从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

印度媒体:中国高铁如何助力经济

2012-02-17 19:22 5个评论 字号:

中国高铁工程是人类历史上最大的交通基建计划。如此大规模的中国高铁如何助力中国经济印度媒体援引摩根斯坦利的研究称,高铁将重塑中国经济,并将从经济和社会两方面永远改变中国。由于高铁带来的巨大便利性,人流和物流将急剧增加,从而给许多行业带来机会。

原文题目:How China’s bullet trains are powering its economy
原文连接:http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-how-chinas-bullet-trains-are-powering-its-economy/20110616.htm

印度人看中国高铁:中国高铁如何助力经济

CRH380A动车(原文图片)

China’s high-speed rail project is the biggest transportation infrastructure plan in human history and it is transforming the Chinese landscape.

At a dizzying pace, Beijing has managed to bring to fruition its long-cherished dream of having a modern, super high-speed train system that criss-crosses the nation and is able ferry millions of passengers slashing travel time by over 60 per cent.

In just a few years, the Asian giant has managed to lay down over 5,000 km of new high-speed rail lines. And the plan is to expand it further . . .

Large sections of China’s population are becoming more mobile, remote regions of the country are opening up, and Chinese businesses are racing to meet under-served consumer demand.

中国高铁工程是人类历史上最大的交通基建计划,它正在改变中国的面貌。

北京成功的以令人炫目的速度,实现了长期渴望的拥有现代化超高速铁路系统的梦想,该系统纵横交错,能运送数以百万计的乘客,同时能节省60%以上的时间。

仅仅在几年的时间里,这个亚洲巨人完成了5000多公里高铁的铺设,同时这项规划将进一步扩大…

大部分中国人出行更加频繁,边远地区正在开放,中国企业竞相满足未被触及的消费需求。

A new Morgan Stanley study by Jerry Lou and Allen Gui explains how the ultra-fast bullet trains will change the Chinese economy forever.

High-speed rail is the key to China’s balanced, sustainable double-digit growth. By 2020, four super-city clusters will emerge in China and two existing super-cities will expand as a direct result of the population’s increased mobility and the surge in domestic traffic in China.

A more mobile workforce and newly accessible markets will serve to narrow the country’s geographic and economic disparities.

The impact is imminent . . . by 2013, 50 per cent of the cities on the planned network will be connected to the high-speed rail grid. The economic impact of this increased connectivity will continue well beyond the immediate gains in key industries, however.

一份由Jerry Lou和Allen Gui完成的最新摩根斯坦利研究,解释了超高速火车如何永远改变中国经济。

高铁是中国经济平衡、持久的两位数增长的关键。2020年前,中国人口的流动性增大和国内运输的上升,将直接导致四个超大城市群形成和两个已有的超大城市群扩大。

流动性更大的劳动力和新的可触及的市场,将缩小该国的地域和经济差异。

这个影响是巨大的…2013年前,高铁网络规划中的50%的城市将被连上高铁网。然而,除了关键行业的直接收获,流动性增加带来的经济影响也将持续。

Some industries are clearly well placed to derive long-term benefits from China’s infrastructure build-out.

Morgan Stanley analysts, from 12 industries and three continents, have identified the opportunities associated with this mega project.

The global investment bank has created geographic and sector baskets based on its investment analysis, which it believe will capture the secular opportunity in China for the coming 10 years, especially in hotels, restaurants, tourism, car rental, property, and rolling stock. However, aviation and toll roads may not fare as well, claims the Morgan Stanley report.

How high-speed rail is reshaping Chinese economy

China’s ever-expanding high-speed rail system is transforming the country, both, economically and socially.

