原文标题：China’s economy booms, India lags
At a Singapore conference focusing on China last year, Lee Kwan Yew was taking questions after his dinner speech.
The western head of the Beijing office of a leading consultancy firm stood up to tell Lee that there was not just one country rising in Asia but two, the second being India. He asked Lee for a comment.
The former minister mentor paused for a moment and said, “China does, India talks”, or words to that effect. He brought the house down in a roar of laughter.
There weren’t many Indians in the cavernous hall, but all of them must have wished the earth would swallow them up at that moment.
I was in Singapore again recently, for an investor conference organised by an Indian broking house.
Facing the sceptical questions of foreign institutional investors, listening to their growing doubts about India, and trying to explain the goings-on at home, was a humbling experience.
Certainly, it was a far cry from the triumphal Brics scenario that Indian interlocutors had got used to touting in such fora. And this was before the Budget and its controversies involving international business.
The dents that India has suffered in its international image came home even more starkly last week, at the Boao Forum for Asia that China organises every year on Hainan Island – touted as Beijing’s answer to Hawaii (apart from holiday spots that offer beaches and a balmy air, Hainan has a large naval base to make the Hawaii comparison stick; and of course it outdoes Hawaii with a bullet train service, expressways … the lot).
The genuflection to China by 1,200 delegates at Boao was to be expected; what was not was the seemingly co-ordinated attempt by Chinese speakers to put India down, and to admonish it for not being a good neighbour-all of it revealing some sense of competition but also more than a little condescension, and a hint of danger.
Observers at Boao noted that China was beginning to vacate some areas of low-cost, labour-intensive manufacture as the country’s per capita income rose, but the beneficiary was not India – as it could quite easily have been.
Instead, countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh were gaining from an influx of low-cost industries.
Businessmen from India were not surprised; they talked of long hours of power cuts, the high cost of every infrastructure input, the slow turnaround time at ports, labour law, and of course corruption at every step.
It sounded like a 1990s list, as though nothing had changed. Meanwhile, the ambitious development of the Hainan naval base presents a contrast to the bizarre shenanigans over defence matters at home, and revelations over the poor state of preparedness.
Hainan is closer to the Malacca Straits than India’s Vishakhapatnam naval base, and can hold nuclear and conventional submarines (including in underground shelters immune to satellite-tracking), as well as two carrier groups.
To the lay observer, the brave talk of bottling up the Malacca Straits to squeeze Chinese oil supplies in the event of a land war seems to ignore China’s naval capabilities.
The short point is that India is being tested strategically and economically, as China’s economy has grown to four times India’s size, from being about the same size in 1978 when it began its Four Modernisations (one of the four was defence).
The one thing that can help India regain some balance is sustained rapid economic growth, and the tragedy is that the political class is intent on sabotaging that goal.
China’s ascendancy has reached a point where India will have to play a delicate game of exercising autonomy in its pursuit of national objectives without provoking conflict. But at the end of the day, “It’s the economy, stupid!”
The ultimate destroyer congress
by Dude (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 02:19 PM | Hide replies
Industries destroyed by congee government:
which one left guess software industry only…
Re: The ultimate destroyer congress
by abhijit K (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 03:43 PM
only corruption and terrorism is flourishing in India.
India has Got CONGRESS
by dp (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 02:11 PM
India has got Congress and princes like Rahul and Sonia Gandhi….wht else can have to a slave nation?
by Arun Premraj (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 02:07 PM | Hide replies
talking of india and china in the same breath, room, forum, levels.. is just wrong.. they are worlds and poles apart.. in growth and development..
by panduranga vittal (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 02:32 PM
mad man they are not ples apart. China’s GDP per capita income is 7,536 US$, and it is 3,586 US$ for India, in PPP terms according to 2011 estimated of world bank. China is categorized as upper miffle in come country and India is categarized as lwer middle income country. India has the sceond fasterst groth after China and their groth rate varise bt about 1.5%.
IF you do not die in this decade, you can see that India supasses the greoth rate of china. China is not a rich coutnry mad man. you woudl have read above that in 1978 both coutnries had teh same gdp. accoridng to all perdictioins of all econimic research organisations, China and India will have the highest gdp in teh world in 2050. Do no write under illusins. REad and write.
Re: Re: sdfsf
by Akhilesh Palod (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 03:10 PM
Don’t go by Data. We are labelled as most corrupt country and all data are manipulated. See from your eyes after visiting China. Any comparision between Shangha & Mumbai? Their railway station/bus stands are better to our airports. Infrastructure wise if you remove GQ of Vajpayee we are still in medieval ages only. Railway timing are improved by couple of hours since independance.
Only thing we are ahead to China is bank balance at Swiss banks.
We are like that only
by ratnakar kamath (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 02:07 PM
Sad but true
It’s too far away from fact that India’s economy was
by Raj Gupta (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 12:32 PM | Hide replies
It’s too far away from fact that India’s economy was the same size as China in 1978.
China produced more than 300 million tons of grains in that year and was more than what India can do now. China produced more than 34 million tons of steel in 1978. India reached that point in 21st century. China built more than 1000 km of new railways a year in average in the 30 years until 1978, that’s far more than what India is doing now.
Re: It’s too far away from fact that India’s economy was
by Prem Mohan (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 02:08 PM
But India is a rich country. We have just financed Air India once again and will continue to do so at the expense of the marginalised and the down-trodden.
Re: Re: It’s too far away from fact that India’s economy was
by Akhilesh Palod (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 03:13 PM
Our politicians will finance King Fisher also some day.
