三泰虎

印度人视觉:印度落后中国多少年

印度Rediff网发表了T N Ninan撰写的一篇文章,称印度一小群人在讨论印度落后中国多少,得出来的结果是10年至25年以上。作者从GDP、识字率、预期寿命、出口、基础设施等方面,对中国和印度进行了比较。文章最后得出结论:停止将两国相提并论,抛弃“中印”说法。那么印度人如何看中印差距呢?让我们看看印度网民的评论。

原文标题:How far is India behind China?
原文链接:http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-column-how-far-is-india-behind-china/20120123.htm




印度人看中国北京:北京CBD

The debate in a small group earlier this week was about how far India is behind China. The quick numbers tossed out varied all the way from 10 to 25 years and more.

Figuring out the gap between the two "rising giants of Asia" is in fact an instructive study.

For instance, China's GDP in 2011 was $6.99 trillion, or nearly four times India's $1.84 trillion.

If the Indian economy were to grow at an annual average of 7.8 per cent (the rate for the past decade), it would take 18 years to get to China's current size. If growth were to accelerate to nine per cent, it would still take 15 years.

Could India have avoided falling so far behind China?

After all, when China began its Four Modernisations in 1978, the two economies were of roughly the same size ($145-148 billion).

Even in 1991, when India began its reforms, China's economy was only 40 per cent bigger than India's $268 billion.

The answer is that, in many ways, India in 1991 was already two decades and more behind China on key indicators, and it has not closed the gap.

本周初,一小群人争论印度落后中国多少。结果很快出来,落后10年至25年以上。

事实上,弄清两个“正在崛起的亚洲巨人”之间的差距是一项有益的研究。

比如,中国2011年的GDP是6.99万亿美元,或者说是印度1.84万亿美元的4倍。

如果印度经济以年平均7.8%的速度发展(过去10年的速度),印度需要18年的时间才能达到中国目前的规模。如果发展速度加快到9%,印度仍然需要15年。

印度是否本可以避免落后中国如此多?

毕竟,当中国于1978年开始四个现代化的时候,两个经济体的规模大约相等(1450亿美元至1480亿美元)。

甚至在1991年,当印度开始改革的时候,中国经济只比印度2680亿美元的经济大40%。

答案是,印度1991年就已经在主要的指标上落后中国二十年以上。差距并没有弥合。

印度人看中国和印度的出口:印度古吉拉特邦萨南德(Sanand)无水港

For instance, China's literacy rate in 1991 was 78 per cent, whereas India's was just 52 per cent.

Even today, India's literacy rate, at 74 per cent, is short of where China's was in 1991; meanwhile, China has moved ahead to 94 per cent literacy.

Ditto with life expectancy; China's in 1991 was 70 years.

Twenty years later, India had a tally of only 64 years. Of course, China's life expectancy has improved slowly in the last two decades, and is at 73; still, it will take India two decades and more to get to that figure.

Some seemingly large gaps might be closed more quickly. Thus, China's goods exports are about six times India's.

However, India's exports have multiplied nearly seven-fold in the last decade (from $43.8 billion to an expected $300 billion this year), so it could conceivably replicate China's current export figure in less than 10 years.

No such hope can be applied to industry, where too China's is more than six times India's.

比如,中国1991年的识字率是78%,而印度只有52%。

甚至在今天,印度的识字率是74%,比1991年的中国还低。与此同时,中国识字率已经进步到94%。

预期寿命也类似。中国的这个指标在1991年是70岁。

20年后,印度的统计显示只有64岁。当然,中国在过去20年的预期寿命缓慢提高,现在是73岁。印度需要20年以上才能达到那个数据。

某些看起来大的差距可能快速弥合。迄今,中国产品出口大约是印度的6倍。

然而,印度的出口在过去10年里几乎增加了7倍(从438亿美元增加到今年预期的3000亿美元),所以,可以想象的是,印度可能在不到10年里达到中国目前的出口额。

这样的期望并不适用于工业。中国的工业也是印度的6倍多。

印度北方邦一家机车厂

Move to research, and China has a citation index that is twice as good as India's.

