care of its own citizens, forget giving aid to other countries.
Sean (Singapore City)
29 Mar, 2012 01:07 AM
Keep Dreaming a$sholes
NRI (Chicago) replies to Sean
29 Mar, 2012 01:21 AM
Whu.. does it bother( threaten) you
Indian (India) replies to NRI
29 Mar, 2012 01:29 AM
Cause he is a chini bhai.
29 Mar, 2012 01:07 AM
Till Lok Sabha is filled with scoundrels, they will let nothing happen.
29 Mar, 2012 01:08 AM
ofcource this will happen.....but its nothing to rejoice about.... it just means the difference or gap between the rich and poor will simply 'widen' Rich-Richer-Richest, Poor-Poorer-Poorest :))
29 Mar, 2012 01:09 AM
and all the NRIs should be banned if when they try to come back then...
Vetri (Abbotabad) replies to Indian
29 Mar, 2012 01:58 AM
NRIs are the main source of Income for India, Indians in India are entangled in corruption. NRIs should stop sending remittance to India, then India will be below Nigeria.
ren (Doha) replies to Indian
29 Mar, 2012 01:38 AM
Dear Indian dont u know that NRI's bring a hell lot of foreign currency to India which in turn enhances our country's development... Jai HInd
Indian (INDIA) replies to ren
29 Mar, 2012 05:19 AM
Bhai i am not against the people who go there due to compulsion,the people who go to Arab nation to get livelihood..i appreciate their remittances(n i ought to)...I understand that our mother India is not developed enough now to fulfil everybody's need...but i really detest those people whom mother India provide enough to study in IITs n IIMs...instead of paying back these looser instead of paying back lecture us of remittances...hahaha...please we dont need your money!! ...we dont need you..we are the 4th largest Economy in the world in terms of PPP...I am the one you NRIs failed to compete with..I will serve my mother INDIA till my last breadth...
Ravi Narayanan (Riyadh) replies to Indian
29 Mar, 2012 08:41 AM
Every 6th person in the world is an Indian. Be happy that some of the Indians have gone out and the cake is much bigger for the people at home. The life of a NRI is not a bed of roses. Many a times, he feels that his Not a Required Indian (back home). I have been in India and out of India and plan to relocate to India. I believe that I am reasonably qualified to comment on this subject as I have seen the best and the worst of both the worlds.
Vijayendra Kumar (Washington DC) replies to Indian
29 Mar, 2012 01:28 AM
Keep dreaming. Let India first start providing basic services to its people, water, sanitation, education, nutrition and health services. India ranks near the bottom of all countries in human development. Forty percent of its children suffer from mal nutrition. Gender ratio is badly skewed wit girls being aborted. It will require a sea change in governance for India to prosper. Some of the increase in GDP is because of population increase, leading to scarcity of water and horrible pollution. Until the government carries out the necessary reforms, India will continue to be an under developed country.
Indian (INDIA) replies to Vijayendra Kumar
29 Mar, 2012 05:45 AM
You will see when Dreams become reality :)
NR India (UK) replies to Indian
29 Mar, 2012 01:28 AM
Why? Is India your personal property? A huge chunk of India's foreign exchange is hard-earned cash remitted by (mostly) manual workers in the middle east and (mostly) professionals and or white collar workers in the West.
True Indian (USA) replies to Indian
29 Mar, 2012 01:27 AM
NRI's are the one who sends money from outside world to inside India, which is partly compensated by all corrupt politicians who sends money from India to outside world. What i mean is education helps. So go get it!
29 Mar, 2012 01:11 AM
Tell what will happen in next 5 years we don't want to know where India will stand in 2050.I am sure if congress rules the country till then i can assure that all the ministers and babus will become multi billionaires but the country will be like Somali
ind (mumbai) replies to Naresh
29 Mar, 2012 01:57 AM
this is people responsibility to vote good on....i think most of the people still not aware about their resp. in india...india grow only if when people thik above their religion and area
29 Mar, 2012 01:15 AM
Mandarin should be made an optional language for all schools in India. It is important to learn that language for future generations to work with Chinese people.
fatema bibi (Dwarka) replies to Indian
29 Mar, 2012 10:12 AM
Let them learn the much more advanced Indian languages. Who will mug up 10000000s of symbols for each and every thing in Mandarin!
