三泰虎

英国网友热议中国经济放缓:糟糕的中国增长数据吓坏市场

少年张学友17日译文,英国《每日电讯报》原题:令人失望的中国增长数据吓坏市场。据报道,中国经济增速出人意料地下滑,让人对其经济恢复心生质疑。股票市场的表现反映了人们的担忧。由于担忧中央银行缺乏减轻需求抑制通货膨胀的货币刺激因素,黄金价格创下两年以来的新低。近几个星期,来自这个经济巨人的多个数据显示中国经济恢复能力依然疲乏。进口的旺盛景象刺激了中国消费者的消费需求,但3月通货膨胀率下跌表明前景依旧暗淡。

译者:少年张学友
本文论坛地址:三泰虎论坛 http://bbs.santaihu.com/thread-5780-1-1.html
外文链接:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9994623/Disappointing-Chinese-growth-figures-spook-markets.html




英国网友热议中国经济放缓:糟糕的中国增长数据吓坏市场

An unexpected slowdown in China's economic growth has cast fresh doubt over the strength of its recovery, sending jitters through the stock markets.

中国经济增速出人意料地下滑,让人对其经济恢复心生质疑。股票市场的表现反映了人们的担忧。

Gold prices have dropped to a two-year trough due to fears of central bank sales and less monetary stimulus which could reduce demand to hedge against inflation.

由于担忧中央银行缺乏减轻需求抑制通货膨胀的货币刺激因素,黄金价格创下两年以来的新低。

Mixed signals from the economic giant in recent weeks have suggested that recovery in the economic giant remains fragile.

An apparent import boom fuelled hopes of growing Chinese consumer demand - considered a pillar of robust recovery amid sluggish growth in China's key trading partners, the US and EU - but the picture was muddied as inflation fell in March.

近几个星期,来自这个经济巨人的多个数据显示中国经济恢复能力依然疲乏。进口的旺盛景象刺激了中国消费者的消费需求---考虑到中国主要贸易伙伴美国和欧盟缓慢经济增长中经济强有力恢复---但3月通货膨胀率下跌表明前景依旧暗淡。

Such patchy figures have led analysts to question whether China's growth is still dependent on government spending and lacks the strong underpinning required from increasing consumer demand.
Slower spending on factories, real estate and other fixed assets, which rose 20.9pc in the first quarter, down from the 21pc rate for the first two months of the year. shows the economy suffers from structural problems, such as excess production capacity in some industries, according to Societe Generale economist Wei Yao.

这样糟糕的数据不得不让分析家质疑中国经济增长依然依赖于政府财政投资,缺乏强有力的消费增长需求支持。兴业银行经济学家魏耀指出,工业、房地产、以及其他固定资产的支出从本年前两个月21% 下降到第一季度的20.9%,支出的放缓表明经济正面临结构困境,例如某些领域生产能力过剩。

"Given all this credit injected into the system, the future should look better," he said. "Nevertheless, the level of efficiency in the economy has declined. The same amount of money will no longer produce the same amount of growth."

“考虑到所有的贷款都会投入这个系统,未来似乎会变好,”他说。“但是,经济的效率已经下降。同样的资本不再产出同样多的增速。”

While China's own growth target for 2013 stands at a modest 7.5pc, global forecasters keenly expect of a rebound for the world's second biggest economy after growth slowed to a 13-year low in 2012.

虽然中国自身目标2013年增速在7.5%,显得中规中矩,但这个全球第二大经济体在2012年创下13年来最低增速后预测家极度期望其经济恢复。

The Asian Development Bank predicts China's economy will expand 8.2pc this year, while the World Bank hopes to see an 8.3pc uptick even after a downward revision following last week's cut to the global trade outlook from the World Trade Organisation.

甚至在世界贸易组织上周修订了全球贸易下滑展望后,世界银行依然希望中国经济爬升到8.3%增速,而亚洲开发银行预测中国经济今年会达到8.2%。

以下是英国网民的评论:


译者:少年张学友
本文论坛地址:三泰虎论坛 http://bbs.santaihu.com/thread-5780-1-1.html



Lan Franser
"Analysts still question whether China's growth is the result of government spending...." It's ALL government spending and paper-money printing, wherever you look. Watch out for the backlash when inflation hits.

