三泰虎

巴基斯坦防卫论坛:有关印度人口超过中国人口的讨论

一名国人在巴基斯坦发表了一篇题为《印度人口将在2021年超过中国》的贴子,他在贴子中列出了中国和印度这两个世界上人口最多国家的主要数据的对比,并得出自己的结论,认为印度人口将在2012年超过中国。贴子引来不少印度网民的回复。有的印度网民表示希望印度经济和人口一起超过中国;有的印度网民表示印度人口不用等到2021年就会超过中国。讨论较为热烈,遗憾地是“楼”歪到了有关1962年中印战争的论战,引起了一群印度网民和一名看似假美国人的辩论。

原贴标题:India will overtake China in 2021
原帖链接:http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/192336-india-will-overtake-china-2021-a.html




印度人口什么时候超过中国人口

xuxu1457(中国)
Here’s a comparison of some key numbers from the world’s two most populous nations:

SIZE

IN 2011

China: 1,339,724,852 India: 1,210,193,422

The difference: Almost 130 million. But because India is growing so much faster than China (see below), it is expected to become the world’s most populous nation in another two decades.

DECADAL GROWTH

China: 73.9 million (5.84%) India: 181 million (17.64%)

year growth:

China: 0.57% India: 1.64%

MEN PER 100 WOMEN

China: 105 India: 106

YOUTH

China (0-14): 222,459,737 India (0-6): 158,789,287

The youth population numbers aren’t directly comparable yet but it’s clear even from this data that India’s 0-14 population is higher than China’s. Indian projections from 2006 suggested that population would be around 346,942,000. The actual numbers may be a little higher than that since the project put India’s 2011 population at 1,192,507,000, lower than it turned out to be. Some experts are saying that it’s now time for China to reverse its one-child policy.

LITERACY (%)

China: 95.92 India: 74.04

In 2021,the population of India will overtake China:
China: 1.4179billion 1.4237billion

For me, welcome Indian overtake China in population, breathe a sigh of relief;

what's your opinion??

以下是世界上两个人口最多国家的主要数据的对比:

2011年的人口规模

中国:1339724852

印度:1210193422

区别:几乎都是13亿,由于印度人口增长速度远远快于中国,预计在二十年内成为世界上人口最多的国家。

十年内增加的人口

中国:7390万人(增长5.84%)

印度:1.81亿人(增长17.64%)

年增幅

中国:0.57%

印度:1.64%

每100个女性对应的男性人数

中国:105

印度:106

青少年人口数

中国(0-14):2.22459737亿

印度(0-6):1.58789287亿

青少年人口数不能直接比较,但是可以从数据清楚看到印度0到14岁的人口比中国更多。印度2006年的预测该年龄段人口是3.46972000亿人。实际数据可能会更高一点,因为2011年的人口预测是11.92507000亿人,比实际结果更低。一些专家表示中国是时候改变一胎政策。

识字率

中国:95.92%

印度:74.04%

在2021年,印度人口将超过中国

中国:14.179亿

印度:14.237亿

对于我来说,欢迎印度在人口方面超过中国,松一口气

你对此有何看法?

以下是巴基斯坦防卫论坛读者的评论:



CarbonD(英国)
Both India and China need to produce more women and stop female foeticide. Or else men will remain virgins and population of gay populations would increase and the countries would be renames as gay countries and take the title away from argentina
here is my opinion

印度和中国该多生一点女孩,停止流掉女婴。否者,男人仍会保留处子之身,男同性恋人数会增多,国家会改名为同性恋国家,会把阿根廷的头衔夺走。

这就是我的观点。

illusion8(印度)
We certainly need to do a lot more on the Literacy part and female foeticide is criminal - time to bring in very strong punishable laws for the killers of the female child. Population is definitely a problem - but cannot right away see a solution for that.