（三泰虎注：翠鸟航空（Kingfisher Airlines），是一家位于印度班加罗尔的航空公司，在接收了4架租来的空中客车A320后，于2005年5月9日投入服务。翠鸟航空最初只有本地航线服务，公司由United Beverages Group拥有，由维扎伊·马洛亚（Vijay Mallya）领导，他也是和航空公司同名的印度著名啤酒品牌的拥有人。翠鸟航空的承诺是符合旅客的需要和提供合理价格的机票——摘自百度百科）
Re: It’s too far away from fact that India’s economy was
by panduranga vittal (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 02:38 PM
Dear Raj, these three comparisons are not creteria do talk this point. I read in 1975 that the per capita income of china was 300 US$ and it was 240 us$ for India at that times. When this rticle taks negatvie abouut India, why they suddently disappont you by telling some truth. acccept truth as truth. Now of course their percapita incoeme is 7,536 US$, and it is 3,586 US$ for India, in PPP terms according to 2011 estimated of world bank
by drax (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 11:59 PM
It is Con rule dear….India lagging is bound to happen. Indian dumbos deserve the rulers they voted in.
Two parameters: GINI coffiecient and exchange rate
by Nikhil Shah (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 11:41 PM | Hide replies
If you compare the two countries based on apple-to-apple comparison, the GINI index and exchange rates needs to considered.
When the GINI index is close to zero it means perfect equality of wealth and Sweden leads the world with an index of 0.23. India is about 36.8 and China is about 48 for 2012.
What this means is the gap between the rich and poor in China is higher of the 1.4 billion.
Another factor is the exchange rate of Chinese currency is set based on FIAT and is not in the open market like India’s. The IMF calculates India’s real value of the Rupee to be Rs 19 to the dollar based on PPP.
China is ahead of India only in production of electricity by about 3x because of the strong manufacturing base in China, otherwise India is
on par if the exchange rate is Rs 19 to the dollar instead of Rs 46
Re: Two parameters: GINI coffiecient and exchange rate
by Nikhil Shah (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 11:53 PM
Correction, Sweden’s GINI index is 23 and not .23
by narayan tiwari (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 11:31 PM
Manmohan: China is doing well
Pratibha Patil: When is my next foreign trip.
Manmohan: I am telling China is doing well
Pratibha: I spent only 205 crores for my foreign trip
Manmohan: I am telling that China is doing well
Pratibha: Will I get term extension
Manmohan: china is doing well
Pratibha: China, what is China, is it some place, good idea I will go there for my next trip!!
A lost nation
by abhijit K (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 03:46 PM
We are a lost nation against Pakistan. Except population I don’t see anywhere India overtaking China in near future.
by vivek khare (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 02:49 PM
well said Lee Kwan Yew .
Completely agree !
one foolish mad said it and many of his coutry enjoyed it.
by panduranga vittal (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 02:47 PM | Hide replies
one foolish mad said it and many of his coutry enjoyed it. Let them be in thir illusins. India is the second fastest growing country after china and it will be first in this decade, even in less than 3-5 years. In 2050 India’s GDP will be 87 trillion dollrs, and it will be 80 trillion dollars for china in terms of purchanisg power parity. But it is good that they remain in their foolish castels, so taht the hurdles will be lesser for us from them. Just imageine! when they get 10 times larger foreign investment than India, why not their groth rate is 10 times higher than us. We are growing at about 7.5 % on an average in this decade and their groth rate is 8.5%. We develoop by indegenious way and they develp becaue of cheap labor and not because of their intelligence.
Re: one foolish mad said it and many of his coutry enjoyed it.
by vivek patil (View MyPage) on Apr 18, 2012 12:45 AM
i don’t think you have seen recent ecomonic figures
DISHONEST POLITICIANS ARE RESPONSIBLE
by Shah Jahan (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 03:09 PM | Hide replies
The reason behind the lacking of India with that of China’s economy is the dishonest politicians holding high profiles in the country. The politicians think that holding political positions are the bed of roses, hold it and loot the country, to fill their treasure. Anna Hazareji is not wrong in his effort to make a clean India with free from bribery, scams and influencing families, relatives and friends.
They must feel ashamed of looting the nation and bringing the country’s economy to collapse and for all these failure the Hon’ble Prime Minister and the President of his Party is responsible for this. I find there was no difference between the looting of India by the British before Independence and by the politician after Independence. Though China has still some million of bounded prisoner labours at LAOGAI and the products are easily accepted by the developed nations and none of them refuse to buy such products of Laogai prisoners, which is banned by UNO.
But they are leading the world economy with their one-time useable products. Whereas India have good reputation over their consumer products with long-lasting services but is still lacking behind because the foreign exchanges are partly kept in the importing countries by the Indian-exporters and while doing import-export business on Govet. level the dishonest high ranking personalities always prove honesty in cheating the nation with bribe, scam and scandal.
We are still not late as in Hindi we sya, “JAB JAGE TAB SAWE
Re: DISHONEST POLITICIANS ARE RESPONSIBLE
by Nikhil Shah (View MyPage) on Apr 12, 2012 11:50 PM
If you look at the Indian economy before 1990 and after, India’s GDP has improved by 7x. Did India become less corrupt after 1990 ? No ?
It was the economic reforms compounded with IT exports in the last 20 years that has led to the boom.
Inflation, corruption and Population growth was always there before and after 1990, but the transformation to prosperity occurred after 1990 because India decided to open up the trade.
Re: Re: DISHONEST POLITICIANS ARE RESPONSIBLE
by David Dak (View MyPage) on Apr 13, 2012 05:17 AM
“India’s GDP has improved by 7x…..”
Are you sure? India’s GDP is ~1 trillion now. According to your 7x, it india has a economy of ~150 Billion before 1990. Is this right? I do not think so.