三泰虎

美国考虑阻止通用电气向中国出售飞机引擎,你认为接下来会发生什么呢

The U.S. weighs blocking GE engine sales for China's new airplane. What do you think is going on and what will happen?

美国考虑阻止通用电气向中国销售新飞机的引擎。你认为接下来会发生什么呢?

以下是Quora读者的评论:

Jack Wilson

It's always interesting to see the answers to questions from people that have no working relationship or experience in the fields they are writing about and add a political shot about Trump which is not even a part of what is going on. That being said, GE is not the only one withholding technology in the marketplace. If you owned a company that produced a product that was very popular, would you sell or give that product to someone who could copy and build a version of the product and put you out of business. If you would, you wouldn't be in business very long. In manufacturing, sooner or later, all your competitors will have your technology and that is business these days and patents cost money to draw up and enforce. Sometimes you hope to have enough sales from the product to cover the initial investment of developing, design, testing, and other costs incurred in building the product before your competitors have a share of the market. That temporary “lion's share” of the market is hoped to last long enough to recover the original investment and make enough profit to move on to development of other projects. Good business is based on sound decisions and not political ones. While I was working at General Dynamics, we sold a stripped down version of the F-16 to Israel. Upon delivery of the new aircraft, they were gutted and rebuilt by Israeli technicians. The end result was an aircraft that was superior in many ways to our version we sold to the United States. We knew that this procedure was happening and withheld the “brain" section and most of cockpit. Nobody said a word about this in all the years it has gone on and never made it political in any form. I think people need to study more about business practices in order to discern between political and business decisions. This was a business decision.

看到那些在自己所回答问题的领域毫无工作关系或经验的人给出的答案,是一件非常有趣的事,还加上了特朗普的政治狙击,这都哪儿跟哪儿呢。话虽如此,通用电气并不是唯一一家在市场上保留技术的公司。如果你拥有一家生产一种非常受欢迎的产品的公司,你会把这种产品卖给或送给那些能够复制和制造这种产品的人,然后让自己破产吗?如果你愿意,你就无法在这个行业呆很长时间。在制造业内,或早或晚,你所有的竞争对手都会掌握你的技术,而这就是现在的商业,专利的制定和实施都要花钱。有时,你希望产品有足够的销售额,并在竞争对手占有市场份额之前,收回开发、设计、测试的初始投资,以及为开发产品而产生的其他成本。人们希望这一暂时的市场“最大份额”状态能持续足够长的时间,以收回最初的投资,并获得足够的利润,继续开发其他项目。好的生意是建立在正确的决定上的,而不是政治上的。当我在通用动力公司工作时,我们向以色列出售了一架F-16的简化版。新飞机交付后,由以色列技术人员进行了拆卸和重建。最终的结果是这架飞机在很多方面都比我们卖给美国的那架好。这么多年来,没有人提起过这件事,也从来没有以任何形式把它政治化。我认为,人们需要更多地研究商业实践,以便区分政治决策和商业决策。这是一个商业决定。

 

Jean-Yves Landry, IT Security Architect, IT Technology Architect (1980-present)

USA is a funny country under Trump. Trump want China to purchase more from USA to help give some equilibrium to the commercial balance. But he put restriction on anything a little HIGH TECH.

特朗普领导下的美国是个滑稽有趣的国家。特朗普希望中国从美国购买更多商品,以帮助商业平衡。但他对任何带点高科技的东西都横加限制。

He and Boeing are very scare that the C919 will come to concurrence the antiquated BOEING 737. So, they will try to slow their progress by forbidding Honeywell and GE to sales their stuff to China.

他和波音公司都非常担心C919会与过时的波音737并驾齐驱。因此,他们试图通过禁止霍尼韦尔和通用电气向中国销售他们的产品来阻挠他们的进展。

Boeing did not learn when the strategy to bug down the Canadian Bombardier C-Series backfire and the plane development was “Given” to Airbus for only a token amount. Now the plane is renamed A-220 and is likely to be much more competitive then ever before.

波音不知道对拦截加拿大庞巴迪公司C系列的策略何时反扑,飞机的研发“交给”空客,只象征性地收了一些金额。现在这架飞机被重新命名为A-220,可能比以往任何时候都更有竞争力。

So, this is a dumb as it get. If China decide not to purchase any plane from BOEING… the market is gone overnight.

所以,这是一个愚蠢的做法。如果中国决定不从波音购买任何飞机……市场一夜之间就消失了。

Meanwhile, I think the Chinese will just call Thales for the avionics and Roll-Royce for the engine (or Safran) and call it a day.

与此同时,我认为中国只需联系泰雷兹采购航空电子设备,联系劳斯莱斯(或赛峰)采购引擎,然后问题就都解决了。

If the USA were successful in preventing the sales from all Europeans and Americans countries (Both North and South America)… The Chinese will probably call the Russian or Indian to get some solutions… and get ready to develop their own.

如果美国成功地阻止了所有欧洲和美国国家(包括北美和南美)的对华销售,中国可能会联系俄罗斯或印度寻求一些解决方案,并做好开发自己版本的准备。

It is not like USA can prevent the Chinese from copying the technology if they so wish. They operate enough plane from Boeing and Airbus to get access to all the technology they want.

美国不可能阻止中国人复制他们的技术,如果他们愿意的话。他们有足够的波音和空客的飞机来获得他们想要的所有技术。

So, this part of the America first (really meaning USA) is likely to weaken USA on short order. More and more, USA is loosing any kind of respect from others countries.