“分析者依然质疑是否中国经济增长归功于政府投资。。。”随你怎么想,其实就是政府多印钞,多花钱。当通货膨胀起来之时,注意其反作用。

chungkwoyan
......... Watch out for the backlash when inflation hits....
China's inflation rate is only 2.1%.
What backlash would it be?


.。。。。。当通货膨胀起来之时,注意其反作用。。。。
中国通货膨胀率只有2.1%。会有什么反作用? 快点长大吧,小子。



ghostsrising
China is the ultimate expression of the mystic swamp manifest in all its grim realities! China cannot maintain grow because its economy is one giant illusion predicated on building concrete towers of misery and fake gardens.

The globalists had a dream, and thought China could provide a never ending pot of gold - but failed to factor in all the corruption that stifles its vast population. Hundreds of millions of 'potential' consumers might produce a domestic consumption boom that could save the global economy from the abyss - however the Chinese are still predominately a peasant nation and the CCP refuses to empower its people. The CCP is dominated by uneducated thuggish slave masters and they enjoy the advantages far too much. If they had any real freedom or competitive markets mos tof these morons would find themselves living in the gutters.

What China should do is raise the wages of the 'workers' and open up its domestic markets to imports - but the shops are barren - imports are scarce apart from the luxury products demanded by the elites ! All those reasonably priced consumer goodies, and quality products the west takes for granted are completely missing from Chinese shops - and those that do get through the state corruption are so expensive the peasants can't buy.

China is destined to fail. Not one of the 'statistics' produced by the CCP can possibly be accurate or reflect reality in China. There is something quite odd about the whole country! The holes are everywhere. The faces tell the story too vividly to deny.

最终表明中国所有可怜的实体经济是不可见底的沼泽,中国不可能保持增长,因为其经济立足于悲惨又虚假的空中花园,简直就是一个巨大的幻象。

世界上的人有个美梦,认为中国可以提供永不枯竭的金矿-但是却没有考虑到足以扼杀其消费潜力的腐败问题。数以万计的潜在消费者可以促进国内旺盛消费,拯救处于谷底的全球经济--但是中国依然是一个不折不扣的农业国,共产党拒绝造福其人民。CCP主要由一群未受教育的奴隶主控制,而且他们醉心于现有的利益。要是他们有真正的自由或者充分竞争的市场,大部分愚民会发现他们一直过着臭水沟一样的生活。

中国要做的就是提高工人工资,对外开放其国内市场---但各类商铺匮乏--进口商品除了供权贵享用的奢侈品之外屈指可数。西方认为所有这些消费品价格合理质量上乘,却在中国的商店中几乎难寻踪迹---而那些经过国家腐败后的产品价格令人乍舌(译者:难道指的是中国的对进口商品的高额税收),以至于农民都买不起。

中国注定就是个悲剧。任何CCP公布的数据都不能准确反映中国实情。整个国家有些不正常!任何地方都存在黑暗面!人们的面部表情生动地诉说了一切而使人不得不信服。

After 5 years being dragged round zhuhai/Shenzhen Beijing enormous shopping centres my tired old bones can testify to the opposite- shops in china are not bare of produce- in fact anything but and my Chinese staff love shopping on their day off almost as much as sleeping. Don't know where you were but you missed a treat - wished the shops were empty. Cheers


在经过5年珠海、深圳、北京大型购物中心的工作之后,我这把衰弱的老骨头能证实反对者的观点---中国的商店并不缺乏商品---事实上应有尽有,而且我的中国同事在闲暇之余热衷于购物,就如喜欢睡觉一样。不知道你是哪里的,但是你搞错了事实---即你认为所有的店铺都应该是空空如也。


chungkwoyan
...........China is destined to fail.....
Fall from7.8% to 7.6% growth!
It is peanut change, Daft!
Whilst the UK growth rate is nearing zero or negative, is presumably destined to succeed!
Don't make fool of yourself, Daft.
Concentrate your work as a failed moderator on DT.


