三泰虎

1990年墨西哥和巴西的人均GDP是中国近10倍,现在究竟出了什么问题,居然落后中国了

In 1990, Mexico and Brazil had GDP per capita nearly 10 times of China. What went wrong with Mexico and Brazil that they are now behind?

1990年,墨西哥和巴西的人均GDP是中国的近10倍。墨西哥和巴西究竟出了什么问题,现在居然落后于中国?

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以下是Quora读者的评论:

Anond Jarenmoon, Master Degree in Economic from Kasetsart University (2007)

A state of development. China From importer to inventor and export it.

这是一个发展的过程,中国从进口国到发明国和出口国。

 

Bill Sands, former Philosopher at Profound Monkey (2001-2019)

Nothing is wrong with them.. you ask the wrong question.. the right question is.. What the hell is China doing so amazingly well?

他们并没有出什么大问题。你问错了问题。正确的问题是…中国究竟做了什么,表现得如此亮眼?

 

Juan Carlos

I dont know about mexico, i am Brazilian. In Brazil was made the worst investiments in education, utilities and market promotions than ever. Taxes, poor return and badly management of taxpayers money.

我不了解墨西哥,我是巴西人。巴西在教育、公共事业和市场推动方面的投资是有史以来最差的。高税收、低回报、对纳税人资金管理不善。

 

Marcos Bidart de Novaes, Partner (2010-present)

May be the right question is what went right with China, a co-st country with a controlled economy.

或许正确的问题应该这么问,中国这个经济受到控制的国家到底有什么灵丹妙药?

 

Jose Luis Malaquias, Macroeconomics nerd

Not really a problem with Mexico and Brazil, which approximately maintained or even increased their level of prosperity. It was China, instead, that grew enormously, at a historically unprecedented level for several dozens of years.

墨西哥和巴西并没有什么问题,这两个国家的繁荣程度基本得到了保持甚至有所提高。但另一边,是中国以几十年来前所未有的水平实现了巨大增长。

 

Philip Rabe, former Construction Coordinator (1988-2013)

Funny you assumed Mexico and Brazil fell behind. You didn’t imagine that China simply zoomed ahead? Like they are doing to the US with Trump’s silly trade war

真有趣,你以为墨西哥和巴西落后了。你就没想过只是中国前进速度太快吗?就像他们在特朗普发动的贸易战中对美国所做的那样。

 

Johnson Ho, spent almost 10 years in coding

It’s easy. Because they are too far to heaven, and to close to American. The only efficient thing they can supply to the world(actually, American is the world to them in the last 20+ years), are drugs. In other area, they can not fight with the American industrys, what else can they do?

很简单。因为他们离天堂太远了,离美国人又太近了。他们能提供给世界的唯一有效的东西(实际上,过去20多年来,美国人就是他们的世界)就是毒品。在其他领域,他们无法与美国工业抗衡,他们还能做什么呢?

 

James Feigenbaum, Ph.D. Economics, University of Iowa (2003)

Brazil has faltered recently because of political shenanigans, but it was considered a high flyer too in the 2000s. Mexico has actually been a fairly steady grower since the 90s. The answer is really that China was able to achieve substantial growth because it started out so poor. China's problem now is that it has exhausted all the easy avenues of growth.

巴西最近因为政-治动荡而步履蹒跚,但在2000年代,它也曾被认为是一个雄心勃勃的国家。墨西哥自90年代以来一直是一个相当稳定的经济增长地区。这个问题的答案是,中国之所以能够实现可观的增长,是因为它起点太低了。中国现在的问题是,它已经用尽了所有简单易行的增长途径。

 

Jose Alejandro, Bs U.S. Government Policies, University of Maryland University College (1992)

In Mexico they are not allowed to build bycicles, air conditions neither motocycles trucks cars and the junk that Americans want why? Because back in the 1950 s or there abouts the American companies said we can build them for Mexico cheper that Mexico can manufacture them and I believe Mexico signed an agreement I believe for a hundred years that they )Mexico) will not develop their industry I say that because at that time I was in the 5th grade in Mexico and it was a big push by the teacher telling us to use our brain and develop and or invent the Mexican industry but when Mexico I believe made the agreement the teachers quit pushing us to develop the country, because we are at the wilm of USA the Mexican industry might take another 50 years or so to develop it (somebody out there might have a copy of newspspers to thst effect I like to hear them, thanks) I think. I do not know anout Brazil i heard they developed their own computer and programs also I heard that they developef their own car sorry that they did not developed the Brazilian industry to the American level.