我们在识字率方面还有很多事情需要做,流掉女婴是犯罪,该引入强大的法律,惩罚那些谋杀女婴的人。人口肯定是一个问题,但无法立刻找到解决办法。

Fanling Monk(香港)
I call for China to retain the 'most populous country' title and abolishes the one-child policy. Let's go to work to produce more baby girl now!

我呼吁中国保住“人口最多国家”的头衔,废除一胎政策。让我们加把劲多生点女孩吧!

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Luffy 500(孟加拉国)
I believe that's the right way to go for china.China should learn from EU and Japan about the effect of a decreasing population. Are there some serious talk in china among policy makers about this problem?


我认为此举是适合中国的正确方法。中国应该从欧美和日本那里吸取人口减少所带来的影响的教训。中国政策决策者是否有就该问题举行严肃讨论?



Akash A(印度)
Hehe i was just wondering if somehow Indians around the world would come back and settle in India then i bet we will touch that 1.4237 billion people mark today itself
Hell why have we reproduced so much ??
Same goes with China

呵呵,我只是在纳闷,要是世界各地的印度人回到印度定居,那么我确信印度今天就会达到14.237亿人。我们究竟生这么多干嘛?中国也是如此。

regular(巴基斯坦)
What more we can expect from India??? but the uncontrollable Population Bomb........

我们还能从印度那里期望什么?不就是不可控的人口炸弹...

Tumba(印度)
this genius doesnt know Pakistan had double the population growth rate of India ...


这名“天才”不知道巴基斯坦的人口增长速度是印度的两倍...



Markus(印度)
Now that I am going to get married very soon, I dont think India will have to wait till 2021 to overtake China.

由于我很快就要结婚了,我认为印度不需要等到2021年就可以超过中国。

Akash A.(印度)
Acha j baat
Then best of luck


祝你好运


xuxu1457(中国)
yea, depend on your working hard to make more babies


sounds Chinese and Indian ate all happy on the thing


this is the first time China loose the population No.1 in human history


就靠你努力生更多孩子了


似乎中国人和印度人乐于这样做。


在人类历史上,中国将首次丢失人口第一大国的头衔。



tvsram1992(印度)
Indian population and economy will over take China together

印度人口和经济将一起超过中国。

IND151(印度)
^^ i don't think Indian economy will overtake Chinese economy before 2050

我认为印度经济在2050年前不会超过中国经济。

Boson(印度)
It's a good practive to Never say Never.


If CPC continue to be the govt, in China.... Indian economy won't overtake the "stated value" of chinese economy by 2050. But just so...


And if a revolution hits china .... only then one can assess the state of china's economy today. They are piling up plenty of $hit under the carpet.


In 1985, did you expect India to have a larger economy than Russia's or Soviet Union.


“永不言不”才是好的做法。


如果土共继续执掌中国,那么从名义价值来看,印度经济在2050年前不会超过中国经济...


如果革命袭击中国,人们到时候才能评估中国今天的经济状况。他们掩藏了太多不可告人的事情。


在1985年,你不会期望印度经济会超过俄罗斯或者苏联的经济。


tvsram1992(印度)
so as population ...
one wrong move by china in scs can bring down china


人口也是...


中国走错一步,满盘皆输。



Skyline(斯里兰卡)
It's so annoying when cities are over crowded...

城市变得过度拥挤实在太烦人...

Tumba(印度)
Major Cities will always be overcrowded ... you can check the density in all major cities ...


大城市一直过度拥挤...你可以查一查各大城市的人口密度...



nick_indian(印度)
I am worried to be honest , India's population is expected to hit 1.65-1.70 billion before declining . I don't know where we are going to fit these additional 450-500 million Indians .