29 Mar, 2012 01:15 AM
Large only in terms of size but not in terms of development. India has a long way to go . Illiteracy,poverty and corruption needs to go
29 Mar, 2012 01:15 AM
Lets live in presence and worry about current financial situation of our country then feel happy about India 2050.. and lets also not be surprised on reports coming out of India becoming Most Powerful Nation by 2080.
niyaaz (cape town)
29 Mar, 2012 01:17 AM
what i will like to know is will there still be a planet earth in 2050 as the mayans predicted our demise by the end of this year.
W (SF) replies to niyaaz
29 Mar, 2012 02:34 AM
Mayans couldn't even predict their own demise at the hands of the Spanish. How can they predict the everyone else's demise?
29 Mar, 2012 01:20 AM
INDIA wont be the no1 but the rascal MPs and ministers will surely be trillionaires by then.
29 Mar, 2012 01:22 AM
Dreaming. Delusional Dreaming. I doubt any of these so-called experts have stood in an Indian city and taken a good look around them. I doubt they know how Indians really are.
29 Mar, 2012 01:30 AM
The report is absolutely wrong and has malafide intentions. Indian economy cannot grow without developement of infrastructures. NDA & UPA governments has failed to develop infrastructures and alleviate poverty. Economy cannot grow with inefficient governance of NDA and UPA. Populist measures need to be replaced with non-corrupt developmental and progressive actions from the top. People should be educated to elect educated, incorrupt and non-criminals to law making body who should discharge their duties to serve the purpose of national development from roots-its people and providing them with basic amenities-housing, clothing, jobs, good traffic discipline, elimination religious fanaticisim.
29 Mar, 2012 01:32 AM
ever heard the word "FUNNY" -- HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHha
Dr K (Canada)
29 Mar, 2012 01:32 AM
Provide safe drinking water, clean toilets and fresh air. My motherland sorely lacks in the provision of basic amenities to its citizens and its embarrassing.
Prof. Subbaiah (Portland)
29 Mar, 2012 01:32 AM
These fabrcated studies and reports will nt enhance the performance of the Govt.If corruption is not checked all the wealth frm India will Swiss Banks
29 Mar, 2012 01:41 AM
Just two words, 'BULL SH1T' !!!!
Sushant Kumar (Mosman, Sydney)
29 Mar, 2012 01:42 AM
It is such a familiar headline of your paper for past 40 years that India would become this in 10 years and that in 15 years. We are still there when you first printed this headline.
Proud Indian (Universe)
29 Mar, 2012 01:47 AM
If Indian politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen were not so corrupt we would have outpaced China last year. So true and so sad.
Vetri (Abbotabad) replies to Proud Indian
29 Mar, 2012 01:55 AM
keep Dreaming till Cows come home!
29 Mar, 2012 01:51 AM
Question remains will India remain as it is in the Map, as in last 60 years India in reality has shrunk. What is the guarantee that our Politicians will not sell India to other country. Like how Pakistan has sold part of POK to China.
Truthseeker (Heaven) replies to John
29 Mar, 2012 02:21 AM
This question you should ask to yourselve if you are citizen of India..... if not then do not worry let it on Indian........ any way as an Indian I have firm believe India will become developed nation even before that, and its my duty and work to make it success and watch the evil pepole to not do wrong to my country...... Are you Indian????
Vilander (Chennai) replies to Truthseeker
29 Mar, 2012 04:04 AM
The first step of progress is accepting that there is a problem, you need to see the point in Johns statement that merely questioning his intentions,my brother.
29 Mar, 2012 02:05 AM
Day dreaming is the right word for this article. The editor should filter stories like this before such BS gets published on time of India.
Huzefa Akhter (Vadodara, India)
29 Mar, 2012 02:05 AM
I am from Gujarat and I have seen the change. Place in a far-sighted workacholic leader like "Narendra Modi" and we can overtake China by 2020.
29 Mar, 2012 02:07 AM
Keep on dreaming guys. In 1988 they projected in 2002 India will be superpower. Whole country is corrupted at all levels, so it will not happen in another 500 years.