在墨西哥,人们不得制造摩托车,空调,摩托车,卡车,汽车和美国人想要的垃圾,为什么? 因为早在20世纪50年代左右,美国公司说我们可以为墨西哥制造一切,价格比墨西哥制造的更低,我相信墨西哥签署了一项协议,我相信100年来,墨西哥不会发展他们的工业。我这么说是因为那时我在墨西哥读五年级,老师告诉我们要开动脑筋搞发明,为墨西哥工业的发展努力,但当墨西哥达成协议后,老师们就不再勉励我们发展国家了,现在墨西哥产业可能还需要50年左右的时间才能发展起来。我对巴西不了解,我听说他们开发了自己的电脑和程序,也听说他们研发了自己的汽车,很抱歉他们还没把巴西的工业提升到美国的水平。

 

Roy Marchand, Retired software developer (50 years experience)

It is not so much what went wrong with Brazil and Mexico as is about what China did right.

与其说巴西和墨西哥出了什么问题,不如说中国做对了什么。

The Chinese leadership wanted to make things better for their people.

中国领导人想让人民生活得更好。

They study successful countries to see how the got there.

他们分析成功的国家,看看他们是如何取得成功的。

They invested in infrastructure and education for the long term. They wrote laws that attracted investment and laws that favored Chinese enterprises.

于是他们对基础设施和教育进行了长期投资。他们制定了吸引投资的法律和有利于中国企业的法律。

Then they executed a plan designed to generate export revenue, reward manufacturing with good profits, and raise the standard of living for their people.

随后他们执行了一项计划,旨在创造出口收入,用丰厚的利润反哺制造业,并提高本国人民的生活水平。

The executed the American game plan to perfection to become the second biggest economy in the world on their way to number 1.

他们完美地执行了美国的策略,成为世界上第二大经济体,并大步行进在通往第一名的路上。

They still have some problems to solve but the future looks bright

他们仍有一些问题要解决,但前途是光明的。

 译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49535.html 译者:Joyceliu

 

Qi Chen, Electrical Engineer (2017-present)

Because GDP per capita is a terrible measure of national strength and development.

因为人均GDP是衡量国家实力和发展的糟糕指标。

GDP itself is only a rough impression of the nation’s strength and heavily skewed for smaller countries. For example, industries such as tourism, finance, real estate adds little to the nation’s long term strength, but all of them accounts to a large portion of the GDP in most countries.

国内生产总值(GDP)本身只是一个国家实力的粗略印象,而且严重向小国倾斜。例如,旅游、金融、房地产等行业对国家的长期实力贡献不大,但它们在大多数国家的GDP中都占了很大的比重。

This is, of course, not even taking into the account of China aggressively devaluing its currency in the 1980s, thus drastically lowering its GDP per capita.

当然,这甚至还没有考虑到中国在上世纪80年代大幅贬值人民币,从而大幅降低了其人均GDP。

The truth is, Brazil and Mexico was never in the league of China since the PRC was found. By 1970s, China has been able to manufacturing pretty much anything under the sun with a coherent and stable internal political system. While Brazil and Mexico certainly has good looking numbers, their internal development simply isn’t up to par to compete with first rate nations

事实是,自从中华人民共和国成立以来,巴西和墨西哥从未加入过中国的阵线。20世纪70年代的时候,中国已经能够在连贯和稳定的内部体系下,制造出几乎一切商品。尽管巴西和墨西哥的经济数据确实不错,但它们的国内发展水平根本达不到与一流国家竞争的水平。

 

Andres Garcia, I have lived and studied in several American countries

I will talk only about Mexico, because its is the case I know better. But first, a clarification. What you mention didn’t happen only when comparing with China: for several decades, GDP per capita growth has been also slower in Mexico than in most Latin American countries, as you can check in the table at the bottom. The same difference is repeated in other areas, like minimal wage and reduction of poverty. You can find exact figures in the document quoted toward the end of this answer.