。。。。。中国注定是个悲剧。。。。。
从7.8%的增速下降到7.6%的增速。
有什么实质变化吗,傻逼。
虽然英国经济增速接近于0,甚至负增长,但依然被视为健康的。
不要愚弄自己了,傻蛋。 还是关心自己的工作吧。



royalgreenjacket
China is slowing down to 6pc growth is it time Africa was the growth engine for a change. The West needs to look at Africa, massive market if corrupt leaders were replaced

中国经济增速放缓至6%,是不是意味着非洲取代中国成为增速引擎呢?要是非洲的腐败领导被推翻,西方就要看好非洲这个巨大市场了。

recrem
What a surprise, China subsidises it's economy to flood the world with cheap tat. Now the world is flooded and some people believe good is not cheap and cheap is not good and so the export market has faltered and will continue to do so. China is going to the dogs and will be offloading gold anytime soon. Hence the gold and commodities crash. We are only a few days in and things should get much worse this week. Cash will be king again.

真意外,中国财政补贴其经济,使之以低价占领全球市场。现在世界市场沦陷了,一些人相信好货不便宜,便宜没好货(译者:对中国产品很失望?),因此出口市场开始萎缩,并将持续下去。中国即将崩溃,很快金价会下跌。随之而来就是黄金与期货市场崩盘。我们只有几天了,这周情况会变得更糟。现金会再次变得抢手。

dastone
The gold and bond market are telling us that the world is heading for depression.Money printing is TRADE PROTECTIONISM by the back door.This will lead to world recession and then depression.In a depression all assets lose their value and money is king.Gold is just another asset and so is losing value.Other recession indicators are,Oil is dropping,Commodities are dropping.Bond yields are dropping.The only reason equities are rising is because central banks are flooding the system with money, but this is totally artifical and will collapse shortly.So move to money and go for Dollars.

黄金和债券市场显示全球正走向衰退。大量印钞就是隐形贸易保护。这会导致全球经济衰退,然后就是萧条。在萧条时期,所有资产失去其本身价值,而拥有金钱才是王道。其他衰退迹象表现为油价下跌,大宗货物价格下跌,债券收益下降。股票价格上升的唯一原因就是中央银行用钞票充斥整个体制,但是这些都是人为的结果,很快就会崩溃。因此把目光转向金钱,多赚些美元吧。

George Orwell
1. Beijings biggest fear is political unrest- its only a matter of when not if, and the current cohort dont want it on their watch. Therefore if they let inflation run rampant the new middle classed will be upset - so for the first time ever Beijing has to think about what the masses want.

2. Any slowdown will pop the property bubble causing massive asset price deflation. They hope to control this but they cant. A lot of people will lose a lot of money.

3. There is so much corruption it is easier for manufacturers to move to Vietnam etc. where business ie easier and wages lower.

4. US consumers are still wary and QEternity has not put the money in their pockets, but only into the pockets of Wall Street gamblers and those who brought you 2008.

5. Huge numbers of middle class are buying real estate in stable countries like the US, UK, Australia, anything they can lay their hands on. This has caused local regionalised asset price inflation, so as the Chinese bubble will pop, some of these people who afterall dont have jobs where they have bought the properties, some of these people will repatriate some of their money causing asset price deflation on our shores also.

6. Its going to get very ugly for Austrlia.

1.北京最大的担忧就是政局不稳---可问题在于什么时候而不在于是否可能发生,而现在的掌权者不希望在他们的任期让这一切发生。因此要是他们放任通货膨胀恶性上升,新中产阶级会变得不安---因此北京有史以来第一次考虑人民真正的需求是什么。

2. 经济放缓将戳破房地产泡沫,引起大众资产贬值。他们希望控制这一切但事实上他们办不到。很多人将倾家荡产。

3. 有太多的腐败问题,迫使企业主远走越南等地。那里赚钱更容易,劳动力价格更低。

4. 美国消费者依旧谨慎,来世也不会将钱放在身边,只会交给华尔街的赌徒和那些带来2008金融风暴的人。(译者:说得是反话吗?)

