原文标题： 'India and China to dominate this century'
There has been a major shift in the global balance of economic power, creating a new global hierarchy dominated by the East, says Chris Patten, chancellor of Oxford university. Naomi Canton reports.
India and China are set to dominate in a new post-western world but "that did not necessarily mean that the United States of America and Europe have had it," the last governor of Hong Kong, Chris Patten, has said.
Patten, now chancellor of Oxford university, made the remarks in a speech he gave at a recent alumni weekend, held by the university.
Lord Patten of Barnes, famed for handing back the sovereignty of Hong Kong to the People's Republic of China in 1997 marking the end of British rule, told the audience of Oxford alumni that there had been a major shift in the global balance of economic power and that India and China would dominate this century, creating a new global hierarchy dominated by the East.
In his speech, 'What next? Surviving the 21st century', based on his namesake book, he spoke of a "fin de siecle" mood pervading American and European society. But he compared that to the malaise felt in the West during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis "which felt like Armageddon", he said, using it to point out there had been previous periods in history when similar levels of despair had gripped the West. "Things today are not as dangerous as that," he said.
The former Conservative member of Parliament and European commissioner warned that the world population was set to increase from 6.9 billion by a further 2.1 billion by 2050, "mostly in poor countries" which already suffered from political instability and environmental stress. "The only rich country where population is set to increase is the USA," he added.
Speaking at The Sheldonian Theatre, where Oxford's matriculation and graduation ceremonies are held, Patten said we can expect to see an explosion of growth in cities, especially in China, in the future, increase in energy and water use and globalisation. He pointed out water use had increased nine fold in the past century, when the population increased fourfold.
He then spoke of the India growth story and visible power shift already taking place. Tata's Jaguar Land Rover recently announced plans to build a Rs 2,600 crore engine plant in the United Kingdom, creating more than 2,000 jobs and Tata is already Britain's largest manufacturing employer.
"Nowadays India invests more in the UK than vice versa," he said. In fact, India is soon expected to become the third largest economy in the world.
China is currently the second largest economy in the world but, by 2020, in the new post-western world, China would overtake the USA to become the largest economy in the world, Patten said.
But he pointed out that it was not all doom and gloom for Europe. While Europe currently had only had 10 per cent of the world's population, it currently generates about 21 per cent of the world's output (global GDP). By 2050 Europe will have 7 per cent of the world's population but the economy of the union is expected to remain among the world's top three largest economies.
"There are serious problems confronting both India and China," Patten warned and then spoke of the "steady federalisation of the polity in India".
He pointed out that Gujarat, where more than 1,000 people were killed in the 2002 communal riots, which accounts for just 5 per cent of India's population, actually contributes 16 per cent of India's output.
Patten also spoke of the "criminalisation of politics in India" and the "terrible levels of corruption in India, specifically corruption in the judiciary, bureaucracy and legislature." "Three chief justices in India today face criminal charges," he said. He then spoke of how the country had paradoxes such as "extraordinary wealth" next to "poverty" and "terrible infrastructure."
He then moved on to China. "China also has huge problems which are eroding its economic achievements, with a 1600 per cent increase in exports to the USA over the last 15 years, it faces huge environmental challenges," he said.
Patten said the main problem China now faced was how to rebalance its economy from substantial dependence on manufactured exports to greater investment in domestic infrastructure and domestic consumption.
Despite a massive boom in exports, wages in China remain low. Chinese wages as a share of GDP have fallen from approximately 53 percent of GDP in 1992 to less than 40 per cent in 2006.
Patten spoke of the importance of India and China taking centre stage not just economically but in global politics, international bodies and affairs too. "We know what needs to be done from the Middle East to climate change, we know the sort of things that the international community should be doing in order to find a solution. We know what we need to do to survive but there is a lack of political will to rise to the challenge," Patten said.
"How can we expect leadership to come from the USA when we have seen that their political system is gridlocked?" he asked.
A recent protracted inability of the US government to agree on a solution to its fiscal deficit and debt problems, owing to differences between the House of Representatives and Senate, led to the country's credit rating being downgraded for the first time.
When considering whether leadership should come from Europe, the 67-year-old former student of Balliol College, who is also chairman of the BBC Trust, pointed out the currency union was falling apart. "Why is it that Europe has failed to implement a series of measures to make Europe more competitive?" he asked.
Patten, a Catholic, who oversaw the oversaw the Pope's visit to Britain in September 2010, said that populations were falling fast in Europe, especially in Italy, Spain and Poland and the number of people in work supporting those in retirement was falling extremely fast.
The consequences of rapidly ageing populations and lower fertility rates meant greater immigration would be required to provide jobs and services in Europe. But he warned Europe would see "some of the tensions" that arise when there is no rapid economic growth alongside mass immigration. He said immigration into Europe was also likely to increase owing to natural disasters elsewhere.
When asked why British schools weren't concentrating on teaching Hindi and Mandarin in the light of his forecast, he replied, "My daughter learnt Hindi to appear in a Bollywood film," referring to Alice Patten, who starred as struggling British filmmaker Sue McKinley in the hit Hindi movie Rang De Basanti. In an apparent attack on Britain's youth, he added, "We need to teach them English first."
The alumni weekend, named Meeting Minds – 21st century challenges, offered a packed three-day programme of more than 120 events for alumni.
