原文标题：How far is India behind China?
The debate in a small group earlier this week was about how far India is behind China. The quick numbers tossed out varied all the way from 10 to 25 years and more.
Figuring out the gap between the two "rising giants of Asia" is in fact an instructive study.
For instance, China's GDP in 2011 was $6.99 trillion, or nearly four times India's $1.84 trillion.
If the Indian economy were to grow at an annual average of 7.8 per cent (the rate for the past decade), it would take 18 years to get to China's current size. If growth were to accelerate to nine per cent, it would still take 15 years.
Could India have avoided falling so far behind China?
After all, when China began its Four Modernisations in 1978, the two economies were of roughly the same size ($145-148 billion).
Even in 1991, when India began its reforms, China's economy was only 40 per cent bigger than India's $268 billion.
The answer is that, in many ways, India in 1991 was already two decades and more behind China on key indicators, and it has not closed the gap.
For instance, China's literacy rate in 1991 was 78 per cent, whereas India's was just 52 per cent.
Even today, India's literacy rate, at 74 per cent, is short of where China's was in 1991; meanwhile, China has moved ahead to 94 per cent literacy.
Ditto with life expectancy; China's in 1991 was 70 years.
Twenty years later, India had a tally of only 64 years. Of course, China's life expectancy has improved slowly in the last two decades, and is at 73; still, it will take India two decades and more to get to that figure.
Some seemingly large gaps might be closed more quickly. Thus, China's goods exports are about six times India's.
However, India's exports have multiplied nearly seven-fold in the last decade (from $43.8 billion to an expected $300 billion this year), so it could conceivably replicate China's current export figure in less than 10 years.
No such hope can be applied to industry, where too China's is more than six times India's.
Move to research, and China has a citation index that is twice as good as India's.
In the space programme, China sent its first man into space in 2003; India hopes to do it in 2015, but is likely to take longer.
As for infrastructure, China has more than 30,000 km of expressways on which traffic speeds go up to 120 kmph; India has a few hundred kilometres.
China has a whole inter-city network of high-speed trains, five times as many Internet users, and nearly a million MW of power generation capacity.
India has only fractionally increased its train speeds since the first Rajdhani Express of 1969, and even if the country doubles power generation capacity every decade, starting from 150,000 MW in 2010, it will take more than a quarter century to get to where China is today.
As for agriculture, China applies fully three times the fertiliser per arable hectare that India does.
The smallest gap is in the mobile phone population. And the largest gap perhaps in the quality of political leadership - China is able to produce a new crop of top-rung leaders every decade, in Beijing and in the provinces and large cities, whereas India's political parties offer little beyond an upper crust.
China's project execution is of course in a league of its own. As for sport, India got one gold medal in the last Olympics, China got 51.
The cold message to all Indians: stop talking of the two countries in the same breath, and dump the "Chindia" coinage.
For why does India not bracket itself with Iran, whose economic size in relation to India (1:4) is broadly the same as India's to China?
by Amit (View MyPage) on Jan 29, 2012 01:50 PM
I happened to visit china ... and forget about being a decade or two behind china -- we are atleast 200 years behind them ... and by the time we reach their current level in next 200 years -- china will be 500 years ahead of us ... you just cant compare teh malls, infrasturcuture, roads, vehicles, tech savvy people.. though people have some issues ..
China and India
by kuldeep jain (View MyPage) on Jan 29, 2012 11:24 AM
I was lucky enough to see China and whatever you say it will take lot of time to India to match its strength.
Frinds if a country is supplying goods to whole WORLD then admit that it will have some thing which we dont have.
we import telecom , milatry ships , space technology , aircraft from abroad but never try to make them our own but China has this vision. we as IT supoer power work in top most companies of world but did we made any google or microsoft? ( china has his own searh engine Baidu)
and recently they launched their own GPS. they made their own aircraft, bullet train.
we think that every one has go a mobile phone and that is progress but China is putting his name as top most telecom technoloy supplier..
we should learn from them this things..