In the space programme, China sent its first man into space in 2003; India hopes to do it in 2015, but is likely to take longer.

As for infrastructure, China has more than 30,000 km of expressways on which traffic speeds go up to 120 kmph; India has a few hundred kilometres.

China has a whole inter-city network of high-speed trains, five times as many Internet users, and nearly a million MW of power generation capacity.

India has only fractionally increased its train speeds since the first Rajdhani Express of 1969, and even if the country doubles power generation capacity every decade, starting from 150,000 MW in 2010, it will take more than a quarter century to get to where China is today.

谈到研究,中国的引文索引质量是印度的两倍。

在太空项目,中国于2003年首次将人送入太空。印度希望在2015年将人送入太空,但可能需要更久。

至于基础设施,中国有超过3万公里速度达到120公里每小时的高速公路。印度只有几百公里。

中国有一整套城际高铁网络,网民数是印度的5倍,发电能力接近100万兆瓦。

自从首列拉吉德哈尼特快在1969年运营以来,印度只是部分提高火车速度。从2010年的15万兆瓦为起点,即使印度发电能力每十年翻一番,印度将需要25年以上才能达到中国今天的发电能力。

印度视觉:中国农村

As for agriculture, China applies fully three times the fertiliser per arable hectare that India does.

The smallest gap is in the mobile phone population. And the largest gap perhaps in the quality of political leadership - China is able to produce a new crop of top-rung leaders every decade, in Beijing and in the provinces and large cities, whereas India's political parties offer little beyond an upper crust.

China's project execution is of course in a league of its own. As for sport, India got one gold medal in the last Olympics, China got 51.

The cold message to all Indians: stop talking of the two countries in the same breath, and dump the "Chindia" coinage.

For why does India not bracket itself with Iran, whose economic size in relation to India (1:4) is broadly the same as India's to China?

至于农业,中国每公顷可耕地施用的化肥整整是印度的三倍。

手机用户数的差距最小。最大的差距可能是政治领导层的素质差距——中国每十年能在北京、各省和各大城市培养出新一代的最高领导人。而印度的政党培养的只是上流社会。

中国的项目执行肯定是独创一格的。至于体育,印度在上一届奥运会获得一枚金牌,中国获得了51枚。

这些对于所有印度人来说是冰冷的信息:停止将两国相提并论,抛弃“中印”说法。

印度不和经济规模只有自己四分之一的伊朗归为一类的原因,大体上与印度不和中国归为一类的原因相同?

以下是印度网民评论



Reality is
by Amit (View MyPage) on Jan 29, 2012 01:50 PM

I happened to visit china ... and forget about being a decade or two behind china -- we are atleast 200 years behind them ... and by the time we reach their current level in next 200 years -- china will be 500 years ahead of us ... you just cant compare teh malls, infrasturcuture, roads, vehicles, tech savvy people.. though people have some issues ..

我正好访问了中国...别说落后中国十年或者二十年左右——我们至少落后他们200年...当我们200年后达到他们目前水平的时候——中国将领先我们500年...虽然那里的人们有某些问题...不过在商场、基础设施、公路、汽车、精通科技的人才等方面,你无法进行比较...

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

 
China and India
by kuldeep jain (View MyPage) on Jan 29, 2012 11:24 AM

I was lucky enough to see China and whatever you say it will take lot of time to India to match its strength.
Frinds if a country is supplying goods to whole WORLD then admit that it will have some thing which we dont have.
we import telecom , milatry ships , space technology , aircraft from abroad but never try to make them our own but China has this vision. we as IT supoer power work in top most companies of world but did we made any google or microsoft? ( china has his own searh engine Baidu)
and recently they launched their own GPS. they made their own aircraft, bullet train.

we think that every one has go a mobile phone and that is progress but China is putting his name as top most telecom technoloy supplier..

we should learn from them this things..

