从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

西方专家:印度未来五年会比中国发展更快

2012-06-21 20:28 32个评论 字号:

印度金融产品的渗透率仍然很低。英国最大的资产管理公司施罗德投资管理公司认为印度是一个重要的市场,最近购买了印度Axis资产管理公司25%的股份。全球股票业务负责人Kenneth Lambden和全球新兴市场股票业务负责人Allan Conway在一次接受采访中谈了对印度股市的看法、印度市场面临的挑战和印度投资者该如何投资,并且称即使存在这样那样的问题,印度在未来五年也会比中国发展更快,并且发展势头会继续下去。

原文标题:’India will grow faster than China’
原文链接:http://www.rediff.com/business/report/inter-india-will-grow-faster-than-china/20120620.htm

西方专家:印度经济将超过中国

印度将超过中国?(三泰虎配图)

The penetration of financial products remains poor in India. The UK’s largest asset manager, Schroder Investment Management, recently bought 25 per cent stake in Axis AMC and sees India as a significant market.

Kenneth Lambden, its global head of equities, and Allan Conway, head of global emerging market equities, explain their thinking and their views on what Indian investors should do. Edited excerpts from an interview with Chandan Kishore Kant:

What are your views about Indian equities as the world faces tumultuous times?

Conway: India, for foreigners, has always been a difficult market. It is more trading-orientated, with a larger retail component, which is much more volatile. Also, partly because of that (larger retail), valuation has always been very high. So, India has always looked relatively expensive. Even today, India is trading at a significant premium to other emerging markets. Contrast that with China, which is at a 10 per cent discount.

印度金融产品的渗透率仍然很低。英国最大的资产管理公司施罗德投资管理公司认为印度是一个重要的市场,最近购买了印度Axis资产管理公司25%的股份。

全球股票业务负责人Kenneth Lambden和全球新兴市场股票业务负责人Allan Conway解释了印度投资者该如何投资的看法和观点。以下是Chandan Kishore Kant对他们采访的节选:

世界正处于混乱时代,你是如何看印度股市的?

Conway:对于外国人来说,印度总是个艰难市场,更多是个贸易导向型市场,零售成分更大,稳定性要低得多。此外,也正因为零售成分更大,估价总是非常高。所以,印度总是看起来相对昂贵。甚至在今天,印度的市盈率高于其他新兴市场。相比起来,中国的市盈率低10%。

What challenges do you see in Indian markets?

The politics has got in a way which has not enabled the lift one would expect. For instance, in infrastructure, where India has never spent as much as it should, there should be a spending of 40-plus per cent of its GDP.

Unless India puts money in infrastructure, how would growth be achieved? In addition, India has got its macro economic concerns – inflation, fiscal (issues) and high interest rates. Unless those are addressed, the economy would not achieve its potential. It’s quite a frustrating market and we are currently underweight.

You counted so many negatives. But what still attracted you to India?

1.2 billion Indian people, with fantastic demographics. China has got a prematurely ageing population. India is a classic emerging market, which, with economic liberalisation, has unleashed a prolonged period of rapid economic growth.

There is no reason why India should not see a prolonged period of growing at seven-eight per cent per annum. We would expect in the next five years, even with the issues I mentioned, India will be growing faster than China. And, that premium growth will be sustainable for 10-plus years at least.

It’s a typical cycle for an emerging country. It has not quite happened yet for some of the blockages but these are not rocket science to address. When you do get that political will and address those underlying issues, then unleash that potential, we should see that prolonged period of massive growth. That’s why India is such an exciting market for us to be involved in, and we are here.

你认为印度市场的挑战是什么?

政治没有让印度市场提高到人们期望的水平。比如在基础设施方面,印度一直投资不足,这方面的投资应该占GDP的40%以上。

除非印度把钱投入基础设施上,否则如何才能取得发展?此外,印度有宏观经济担忧:通货膨胀、财政问题和高利率。除非这些问题解决,否则经济无法释放出潜能。印度市场是一个令人沮丧的市场,我们目前认为其分量还不够。

你说了那么多负面问题,不过是什么吸引你来到印度?

12亿印度人,奇妙的人口结构。中国过早人口老龄化。印度是个典型的新兴市场,经济自由化,已经释放了一波长期的快速经济发展。

没有理由印度不会出现年均7%至8%的长期经济发展。我们预计即使存在我提到的那些问题,印度在未来五年也会比中国发展更快。这样的增长将至少持续十年以上。

这是新兴市场的典型周期。由于某些障碍,它还没有发生,但是这些障碍不是什么火箭科学那么难以解决的问题。当你获得政治意志并解决这些潜在问题后,潜能就会释放,我们应该会看到长期的大规模发展。这就是我们要涉足印度这个令人激动的市场的原因。我们现在来到了这里。

Despite having 1.2 billion people, the penetration of financial products is miserably poor in India…

Conway: That’s the opportunity.