This is another problem with we indians
by Sigma Refrigeration (View MyPage) on Jan 28, 2012 12:07 PM
We usually miscalculate many such things.
India can be grouped with Pak, Bangla, Nepal , Srilanks, and the likes
It does not make a group with China
Considering the pace of growth parameters in India we are around 100 yrs behind what China is today.
by blogger (View MyPage) on Jan 27, 2012 02:50 PM | Hide replies
China had never sent anybody to the space on its own spacecraft. Shenzhou-V is a scam, and they taped it in underwater environment.
This is selective comparison between India & China!
by Ravi (View MyPage) on Jan 26, 2012 12:40 PM
Then why China talks about US in the same brackets. The authors message to India applies to China too. Point is taken that India has a lot more to do to reach where China is today.
BUT CHINA DEPENDS ON INDIA TO SELL JUNK PRODUCTS
by Amarnath Acharya (View MyPage) on Jan 25, 2012 07:04 PM | Hide replies
China May be big, powerful, more developed but it will require India's support to be in that position as China markets its products here, They will progress so long as we buy their junk products, and we Indians buy their products from pencils to Refrigerators without thinking wnat will happen to Indian Products and Indian companies manufacturing them. We Indian finally blame Political system for evey thing and are not ready to take responsibility at individual capacity. Team team anna, Baba Ramdevs to preach people to stop buying cheap Chinese products
We should compare with Bangldesh & Pakistan
by reetam (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 06:49 PM
India is far behind china atleas by 2o years or more. We can only comapre with Pakistan & Bangldesh.
how far really lag?
by big Joke (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 05:54 PM
In terms of development infrust....and human index, I would say at least 50 years. In other words, if pause china now, it may take 50 years for India to catch. Say we just look at a China inner city (not coast cities), like:Chongging, do you really think India will/can build a city like this in 50 years?
Youtube yourslef: "bird's eye view chongqing"
Wake up guys
by Guru Prasad (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 11:34 AM
Comparing India with China is like the BIG cat closing its eyes and saying the world is dark. Wake up guys...we are in no way close to China on any parameters. Can you compare Mumbai with Shangai (as reported in some media ). Mumbai is filled with filthyness, Chaos and self centered people. So do not even compare for next 100 years.
by shiva (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 11:15 AM
China's GDP is $5 trillion and growing at 8%. Ours is one third of that and growing at 6%. Do the sums. It just does niot make any sense to compare us with China. We can never catch up!
India can not be a developed country just like china.
by ram singh (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 10:49 AM | Hide replies
India can not be a developed country just like china because of it's diversity.
by Sandeep Ghosh (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 09:38 AM | Hide replies
I have been to China and Singapore for many years. So seen the Chinese race very closely. Their loyalty to nation and faith toward rulers is unquestionable. They are hardworking and don't hesitate to pick up lowly job. In our office we have women who clean our desk and make tea. Her husband is big businessman and she drives a big car.
They have blended their ancient culture with modern ethics quite wonderfully. For us culture means just making women wear Sari. You would see Chinese traditional medicine shop and men/women practicing tai-ji in every street. How many ayurvedic shops we have. If we don’t have faith on our government and our culture and make it modernize then no prospect of Indian race.
Our advantage is our free society...
by Tamil Arasan (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 10:35 PM | Hide replies
China is a controlled economy without any freedom, yes they are doing great but this has come with a huge stimulant program from the government, on the other hand India's growth story is due to private entrepreneurship, which is lacking in China.
During the cold war era, Russia was matching with America in each and every filed with a state controlled economy, but later the private entrepreneurship such us Google, Apple, Microsoft and others pulled America to greater heights and that was possible because America was a free society like India.
Even in China they are astonished to see how India was able to achieve 7 to 9 percent growth year after year with out any major stimulant program from Indian government, but on the other hand the Chines government have pumped billions of dollars to achieve 8 to 10 percent growth in the past five years...
So Rediff don't be so negative to give such article where you ridicule India, China is good in it's own way and we are good in our own way, and we are not doing bad either...
But as long us Congress rules India we are never going to be a developed country they are like a cancer eating us within...