我有幸去了中国。不管怎么说,印度需要很长时间才能匹配中国实力。朋友们,如果一个国家为全世界供应产品,那就应该承认这个国家具备一些我们并不具备的。我们从国外进口电信设备、军舰、太空技术、飞机,但我们从来不自己努力生产,中国则有这样的远见。我们作为IT大国,在世界顶级公司工作。但是我们有创造自己的谷歌或者微软吗?(中国有自己的百度搜索引擎)他们最近推出了自己的GPS。他们自主生产了飞机、高铁。

每个人都有了一部手机,我们认为这是个进步。但是,中国正在成为顶级电信技术供应国。我们应该向他们学习这些东西。

 
This is another problem with we indians
by Sigma Refrigeration (View MyPage) on Jan 28, 2012 12:07 PM

We usually miscalculate many such things.

India can be grouped with Pak, Bangla, Nepal , Srilanks, and the likes

It does not make a group with China

Considering the pace of growth parameters in India we are around 100 yrs behind what China is today.

我们通常算错了许多这样的事情。印度并不是和中国同一类的,应该和巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡等那样的国家归成一类。考虑到印度的发展速度,我们今天大约落后中国100年。

 
Crappy Report
by blogger (View MyPage) on Jan 27, 2012 02:50 PM | Hide replies

China had never sent anybody to the space on its own spacecraft. Shenzhou-V is a scam, and they taped it in underwater environment.

中国从来没有通过自己的飞船将人送上太空。神州五号是个骗局。他们是在水下拍摄的。

 
This is selective comparison between India & China!
by Ravi (View MyPage) on Jan 26, 2012 12:40 PM

Then why China talks about US in the same brackets. The authors message to India applies to China too. Point is taken that India has a lot more to do to reach where China is today.

(这是印度和中国之间的有选择性比较!)为什么中国要同比讨论美国。作者传递给印度的信息也同样适合中国。有一点很清楚,为了达到中国今天的位置,印度还有很多事情要做。

 
BUT CHINA DEPENDS ON INDIA TO SELL JUNK PRODUCTS
by Amarnath Acharya (View MyPage) on Jan 25, 2012 07:04 PM | Hide replies

China May be big, powerful, more developed but it will require India's support to be in that position as China markets its products here, They will progress so long as we buy their junk products, and we Indians buy their products from pencils to Refrigerators without thinking wnat will happen to Indian Products and Indian companies manufacturing them. We Indian finally blame Political system for evey thing and are not ready to take responsibility at individual capacity. Team team anna, Baba Ramdevs to preach people to stop buying cheap Chinese products

中国也许强大,也许更发达。由于中国在印度卖产品,所以中国所处的位置需要印度的支持。只要我们购买他们的垃圾产品,他们就会进步。我们印度人从他们那里购买的产品涵盖铅笔到冰箱的所有东西,我们从不考虑这会对印度产品和生产这些产品的印度公司带来什么影响。最终,我们印度人将一切归咎于政治制度,却并不准备承担自己的个人责任。安纳、巴巴·拉德维团队应该鼓吹人们停止购买廉价中国货。

 
We should compare with Bangldesh & Pakistan
by reetam (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 06:49 PM

India is far behind china atleas by 2o years or more. We can only comapre with Pakistan & Bangldesh.

印度至少落后中国20年。我们只能与巴基斯坦和孟加拉国比较。

 
how far really lag?
by big Joke (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 05:54 PM

In terms of development infrust....and human index, I would say at least 50 years. In other words, if pause china now, it may take 50 years for India to catch. Say we just look at a China inner city (not coast cities), like:Chongging, do you really think India will/can build a city like this in 50 years?

Youtube yourslef: "bird's eye view chongqing"

在基础设施发展和人类指数方面,我要说的是印度至少落后50年。换句话说,如果中国现在停止发展,印度可能需要50年才能赶上。我们说的只是中国内陆城市(不是沿海城市),比如重庆。你们真的认为印度在50年后能建设那样一座城市吗?

自己看Youtube:“鸟瞰重庆”。

 
Wake up guys
by Guru Prasad (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 11:34 AM

Comparing India with China is like the BIG cat closing its eyes and saying the world is dark. Wake up guys...we are in no way close to China on any parameters. Can you compare Mumbai with Shangai (as reported in some media ). Mumbai is filled with filthyness, Chaos and self centered people. So do not even compare for next 100 years.