Lambden: And, that’s why we are here. This is what an emerging market is all about. It’s education and economic liberalisation. It is taking longer in India than it should be taking. But the potential is huge.

The process India needs to go through is a well-trodden path; the policy prescription required is well known. It’s just been not applied as comprehensively as it should. It is, to a certain extent, but is not being embraced in its entirety, that would unleash the massive economic power.

Should Indian investors be reading deep into what’s happening in Europe?

Lambden: Indian investors should only look at emerging markets. Invest in emerging markets and forget about Europe. You have got a choice; to look at emerging or look at submerging.

虽然有12亿人,但是印度金融产品的渗透率低得可怜…

Conway:这是个机会。

Lambden:那就是我们来到这里的原因。新兴市场不都就是这样的情况。教育和经济要自由化。在印度需要的时间要比通常情况下更长,但是潜能是巨大的。

印度要走的是一个已经铺好的路。众所周知,政策是必须要有的,还没有贯彻得足够全面。从某种程度上说,并没有得到完全拥护,否则会释放出大规模的经济能量。

印度投资者是否应该深入解读欧洲正发生的事情?

Lambden:印度投资者应该只关注新兴市场。在新兴市场投资,忘了欧洲吧。你有一个选择,是关注新兴市场还是关注“沉没”市场。

以下是印度网民的评论:

China has a bleak future
by Gurjot Singh (View MyPage) on Jun 21, 2012 01:33 AM | Hide replies

China’s population will continue to shrink. Even if they get rid of forced sterilization and abortion to maintain once child policy, the cannot reverse the trend. Women never go back to having more kids than their mothers as child bearing and rearing is a very demanding process for modern women.

Also, India has freedom and democracy whereas chinese are enslaved by the communist party. It is potentially a heap of gun powder ready explore at any time.

中国人口在继续萎缩。即使他们摆脱强制绝育和流产,也不能扭转趋势。生儿育女对于现代女性来说是个非常艰巨的过程。她们永远不会比母亲生更多的孩子。

此外,印度有自由和皿煮,而中国人是共产奴隶。这是随时会引爆的火药桶。

Re: China has a bleak future
by Suraj Kumar (View MyPage) on Jun 21, 2012 01:55 AM

“India has freedom and democracy”?

Are you tight?

Please get your head examined by a qualified psychiatrist.

“印度有自由和皿煮”?

你脑子僵掉了?

让有资质的精神病医生给你检查下头脑吧。

Re: Re: China has a bleak future
by toga (View MyPage) on Jun 21, 2012 08:45 AM
freedom to shiet in public, yes.

是在公众场所自由“便便”的权利。

Lie
by Suraj Kumar (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 11:57 PM

This statement is an outright lie.

This lie is being spread by investment bankers and brokers in collusion with U P A government to cheat foreign investors.

India and its economy is an elaborate Ponzi scheme which can collapse at any time.

It is propped up by such lies.

The same thing happened in 2008 and then the bottom fell out.

So Beware.

这个声明是个彻头彻尾的谎言,是投资银行和经纪人串通国民进步联盟政府,为了欺骗外国投资者而散布的谎言。

印度及其经济是个庞氏骗局,随时会瓦解。目前由此类谎言支撑着。同样的事情发生在2008年,当时露馅了。所以小心点。

(三泰虎注:庞氏骗局是指骗人向虚设的企业投资,以后来投资者的钱作为快速盈利付给最初投资者以诱使更多人上当)

overtaking china
by saju john (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 09:11 PM | Hide replies

India will grow faster than china only in population and corruption

印度只有在人口和腐败上才比中国发展更快。

india is a superpower
by balabala (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 08:59 PM | Hide replies

india is a superpower and nobody an can lag india behind..indian military is the strongest among ever country..and indian technology is very advanced..chinese technology is fake,so can only copy from india and USA ,ect..so it is necessary worry about china ..indian are happier than chinese..they can can’t criticize govt or they will be killed(that’s the most funny story i have heard)on the contray ,india can pee everywhere and don,t need act on govt’s plan…chinese is so pathetic

印度是个超级大国,没人可以把印度甩在后面…印度军队是所有国家中最强大的。印度技术非常先进。中国技术是假的,只能山寨印度和美国…印度人比中国人更幸福…他们不能批评政府,否则会被杀掉(这是我听过的最滑稽的故事)。印度人可以随地小便,不必按照政府的计划行事…中国人太可悲了。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

David Dak
Re: india is a superpower
by David Dak (View MyPage) on Jun 21, 2012 06:08 AM
“india can pee everywhere and don,t need act on govt’s plan…chinese is so pathetic”

jees, you guys can pee at any where? How unhuman and pathetic is this? Even pets know where to pee.