有些行业明显针对高铁布局,以期望从中国基础设施建设中获得长期的利益。

来自12个行业和三大洲的摩根斯坦利分析家,确定了这项巨大工程相关的机会。

全球投资银行根据投资分析列出了中国未来10年存在机会的一揽子地区和部门名单,特别是酒店、餐饮、旅游、汽车租赁、房地产和轨道车辆。然而,这份摩根斯坦利报告指出,航空和收费公路可能没那么成功。

高铁重塑中国经济

中国一直在扩大的高铁系统正从经济和社会两方面改变中国。

Over the next decade, China’s high-speed rail system will increase the mobility of the population, affecting some 70 crore (700 million) people; contribute to the creation of four new super-city clusters, and enhance two existing super-cities; and boost hub cities’ traffic exponentially.

The high-speed rail system is the solution to China’s growth sustainability. A more mobile work force and more-accessible markets will narrow the country’s geographic and economic disparities.

Structural changes are imminent, but the economic impact is long term.

Over the next few years, China’s high-speed rail will take shape quickly. Investors, says the Morgan Stanley report, must understand the imminent structural changes and take positions today.

下一个十年,中国的高铁将提高人口的流动性,从而影响7亿人、助力4个超大城市群的形成和加强两个已经存在的超大城市群、成倍的促进城市间的交通。

高铁是中国经济持续发展的出路。流动性更大的劳动力和更容易触及的市场将缩小地域和经济差异。

结构改变是即刻的,但是经济影响是长远的。

几年后,中国的高铁网将快速形成。摩根斯坦利报告指出,投资者必须理解这个即刻的结构改变,在今天就应布局。

Morgan Stanley’s investment strategy on China’s high-speed rail focusses on the following at the regional level:

Western and Central China; and The most rapidly rising hub cities.

At the industry level, it focusses on:

Near-term immediate beneficiaries — railway infrastructure and rolling stocks industries;

Mid-term beneficiaries — leisure/lodging and properties;

Long-term beneficiaries — consumer staples and consumers ‘discretionaries’.

China, the most populous country in the world, will soon set another ground-breaking record: in the coming decade, its high-speed rail system, currently under development, will become the largest in the world.

摩根斯坦利关于中国高铁的投资战略,在地区级别是:

1、中国中西部

2、发展最快的大城市

在行业级别,它集中在:

1、短期的即刻受益的行业——铁路基建和轨道车辆行业

2、中期受益的行业——休闲/住宿和房地产

3、长期受益的行业——消费必需品和消费非必需品

世界上人口最多的中国,将很快创造另外一个带来全新震撼性的记录:在接下来的十年,正在发展的中国高铁网络将是世界上最大的。

Morgan Stanley says that development will be no less economically significant than China’s urbanisation story.

And here is why it believes the Chinese economy will continue to outperform:

The China high-speed rail system will span 30,000 km, connect more than 250 cities and regions with a total population of about 700 million, mobilise 400 core (4 billion) travellers per year, and add 1,600 billion km to China’s domestic passenger throughput annually (i.e., four times the total domestic passenger throughput in Japan today) by 2020.

At peak speed, the high-speed rail grid can support speeds of 350 km per hour, increasing commuting efficiency many times over.

摩根斯坦利指出,高铁发展在经济上不会比中国城市化影响更小。

以下是摩根斯坦利相信中国经济将继续表现优异的原因:

2020年前,中国高铁网络总长将达到30,000公里,连接250多个城市和地区,覆盖大约7亿人口,每年运送40亿乘客,并且增加16000亿公里的国内客运运输里程(换言之,是日本今天国内客运运输里程的四倍)。

高铁网络可以支持最高350公里的时速,能提高很多倍的运输效率。

Large, existing, stand-alone cities in the same region will see their boundaries merging to create connected metropolises, boosting secular service industry demand and creating new business opportunities in the consumer, leisure and lodging, and property sectors.

The investment bank calls these merged cities ‘super-city clusters’ (SCCs) and predicts that four new SCCs will emerge and two existing SCCs will expand in the coming 10 years.

Many economically challenged cities in west and central China will be revitalised because of the hub effect created by the high-speed rail system.