将印度和中国比较,就像是一只大猫闭上眼睛,然后说世界是黑暗的。醒醒吧,朋友们...在任何数据上,我们连中国的边都沾不上。你能将孟买和上海比较吗(就像某些媒体报道的那样)。孟买到处是污秽、混乱和以自我为中心的人。所以,未来的100年都不要比较。

 
Simple facts
by shiva (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 11:15 AM

China's GDP is $5 trillion and growing at 8%. Ours is one third of that and growing at 6%. Do the sums. It just does niot make any sense to compare us with China. We can never catch up!

中国GDP是5万亿美元,发展速度是8%。我们GDP是中国的三分之一,发展速度是6%。计算一下吧。将印度和中国比较没有任何意义。我们永远都赶不上!

 
India can not be a developed country just like china.
by ram singh (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 10:49 AM | Hide replies

India can not be a developed country just like china because of it's diversity.
1.Religionism:
2. racism
3. Casteism
4. regionalism

由于多样性,印度并不能像中国那样成为一个发达国家。
1、宗教主义
2、种族主义
3、种姓制度
4、地方主义

 
Real difference
by Sandeep Ghosh (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 09:38 AM | Hide replies

I have been to China and Singapore for many years. So seen the Chinese race very closely. Their loyalty to nation and faith toward rulers is unquestionable. They are hardworking and don't hesitate to pick up lowly job. In our office we have women who clean our desk and make tea. Her husband is big businessman and she drives a big car.

They have blended their ancient culture with modern ethics quite wonderfully. For us culture means just making women wear Sari. You would see Chinese traditional medicine shop and men/women practicing tai-ji in every street. How many ayurvedic shops we have. If we don’t have faith on our government and our culture and make it modernize then no prospect of Indian race.

我在中国和新加坡呆了许多年。所以非常近的观察了中国人。他们对国家的忠诚和对统治者的信心是不容置疑的。他们勤劳,毫不犹疑的做卑微工作。在我们的办公室里,有一名擦桌子和泡茶的妇女。她的丈夫是大企业家,自己开着一辆豪华汽车。

他们非常棒的将古老文化和现代道德规范融合在一起。对于我们来说,文化只是意味着妇女穿纱丽。你在每条街道上都能看到中药店和人们在打太极。我们有多少家阿育吠陀商店。如果我们对自己的政府和文化没有信心,如果我们不将印度现代化,那么印度人是没有前途的。

(三泰虎注:“Ayurveda”为梵文,中文一般译为“阿育吠陀”或“生命吠陀医学”。它被认为是世界上最古老的医学体系。五千多年来,它在无数印度传统家庭中使用着。其影响波及南北半球几乎所有的医学系统,因此印度阿育吠陀被誉为“医疗之母”——摘自百度百科)

 
Our advantage is our free society...
by Tamil Arasan (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 10:35 PM | Hide replies

China is a controlled economy without any freedom, yes they are doing great but this has come with a huge stimulant program from the government, on the other hand India's growth story is due to private entrepreneurship, which is lacking in China.
During the cold war era, Russia was matching with America in each and every filed with a state controlled economy, but later the private entrepreneurship such us Google, Apple, Microsoft and others pulled America to greater heights and that was possible because America was a free society like India.

Even in China they are astonished to see how India was able to achieve 7 to 9 percent growth year after year with out any major stimulant program from Indian government, but on the other hand the Chines government have pumped billions of dollars to achieve 8 to 10 percent growth in the past five years...

So Rediff don't be so negative to give such article where you ridicule India, China is good in it's own way and we are good in our own way, and we are not doing bad either...
But as long us Congress rules India we are never going to be a developed country they are like a cancer eating us within...