“印度人可以随地小便,不必按照政府的计划行事…中国人太可悲了”.

哎呀,你们这些家伙可以随地小便?多么野蛮,多么可悲啊。连宠物都知道在哪里小便。

Yes,
by Ram Singh (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 08:45 PM

But only under ModiJis governance. Vote for him in next election and see the change Gujraat have seen.

是的,不过只有在穆迪统治下才会发生。下次选举投票给他吧,看看古吉拉特邦发生的改变。

Yawn! Rediff has been talking about the thing many many times
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 04:08 PM

Why talk about things that never happen?

Rediff已经讨论这个话题很多次了。为什么要讨论永远不会发生的事情?

rediff for gods sake
by nothingtohide (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 03:15 PM

this the nth time we are discussing same topic..pl do away with it..both countries do not match except population all other things are different and cant be compared

这是我们第N次讨论同样的话题了。请避开这个话题吧…除了在人口方面,两国之间没得比。所有其他事情都不同,没法相提并论。

‘India will grow faster than China’…..
by KKG gangadharan (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 02:44 PM

HHaaaahaa… hhhahaa.. in population??? Are you having a magic stick ??? Man ! it need hardwork without corruption ??? Are you ready for it ??? Don’t put this type of heading !!!!

印度将比中国发展更快…哈哈…是说人口吗?难道你有魔棒?老兄,我们需要的是没有腐败的勤劳工作。你们准备好了吗?不要起这类标题!

Rich and Poor have just degr
by Amit Sharma (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 08:41 PM

‘Rich’ Standard and Poor have just degraded India stating the congress setup as the cause and yoy say it will outpace China??

标准普尔刚刚把印度降级,称国大党政府是起因,你们却说印度发展速度会超过中国?

Joke of the day….
by kuldip bhatt (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 08:01 PM

Enjoy guys…

今日笑话…各位就乐着去吧…

Growth???
by krazy (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 04:08 PM | Hide replies

Is it something like growing hair??

你们是在说头发生产速度那一类东西吗?

Re: Growth???
by kuldip bhatt (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 08:00 PM
Nope…Growing population..

不是…说的是人口增长…

Please read and then forward to as many people as possible…
by Ratikant Sahoo (View MyPage) on Jun 20, 2012 03:09 PM | Hide replies

1. TATAs took 100 years to become billionaires, Ambanis took 50 years(after utilizing all its resources), where as Robert Vadra took less than 10 years to become fastest multi billionaire.

2. All newspapers are scared to discuss the story of Robert Vadra because of severe threat from Sonia Gandhi and Congress govt.

3. After Robert Vadra got married with Priyanka Gandhi, Robert’s father committed suicide under mysterious circumstances, his brother found dead in his delhi residence and his sister found dead in mysterious car accident. These reports were not published in any Indian media.

4. He is having stakes in Malls in premier locations of India, he is having stakes in DLF IPL, and DLF itself. He was involved in CWG corruption – DLF was responsible for development of Commonwealth games, and Kalmadi gave favoritism to DLF because of Robert Vadra’s direct interest and business partnership with DLF.

5. Robert Vadra owns many Hilton Hotels including Hilton Gardens New Delhi

6. Robert Vadra’s association with Kolkata Knight Ryders has never been reported by Indian media

7. He has 20% ownership in Unitech, Biggest beneficiary ownership of 2G Scam. Because of Robert’s involvement in this scam, there are concerns that investigation would never reach decisive conclusion

8. He owns prime property in India specially commercial hubs, and taxi business but for Air Taxi. He owns few private planes as well.

9. He has direct link with Italian businessman Quatrochi.

10. The Bureau of Civil Aviation Security has created a record of sorts by according special privilege to Robert Vadra, which entails him to walk in and out of any Indian airports without being subject to any security check. Only the President of India , Vice-President and a handful of other top dignitaries were accorded this rare distinction.

As a concerned citizen, I would like to know from the Government as to what was the special quality in Mr. Vadra that merited this rare honor. The government has no right to go in for such largesse that concerns with the security of the general public just for pleasing the son-in-law of Sonia Gandhi.

