Data show India’s coronavirus lockdown may not be working
India is unique among the world’s major nations in having implemented a total lockdown for such a long duration in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
The move crippled about 75% of the economy, according to Japanese investment bank Nomura, which has also predicted an almost 4.5% drop in GDP due to this in financial year 2021. In the April-June quarter alone, the Indian economy would contract by 6.1%, the company has said.
Besides causing massive supply-chain disruptions, the lockdown has internally displaced millions of people.
Did it help?
Prime minister Narendra Modi’s go nment, which today (April 14) extended the lockdown till May 3, has argued that all this was necessary to “flatten the curve” of infections. However, the evidence it offers to back this claim is entirely unconvincing.
An external affairs ministry official, for instance, claimed on April 9 that in the absence of a lockdown, there would have been 820,000 cases by April 15, according to an internal assessment. When asked about it, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) initially said no such study existed and later clarified that the claim was made based on a “statistical extrapolation” by the ministry of health as depicted in chart 1.
So what is the right way to know if the lockdown helped?
In the absence of an official reference model in India, all we have to go on is aggregate data on total confirmed cases nationwide, which is updated every day. The chart below plots the natural logarithm of total cases on the vertical axis with the time index on the horizontal.
It shows that after a basically flat portion with low growth in new cases, India entered the exponential phase, beginning March 4 or so, as captured by the straight line in the log of confirmed cases. Note that this exponential growth kicked in several weeks in advance of the lockdown and continued up to merely two days before the initial lockdown period was to end.
An optimist might perhaps see a minuscule flattening of the curve from around March 30, but this is only a week into the lockdown. Given that the virus has a two-week incubation period, it obviously cannot be attributed to the lockdown. What is more, several states had initiated their own lockdowns in advance of the national one. Karnataka, for instance, announced one on March 13, Maharashtra on March 20.
If the lockdown had any effect, you would expect the slope of this line to flatten or bend toward the horizontal axis.
Given the significant economic and human cost suffered due to it, the lockdown must, thus, be accounted for as a failure.
The bigger problem is that a focus on the lockdown takes away from the crucial question of ramping up testing.
There is no question that testing in India remains low by global standards. India has so far conducted over 200,000 tests as compared to a 100,000 per day in the US. The tourist hotspot of Goa, which hosts visitors from all over the world and, therefore, is a likely virus hotspot, has so far carried about only a little over 400 tests for a population of 1.5 million. Yet it remains under total lockdown, reporting only seven cases and zero deaths till now.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49714.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
So, what is your solution?
I spent 6 weeks backpacking across India, and believe me, it is IMPOSSIBLE to social distance because of the masses of people....
Without lockdown it should be doubling every 3 days. Now it is doubling in 5 to 6 days and slowing down.
Fartz news is a prime example of how not all news companies are factual and unbiased.
You must be joking that lockdown is not helping India. If there was no lockdown it would be 100 times NY based on the density and population of India.
Paid news, Fake news. Simply ignore this.
Fake media is contradicting John Hopkins University data
member of NO MA'AM
A country with that kind of population density, and that level of poverty (lots of migrant workers sleeping outdoors and such)...it's gonna be tough and take a lot longer than other places might. Rough sledding. Good luck, though.
Yahoo is officially 'fake news' channel...
These as paid to present the one sided opinions about what India is doing. I am from India and I can tell you it is lot different on the ground. The reporters especially working for publications from the west present a dire scenario. India has the best leadership in place since her Independence in 1947.
In a billion plus people Death toll will be almost impossible to be accurate. too many poor people must have died and their is no account for these unfortunate poor people
what happened to drinking cow p?
Its India, there is like families of 20+ people living in single room apartments.... Who's fault is that?
You gotta have clean water to make the soap work.
Fake News Yahoo!!
India's lock-down would have worked great if the tablighi muslem group had not sabotaged the efforts.
Another biased article planted by Modi baitors defying all figures and facts on ground. India is performing far better than any other country in the world and one cannot take away the credit for this from the present administration.
Shutdown or not, India or any developing nation do not have enough testing capacity to test its population. The masses will get sick, some will die, many will get better, but no one will know if it was corona or not.
India and China, two to never trust when it comes to giving the real number of the covid19 deaths.
bbc/AF/QZ/Bloomberg are desperate to see India having issues. No such luck.
Does Quartz ever publish anything good about India?
At least its way better than US and most European countries. India is trying their best.
Keep the panic alive, media! LOL!