中国是一个没有自由和受到控制的经济体。是的,他们做得非常棒,但这来源于政府的巨大刺激计划。另一方面,印度的发展是由私营企业推动的。这是中国所不具备的。

在冷战时期,俄罗斯(苏联)经济是国家控制的,在每个领域都和美国匹敌。但是后来,谷歌、苹果和微软等私营企业让美国提升到一个更伟大的高度。这之所以可能,是因为美国是像印度那样的自由国家。

中国人甚至都感到吃惊,即印度政府没有推出庞大的刺激计划,印度是如何连续几年取得7%到9%发展速度的。另一方面,为了取得8%到10%的发展速度,中国在过去五年投入了数以十亿计的美元...

所以,Rediff不要那么悲观的发表此类嘲笑印度的文章。中国有自己的专长,我们也有自己的优势。我们做得也不差...

但是,只要国大党还统治印度,我们永远也不能成为一个发达国家。他们像癌症一样从内部吞噬我们...

Re: Our advantage is our free society...
by Jugal Ahuja (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 10:34 AM
mr arasan,have you been to china,i don't think,otherwise you would not have commented as above. the non-resident chinese of usa,taiwan,singapore,indonesia,malaysia,philipines,& thailand & the hong kong chinese have invested billions of dollars in china & have set up huge plants in china, & definitely, they have not put their money in chinese govt enterprises, but in their own private industries. so therefore, mr arasan, dont comment on something which you have not seen, or do not know.


arasan,你去过中国吗。我认为你没去过。否则你不会发表上面的评论。美国、台湾、新加坡、印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和香港的华人华侨在中国投资了数以十亿美元,建立了巨大的工厂。当然,他们没有将资金投入国有企业,而是投入自己的私营企业。所以,arasan,不要对自己没见过或者不了解的东西发表评论。


Re: Our advantage is our free society...
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 12:45 AM
India is not progressing fast enough because tere are too many people like you who live at the bottom of a well and never have a chance to see what the real world is. Private economy takes more than 70% share of China's ecomomy and China has a lot of rich businessmen even China's private economy has only about 30 year history.


印度有太多你这样从来没见过真实世界是怎么样的井底之蛙,所以印度没有足够快的发展。私营经济占了中国经济超过70%的份额。虽然中国的私营经济只有大约30年历史,但中国有许多富有的企业家。



 
never compare china and india!
by charan raj (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 09:59 PM | Hide replies

china has lack of innovative , china just copy and perform. but india has its unique innovative. see the china and india history. for example do we trust china products , china is duplicate in every aspects ask every country of china and its products, where as india is original! proud to be indian!

中国缺乏创新。中国只是模仿和执行。但印度有独有的创新。看看中国和印度的历史。比如,我们是否信任中国货。中国在所有方面都山寨。问问任何国家的人如何看中国和中国货。印度是原创的。我对自己是个印度人感到自豪!

Re: never compare china and india!
by Jugal Ahuja (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 10:45 AM
charanji, china's economy is $7 trillion (second only to usa in the world)as per latest figures by world trade bodies.you mean to say that they have attained this position by selling duplicate things. walmart,carrefour the two biggest supermart store chains of the world have on their racks materials & consumable things 70% made in china.the duplicate & poor quality story that is going around is because our great honest traders purchase the cheapest variety @ throw away prices from china & sell here for earning maximum profit. that is why walmart,carrefour must set up shop here so that the truth about chinese materials quality comes out into the open.


charanji,根据世界贸易组织的最新数据,中国经济是7万亿美元(在世界上仅次于美国)。你意思是说中国是通过卖山寨品来取得这个位置的。世界上最大的两家连锁超市沃尔玛和家乐福的货架上70%的消费品是中国产的。中国货是山寨和劣质的说法之所以蔓延,是因为我们伟大的贸易商为了赚取最大利润,以垃圾价格从中国采购最廉价的产品,然后在这里销售。那就是沃尔玛、家乐福必须在这里建立的原因,这样公众将了解有关中国货质量的事实。



 
Indians should be happy for where we are,
by Sonderaj (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 09:15 PM

as long as we keep moving forward. Why should we be compared with other people??

只要我们保持进步,印度人应该对自己所处的位置感到开心。我们为什么要和其他人比较?
It is called
by shiva (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 08:46 PM

 
India overtaking China is "wishful thinking". If wishes were horses, beggars would ride!