Sonia Ka Manmohan (Delhi)
29 Mar, 2012 02:12 AM
And Bangaldesh will overtake India in 3012. In 3070 Bangaldesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Nepal will be the four richest countries in the world.... WTF! All these reports serve no purpose but to please different groups of people.
Gaurav Nagar (Ohio, US)
29 Mar, 2012 02:14 AM
There are so many assumptions in this article that i do not even know where to start. The most glaring assumption is that the economy would continue to grow at the present rate for another 40 yrs. It is impossible unless the education system and healthcare system matches the best in the world. At least 20-30 percent of the nation would need to have the intellectual capability of some of the scholars we see in the IITs and Government Medical Schools. Right now they are less than 1% and many of them are still immigrating. Government needs to take proactive measures to stop/reverse brain drain.
29 Mar, 2012 02:16 AM
Keep dreaming......Not sure when they will stop all these predictions and start work
29 Mar, 2012 02:21 AM
Its total nonsense.We are nowhere near china.We are atleast 50 years behind.All world powers do not give any importance to india when compared to china.The chinese are miles ahead in every field and by 2050 it will be the most advanced and leading power. We as a nation simply do not have the discipline, commitment like the chnese.
29 Mar, 2012 02:22 AM
It is only a theoretical analysis. The analyst did not consider the particle aspect such as corruption, politics, poverty, etc. When these factors play in then the numbers are going to be lot different. Having said that it is not impossible! To start, get rid of the dirty politicians and put qualification requirements. No dacoits, rouges, criminals, uneducated brutes! Minimum graduates with at least 75% IQ. Hang on! What am I hoping??? I may have gone insane!!!! Need a refreshment.
29 Mar, 2012 02:23 AM
Man...why do we have to wait 48 years from now!!!! If we get rid of the corruption in our country..we can surely achieve it in 10 years...Jai Hind
Satyam Vadam (Satya Nagri)
29 Mar, 2012 02:23 AM
Day dreaming... no way India or China can ever over take US economy, 2050 is just another 38 years from now and there are no sign of this happening. In my wildest dream i can dream about China being a largest economy, but then again Chinese economy is not transparent to world. And for India it is just not possible, due to lack of infrastructure, population and corruption everywhere. Indian will have huge huge shortage of power, land, food grains and water in next 20 years just to support their domestic demand.
US was largest economy, US is largest economy and US will be largest economy in 2050. Because part of Indian and Chinese economy are based on their export of natural resources like minerals etc... where as US has never used any of it's own natural resources up to today, they import every single thing from the world and keep their resources intact. Chinese economy is more then 70% dependent on the world outside china, where Indian economy has similar dependency about 50%. simply a false report or may be a wrong interpretation of report is printed here.
A.K. Guha (Noida)
29 Mar, 2012 02:24 AM
Several years ago a figure of 2015 was quoted! How come these figures keep advancing? In my opinion our economy is more solid than that of China's and we are the third strongest military power after Russia and the U.S.
Ravi (UK) replies to A.K. Guha
29 Mar, 2012 03:06 AM
You are deluded and do not read nearly enough material and data. Militarily China has a standing army of 2 million men where as India has a standing army of 1 million. China's military is more technologically advanced and almost completely modernized also. China has reserves of over $2 Trillion and growing fast, whereas India has reserves of around $300 Billion and decreasing. But take any economic indicator you care to choose and you will find the Chinese have better figures, including debt-to-GDP ratio, ppp, per capita, strength of currency (Yuan vs Rupee) etc.
Neutral (Indian Origin)
29 Mar, 2012 02:32 AM
wheather 2050 or now. What difference will it make in the gap between rich and poor. Will it stop people dying from hunger, burnt to death for lack of dowry etc etc.? Implementation of 100% Law & Order is more important to live in peace than becoming richest economy.
