原文标题：Expect a Chinese attack by June/July
Last year when this author wrote about a Kargil- style foray by China in the near future, the idea was more in the realm of speculation. But the events of the last few months seem to move the likelihood from the speculative to the possible.
But it seems that New Delhi is in deep slumber or has no time to pay attention to such ‘minor’ issues like national security when all attention is focused on the upcoming assembly election in Uttar Pradesh.
It is, however, unfair to blame the government alo#8800 even the Opposition is equally busy in its perennial game of one ‘UP-manship’ and has never effectively taken up the issue of defence preparedness in Parliament.
The media is frivolous as ever and is chasing TRPs; unfortunately there are no TRPs to be gained on defence issues.
This is an attempt by a student of history to give a wake-up call.
What makes matters even worse than ‘normal’ in Delhi today is the inefficiency that has crept in all decision-making due to the ‘Diarchy’ that prevails in Delhi.
For those unfamiliar with the term — this was the system in British India when the rulers of the princely states had all the trappings of power but the British resident exercised the real power.
In its second avatar, the United Progressive Alliance resembles that model with real power in the hands of the Gandhi dynasty while the prime minister has all the trappings of power.
What this has done is the pivotal position of the Prime Minister’s Office and its job of co-ordination and enforcement of the will of the government on the State machinery is severely compromised.
In case of vital decisions on security issues, this can lead to disasters.
The portents indeed are ominous. On December 14, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Parliament that his government does not share the view that China plans to attack India.
Exactly half a century ago, another Indian prime minister stuck to a similar view, until November 21, 1962.
Broadcasting to the nation that day, that prime minister lamented that in this hour of peril, our heart goes to the people of Assam!
As Jawaharlal Nehru spoke to the nation, the civil administration in Tezpur had begun to burn documents and currency in the government treasury, prison doors were thrown open, and everyone made a beeline to get across the Brahmaputra by whatever means.
The stage was being set for surrendering all territory north of the Brahmaputra to the Chinese.
To the people of my generation, the memories of that day give goose pimples even today. The unfortunate similarities do not end there.
Just a year before that, in 1961, the then defence minister V K Krishna Menon had a scrap in public with the highly esteemed army chief, who resigned and then took back his resignation on the prime minister’s advice.
The prime minister then went on to humiliate the general in Parliament. As a consequence, the morale of the army was badly affected.
As someone who has studied that conflict, including the famed Henderson Brooks Report, one can say without any contradiction that ‘loss of morale’ was the single biggest cause of our debacle in 1962.
It is incredible that exactly after half a century we have a similar confrontation between the army chief and the defence ministry bureaucracy.
One of the horror stories of the 1962 conflict with China was the way India made a frenzied effort to arm the soldiers with modern weapons. The insistence on ‘indigenous’ production of arms and inability of the local R&D/factories starved Indian soldiers of tools of war.
So, what do we do?
Brand new rifles (the 7.62 SLR) were airdropped at Dirang Zong, of course without ammunition! As if the soldiers are robots who can instantly master new weapons and begin using it!
Our army’s modernisation is stuck in red tape of the deepest hue.
Import of the critical lightweight howitzer, so important to provide artillery support to infantry in the mountains, is stuck in the courts/CBI clearances and what not.
Anyone familiar with the armed forces remembers the phrase often used by superiors while giving orders, ‘I do not care whether you beg, borrow or steal! I want this done!’
It is time to remind the defence minister that the country expects him to deliver security and efficiency.
His primary job is to ensure honour and safety of the country, and not his honour, that must come last, always and every time (a sort of modified version of the Chetwood pledge that all newly commissioned officers take).
It appears that China is carefully choreographing incidents with India. First, there were several instances of Chinese troops crossing the border, marking their presence. We have dismissed these as ‘minor’ incidents.
Then there was the verbal spat and exchange of notes over the Indian foray into oil exploration in Vietnam waters. The new year saw ill-treatment of an Indian diplomat. Earlier, there were cases of Indian diamond merchants being imprisoned in China. All these could well be dismissed as minor incidents that involve local officials.