5. 庞大的中产阶级在稳健的市场如美国、英国、澳大利亚购买房地产,以及那些他们可投资的资产。这直接引起当地的资产价格上升,因此当中国泡沫破灭之时,要是这些中产阶级在他们购买资产的地方没有工作的话,他们中的一部分人将撤回他们的投资,结果就是导致我们当地资产价格下跌。(译者:西方的房地产价格上升有部分因素在于国人疯狂购买)

6. 澳大利亚的经济数据会非常难看。

mikeinchina
As someone living in China, the first quarter has been smattered with holiday periods that have essentially ground the country and therefore economy to pretty much of a halt - the various festivals have had a real impact on business levels and in Japanese visitation, the on-going dispute with the Diaoyu islands has reduced that activity. The government's forecast was clearly optimistic and as business activity is now roaring ahead, if April's performance is anything to go by, the Q2 results will balance out those of Q1 as long as the North Koreans behave themselves!

作为生活在中国的人,第一季数据受到了对中国有重要意义的春节假期的影响,因此经济会有些停滞(译者:春节大家都放假吧,没有多少经济产出)---各种各样的节日对经济有实实在在的影响,而且在日本官员访华期间,持续的钓鱼岛争议减少了经济活动。中国政府的预测显然很乐观,并且现在商业活动逐渐活跃,要是4月份增长势头继续保持,第二季度的结果就会弥补第一季的不足。当然,前提是朝鲜佬别来麻烦中国!

George Orwell
How much do they pay you to blog?
Not much I hear. You would be able to get higher pay as a translator somewhere else, unless of course you would be rubbed out for disloyalty .


啊,麦克,
他们给你多少钱发评论?
我听说不多吧。要是你在别处做翻译,你能赚更多。当然除非你背信弃义。


mikeinchina
you're rather sad George Orwell. No-one pays me to blog and I'm not a translator - judging by your level of comment, no-one would pay you either. Allow other people an opinion
- sorry, I forgot, true democracy where you are - pity that slipped your mind.


乔治奥威尔,你看起来相当难过。我发评论没人付我钱,并且我也不做翻译---根据你评论水平判断,没人会给你付钱。容纳其他人的不同观点---抱歉,我忘记,你身处真正的民主社会---这似乎不存在你的观念中。


angermanagement
Hi mikeinchina, I miss the place terribly. Those who have never been don't know the world. Shenzhen and the pearl river was my main area, but worked in shanghai and B. thank you for a balanced report. The media in the UK so misses the point I doubt if the journalist go out. I miss the sounds and the energy, and would return tomorrow if not for family here. Enjoy your time there, time spent studying China is never wasted, if only more people went with an open mind and heart our little country would be a better and humbler place. Good luck and ze zeh.


嗨,mikeinchina, 我非常想念中国。那些从未涉足中国的人不会懂那个世界。深圳乃至珠江领域是我主要待过的地方,但我在上海和北京工作。谢谢你中肯的解说。要是记者去那儿,我怀疑英国的媒体会偏离事实。我怀念那儿的节奏和动力,如果不是为了我在这儿的家人,我明天就回去。(译者:难得遇到对中国有好感的老外)珍惜你在那里的时光吧,你花在研究中国的时间不会浪费的。要是更多的人带着开放的思想去中国,我们这个小国家会变得更好,更加谦卑。 祝你好运。


ghostsrising
The romantics vision of hell is always 'positive' ! You obviously did not study China very well dear....sucked in by the shiny bright lights and tall buildings no doubt, yet fail to notice its a facade predicated on illusion.
What exactly is the point of China then? Do enlighten us all......


地狱的浪漫景象总是‘振奋人心’! 兄弟,你很明显对中国了解不够。。。你无疑沉醉于其耀眼的灯光和摩天大楼,但是却没意识到这些都建立于虚幻中。


angermanagement
Same as its always been. An empire with an imperial cohort with a mandate from heaven. Fabulous wealth and hideous poverty. Awesome beauty and gut turning squalor . Lies and deception and honour and comradeship. A fascination for foreigners and deep impenetrable suspicion. We are crude and gauche, and shallow and ill educated, with short history and low morals. Above all stupid. China will fall prey to bureaucratic, nepotism and corruption as it has for millenia, then it rises again to transcend all other worldly powers. For the last two thousand years it has been the greatest economic force in the world. The Pharos had Chinese silk plated in their hair. They will not bow to the west and their transient live style. They do not count the democratic cycle as the measure of time or progress but will wait a hundred years for things to turn write. Social order is all because they know what the opposite brings. Democracy is a short lived experiment 1920 s.


