从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

英国末任香港总督彭定康:中国和印度将统治21世纪

2012-04-23 23:42 48个评论 字号:

英国末任香港总督彭定康Chris Patten)如今是牛津大学名义校长。他在牛津大学举行的”校友周末“上发表的演讲中称,全球经济力量平衡出现了重大改变,东方主导的新全球体系正在建立,印度中国将统治后西方世界,但这并不意味着美国和欧洲已经过时。彭定康在演讲中也提到了中国和印度各自面临的问题。值得一提的是,彭定康的女儿彭雅思(Alice Patten)为了出演宝莱坞电影《芭萨提的颜色》而学习印地语。

原文标题: ‘India and China to dominate this century’
原文链接:http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-india-and-china-to-dominate-this-century/20110927.htm

英国末任香港总督(Chris Patten)彭定康:中国和印度将统治21世纪

彭定康(Chris Patten)

There has been a major shift in the global balance of economic power, creating a new global hierarchy dominated by the East, says Chris Patten, chancellor of Oxford university. Naomi Canton reports.

India and China are set to dominate in a new post-western world but “that did not necessarily mean that the United States of America and Europe have had it,” the last governor of Hong Kong, Chris Patten, has said.

Patten, now chancellor of Oxford university, made the remarks in a speech he gave at a recent alumni weekend, held by the university.

Lord Patten of Barnes, famed for handing back the sovereignty of Hong Kong to the People’s Republic of China in 1997 marking the end of British rule, told the audience of Oxford alumni that there had been a major shift in the global balance of economic power and that India and China would dominate this century, creating a new global hierarchy dominated by the East.

In his speech, ‘What next? Surviving the 21st century’, based on his namesake book, he spoke of a “fin de siecle” mood pervading American and European society. But he compared that to the malaise felt in the West during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis “which felt like Armageddon”, he said, using it to point out there had been previous periods in history when similar levels of despair had gripped the West. “Things today are not as dangerous as that,” he said.

牛津大学名义校长彭定康称,全球经济力量平衡出现了重大改变,东方主导的新全球体系正在建立。

香港末任总督彭定康称,印度和中国将统治后西方世界,但这并不意味着美国和欧洲已经过时。

彭定康如今是牛津大学名义校长。他在牛津大学最近举行的”校友周末“上发表的演讲中做以上评论。

彭定康因为于1997年向中国归还香港主权而著名。该事件标志着英国统治的结束。他告诉牛津大学校友,全球经济力量平衡出现重大改变,东方主导的新全球体系正在建立。

他的演讲《接下来该做什么?在21世纪中生存》,以他的同名书为依据,提到了美国和欧洲社会普遍存在的”世界末日“心态。他将那种心态和1962年古巴导弹危机期间西方的心神不安做比较。并以此为例子指出历史上出现过困扰西方的类似绝望。他称:”今天的情况没有那么危险。“

The former Conservative member of Parliament and European commissioner warned that the world population was set to increase from 6.9 billion by a further 2.1 billion by 2050, “mostly in poor countries” which already suffered from political instability and environmental stress. “The only rich country where population is set to increase is the USA,” he added.

Speaking at The Sheldonian Theatre, where Oxford’s matriculation and graduation ceremonies are held, Patten said we can expect to see an explosion of growth in cities, especially in China, in the future, increase in energy and water use and globalisation. He pointed out water use had increased nine fold in the past century, when the population increased fourfold.

He then spoke of the India growth story and visible power shift already taking place. Tata’s Jaguar Land Rover recently announced plans to build a Rs 2,600 crore engine plant in the United Kingdom, creating more than 2,000 jobs and Tata is already Britain’s largest manufacturing employer.

“Nowadays India invests more in the UK than vice versa,” he said. In fact, India is soon expected to become the third largest economy in the world.

China is currently the second largest economy in the world but, by 2020, in the new post-western world, China would overtake the USA to become the largest economy in the world, Patten said.