老实说,我担心印度人口在下降前预计会达到16.5亿至17亿人。我不知道我们要把额外的4.5亿至5亿印度人往哪里塞。

IND151(印度)
we are also ahead of them in milk production and enjoy stats of No.1 milk producing nation in world


我们的牛奶产量也领先中国,享受世界第一牛奶生产大国的美誉。



danger007(印度)
Yes India will overtake china.....china is forcefully decreasing their population by officially killing second child in the women womb...... whereas India don't have such kinda policy...... chinese people is lucky because even they want second child, their govn will not give such freedom...... all hail.... and looney toons always cheer-leading for such idiotic threads.....

是的,印度(人口)会超过中国...中国通过杀死子宫里的第二个孩子强迫人口减少...而印度没有此类政策...中国人是“幸运”的,因为即使他们想要第二个孩子,政府也不会给他们生孩子的自由...欢呼吧......

Martian2(美国)
Indian population size is a detriment

When India surpasses China in overall population, it will be a meaningless event.

1. Population size is no longer correlated with GDP size. China's GDP is currently five times the Indian GDP and the gap is growing larger. By 2021, I expect China's nominal GDP differential with India to increase to about 7 to 1.

2. The increase in Indian population is good for China strategically. The Indian government lacks the resources to provide basic services for its people. Hence, instead of 500 million well-educated and well-fed Indians, we have 1.2 billion Indians without access to clean water or sufficient food.

3. All of these Indians without jobs are paralyzing the Indian government's ability to govern. For example, the Indian government dare not cut its subsidies for gasoline or cooking oil. These subsidies will keep growing larger as the population increases and drain the Indian government's budget.

India has to choose whether to devote its scarce resources to subsidies (and feed its people) or build highways. It can't do both. The growing Indian population will delay India's modernization of its infrastructure by decades.

4. The PLA is mechanized. Carpet bombing one million or ten million Indian soldiers makes no difference. It is the level of military technology and deployment that is important. The number of warm bodies as targets is irrelevant to a mechanized army.

印度人口规模是个不利之处。

印度人口超过中国人口将是一件毫无意义的事。

1、人口规模和GDP规模不存在一一对应的关系。中国目前的GDP是印度的5倍。差距还在扩大。在2021年前,我预计中国和印度的名义GDP差距将增至大约7比1。

2、从战略上说,印度人口增加对中国是有好处的。印度政府缺乏为其人民提供基本服务的资源。因此,印度不会有5亿受过良好教育和营养充足的印度人,而是有12亿不能享受干净饮用水或者充足食物的印度人。

3、没有工作的印度人会让印度政府的管理陷入瘫痪。比如,印度政府不敢削减汽油补贴或者食用油补贴。随着人口的不断增多,这些补贴会持续增多,将耗尽印度政府的预算。

印度必须做出选择,是把稀有资源用于补贴和养活人民还是修建高速公路。两者不能兼顾。不断增多的印度人口将让其基础设施现代化拖延数十年。

4、PLA已经机械化。地毯式轰炸100万人或者1000万人没有什么不同。军队技术水平和部署才是重要的。对于机械化的军队来说,散发着体温的人体数量是无足轻重的。

Zabaniya(孟加拉国)
I do not know how that point it relevant to the topic.


Anyways, how much do you think the PLA has experience in mountain warfare? Because that really counts. Technology is not the sole determinant of victory.


我不知道最后一点与话题有什么关联。


不管怎么说,你认为PLA有多少山地战的经验?因此这点真的很重要。技术不是获胜的唯一决定因素。


原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com


Tumba(印度)
PLA dont have much technical edge over Indian Military ... and the edge they have in quantity ... will be negated by the Himalayan Terran ... it doesnt matter how much quantity PLA has over Indian Military ... there is no way PLA can push over Indian Military in Himalayas ... PLA will be annihilated if it ever tries to Invade .. this is no 62' where human wave tactic will work .. and there is no chance china will find 8:1 numerical superiority now ... so stop posting crap ...


PLA对印度军队没有多少技术优势...他们所拥有的数量优势会被喜马拉雅山地形抵消...PLA对印度军队有多少数量优势并不重要...他们无法在喜马拉雅山地区压倒印度军队...如果胆敢入侵,那么PLA会被废掉...现在不是人海战术能起作用的1962年...中国没有机会再打8比1数量优势那样的仗了...所以,停止发表垃圾评论...