But how about the 70 percent who defecate in the open or live on less than 32 rs. a day? In last 10 years, my expensive house has been surrounded by more slums. It is just unlivable with open sewers. Govt has not done anything for me and my family
Pavan (World) replies to Arjun
overall economy not GDP per capita
Oracular Man (Glendale, California)
Has anybody stopped to think that this BS talk about No.1 economy does not make the countries rich even if they are the No.1 economy. The fact is even if China is the No.1 economy in the next 5-10 years it will be a poor country. And if India is the No.1 economy by 2015, it will still continue to be a poor country. I am saying so purely from an economic stand point. Please use your head and not heart while understanding the words aforementioned. I fail to understand what the media is trying to highlight by saying India is going to be worlds No.1 economy by 2050. It is going to still be a country with lots of poor people whose needs need to be met starting now!
Canadian (Big white) replies to Oracular Man
Agree - by 2050 Indian pouplation will be close to 2.5 billions and the country will not be able to sustain itself. Quality of life will be worse then today
india is a country of the future... and will always remain.... Keep dreaming
bring back all the black money stashed away in foreign banks, disclose the gold/silver mines that are concealed in bank lockers, bulldoze the mafia (land/liquor); India will be the super power, today at this moment for sure!
We are already NO 1 in BLACK ECONOMY. Good to know that by 2050 even PEOPLE of INDIA will also get Rich. Real or Speculation but good to know
An unresting hand, a free computer access and a stupid brain -no end to these type of articles. Past is gone, Present is a Gift and Future is a mystery. Who knows where will be India??
Amit (New Delhi)
earlier it was published that by 2020 India will overtake China; Now this says 2050. Guess by the time we reach 2050, it will be 3050..Hypocrites
Chandan Barua (Singapore)
Earlier I believe this date was 2015 now they shifted it further.
ahairynavel (bythebelly) replies to Chandan Barua
Its always a moving target...hence
Keep dreaming........... Or make your population 10 times the China's and may be only then you can supass China with one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world! And that means India remains the same 3rd World dump as usual forever!
Its not 2050 I think its 3050.
Mizoram) replies to Zak
It's 5020 dear...
anand (Ahmedabad) replies to cris
ha ha (ha ha)
Biggest joke ever heard.This news made my day.how many universities in India is in top 500 list in this world.
hahahahaha first I use to hear 2025 and now they say 2050 and then they will add again 25 and the saga continues.... forget world no 1 first get rid of corruption and poverty with in India and think of providing all basic stuff to citizensss... Wake up guys.... dont get fooled by such headlines and promises long way to go
Ha, ha, ha, ha. Very amusing. Mazaa aa gaya. I think this report will get the top honours in Comedy Circus. Hey, at least we know how to keep ourselves happy.
Namrata (New York)
India generates 7 million jobs a year during its peak gdb growth, in the next 10 years 300 million people will come into the job market and with productivity increasing and machines replacing most of the industries, how are you going to provide so many jobs, western countries started restricting immigration - in 10 years we will have major food and water shortage - you will see more social problems like riots and anarchy - you better get out b4 it gets worse
As long as fake Gandhi families exist in India our country will never become number one
AB (India's Good economy is still worst than USA's worst economy)
Do you know how many people will still be defecating in the open by 2050. where the corruption would be since there will be more money so more to bribe to get the things done. India is good for only one and one thing and that is Indian Food.
aditya (bharat) replies to AB
People defecating in open is good for the agriculture...go n read some basic books u ignorant
Prakash (Sydney, Australia)
I think the writers of this report need to go back to primary school to learn the basic mathematics. Even if the Indian economy grew consistently at 8% each and every year from now until 2050 then the Indian economy would be 20.1 times its current GDP. The current GDP at 2 Trillion, this will equate to about 40 Trillion and not the rubbery figure of 86 Trillion as suggested in this report. It does not cost anything to be day dreaming!!!
Rahul (Delhi) replies to Prakash
You need to go back to your school. Compounding and Inflation you are going to put in your ass.Have you ever read business and economics, first read then comment.
chamara silva (Chamari ka doodh piya hai)
all people with negative comments are losers.. lol you are the real bloodsuckers....jao usa or e.u....just get lost...
No, 86 trillion will be India's population
Kumar Swamy (Chicago)
Yes India will be #1 Corrupt Country in 2030.
Jokes of this sort should not be published, and the Govt must take action against media for publishing irresponsible stories in the media. If need be the concerned people must be arrested and detained.