And doesn't provide stability, or even accountability. It's a bleak thought to china party members but if they really mess up there is no pension plan or soft job in Europe. Knowing you whole life is on the line focused the mind wonderfully and make you think long and hard about all the issues and difficulties. If Gordon was a Chinese economist he' d be very dead now for the mistakes he made, and Tony would have been shot long ago. If you take the benifits of power you suffer if you get it wrong big time in the history of China. Ask the last Ming emperor who finished his wall in1664 saw it breached in 1665 and died on the end of a silk rope. Should have paid attention. What is the point of China- good question. As a westerner it makes you face up to an alternative reality like travelling to another planet. And you see the limitations more clearly. But still as ever it is a mystery that engenders strong even fearful response. A women I met made her child learn manderin after a visit when she saw what they are doing. 70% of all the worlds concrete is used in China. So she was fearful they want to take over the west- they don't by the way. Their empire stops at the border. Whenever they go outside it means trouble and pain. Ask emperor yuan, and Mao. Running China is enough. There are no Chinese soldier outside China and they would be much happier if there were nowhere else. They want to live with their culture which is more than enough and live what they call the beautiful life. Materialism - their new import from the west does not suffice to a deeply philosophical people. But as Loazi might say to you question - what point anything. It is what it is, but the twinkle in the eye of a beloved grand daughter as she studies a ladybird is worth all the gold in the world to an old dying man. Love to hear the point of the UK from your point of view. But I guess you have lost concentration, as another butterfly goes past. [cannot get the hang of this editing process- or the spell check or the fact my dinner was ready and sister insists I eat it hot]


中国一直以来都没变。中国就是一个拥有贵族,王权神授的帝国。奢华的财富与潜在的贫穷并存;美景与肮脏并存;谎言欺骗与荣耀友谊并存;对老外充满魅力与对其人民充满怀疑。我们粗俗肤浅,没有受过良好的教育,历史短,道德低。总之,就是傻逼一个。中国则是充满官僚政治、裙带关系、腐败问题,现在他再度崛起,超越世界上其他大国。在过去的两千年里她一直拥有世界上最强的经济实力。Pharos 曾经将中国的丝绸系在他们的头发上。现在中国人不会向西方,以及他们的暂时的生活时代低头。在时间与实践的检验下,他们不认为民主社会是永恒主题,但他们需要100年的时间来写下新的篇章。 稳定压倒一切,因为他们深知反对意味着什么。20世纪20年代接纳民主只是短暂的试验(译者:可能指的是新文化运动,倡导民主和科学),但民主并未使社会稳定,乃至让人对民主产生怀疑。


对党员来说,这个想法太极端,但要是他们真的混淆了,那就没有欧洲的退休金计划以及舒适工作机会了。(译者:可能指的是中国人干了最低端的工作,而附加值高的工作留给了欧洲)我们必须了解我们的整个生活都集中于让思想更奔放,让我们思考问题和困境从更加长远和更困难的角度出发。要是戈登是位中国经济学家,现在他会因其犯的错误而死,而托尼早就已经被枪毙了。


在中国历史上,要是你享有权力,当你犯下大错时,你会付出惨重的代价。大明最后一个皇帝在1664年建好了明长城,但1665年眼睁睁看着长城被攻破(译者:这个老外对中国历史很了解,真是百晓啊,这里指的是满清入关)最后用一根丝绸袍子结束了自己的生命。要是崇祯皇帝事前注意到关外的威胁,那现在的中国又会是怎样呢?(译者:可能暗指中国现在依然是最强大的国家)作为一位西方人士,中国让我们面临被替代的现实,就像到其他星球旅行。(译者:中国崛起的时代让这些西方人感到现有的秩序被打乱,让他们感到及其陌生,就如对于其他星球一样陌生,但从我们的立场来说,我们要打破国际旧秩序,建立国际新秩序)我们会清晰见证更多的限制。但是中国依旧是个谜,产生强有力甚至令人害怕的影响。


我见过的一位妇女,在游览中国,看见他们的经济后,就让其小孩学习普通话。因为70%的世界资源被中国消耗,因此她害怕中国人将取代西方人---虽然现在不会。中华帝国局限于中国境内。可当他们走出国门,对我们而言这意味麻烦与阵痛。想想元朝皇帝或者毛泽东,他们统治中国就足够了。要是中国境外没有中国士兵,他们会更加幸福。他们依附于自身的文化,即生活富足,过着他们认为美好的生活。