Martian2(美国)
PLA moved its howitzers from the Taiwan sector to pound the Indian army in 1962.


Next time, the PLA will use a lot more than just howitzers.


To start, the PLA will use ballistic and cruise missiles. Then comes the 400km MLRS. China will probably use its air power this time, which will include fleets of WZ-10 attack helicopters. It's going to get a lot uglier for the Indian solider on the receiving end of Chinese firepower.


1962年,PLA从(达旺?台湾?)拉来榴弹炮,猛轰印度军队。


PLA下一次会使用多得多的榴弹炮。


一开始,PLA会使用弹道导弹和巡航导弹,随后是射程400公里的多管火箭炮。中国这次很可能会使用空军,包括武直-10攻击直升机机队。在中国火力的攻击下,印度士兵会变得更加难堪。


Tumba(印度)
the problem is Indian Military has already moved the stuff there ... you wont be getting roses in response ...


here is the history lessons for you :


1962


PLA Advantages:


Element of Surprise
8:1 Numerical Ratio
Tech Edge
Pacifist Govt Sitting in Delhi
India a founding member of NAM (No foreign support)
Indian Air Force Taken out of equation


still in the end PLA knew in a long drawn war they can not hold Arunachal as their supply lines are too stretched up so they left


2012:


PLA Disadvantages


No Element of Surprise (Large number of recon planes, sattelites and Intelligence)
No Numerical Superiority Over Indian Military in Himalayas
No real tech. edge over Indian Military
Indian Army bunker-ed in Himalayan border lines
India is not a part of NAM (has friendly relations will almost all major powers)
Free Media wont let Indian Govt go pacifist in case of War
Indian supply lines much nearer to bunker-ed troops based in Himalayas


Case closed : PLA invades PLA suffers Chinese resents CCP crashs


问题是印度军队已经把家伙运到那里了...你们得到的回复将是猛烈的..


以下是给你准备的历史教训:


1962年


PLA的优势:


1、突袭因素


2、8:1的数量优势


3、技术优势


4、新德里的非战主义政府


5、印度是不结盟运动的创始成员国(没有外国支持)


6、印度空军没有参战


结果,由于供给线拉得太长,PLA知道无法打持久战以保住阿鲁纳恰尔邦,所以他们离开了。


2012年:


PLA的劣势


1、没有突袭的因素(因为有大量的侦查飞机、卫星和情报)


2、在喜马拉雅地区对印度没有数量优势


3、没有真正的技术优势


4、印度军队在喜马拉雅边界线修建掩体


5、印度不是不结盟运动的成员(几乎与所有大国有友好关系)


6、自由的媒体不会让印度政府在战时走非战主义路线


7、印度针对喜马拉雅山地区部署的部队的供给线要近得多


结论:PLA入侵,PLA尝苦果,中国人心生厌恨,土共奔溃


Tumba(印度)
if India would have fought with all her might in 62' there wont be any Tibet Autonomous region in PRC .. but a Free Tibet bordering Republic Of China ...


如果印度1962年全力以赴,那么PRC就不会有西藏自治区...而是会出现一个与中国接壤的自游西藏。


Tumba(印度)
you know during 62' war .. i met a chinese soldier in Arunachal .. and there he told me that we are weak, hungry out of ammunition and cant fight more so we will run back and after couple of days PLA ran with their tails between their legs ... i dont remember the name of that chinese soldier ... let me check i have stored that on my iCloud in iPad 4 in 62'.... ummmm nope not able to find.. the cloud server might have crashed ...