请看过后尽可能转发给更多的人…

1、塔塔家族花了100年才成为亿万富翁,阿巴尼花了50年(用尽了所有资源),而罗伯特·瓦德拉只花了不到10年,成为了最快当上亿万富翁的人(三泰虎注:罗伯特·瓦德拉是索尼娅·甘地的女婿)。

2、由于害怕索尼娅和国大党政府威胁,所有报纸都不敢讨论罗伯特·瓦德拉的发家故事。

3、罗伯特·瓦德拉娶了普莉雅卡·甘地后,他的父亲神秘自杀,他的哥哥被发现死在其德里住所,他的姐姐在神秘的车祸中死去。没有一家媒体报道这些事情。

4、罗伯特·瓦德拉在印度繁华地段的购物商场拥有股份,在印度最大的房地产公司DLF也拥有股份。他也涉嫌英联邦运动会的腐败,因为DLF负责英联邦运动会的开发。由于罗伯特·瓦德拉与DLF之间有直接利益和商业伙伴关系,所以卡尔曼迪偏袒DLF(三泰虎注:卡尔曼迪是印度奥委会主席)。

5、罗伯特·瓦德拉拥有包括新德里希尔顿花园在内的许多希尔顿酒店。

6、印度媒体从来没有报道过Kolkata Knight Ryders和罗伯特·瓦德拉的关联。

7、罗伯特·瓦德拉有Unitech的20%所有权,是2G丑闻的最大受惠者。正是由于他和该丑闻有关联,所以人们担心调查永远不会得出决定性的结论。

8、罗伯特·瓦德拉拥有印度的高端房地产,特别是商业中心,还有出租车行业…他还有一些私人飞机。

9、他与意大利商人夸特罗奇有直接关联。

10、印度民用航空安全局创纪录地给罗伯特·瓦德拉进出任何一座印度机场都不用接受安检的特权。只有印度总统、副总统和一小部分其他显要人物才有这个特权。

作为一名关心国家的公民,我想从政府那里知道罗伯特·瓦德拉有什么特别之处,可以享受此项殊荣。政府没有权利为了讨好索尼娅·甘地的女婿而置公众的安全于不顾。

友荐云推荐
  1. 那一长串投资环境需要改善,改善以后也不是三锅的,而是国大党和甘地家族的.并且在大量的投资中会有大量的钱钻进瑞士银行,还有看不成板球比赛,非常可怕的体力劳动根本比不上软件业的轻松,把我亲爱的三锅累得吐血.累得满眼星星,三哥凭什么被你甘地家族奴役,全体三锅一定要起来悍卫民主,自游.坚决抵制外来的资本.一定要悍卫人权.人权民主是印度最自豪的,其它的见鬼去.
    印度的定位是正确的,世界办公室。

    • 这样他就成为世界的中坚力量,假如不结盟的国策不变,那也是亚洲的力量,西方横行霸道的日子就走到了尽头.

  2. 说也奇怪,印度是一个内需发展型的增长,中国是靠出口,现在欧美经济停滞,中国出口不利经济下滑,但印度为什么也下滑?印度的通胀是很厉害,很多印度人都受不了,印度的贫富差可能比中国还要猛,是今后发展的绊脚石@

    • 你确定印度是靠内需,中国不是的?孩子,中国那么农民,那么多家庭的日常用品,电器化,节日外出人员爆满,难道是外销不成?
      中国内需还是比较强劲的,只是当长了世界工厂,哪里都有“Made in China”的外销,对比起来,没有那么强劲而已

    • 印度的内需发展型经济是必然的,他基础设施差办公效率低下吸引不到太多制造业投资,出口小于进口,GDP较小,只要印度人的饭钱就已经占其中相当大比例了,必须内需,很内需、、、
      印度GDP已经下滑几年来最低至百分之五左右,资金外逃,卢比大幅贬值,与此同时通胀依然很高、、、
      印度经济药方 打击腐败 投资基础设施 公路 港口 发电站 提高政府审批速度简化过程【不要告诉印度 😉 】

  3. 印度是个超级大国,没人可以把印度甩在后面…印度军队是所有国家中最强大的。印度技术非常先进。中国技术是假的,只能山寨印度和美国…印度人比中国人更幸福…他们不能批评政府,否则会被杀掉(这是我听过的最滑稽的故事)。印度人可以随地小便,不必按照政府的计划行事…中国人太可悲了。

    哥笑了

  4. 所有国家都有发展的潜力,但是你能把潜力发展到什么程度才是关键,gdp不能说明什么,科技,人才,人们的生活水平,才是根本。如果经济无法促进科技的发展,和人才的培养,生活水平的提高,那么经济只是空中阁楼,随时都会掉下去的。所以,人才是保证一个国家能爬多高的基础,培养人才的效率是一个国家能走多远的动力,。所以经济的发展的潜力要善用,用不好的话就是浪费

  5. P民免疫力出奇的高,从不飘飘然。况且姐弟屁高与低与P民无关.P民只喜欢幸灾乐祸.看印度人天天比较实在是让P民调节生活劳顿带来的疲乏进行消减的简单方法.

  6. 印度发展更快潜力最大,应该是正确的,中国如果是印度现在的状态,那政府一定高兴那得有多少基本建设要投啊,那一投那速度增长就上去了