If similar incidents were to take place on the India-Pakistan border, they are not to be taken seriously because in Pakistan nobody is in control of the armed forces or civilian officials.
But China is NOT Pakistan — the People’s Liberation Army, the media (including the Internet) are all under tight party/government control in China.
India would be making a grave error of judgment if it considers these incidents as non serious. There seems to be a design behind these orchestrated events, especially the forays by the PLA.
It is time India woke up. Luckily, we do have some time.
At the moment the Himalayan passes are frozen and no military operations are possible.
The likely threat will only emerge in June/July 2012. It must be made clear that one is not talking of an all-out war.
What we must accept is a short, sharp, attack by the Chinese, more in the nature of a slap!
To those who claim that Indo-Chinese trade is too big — one needs to remind them that as a proportion of overall Chinese trade with the world, it is of very little consequence!
It is time the ministry of defence cleaned up its act got cracking in building up the Indian Army’s military capability to face the Chinese threat.
by kiran gopal (View MyPage) on Jan 15, 2012 10:02 PM | Hide replies
China itself seem to be in the verge of crisis…. do you think they are likely to forge an attack on us rather than resolving their internal economic crisis…So I think this is almost impossible……..
by Hamlet ThePrinceOfDenmark (View MyPage) on Jan 15, 2012 10:09 PM
What if they adapt the US-style war-economy balancing system. They would of course love to iron out the internal trouble-makers in the name of wartime crisis. Crisis might actually accelerate the war as it always did for the US of A.
by vuritijagan (View MyPage) on Jan 15, 2012 09:59 PM
Have to observe with eagled eyes for prepare to face it.
Throw out enemies inside
by sidhartha routray (View MyPage) on Jan 15, 2012 09:37 PM
Throw out first the communists sitting inside india to china border…
by paul sebastian (View MyPage) on Jan 15, 2012 09:21 PM | Hide replies
BRIC countries don’t fight. We are a company. India China Bai Bai….
It is good that such foolish people get retired. A small war even will shake even a big economy and Chinese are not fools like Indian media at least…
by gaius octavian (View MyPage) on Jan 14, 2012 11:04 PM
can’t be any worse than what we have now.i hope they launch a full scale invasion.
Spray a rumour – media freedom
by David Dak (View MyPage) on Jan 11, 2012 02:51 PM
It is free to spray a rumour in india. This is called media freedom. What a pathetic.
first get rid of SONIAcongreessss.
by fkjgfkjgfkgjkkka (View MyPage) on Jan 11, 2012 12:29 AM
then fight for freedom of India.
no need to worry
by sangeetha raman (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 10:18 PM | Hide replies
we have seen chinese wepons in kargil and our navy is much more superior than chinese navy our only problem is with our airforce which has to given more importance
Re: no need to worry
by Mrinal parel (View MyPage) on Jan 11, 2012 08:53 AM
Our airforce is far superior to the Chinese . China operates tin cans .
Re: no need to worry
by Daj Joap (View MyPage) on Jan 15, 2012 11:27 AM
in which world you arre living dear………….chinese defense is 5 times more powerfull than us in all three fields…….
Expect a Chinese attack by June/July
by Varma (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 08:37 PM
Even a 3 days war can put China’s economy 30 years back.China will become slave then of USA
by Mrinal parel (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 05:16 PM | Hide replies
China lacks the military capability to take on Yindia. Its tin can weapons are worse than its cell phones. This chap has been rumour mongering since ages. This is not 1962. This is 2012. India is a powerful country now.
attack by june / july
by aaftab kazi (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 05:14 PM
its january and that too begining….plenty of time left, let me take a good sleep.hehehehe
Defence middlemen would like some commission please..
by solgy kottaram (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 04:25 PM | Hide replies
However weak our defense is, China will not give another opportunity for US/NATO to intervene in its neighborhood for another 5-10 years.