Oxford academics from a range of departments delivered lectures showing how they were tackling a range of global challenges from population growth to increased energy consumption, climate change, living on social networking sites, the science behind earthquakes and emerging infectious diseases.A highlight was a 'Mathematical Tour of Oxford' by Professor Marcus du Sautoy, who had presented the BBC documentary 'The Story of Maths', which had revealed that Indians had made many of the key mathematical breakthroughs in the world before the West had, even before Sir Isaac Newton was born, including inventing the zero, despite common misapprehensions that Math was a Western invention.
其中一个精彩演讲是马库斯·杜·桑托伊（Marcus du Sautoy）发表的《牛津大学数学之旅》。他还贡献了BBC纪录片《数学的故事》。该纪录片揭示了尽管普通人误以为数学是西方的发明，但是印度人早于西方做了许多关键的数学突破。这些突破甚至发生在牛顿出生前，包括发明了零。
India & China
by Ashwin (View MyPage) on Sep 28, 2011 11:56 AM
Sure. India & china will dominate the World Economics after 2030 for sure. But the only difference is that China will dominate in Industrial Growth with probably more than $100 Trillions Foreign Reserve & sure India will not lag behind. India also will dominate the World map with not 100 but $ 1000 trillions in Swiss & Other Banks, corrupt money looted from the Aam Aadmi of India while India also will dominate showing alround development in people dying for want of food, drinking water, Medicines etc.
China was never colonialised
by da dude (View MyPage) on Sep 28, 2011 04:10 AM | Hide replies
Thats why China is number 1. The mindset of Indians need to change. Need to be more assertive. India should produce more like China. The IT industry is ok as long as innovative. Frankly I dont like call center jobs its like serving westerners.
Re: China was never colonialised
by deepak (View MyPage) on Sep 28, 2011 07:09 AM
where did u learn ur history dude??? China was under Brits, under Japanese, and under Russians..Chinese were opium addicts and have India's civilization has far more depth, until Islam turned it upside down.
Re: Re: China was never colonialised
by C P (View MyPage) on Oct 01, 2011 11:00 AM
You are one dumbass, go back to school.
Re: Re: China was never colonialised
by Golden (View MyPage) on Sep 28, 2011 07:56 AM
may i know where did you learn your history..?
chinese were not opium addict, it was the thieves british who injected the opium into their youth to make sure that they will never revolt and that's why they fought two great wars called opium wars to stop britishers injecting poison into their youth which is future of any nation..
by Aum Company (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 02:49 PM
Asia had dominated the world until the colonial era when it was raped by armed might.
Asian patrimony, and indeed the world culture, is essentially a story of the civilizations of China and India.
Western powers will do all they can to create conflict between them in order to retain the momentum so bioth need to exercise caution.
by MANGAL PANDE (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 11:47 AM | Hide replies
India will dominated as it
Most corrupt country promoted by a family since independence
Most Muslim populated country Population growth encouraged for remaining in power by ruling govt
Govt creating maximum problems in country
China will dominate, but india long way to go.
by bihari babu (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 11:46 AM | Hide replies
Reason is very simple .china has unity of command. people are focused on work whole day. they dont wast time on debating like we get pleasure our of debating whole day. thats big reason why china will grow a lot faster.
in india we should train people to generate agreement quickly so that action can start sooner and outcome produced. otherwise we will be living in dark for century. our society is ego maniac. this has to go. otherwise we will continue to live in dirt.
Re: China will dominate, but india long way to go.
by Ajai Jacob (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 11:54 AM
China is already dominating the world.Since the westerners cannot digest the success of communist China,they always tag dirt-poor India alongwith China on all topics.
Most of the world fall into this trap carefully nurtured over the years by the international media.
Re: Re: China will dominate, but india long way to go.
by DhongiBaba (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 12:14 PM
India can't expect loyalty from Converted people like you. India is far behind compare to china but no one can ignore India's economic growth.
India is growing while....
by SURESH BABU (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:40 AM | Hide replies
India is growing while those politicians, of the ruling party at cntre, are sleeping.
We need more pro-business reforms.
China is focused on the industries of the future. What about us ? While China is making computer chips, we are making potato and banana chips.
We shall be able achieve what we dream. But the present Govt should be more growth oriented and dont allow to rule by an extra authority from the side rooms, by those without any knowledge.
just imagine, india without corruption,
by Balu RT (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:34 AM | Hide replies
i think india will be the super power.
India will improve but not Indians
by john antony (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:33 AM
whatever reasons, all other countries, the countrymen is proud and never says bad about their country. but in india, people like here will curse india until we become no.1 and enjoy the benefits. be proud of india. no country in world is perfect!!
Not India but surely China will
by Rahul (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:28 AM | Hide replies
India is totally mismanaged. The govt is disfuctional, the reforms have stopped., inflaiton is beyond control, govt schemes are not working, corruption is everywhere,...It is a misnomer to compare India and China. In HDI infact India is now below Bangladesh and Nepal, 70% of India populaton is below USD 1 per day...
Re: Not India but surely China will
by Kumaran Babu (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 11:19 AM
Our planning comission says Rs.32/day is enough for a family of 5. Pathetic
by buddy (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:22 AM
yes india ofcourse will dominate in poverty and bribery and scandals. JAI HIND.
That is the Truth
by myview (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:01 AM | Hide replies
We are not sure about India but CHINA will dominate. We can see that China is doing. We will be busy with 2G, 3G .....100G. once the next centruy completes we will have more Telecom Ministers inside Thihar Jail.