But he pointed out that it was not all doom and gloom for Europe. While Europe currently had only had 10 per cent of the world’s population, it currently generates about 21 per cent of the world’s output (global GDP). By 2050 Europe will have 7 per cent of the world’s population but the economy of the union is expected to remain among the world’s top three largest economies.

这名前保守党议员和欧洲委员会成员警告,世界人口到2050年将在69亿的基础上增加21亿。增长的人口大部分出现在政治不稳定和面临环境压力的穷国。”人口将出现增长的唯一富国是美国。“

彭定康在牛津大学毕业典礼举行场所谢尔登尼亚剧院发表演讲。他称我们有望在未来看到城市人口,特别是中国城市人口的暴炸性增长,有望看到能源和水资源使用的激增,有望看到全球化的提高。他指出水用量在过去一个世纪增长了9倍,而人口只增加4倍。

他提及了印度的发展故事和已经发生的明显权利变化。塔塔的捷豹路虎最近宣布在英国投资260亿卢比建造一座发动机工厂,创造超过2000个工作岗位。塔塔已经是英国最大的制造业雇主。

”如今,印度在英国的投资超过英国在印度的投资。“事实上,印度不久有望成为世界第三大经济体。

彭定康说,中国当前是世界第二大经济体。到2020年,在新的后西方世界里,中国将超过美国成为世界最大的经济体。

但是他指出,对于欧洲来说并非完全是前景不妙。欧洲目前只有10%的世界人口,产生的GDP大约占全球21%。到2050年,欧洲人口将只占世界人口的7%,但是欧盟经济仍然有望跻身世界前三大经济体之列。

“There are serious problems confronting both India and China,” Patten warned and then spoke of the “steady federalisation of the polity in India”.

He pointed out that Gujarat, where more than 1,000 people were killed in the 2002 communal riots, which accounts for just 5 per cent of India’s population, actually contributes 16 per cent of India’s output.

Patten also spoke of the “criminalisation of politics in India” and the “terrible levels of corruption in India, specifically corruption in the judiciary, bureaucracy and legislature.” “Three chief justices in India today face criminal charges,” he said. He then spoke of how the country had paradoxes such as “extraordinary wealth” next to “poverty” and “terrible infrastructure.”

He then moved on to China. “China also has huge problems which are eroding its economic achievements, with a 1600 per cent increase in exports to the USA over the last 15 years, it faces huge environmental challenges,” he said.

Patten said the main problem China now faced was how to rebalance its economy from substantial dependence on manufactured exports to greater investment in domestic infrastructure and domestic consumption.

Despite a massive boom in exports, wages in China remain low. Chinese wages as a share of GDP have fallen from approximately 53 percent of GDP in 1992 to less than 40 per cent in 2006.

Patten spoke of the importance of India and China taking centre stage not just economically but in global politics, international bodies and affairs too. “We know what needs to be done from the Middle East to climate change, we know the sort of things that the international community should be doing in order to find a solution. We know what we need to do to survive but there is a lack of political will to rise to the challenge,” Patten said.

“How can we expect leadership to come from the USA when we have seen that their political system is gridlocked?” he asked.

A recent protracted inability of the US government to agree on a solution to its fiscal deficit and debt problems, owing to differences between the House of Representatives and Senate, led to the country’s credit rating being downgraded for the first time.

彭定康警告,印度和中国都面临严重的问题。他然后又提到了印度稳固的联邦政体。

他指出,2002年超过1000人在公共骚乱中被杀的古吉拉特邦只占印度人口的5%,但实际贡献了16%的印度产出。

彭定康也谈到了印度的政治犯罪和印度严重的腐败,特别是司法部门、政府机构和立法机关的腐败。他说:”印度今天有三名首席法官面临刑事指控。“他后来提到了印度存在的悖论,比如巨额财富、贫穷、糟糕的基础设施并存。