Now that threat from Pakistan is minimal, war mongers are hyping up China only to facilitate more defense spending by India which has 300 million hungry people – feed them or we won’t need China for our doom.
Re: Defence middlemen would like some commission please..
by LeftRightBajaoSingh (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 04:29 PM
Trust me – The US neither wants/ nor will want to intervene. It only wants to restrict China to the ASIAN theatre, so that mainland US & the oil nations of middle east can be saved. Obama has been asking the question for a long time- Is India really worth saving? US bases in pakistan are only a long term prep for stopping China here itself.
chinese eat cockroach
by srinivas satyanarayan (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:59 PM
we have plenty for their meal
&leader of future India
by Pawan (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:50 PM | Hide replies
Only solution is to bring strong & able leadership like Narendra Modi in 2014 Election.
He is the only iron leader who can take on Economic & Military might of China
what is there to predict
by Vinayak Deshpande (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:36 PM | Hide replies
china had been openly rejecting visa to Indian athletes and now Indian military official from Arunachalam (for participation in games and military team visit)to emphasize on Arunachal is theirs. better be ready or will have one more repeat of 1962.
Re: what is there to predict
by LeftRightBajaoSingh (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 04:10 PM
The same China though has been giving paper visas openly , freely to people from Kashmir even on the basis of incomplete documents.
good for country
by namakhalaalmulla (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:35 PM | Hide replies
Good for the country. At-least we will get rid of this worst democracy. People will live as slaves under Chinese regime and equality will be there. No corruption.
Re: good for country
by Mogu Engineers (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:55 PM
did previous attack by china ended corruption or china don’t have corruption??
USA with us if china make anything
by suju maniyath (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:27 PM | Hide replies
Now usa is our side . in 1962 usa was in diefferent style.But even if USA with us , short sudden attck of china will make hurt us with big loss.
Our Military is innocent they have treating like servants by our defence officials and Government.It will create another very big loss to us.
Re: USA with us if china make anything
by sai pradeep (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:32 PM
dont worry we have AGNI.
Re: Re: USA with us if china make anything
by Mogu Engineers (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:57 PM
Agni is nothing for chinese. Moreover u shld hav guts to fire Agni and be prepared for sveral Agnis in retaliations of Chinese.
Re: Re: USA with us if china make anything
by Natly (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:58 PM
U think china does not have anything. They are more powerful (military wise and technology wise) than us. If at all there is a war of even a small slap as the author says, we just got back by 20 years in development and can never compete with them again in near future and our super power dreams are all just a dream ( we keep day dreaming)
Reservation for Chinese
by A Singh (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:17 PM
Chinese form a tiny minority in our country. The Government might ward off the Chinese attack by giving reservation to the Chinese.
by sunil mandal (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 03:13 PM
Take seriously fool congressi people.
TRUE ! CHINA – THE MONSTER, IS VYING TO BECOME SUPER POWER !
by Anil Aggarwal (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:55 PM | Hide replies
Writing is clear on the wall.
Colonel’s article is a warning for the sensible and a joke for the idiots, who have no concern or responsibility towards the nation.
by ravi datti (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:42 PM
let them slap 🙂
by raj iyer (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:29 PM | Hide replies
war now onwards shall be short and swift…no long drawn out wars…india should concentrate on air power, missile system and missile defence shield. Indian army is best in the world and can thrash PLA anyday..it needs to be equipped well…
China has never won any war in history!!!
by Palash Bhattacharya (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:23 PM | Hide replies
If one looks at China’s history one will notice that China has never won any war with any country. In the past China was repeatedly ravaged and even conquered by the Mongols. Later on China was occupied by the Japanese empire for a long time. Tibet had a friendship treaty with the British Govt and was safe as long as the British were around in India. Tibet. a primarily tribal and religious country, was later overrun by China. Even against India in 1962 there were several instances where a single Indian soldier or small Indian soldier groups held off large Chinese battalions for several days until reinforcements arrived. If it was not for the spineless and corrupt Govt in India, China would have remained a coward rat like it was when people like Rajiv Gandhi or even Atal Bihari Vajpayee were PMs. More recently Narendra Modi had visited China and he did some very tough talking to which China didn’t mutter a single protest!! Why? .. because China knows people like Modi as PM can be their nemesis unlike the present UPA leaders.