印度超过中国是“一厢情愿的想法”。如果愿望都能实现,乞丐早就发财了!

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

 
India & China how to play with figures
by Nirjet Jenam (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 08:30 PM

All these figures of India overtaking China in 18 & 15 years are based on the assumptions that China growth rate will be either zero or negative. which is unlikely.
However if India achieves constast growth rate of 10% and China slows down to modest 2-3% then only India will be able catch up with China in roughly 50 years. However both scenarios looks unlikely.
Author is only playing with figures without telling the facts.

印度的这些数据将在15年到18年内超过中国,是以中国发展停止或者倒退为根据而得出的。这是不大可能的。如果印度稳定的以10%的速度增长,中国放缓到保守的2%至3%,那么印度可以在50年左右赶上中国。然而,两种情况都不大可能。作者只是在玩数字游戏,没有道出事实。

 
piri
But what takes the cake is
by piri (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 07:24 PM

the fact that in China, just about 5 % of the population is poor enough to defecate in the open while in India, a full 64 % of the population still have to poo in the open (figures from the 'World Sanitation Congress' report of 2009)!!

事实是,中国只有大约5%的人是穷到要在户外“方便”的。而在印度,足足64%的人仍然在户外“方便”(数据来自于“世界卫生大会”的2009年报告)!!

 
China has 84,000km of expressway at the end of 2011
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 07:15 PM

that's a lot more than 30,000km mentioned here

(截止2011年底,中国有8.4万公里高速公路。)比这里提到的3万公里要多得多。

(三泰虎注:截止2011年底,中国高速公路通车里程为8.5万公里

 
China's GDP was US$7.4 trillion in 2011
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 06:50 PM

China's GDP was about 47.2 trillion RMB. and 1US$1 = 6.3 China RMB. So China's GDP was more than US$ 7.4 trillion

中国2011年的GDP大约是47.2万亿人民币。1美元等于6.3人民币。所以,中国GDP超过7.4万亿美元。

 
Pollution
by Saba Pathy (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 05:29 PM | Hide replies

China stands first there too. My friends visited China and they fell sick due to too much pollution. They say it just drains energy

中国在污染方面也是排第一。我的朋友访问过中国。由于污染太大,他们生病了。他们说中国只是在耗尽能源。

 
Difference b/w Indians and Chinese..
by Abhinith Marvanthe (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 04:46 PM | Hide replies

Loosers never agree that they are loosers, and Winners never argue that they are Winners.Simple difference makes lot of sense in development.

失败者永远不承认自己是失败者。胜利者永远不辩称自己是胜利者。在发展上,浅显的差异意义重大。

 
we are 50 years
by mabel faria (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 04:31 PM

behind China and with our corrupt Governent the gap will only become more.....just look at China's infrastructure it is amazing....we don't even have proper roads in place.

我们落后中国50年。由于我们腐败的政府,差距只会扩大...看看中国的基础设施,非常令人吃惊...我们甚至没有说得过去的公路。

 
leaders
by Ravi (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 04:22 PM

Mainly leaders are corrupt in this country and democracy is not getting very much good for the progress of the country and contrymen.

国家的主要领导人是腐败的。皿煮对国家和国人的进步用处不大。

 
India needs to hurry up
by Gurumurthy Nageswaran (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 04:19 PM | Hide replies

Very insightful article. It is disturbing to note that two countries with almost the same size 3 decades back are so different now with one galloping sky high and the other crawling.

India should stop bragging about it being the second fastest growing economy. It should find ways to surpass china. It looks like the country's priorities are lop sided. People should be more vigilant to compel politiicans to act or quit.

非常深刻的文章。我非常不安的注意到,30年前规模几乎相等的两个国家如今差距如此大。一个飞速发展,高高在上,另一个龟速前进。

印度应该停止吹嘘自己是发展速度第二快的经济体。印度应该寻找超过中国的方法。这个国家优先考虑的事情看起来是片面的。人们应该更警惕的迫使政客办事,否则政客就下台。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

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