他然后把话题转向中国。”中国也有腐蚀经济成就的巨大问题。在过去15年里,对美出口增长了1600%。中国正面临巨大的环境挑战。“

彭定康说,中国现在面临的主要问题是如何重新平衡经济,如何从过度依赖制造业出口,转变成依靠国内基础设施的投资和国内消费。

尽管出口业繁荣,中国的工资仍然很低。中国人的工资占GDP的比例从1992年的大约53%下降到2006年的不足40%。

彭定康称,印度和中国的重要性不仅在经济上处于舞台中心,而且在全球政治、国际机构和事务中也是。”我们知道从中东到气候变化等问题上需要做什么,我们知道国际社会如何才能找到解决办法,我们知道如何才能生存,但是我们缺少接受挑战的政治意志。“

”我们看到美国政治体系陷入僵局,又怎么能期望美国能够领导?“

最近显示美国政府的无能例子是,由于众议院和参议员的分歧,美国政府在财政赤字和债务问题的解决办法上久拖不决,导致国家信用评级首次被降级。

When considering whether leadership should come from Europe, the 67-year-old former student of Balliol College, who is also chairman of the BBC Trust, pointed out the currency union was falling apart. “Why is it that Europe has failed to implement a series of measures to make Europe more competitive?” he asked.

Patten, a Catholic, who oversaw the oversaw the Pope’s visit to Britain in September 2010, said that populations were falling fast in Europe, especially in Italy, Spain and Poland and the number of people in work supporting those in retirement was falling extremely fast.

The consequences of rapidly ageing populations and lower fertility rates meant greater immigration would be required to provide jobs and services in Europe. But he warned Europe would see “some of the tensions” that arise when there is no rapid economic growth alongside mass immigration. He said immigration into Europe was also likely to increase owing to natural disasters elsewhere.
When asked why British schools weren’t concentrating on teaching Hindi and Mandarin in the light of his forecast, he replied, “My daughter learnt Hindi to appear in a Bollywood film,” referring to Alice Patten, who starred as struggling British filmmaker Sue McKinley in the hit Hindi movie Rang De Basanti. In an apparent attack on Britain’s youth, he added, “We need to teach them English first.”

The alumni weekend, named Meeting Minds – 21st century challenges, offered a packed three-day programme of more than 120 events for alumni.

Oxford academics from a range of departments delivered lectures showing how they were tackling a range of global challenges from population growth to increased energy consumption, climate change, living on social networking sites, the science behind earthquakes and emerging infectious diseases.A highlight was a ‘Mathematical Tour of Oxford’ by Professor Marcus du Sautoy, who had presented the BBC documentary ‘The Story of Maths’, which had revealed that Indians had made many of the key mathematical breakthroughs in the world before the West had, even before Sir Isaac Newton was born, including inventing the zero, despite common misapprehensions that Math was a Western invention.

就是否该由欧洲来领导而言,这名67岁的前牛津大学巴里欧学院学生和BBC托管会主席指出,货币联盟在瓦解。”为什么欧洲在实施一系列让欧洲更具竞争力的措施上失败了?“他问到。

彭定康是天主教教徒。他在2010年9月陪同罗马教皇对英国的访问。他称欧洲的人口在迅速下降,特别是在意大利、西班牙和波兰,支撑退休人口的工作人口下降得极其快速。

欧洲人口快速老龄化和低生育率的后果意味着需要更多的移民来提供工作和服务。但是他警告,如果大规模移民没有伴随着快速的经济发展,那么欧洲将出现紧张形势。由于其他地方发生自燃灾害,进入欧洲的移民也可能因此增加。

当被问及为什么英国学校没有根据他的预测而集中精力教授印地语和普通话的时候,他回答:”我的女儿为了出演一部宝莱坞电影而在学印地语。“他指的是在印地语火爆片《芭萨提的颜色》扮演努力奋斗的英国电影制片人苏麦金利的彭雅思(Alice Patten)。他又批评英国的年轻人,”我们需要首先教他们英语。“