Re: Our advantage is our free society...
by Jugal Ahuja (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 10:34 AM
mr arasan,have you been to china,i don't think,otherwise you would not have commented as above. the non-resident chinese of usa,taiwan,singapore,indonesia,malaysia,philipines,& thailand & the hong kong chinese have invested billions of dollars in china & have set up huge plants in china, & definitely, they have not put their money in chinese govt enterprises, but in their own private industries. so therefore, mr arasan, dont comment on something which you have not seen, or do not know.
Re: Our advantage is our free society...
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 12:45 AM
India is not progressing fast enough because tere are too many people like you who live at the bottom of a well and never have a chance to see what the real world is. Private economy takes more than 70% share of China's ecomomy and China has a lot of rich businessmen even China's private economy has only about 30 year history.
never compare china and india!
by charan raj (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 09:59 PM | Hide replies
china has lack of innovative , china just copy and perform. but india has its unique innovative. see the china and india history. for example do we trust china products , china is duplicate in every aspects ask every country of china and its products, where as india is original! proud to be indian!
Re: never compare china and india!
by Jugal Ahuja (View MyPage) on Jan 24, 2012 10:45 AM
charanji, china's economy is $7 trillion (second only to usa in the world)as per latest figures by world trade bodies.you mean to say that they have attained this position by selling duplicate things. walmart,carrefour the two biggest supermart store chains of the world have on their racks materials & consumable things 70% made in china.the duplicate & poor quality story that is going around is because our great honest traders purchase the cheapest variety @ throw away prices from china & sell here for earning maximum profit. that is why walmart,carrefour must set up shop here so that the truth about chinese materials quality comes out into the open.
Indians should be happy for where we are,
by Sonderaj (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 09:15 PM
as long as we keep moving forward. Why should we be compared with other people??
It is called
by shiva (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 08:46 PM
India overtaking China is "wishful thinking". If wishes were horses, beggars would ride!
India & China how to play with figures
by Nirjet Jenam (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 08:30 PM
All these figures of India overtaking China in 18 & 15 years are based on the assumptions that China growth rate will be either zero or negative. which is unlikely.
However if India achieves constast growth rate of 10% and China slows down to modest 2-3% then only India will be able catch up with China in roughly 50 years. However both scenarios looks unlikely.
Author is only playing with figures without telling the facts.
But what takes the cake is
by piri (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 07:24 PM
the fact that in China, just about 5 % of the population is poor enough to defecate in the open while in India, a full 64 % of the population still have to poo in the open (figures from the 'World Sanitation Congress' report of 2009)!!
China has 84,000km of expressway at the end of 2011
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 07:15 PM
that's a lot more than 30,000km mentioned here
China's GDP was US$7.4 trillion in 2011
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 06:50 PM
China's GDP was about 47.2 trillion RMB. and 1US$1 = 6.3 China RMB. So China's GDP was more than US$ 7.4 trillion
by Saba Pathy (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 05:29 PM | Hide replies
China stands first there too. My friends visited China and they fell sick due to too much pollution. They say it just drains energy
Difference b/w Indians and Chinese..
by Abhinith Marvanthe (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 04:46 PM | Hide replies
Loosers never agree that they are loosers, and Winners never argue that they are Winners.Simple difference makes lot of sense in development.
we are 50 years
by mabel faria (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 04:31 PM
behind China and with our corrupt Governent the gap will only become more.....just look at China's infrastructure it is amazing....we don't even have proper roads in place.
by Ravi (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 04:22 PM
Mainly leaders are corrupt in this country and democracy is not getting very much good for the progress of the country and contrymen.
India needs to hurry up
by Gurumurthy Nageswaran (View MyPage) on Jan 23, 2012 04:19 PM | Hide replies
Very insightful article. It is disturbing to note that two countries with almost the same size 3 decades back are so different now with one galloping sky high and the other crawling.
India should stop bragging about it being the second fastest growing economy. It should find ways to surpass china. It looks like the country's priorities are lop sided. People should be more vigilant to compel politiicans to act or quit.