我只谈墨西哥,因为我更了解墨西哥的情况。但首先,澄清一下。你提到的不仅仅是与中国相比:几十年来,墨西哥的人均GDP增长速度也比大多数拉美国家要慢,你可以看看下面的表格。同样的差别在其他领域也存在,比如最低工资和减少贫困。你可以在这个答案后面引用的文档中找到确切的数字。

Regarding Mexico, in my opinion the main answer for your question has only one word: NAFTA. Until the eighties Mexico was the Latin American titan, diplomatically and economically. It had a nascent but solid manufacturing sector, and at that time many people believed that Mexico was going to be the first “developed” Latin American country. It even had a cultural influence on the rest of the region that it doesn’t have now (it is still important culturally, but its current influence cannot be compared with the influence it had before, which is also helped by Mexico’s current tendency to look more toward the North than toward the South). The Treaty of Tlatelolco (1967), that forbids the development and placement of nuclear weapons in Latin America, can still be seen as the main legacy of the golden age of Mexican diplomacy to world affairs, because it showed the way to other later treaties in inhabited areas of the world that guarantee that today half of the Earth is in a nuclear-weapon free zone.

关于墨西哥,我认为你的问题的主要答案只有一个词:北美紫游贸易协定。直到80年代,墨西哥在外交和经济上都是拉丁美洲的巨人。当时,墨西哥的制造业刚刚起步,但很稳定,许多人认为墨西哥将成为第一个“发达”的拉美国家,甚至对该地区的其他国家产生过文化影响,现在已经丧失了(在文化上依然很重要,但目前的影响无法与以前相比了,这也得益于墨西哥目前更倾向于向北看,而不是向南看)。禁止在拉丁美洲发展和部署核武器的《特拉特洛尔科条约》(1967年)仍然可以被视为墨西哥外交黄金时代留给世界事务的主要遗产,因为它为后来世界上有人居住地区的其他条约指明了方向,这些条约保证今天地球的一半处于无核武器区。

But in the eighties there was a debt crisis in Latin America, which affected Mexico badly. For the region, it is still the worst economic event since the Great Depression, and that crisis is also the main reason why so many Latin Americans don’t trust international economic institutions. By the 1970s, at the same time that the economies of Europe and the U.S. were suffering thanks to the increase in oil prices, the Latin American countries were growing at more than 6%. So, the main origin of the crisis was extremely bad advice in the seventies, and a couple of arm-twistings to make Latin American countries request credits to Western commercial banks, most of them from the U.S., at a time when those banks had liquidity, thanks mostly to the petrodollars deposited there by the OPEP countries, but few customers were requesting large loans. So, even now, you can see protests in Latin American cities each time a “world” institution suggests something (even when arguably many things have changed and they are not the same institutions that believed in “one size fits all” solutions, when developing-nations’ ministers with a PhD in economics had to follow the “advice” of IMF bureaucrats and World Bank interns.) In fact, it is even difficult to get articles in English that at least assign some responsibility to the U.S. banks on the creation of the Latin American debt crisis, and to the IMF on the social problems that the crisis brought, but they are very common in the Spanish speaking world.

但是在80年代,拉丁美洲发生了债务危机,严重影响了墨西哥。对拉美地区来说,这仍然是大萧条以来最严重的经济事件,而这场危机也是许多拉美人不信任国际经济机构的主要原因。到上世纪70年代,在欧美经济因油价上涨而陷入困境的同时,拉美国家的经济增长率超过了6%。在拉美国家向西方商业银行申请信贷的时候(这些银行大多数来自美国),当时这些银行有流动性,这主要归功于欧佩克国家在那里存下的石油美元,但很少有客户要求大额贷款。所以,即使是现在,每当一个“世界”机构提出一些建议时(即便许多事情已经改变,也不是相信“一刀切”解决方案的同一个机构,当拥有经济学博士学位的发展中国家部长们不得不听从国际货币基金组织的“建议”时),拉丁美洲的城市都会发生抗议活动。事实上,我们甚至很难找到把拉美债务危机的产生部分责任归给美国银行,把危机带来的社会问题归给国际货币基金组织的英文文章,但这类文章在西班牙语国家非常普遍。