本届”校友周末会“的主题是《思想的结合——21世纪的挑战》,为校友提供了为期三天的节目,涉及的活动超过120个。

来自牛津大学一系列学院的专业学者发表演讲,展示如何应对一系列的全球挑战,涵盖的话题从人口增长到能源消耗、气候变化、社交网站生活、地震科学和新出现的传染病等。

其中一个精彩演讲是马库斯·杜·桑托伊(Marcus du Sautoy)发表的《牛津大学数学之旅》。他还贡献了BBC纪录片《数学的故事》。该纪录片揭示了尽管普通人误以为数学是西方的发明,但是印度人早于西方做了许多关键的数学突破。这些突破甚至发生在牛顿出生前,包括发明了零。

以下是印度网民的评论:

India & China
by Ashwin (View MyPage) on Sep 28, 2011 11:56 AM

Sure. India & china will dominate the World Economics after 2030 for sure. But the only difference is that China will dominate in Industrial Growth with probably more than $100 Trillions Foreign Reserve & sure India will not lag behind. India also will dominate the World map with not 100 but $ 1000 trillions in Swiss & Other Banks, corrupt money looted from the Aam Aadmi of India while India also will dominate showing alround development in people dying for want of food, drinking water, Medicines etc.

当然,印度和中国将在2030年后统治世界经济。唯一的不同是中国将统治工业发展,可能拥有超过100万亿美元外汇储备;印度将不会落后,也将以瑞士银行和其他银行的1000万亿美元存款独霸世界版图。腐败的资金是从印度老百姓那里抢劫来的。此外,印度也将在人们渴望食物、饮用水和药品等方面引领全球。

China was never colonialised
by da dude (View MyPage) on Sep 28, 2011 04:10 AM | Hide replies

Thats why China is number 1. The mindset of Indians need to change. Need to be more assertive. India should produce more like China. The IT industry is ok as long as innovative. Frankly I dont like call center jobs its like serving westerners.

中国从来没有被殖民过。那就是中国将成为第一的原因。印度人的思维需要改变了,需要变得更加自信。印度应该像中国那样生产更多的产品。只要是创新的IT产业就没问题。坦诚地说,我不喜欢呼叫中心的工作,那样的工作就像是为西方人服务。

Re: China was never colonialised
by deepak (View MyPage) on Sep 28, 2011 07:09 AM
where did u learn ur history dude??? China was under Brits, under Japanese, and under Russians..Chinese were opium addicts and have India’s civilization has far more depth, until Islam turned it upside down.

你是从哪里学的历史?中国被英国人、日本人和俄罗斯人统治过…中国人鸦片成瘾。在ysl颠覆印度前,印度的文明深度远远超过中国。

Re: Re: China was never colonialised
by C P (View MyPage) on Oct 01, 2011 11:00 AM
You are one dumbass, go back to school.

你是傻蛋一个,回学校读书去吧。

Re: Re: China was never colonialised
by Golden (View MyPage) on Sep 28, 2011 07:56 AM
may i know where did you learn your history..?

chinese were not opium addict, it was the thieves british who injected the opium into their youth to make sure that they will never revolt and that’s why they fought two great wars called opium wars to stop britishers injecting poison into their youth which is future of any nation..

你能告诉我你是从那里学的历史吗…?

中国人并不鸦片成瘾。英国强盗将鸦片注入他们的年轻人,从而确保他们永远不反抗。那就是中国打两次伟大的鸦片战争的原因,是为了阻止英国人向国家之未来的年轻人注入毒品。

caution
by Aum Company (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 02:49 PM

Asia had dominated the world until the colonial era when it was raped by armed might.
Asian patrimony, and indeed the world culture, is essentially a story of the civilizations of China and India.
Western powers will do all they can to create conflict between them in order to retain the momentum so bioth need to exercise caution.