你知道吗,在1962年中印战争期间,我在阿鲁纳恰尔邦碰到一名中国士兵,他对我这样说,即“我们太弱了,缺乏弹药,无法再打下去,所以我们会跑回去”。几天后,PLA就夹着尾巴跑了...我不记得那名中国士兵的名字了...让我看看是否存在了我iPad的云存储里...umm...没有,没发现...可能云服务器奔溃了...


Zabaniya(孟加拉国)
You forgot to mention the cold. Cold can be rather unforgiving. Or does PLA and IA already have powered combat suits?


你忘了提寒冷天气。寒冷是相当无情的。PLA和印度军队是否有保暖战斗装?


Tumba(印度)
forget about the cold ... think about the oxygen ... almost all of Line of Actual control between India and Occupied Tibet is 4000 Meter and above ... if you walk for a mile uphill with some load... you will pass out ... and in the supplies soldiers carry they take Rum in place of Water ... here the cold factor comes... in -5 to -50 Degree centigrade only Rum works


别提寒冷...考虑氧气吧...印度和被占领的西藏之间的实际控制线几乎都是海拔4000米以上...如果你负载爬山一英里,那么你会昏倒。士兵随身带的补给是朗姆酒,而不是水...这里主要考虑寒冷天气的因素,在零下5摄氏度至零下50摄氏度里,只有朗姆酒有御寒效果。


Rajaraja Chola(印度)
All its might? All u were capable was killing a bunch of unarmed poor soldiers.. When real soldiers arrived, u guys fleed..


所有实力?你们擅长的只是杀害一群没有武装的可怜士兵。当真正的士兵到来时,你们这些家伙却逃跑了...


danger007(印度)
martian why did you came to planet..... are you calculating according to chinese maths or mars???? ...
please come to chinese flag..... i feel disgusting some times.... when you are bashing USA while keeping USA flag......


@ on topic: How you are claiming India will have 1.2 billion people in poverty whereas poverty declining gradually ........ just stfu,,,,,,


martian,为什么你要来到地球...你是按照中国人的数学来计算的吗?


请用你的中国国旗...你抨击美国的时候用美国国旗,我有时候会感到作呕...


回到话题上来:印度穷人在逐渐减少,你又怎么会声称印度会有12亿穷人...


Martian2(美国)
If you mark the Indian rupee to the current market exchange rate, the per-capita Indian GDP is about $1,200 U.S. dollars. Poverty is not declining when you factor in inflation or when you look at the absolute number of poor Indians.


Indian 2011 GDP was 77 trillion rupees.


77 trillion rupees / 54.48 rupees per U.S. dollar = 1.413 trillion U.S. dollars


1.413 trillion U.S. dollars / 1.2 billion Indians = $1,187 Indian per-capita GDP


就以印度卢比的现行汇率来算,印度人均GDP大约是1200美元。如果把通货膨胀考虑进来或者你看印度穷人的绝对数量,那么贫穷并没有减少。


印度2011年的GDP是77万亿卢比。


77万亿卢比/54.48卢比兑美元汇率=1.413万亿美元。


1.413万亿美元/12亿印度人=1187美元每个印度人



Matrixx(印度)
Atleast we can beat China in this area

我们至少可以在人口方面打败中国。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Holmes(印度)
Not only in that, in everything...Every single field. China's time is up. it already is an aging population.
Besides that it's agenda is to take over neighbors territories and bully them.
With slowing economy and poor demographics china won't even stand a chance to win.
No way we're going to loose out them


不仅如此,在每个领域,中国时代都快结束了。它的人口已经在老化。此外,中国的动机是占领领国土地,欺负他们。


随着经济放缓和人口结构恶化,中国一点获胜的机会都没有。


我们不可能会输给他们的。



zip(尼泊尔)
I used to hate overpopulated society around me ..thought to never have a baby for myself ..now marriage is around i want a little baby doll for myself .. Feel too selfish for myself

我以前讨厌人口过多的社会...抱有从来不会要小孩的想法...现在快结婚了,我想要一个玩具娃娃...感觉自己太自私了。

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