Longshan
Goodness knows why this is a surprise, enough people who really know, have been predicting the end of the world's largest Ponzi scheme for some years. The fall in output is only part of the indication that all is not well. You need to add to this another $1trillon of fiscal stimulus (which is bigger than that in 1Q2009) and the fact that official figures report that exports to Hong Kong rose by circa 90%. Even the Chinese authorities are investigating such a ludicrous figure, but for now it is official. The economic reports produced by China are barely fit to be used as toilet paper let alone for compiling statistics. When you have done with that try looking at cooper, coal, iron ore, and housing inventories, electricity generation figures and freight transport (less reliable as they are now being massaged as well) and you may at last accept the inevitable consequences of the laws of gravity!

天知道为什么这很奇怪,很多知道答案的人,早就预测到世界最大的庞式骗局会终结。产出下滑只是部分表明经济形势不太好。你应该想想另外的1万亿美元财政刺激(比2009年第一季度更多),并且考虑到出口到香港的货物上升了90%的事实。中国政府甚至正在调查这个荒唐的数据,但是目前为止,它是正式的。中国提供的经济报告连厕所纸都不如,忽略这些编造的数据吧。当你做到了这些,你可以试着看看铜、煤、铁矿石、以及房地产存量,电力生产数据以及货物运输(不太可信了,因为这些现在也能被人为控制),最后你可以接受法制调节下的结果,这个是不可人为控制的。

johnslattery
Longshan, as you are clearly a Chinese reader, can you give us one or two examples of why the "economic reports produced by China are barely fit to be used as toilet paper"? How do you know figures are being massaged? What evidence?


龙山,因为你很明显是位中国读者,你能给我们一两个例子,说明为什么”中国的经济报告连厕所草纸都不如呢”?你又怎么知道数据是被捏造的呢?证据在哪里呢?


Letter_from_Captain_Swing
A trillion is peanuts for China, less than US$ 760/person.
In the UK, we spend £ 750/person paying the interest on national debt.
Would I rather pay the city spivs or have new airports/roads/railways/metros - tough one that


1万亿对中国来算是微不足道的钱,平均下来每人不到760美元


在英国,我们每人必须为国债的利息支付750英镑。难道我想负担那些城市混混的生活开销又或者新的机场、道路、铁路、地铁建设支出吗?


Longshan
With respect you miss the point. Even with this additional cash stimulus the economy shrank. In fact I would expect the real economy, based on real figures, not the rubbish published every month, by government depts. and The PBC. to be somewhere between 0 -3% in 2013 and unless Mr Xi gets his act together at lightening speed, near or in negative territory in 2014/5. What chance has Mr Xi of turning this mammoth tanker at all, let alone quickly? As of now more than half the debt in China is "lost" in the uncontrolled shadow banking system, that was devised as a means to get round government banking controls. Provincial governments bear responsibility for debts, some say equivalent to more than one year of China's total GDP. Not bad considering they are not allowed to borrow either. This and much else I don't have time to write here, simple points to the inevitable. The rally of the last 4-5 months is nothing more than what a market trader would call a Dead Cat Bounce. Hmm Gravity again!


你搞错了。即使额外的财政刺激,经济依然衰退。事实上我希望真实的经济建立在真实的数据上,不是来自每月政府部门和中国人民银行发布的垃圾。除非习快速落实其政策,否则中国快速增长势头不再。李又有多少机会来改变中国战车的转向,还是放任其快速前进? 现在中国超过半数的债务陷入无法控制的影子银行系统,而这个系统旨在避开政府对银行的控制。省政府承担着大量债务责任,相当于中国一年的GDP总量。考虑到他们不允许外借,情况还不是很糟糕。内容太多,我没时间在这里写完,但这都无法避免。过去4-5个月的统计表明了市场交易者所称的死猫式反弹的迹象。(译者:股市行话,不太懂什么意思。百度百科解释:价格崩跌后快速地略为反弹,通常是指缺乏基本面因素支持的反弹升势,反弹之后很可能又将再度疲软。此词据称是源自这种说法: 只要跌下来的位置足够高,就算是死猫也会略为反弹。)


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