在武装力量开启的殖民时代前,亚洲一直统治世界。亚洲遗产和世界文化本质上是中国和印度的文明史。为了保持势头,西方大国将不择手段的在两国之间制造冲突,所以两国必须小心。

Dominating Country
by MANGAL PANDE (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 11:47 AM | Hide replies

India will dominated as it
Most corrupt country promoted by a family since independence
Most Muslim populated country Population growth encouraged for remaining in power by ruling govt
Govt creating maximum problems in country

自从独立以来,印度是家族推动的最腐败国家,所以印度将统治世界。

在大多数msl人口众多的国家,执政的政府为了保住权利而鼓励人口增长。政府制造了国内的最大问题。

China will dominate, but india long way to go.
by bihari babu (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 11:46 AM | Hide replies

Reason is very simple .china has unity of command. people are focused on work whole day. they dont wast time on debating like we get pleasure our of debating whole day. thats big reason why china will grow a lot faster.
in india we should train people to generate agreement quickly so that action can start sooner and outcome produced. otherwise we will be living in dark for century. our society is ego maniac. this has to go. otherwise we will continue to live in dirt.

理由非常简单。中国政令统一。人们整天专注工作。他们不会像我们一样整天乐于在争论中浪费时间。那是中国发展更快速的主要原因。

在印度,我们应该训练人们快速制定协议,这样可以更快行动,更快产生结果。否则我们将在黑暗中生活数个世纪。我们社会必须摒弃自我疯狂,否则我们将继续生活在肮脏世界。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Re: China will dominate, but india long way to go.
by Ajai Jacob (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 11:54 AM
China is already dominating the world.Since the westerners cannot digest the success of communist China,they always tag dirt-poor India alongwith China on all topics.
Most of the world fall into this trap carefully nurtured over the years by the international media.

中国已经统治世界。由于西方人无法接受中国的成功,所以总是在所有话题中将肮脏贫穷的印度和中国扯在一块。世界上的大多数人陷入国际媒体多年来精心设计的圈套。

Re: Re: China will dominate, but india long way to go.
by DhongiBaba (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 12:14 PM
India can’t expect loyalty from Converted people like you. India is far behind compare to china but no one can ignore India’s economic growth.

印度无法期望你这样改变信仰的人的忠诚。相比中国,印度远远落后。但是没人可以忽视印度的经济发展。

India is growing while….
by SURESH BABU (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:40 AM | Hide replies

India is growing while those politicians, of the ruling party at cntre, are sleeping.
We need more pro-business reforms.
China is focused on the industries of the future. What about us ? While China is making computer chips, we are making potato and banana chips.
We shall be able achieve what we dream. But the present Govt should be more growth oriented and dont allow to rule by an extra authority from the side rooms, by those without any knowledge.

当印度在发展的时候,那些统治政党的政客在睡觉。我们需要更多促进商业的改革。

中国专注未来产业。我们呢?当中国在生产计算机芯片的时候,我们在生产薯片和香蕉片。

我们应该有能力实现自己的梦想。当前政府应该更多的以发展为导向,不应该允许没有知识的人垂帘听政。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Balu RT
just imagine, india without corruption,
by Balu RT (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:34 AM | Hide replies

i think india will be the super power.

只要想象一下,印度要是没有腐败,我认为印度将成为超级大国。

India will improve but not Indians
by john antony (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:33 AM

whatever reasons, all other countries, the countrymen is proud and never says bad about their country. but in india, people like here will curse india until we become no.1 and enjoy the benefits. be proud of india. no country in world is perfect!!

不管是什么原因,其他国家的国民是自豪的,永远不会说自己国家的不好。但是在印度,在我们成为第一和享受好处之前,这里的人一直诅咒印度。为印度自豪吧,世界上没有国家是完美的!