Some cities will even see passenger flow growing by as much as 10 times in the coming decade, making them strategically important targets for many industries such as hotel, catering, logistics, and properties.

在同一地区,已经形成规模的独立的城市将融合成为大城市,从而促进服务业需求,并且在消费、娱乐、住宿和房地产行业创造新的商业机会。

投资银行将这些融合的城市称为“超大城市群”,并预测未来10年将有四个新的城市群出现,两个已经存在的城市群将扩大。

中国中西部许多经济上不太成功的城市,将会因为高铁带来的核心效应而重新焕发活力。

有些城市的客流在接下来的10年里,甚至有多达10倍的增长,使其成为酒店、餐饮、物流和房地产等许多行业的战略性目标。

Geographic and economic rebalancing

Despite its rapid economic growth in the past few decades, China still faces bottlenecks in the distribution of its wealth, with a marked imbalance between the geographic development of the coastal areas and that of inland and western China.

Indeed, this geographic imbalance has been worsening as the coastal areas continue to develop at a much faster rate than do the inland and western regions.

Until now, most of China’s economy vibrancy has been trapped on the eastern and southern coasts of China, and as one travels across the region, the huge asymmetries in economic development make different cities look more like different countries.

地域和经济再平衡

尽管过去几十年经济快速发展,在财富分配上,中国仍然面临瓶颈,特别是在沿海地区和中西部地区存在明显的地域不平衡。

实际上,这种地域不平衡正在随着沿海地区继续比中西部地区更快发展而加剧。

直到现在,大部分中国经济活力局限在东部和南部沿海。如果穿过这些地区,经济发展上的巨大不对称使不同的城市看起来像不同的国家。

Those who visit Shanghai-centered coastal China, for instance, will find this region more like well-developed countries such as the United States and Europe and less like central and western China, even though the coastal region and the central/western regions occupy the same continent.

While regional economic differences are not rare in a global economy, China’s regional differences are by far the most disparate of any in the world.

The high-speed rail network will tap this geographic-economic imbalance in an unprecedented and aggressive fashion by improving market access, encouraging population mobility, and enhancing logistics efficiency.

Morgan Stanley said in the study that it expects to see lifestyle changes among the population, which in turn will stimulate innovation and creativity and lead to the creation of new businesses in the long-term.

比如,虽然沿海地区和中西部在同一块大陆,那些访问以上海为中心的中国沿海地区的人,将会发现这个地区更像美国和欧洲那样的发达国家,而不像中国中西部。

经济不平衡在全球经济中并不罕见,但是中国的地区不平衡是目前为止世界最大的。

通过增加市场机会、鼓励人口流动、加强物流效率等前所未有的积极方式,高铁网络将解决经济地域不平衡。

摩根斯坦利在研究中预期,人民的生活方式将改变。这种改变将促进创新性和创造性,长期来看,还将带来新行业的诞生。

The study said that by 2015, city clusters with travel radii of three hours would start to take shape in China. By 2020, there will be six such city clusters taking shape, overlapping with each other throughout most of China except the northwest and southwest.

These city clusters will cover about 70 per cent of the Chinese population and account for about 75 per cent of China GDP.

The study also said that by 2025 all of these city clusters would be so mature that the regional economic differences in China will narrow to Western economy levels.

According to the investment bank’s ‘rough estimates’, the parts of China that lag behind (central and western China) collectively will be growing at a rate of 15% real GDP in the coming 10 years, compared with their more-developed coastal peers.

Commercial and residential real estate value in the currently lagging cities covered by these city clusters will receive strong support from the launch of new high-speed rail lines.

这份研究指出,2015年前,三小时旅行时间的中国城市群将开始形成。到2020年,6个这样的城市群将形成,相互重叠并覆盖除西北和西南地区外的中国大部分地区。

这些城市群将覆盖70%的中国人口,产生75%的中国GDP.