Re: China has never won any war in history!!!
by raheja (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:34 PM
You are wrong dear,
look at the history. Chinese were at war with US on two occasions, one was in Korean War and the other during Vietnamese War. in both the occasion neither did US could win the war. Also it once slapped USSR (now Russia) also due to which there relationship are not at an all time high. They are not afriad of anything.
by Mahesh Baheti (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:20 PM
Very good article…
Before China attacks
by Bira Pandy (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:05 PM | Hide replies
Hand over the longest guest DalaiLama back to the Chinese!!! Atleast, the Chinese will not harm us so hard!!
Re: Before China attacks
by Santosh Nair (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:23 PM
Shame that u r an Indian….he’s our guest u f**l.
Re: Before China attacks
by nambiar thomas (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 12:16 PM
They will make a super chinese dish with Dalailama’s flesh and they will make a super soup with his blood.
china to attack and occupy some parts of NE
by Rahul VA (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 11:59 AM | Hide replies
The way china is being arrogant and being firm on its claim on NE an attack from china has more probablty than even before. India should be prepared for any eventuality
by vinod vinod (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 11:51 AM | Hide replies
youth cong commandos will give a fitting reply to chinese
Re: no way
by nambiar thomas (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 11:54 AM
If china conquer India do we have to eat worms and snakes?
Re: Re: no way
by vinod vinod (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 11:56 AM
dont worry,youth cong workers already stationed themselves near chinese bordr, u can continue eating dirty rice,dal,rasaammu
This is the best news
by Chulbuli Tamanna (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 11:47 AM | Hide replies
China should attack India and finish all the corruption.
A retired colonel si having nightmares!
by Jai Neo (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 11:10 AM | Hide replies
This is nothing but plain scare mongering! Yes, there are issued and disputes between China & India but will a pragmatic China risk international outcry & sanctions by unilaterally launching a strike against a big democratic country like India. Moreover, India & China have mutual trade worth billions!
Re: A retired colonel si having nightmares!
by lustlovelife (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 11:22 AM
U have not read the article completely.
He is not talking about a war but a kargill like situation.
India china trade is hardly 0.7% of Chinas overall trade with the world. Its peanuts for China.
Now chines, he he he
by neelam (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 11:10 AM | Hide replies
Instead of Italian now we will become chinese slave, he he he. Atleast china is a strong country.
Re: Now chines, he he he
by lustlovelife (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 11:24 AM
First Arab invasion. 18% converted
Second Western invasion. 5% converted.
Now Han invasion. ? converted.
Indians are very expert in converting for petty benefits.
So make ur own guess.
Who is worried of whom??
by Vortex (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 10:37 AM
Chinese articles says that india is developing ICBM’s targeting china…When india disclose it’s first nuke powered submarine china was worried. Indian army decided to raise mountain divisions china was worried…
I guess for the first time china is taking india seriously
by samson lawrence (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 10:28 AM
china can never be taken for granted. it is better for mr. a.k. antony to be more cautious.indian army should keep a good watch over the india china border.
Always expect bakwas articles by Col Athale !
by VajpayeeKaulsex (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 10:21 AM | Hide replies
If there is no attack by Augist 20121 then col atale must be impriosoned in his pension whic runs in to lacs must be stopped!
by vinod vinod (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 10:18 AM
usa should immediately dispatch 2 division of us marines to save india from chinese barbarians
by murali dhar (View MyPage) on Jan 10, 2012 10:14 AM | Hide replies
Rich people spend money on reebok, adidas, toyota, samsung.. stop buying foreign brands.. india will become superpower in short period..