Not India but surely China will
by Rahul (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:28 AM | Hide replies

India is totally mismanaged. The govt is disfuctional, the reforms have stopped., inflaiton is beyond control, govt schemes are not working, corruption is everywhere,…It is a misnomer to compare India and China. In HDI infact India is now below Bangladesh and Nepal, 70% of India populaton is below USD 1 per day…

不是印度,但是中国肯定会统治世界。

印度完全管治无方。政府失灵,改革停顿,通货膨胀失去控制,政府计划不起作用,到处都是腐败…将印度和中国比较是用词不当。在人类发展指数上,印度实际上位列孟加拉国和尼泊尔之后。70%的印度人每天生活不足1美元…

Re: Not India but surely China will
by Kumaran Babu (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 11:19 AM
Our planning comission says Rs.32/day is enough for a family of 5. Pathetic

我们的规划委员会说五口之家每天32卢比足够。真可悲。

dominate
by buddy (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:22 AM

yes india ofcourse will dominate in poverty and bribery and scandals. JAI HIND.

是的,印度当然会在贫穷、贿赂和丑闻上引领世界。胜利属于印度。

That is the Truth
by myview (View MyPage) on Sep 27, 2011 10:01 AM | Hide replies

We are not sure about India but CHINA will dominate. We can see that China is doing. We will be busy with 2G, 3G …..100G. once the next centruy completes we will have more Telecom Ministers inside Thihar Jail.

我们不确定印度是否会统治世界,但是中国肯定会。我们可以看到中国正在统治世界。我们将忙于2G、3G……100G丑闻。一旦下个世纪结束后,我们在提哈尔监狱会有更多的电信部长关在那里。

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  1. 评论几乎是一遍倒啊,不过我没想到三哥居然知道鸦片战争,印度的历史貌似我就知之甚少了

    • 是的,我也看见它晃头晃脑戴着胖乎乎的拳击套决不服输的可爱样儿!谢谢三泰虎,哎,我童心未泯.

  2. 印度还是个值得注意的竞争对手的,我也相信在未来几十年印度会有更长足的进步,毕业气候和人口的限制,整体超过中国会很难,短短21世纪估计没什么希望了!

  3. 其实印度有很多东西值得我们学习的,当然中国也有很东西值得他们学习,我们也到了改革的十字路口了,

      • 个人建议,你可以把最早留言的人放在最下面但是楼层号要显示是一楼2楼,以此类推,最上面就显示最新的留言,这样既可以让人方便知道谁是最新的留言,又能清楚他是第几个留言的人,好像有点说不清啦 😳

  4. 印度的腐败看样子比我们严重的多啊!!和我们一样,每次评论这些的时候都会骂几句贪官。。!! :mrgreen:

  5. 土共只要不被忽悠放弃核心产业的公有制,执政照顾大多数人民的利益,即使发展中出现一些问题,中国还是会向世界第一稳步迈进。

  6. 印度网友素质不错,很有自省精神和危机感。就象中国市场经济刚开始时的人们,一样的腔调。

  7. 其实印度人很聪明,在欧美很多都是精英。如果印度国内领导得当的话,将来还真有可能是中国的最大的敌人。

  8. 美国将继续当它的黑老大,继续在街上欺男霸女,一帮小喽啰将继续簇拥着他揩油水,由于大哥杀人一般都是规模化,并且杀法先进,因此,中国和印度不可能取代他.中国将继续忍气呑声地又半推半就地用他的伪钞.西方城管一如既往地指责中国出滩占道,做起生意来又不讲究,不象话.至于印度,他的滩位所象是在城乡结合部,三不管,所以印度最舒枝展叶,买什么,卖什么由他喜好,总之,美国还是那个美国,中国还是那个中国,印度还是那个印度,菲律宾还是那个菲律宾.而俄罗斯,任何条件俱备,但最致命的是人丁不旺.所以俄罗斯还是那个俄罗斯.

  9. 其实楼上的对食品安全问题说句算是辩解的也算是部分真实的话:30年的改革开放时间内要达到现在的生活水平,食品、水、空气都是代价,和美国对比,改革开放到现在一直在用比他们低得多的产能来养活比他们多4倍以上的人口。很多事是不得已而为之。

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