这份报告也指出,到2025年,所有的这些城市群将非常成熟,地区间的经济差异将缩小到西方水平。

根据投资银行的初步估算,与更发达的沿海地区相比,中国落后的中西部地区将在接下来的10年里以15%的实际GDP成长率发展。

这些城市群覆盖的、目前较落后的城市里,商业和住宅地产的价值将随着新高铁的开通得到极大的提升。

Timeline: Investors should build positions today

Because China’s high-speed rail grid has 10 years more in its construction life cycle, Morgan Stanley is analysing the economic impact of HSR over a 10-year timeframe.

Nevertheless, the investment case is, in fact, imminent: The high-speed rail grid will take shape quickly over the next few years, so investors should take positions today, says the Morgan Stanley report.

According to the national high-speed rail construction plan and our own modelling, more than 50 per cent of cities planned for the high-speed rail grid over the next 10 years will be connected before 2013.

Addressing the concern: Profitability and sustainability

Will the China high-speed rail project be sustainable? This is clearly a valid question to ask. The operating capital required for such a mega project will be substantial.

时间表:投资者应该今天就布局

因为中国高铁网络还有10年的建设周期,摩根斯坦利是以10年为时间框架来分析高铁的经济影响。

然而,投资项目实际上是逼近的。摩根斯坦利报告指出,高铁网络将在未来的几年快速形成,所以投资者今天就应布局。

根据国家高铁建设规划和我们的模型,高铁网络未来10年规划所覆盖的城市中,有超过一半将在2013年以前被高铁连接。

关注的问题:盈利能力和可持续性

中国高铁工程是可持续的吗?这是个有用的问题。这么大的一个工程的运营费用是巨大的。

Morgan Stanley transportation analyst Edward Xu and capital goods analyst Kate Zhu believe that on average every 1,000 km of China high-speed rail will require Rmb4.5 billion per year in operating cash to function (this includes maintenance, parts replacement, and day-to-day operational costs).

On the other hand, the operating revenue, based on our ticket price estimate (using the same per-thousand-kilometre price to per-capita GDP ratio on the eastern portion of the national grid), per-thousand kilometre revenue will be around Rmb6.5 billion per year.

This translates into a national operating cash surplus of Rmb2 billion per year, which should be able to cover most, if not all, of the interest expenses.

The funding capabilities of the Chinese government too need to be looked at. The high-speed rail will create substantial new passengers flow, generate new business opportunities, and raise asset prices (such as land and properties).

All these will mean higher fiscal revenue for the local governments. It is estimated that at the national level, every 1,000 km of high-speed rail will create at least Rmb2 billion per year in new fiscal revenue. This is more than enough to close the high-speed rail funding gap.

摩根斯坦利交通运输分析员Edward Xu和资本货物分析员Kate Zhu相信,平均每1000公里的中国高铁每年的运营费用是45亿RMB(包括维护、零件更新、日常运营费用)。

另一方面,根据我们的票价预测,每1000公里高铁的每年运营收入大约是65亿RMB。

这样就转化成每年的高铁运营利润是20亿RMB,即使不能支付全部利息,也能偿还大部分。

中国的资金能力同样值得关注。高铁将带来足够的客流,产生新的商业机会和提高资产价值(比如土地和房地产)。

所有这些意味着地方政府更高的财政收入。据估计,在全国范围内,每1000公里的高铁每年至少将产生20亿RMB新财政收入。这足以支付高额的资金缺口。

Thus Morgan Stanley analysts conclude that the high-speed rail will create enough economic value to keep itself financially sustainable.

HSR’s sector investment implications

As the high-speed rail grid builds out quickly in China, its scale and logistical significance will start to create new business opportunities.

So how big would such business opportunities will be?

Among the sectors where opportunities will arise, according to Morgan Stanley, are:

Budget hotels;

Restaurant and catering;

Tourism (theme parks, resorts, and agencies);

Consumer staples;

Retailers and brands;

Car rental;

Commercial and residential properties;

Railway infrastructure; and

Capital goods and rolling stocks.