Given the difficulties it was facing, and despite its traditional lack of trust in its Northern neighbor, Mexico decided to listen to the U.S. go nment siren song. If Mexico signed a free-trade deal with the U.S., they said, it would get a rocket on its back, because a free-trade deal would put the three North American economies in equal conditions. Given this, NAFTA would help Mexico to restore its economic growth to the rate it had before the crisis, and Mexico would soon become a developed nation.

考虑到墨西哥面临的困难,尽管墨西哥传统上对其北方邻国缺乏信任,但它还是决定听听美国政府的警笛声。如果墨西哥与美国签署紫游贸易协定,它会背上火箭,因为紫游贸易协定将使这三个北美经济体处于平等的条件。鉴于此,北美紫游贸易协定将帮助墨西哥恢复危机前的经济增长速度,墨西哥将很快成为一个发达国家。

In 1993, Mexico signed NAFTA. Obviously, everything that was promised didn’t happen. Unable to compete with foreign industries without real technological transference, and without ways to defend its economy against the power of the dollar (U.S. companies and investors only needed to ask for credits in their own currency to buy assets in Mexico,) Mexico lost in practice its manufacturing sector and the real conditions of its workers fell to the bottom, because labor laws and unions were affected. Right now, the number of factories in Mexico is huge, but most are not Mexican beyond the appearance: they are mostly owned by U.S. corporations and foreign investors. For most economical purposes of U.S. corporations, though not politically, after NAFTA they could treat Mexico in practice as the 51st U.S. state.

1993年,墨西哥签署了北美紫游贸易协定。但很显然,之前所承诺的一切都没有发生。因为没有真正实施技术转让,墨西哥无法与外国工业竞争,没有办法捍卫其对美元的经济力量 (美国公司和投资者购买墨西哥资产只需申请本国货币的信贷)。由于劳工法和工会受到影响,墨西哥的制造业在实践中损失惨重,工人的实际状况也降到了谷底。目前,墨西哥的工厂数量庞大,但除了表面上看,大多数工厂都不是墨西哥人:它们大多由美国公司和外国投资者拥有。在北美紫游贸易协定之后,美国公司出于最经济的目的,尽管不是出于政治目的,但实际上可以将墨西哥视为美国的第51个州。

This means that U.S. corporations could use 120 million of Mexicans as cheap workforce, without the need to apply the same labor laws that they needed to follow in the remaining fifty states or pay the same salaries, while the U.S. go nment could disregard the social problems derived from that system in Mexico. The boom of the maquiladoras after NAFTA, where workers work up to 75 hours per week earning the equivalent to 8 dollars per day, created large benefits for the U.S. corporations using them, even when most of the products of those factories were counted as Mexican exports. Given this, hundreds of the largest U.S. companies had a huge increase in productivity in the nineties, which contributed to a new economic boom in the U.S., but it was not U.S. based, and therefore became another factor, though not the main one, for the huge increase of economic inequality in the U.S. during the last 40 years.

这意味着美国公司可以使用1.2亿墨西哥人作为廉价劳动力,而不需要实施他们在剩下的五十个州实施的相同劳动法,或支付同样的工资,美国政府可以忽视来自墨西哥的系统的社会问题。北美紫游贸易协定签订后,美墨联营工厂蓬勃发展,工人每周工作75个小时,每天的收入仅相当于8美元,这为使用这些工厂的美国公司创造了巨大的利益,即使这些工厂的大多数产品都被算作墨西哥出口产品。有鉴于此,上世纪90年代,数百家美国大公司的生产率大幅提高,为美国经济的新一轮繁荣做出了贡献,但这一切并不是立足于美国。这在过去的40年里,成了另一个因素,虽然算不上主要因素,导致了美国经济的不平等程度大幅增加。

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