所以摩根斯坦利的分析员得出结论,高铁将产生足够的经济价值,使自身在财政上可持续。

高铁的投资行业暗示

因为中国的高铁网络建设快速,它的规模和物流意义将开始产生新的商业机会。

所以这些商业机会有多大呢?

根据摩根斯坦利的报告,将出现投资机会的行业是:

1、经济型酒店

2、饭店和餐饮

3、旅游(主题公园、度假村、旅行社)

4、消费必需品

5、零售和品牌

6、汽车租赁

7、商业和住宅房地产

8、铁路基建

9、资本货物和轨道车辆

Not surprisingly, the high-speed rail grid is also expected to pose new challenges to existing logistics forms:

Aviation

The aviation industry in China is likely to feel the heat once the high-speed rail projects are complete. Regional jets will have limited market potential in China and will do well only in those regions where the HSR will not reach, such as the northwest and southwest, assesses Morgan Stanley.

Airlines also will face tough competition on existing regional routes where HSR capacity will increase and divert passenger traffic.

Analysts believe that HSR would be competitive for airlines at a distance of 800-1,500 kilometres and highly competitive at a distance of 800 kilometres.

Because regional jets are usually targeting short- to mid-haul distances between 500 and 600 kilometres, it faces high risk from HSR on overlapping routes.

不惊奇的是,高铁网络将对现有的物流形式产生新的挑战:

航空

摩根斯坦利估计,一旦高铁工程完成,中国航空业可能感受到压力。支线飞机市场潜力有限,只有在高铁不能到达的地方表现良好,比如西北和西南。

在高铁能力增加的地区线路,航空公司也将面临高铁激烈的竞争,从而丧失客流。

分析员相信,在800到1500公里的距离,高铁对航空将有竞争力,在800公里以内,竞争优势明显。

因为支线飞机一般目标锁定在500到600公里的中短途路线,在重叠的路线上,将面临高铁带来的高风险。

Toll roads

The competition that HSR poses to toll roads will be much smaller than that to airlines due to HSR’s expensive ticket price and lack of convenience for short-distance travel.

Analysts expect 1-3 per cent passenger traffic dilution in 2011-13 from toll road to HSR. Furthermore, as HSR can free up cargo capacity in traditional railway system, the potential movement of cargo traffic from toll roads over to traditional railway is likely to be material.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley forecast a 10-12 per cent cargo traffic dilution from toll road to traditional railway by 2015.

Other countries’ cases turn to support our findings. Japan and the US experiences suggest that the construction of rapid-transit systems led to the urbanisation of local communities, boosted demand of commercial premises, and shored up regional economies.

In addition, passenger railway networks such as the high-speed rail system are expected to have significant positive impact on property values.

On the other hand, history shows the operation of high-speed rail could take substantial market share from conventional operators.

Europe and Japan observed severe blows to their airline traffic from high-speed rail on overlapping routes below 800 km.

收费公路

高铁对收费公路的竞争要比对航空公司小得多,因为高铁的高票价和短途旅行的便利性不足。

分析员预期在2011到2013年,1-3%客流从收费公路转向高铁。此外,因为高铁可以释放传统铁路的货运能力,从收费公路转向传统铁路的货物运输可能是实质性的。

同时,摩根斯坦利预测,2015年前,10%到12%的货物运输将从收费公路转向传统铁路。

其他国家的情况支持我们的研究结果。日本和美国的经验表明,快速运输系统的建设将带来本地社区的城市化,促进商业楼宇的需求和支持地区经济。

此外,像高铁系统那样的客运铁路网络将对房地产价值有明显的正面影响。

另外一方面,历史表明,高铁的运行可能从传统运输那里取得大量的市场份额。

欧洲和日本见证了高铁在800公里以下的重叠路线上对航空运输的沉重打击。

 

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