所以,美国至上的这部分很可能在短期内削弱美国的力量。美国越来越无法赢得其他国家的尊重。

 

Krishna Kumar Subramanian, Aircraft Engineer, Aircraft Systems Educator

However much you are in awe of China, jet engine development is a tough proposition.

Hundreds are tried and still , trying.

Hundreds have failed.

无论你多么敬畏中国,喷气引擎的研发都是难事。

数以百计的人尝试过,现在仍然在摸索。

有数百人失败了。

Without a mature Western jet powerplant, the C-919 is effectively out of consideration of anybody in the world outside China.

Which means it is effectively DEAD.

如果没有装配成熟可靠的西方喷气式引擎,实际上C-919会是中国以外全世界任何人都不会考虑的。

这也就意味着这个飞机毫无前途。

 

Yevgeniy Leto

I guess they will have to go with Rolls Royce. I can’t find a more stupid thing to do. It is not as if they don’t have GE engines already. They are in the thousands of planes they bought from Boeing. I will just say that I am glad that I sold my GE stocks

我想他们只能选择劳斯莱斯了。我找不到比这更蠢的事了。这并不是说他们已经失去通用的引擎了。他们从波音公司购买了数千架飞机。我只想说,我很高兴我已经卖掉了通用电气的股票。

译文来源:三泰虎   http://www.santaihu.com/49436.html 译者:Joyceliu

 

Nicolaas Manoppo, Engineering & Business Consultant

It is a smart move. There is price and performance factors in selecting the best supplier. Blocking the sales of GE engine will increase China airplane’s price and hence the US airplane will have a better position. FYI, jet engine is not a commodity item.

这是一个明智的举动。选择最好的供应商要考虑价格和性能因素。阻止通用引擎的销售将抬高中国飞机的价格,因此美国飞机将更有优势。仅供参考,喷气式引擎不是商品。

 

Jackson Lee

It mostly is just bluffing and bargaining tactics, however it does ring a bell for many Chinese who might have been foolishly believing the principle of live and let live.

这基本上就是一个虚张声势和讨价还价的策略,然而,这对许多中国人来说却很有意义,他们之前可能一直愚蠢地信奉“待人宽容,和平共存”的原则。

You can not simply BUY your modernization and true independence, in fact C919 does have a domestic engine(CJ 1000) in development phase. There are already prototypes in 2017, though it still requires more testing and optimization before it could be trusted. It is there anyway.

你不能单纯靠采购来实现现代化和真正的独立,事实上C919确实有个处于研发阶段的国产引擎(CJ1000)。2017年已经有了原型,但仍然需要更多的测试和优化才能有可信度。但是它就在那儿了。

GE engines are not only used in C919, and the JV company does have another investor besides GE, we would have to see what French is gonna say about that. The blockade export of such engines would probably lead to two things.

通用电气的引擎不单单用于C919,而且合资公司除了通用电气之外还有其他投资者,我们要看看法国人会怎么说。这种引擎的出口封锁可能会导致两件事。

1.Accelerating the development of Chinese domestic engines and mounting on C919, though it would delay delivery of this aircraft for years.

2.Sale of Boeing aircraft in China would be impacted severely, and AIRBUS could laugh its ass off if French did not play the game with US.

1.加速C919的国产引擎的研发及安装,尽管这将使得这种飞机推迟数年交付。

2.波音飞机在中国的销售将受到严重影响,如果法国不同意美国的做法,空客可能会爽翻过去。

I am not surprised if lobbyist groups paid by GE are busy doing their job against such motion, and it is

如果由通用电气出资的游说团体忙着反对这一动议,我并不感到意外,事实的确如此。

C919 needs foreign engines because it is civilian and has to consider the air worthiness certificate if it plans sale beyond China. In the worst scenario, it only flies within China, the domestic aviation market is still big enough for C919 to grow if we take out 737 series.

C919需要外国引擎,因为它是民用飞机,如果它计划在中国以外销售,就必须考虑航空适航证书。在最坏的情况下,这架飞机只在中国国内执飞,如果我们去掉737系列,中国国内航空市场对C919一样足够大。

For military transporter such as Y20, the goal is always using domestic supply in case of possible blockade and embargo, though it used Russian engines(D30) to start with. From the published satellite photo in 2018, we could already see the domestic WS-20 were mounted under the right wing, while the left were still Russian D30.

对于Y20这样的军用运输机,其目标是始终使用国内供应,以防可能的封锁和禁运,尽管它一开始使用的是俄罗斯引擎(D30)。从2018年公布的卫星照片中,我们已经可以看到右翼下方已经安装了国产的WS-20,而左翼下安装的仍然是俄罗斯的D30。

1.jpg

While the testing on the Russian YL76 has been going on for years

而对俄罗斯“YL76”的测试已经进行了多年。

2.jpg

 

Alexander Serebriansky, Military history enthusiast

US is is protecting its own aircraft industry. In principle, they are doing the right thing. But the consequences may be unpredictable.

美国正在保护自己的飞机工业。原则上,他们做的是对的。但后果可能难以预料。

First, a disclaimer. Lots of people started bashing US for “un-sporty” conduct, and using state leverage to promote their industry.

第一,免责声明。许多人开始抨击我们的“非体育”行为,并利用政府杠杆来促进他们的产业。

Without GE engines, China will be forced to look somewhere else to buy engines for their C919 project. They can try buying engines from CFM. However, CFM is jointly owned by US and France, so US can have some leverage on CFM as well not to sell engines to China. France themselves (Airbus, lol!) may not be happy about Chinese competition either, so they can agree not to sell engines to China.

如果没有通用电气的引擎,中国将被迫从其他地方购买用于C919项目的引擎。他们可以尝试从CFM购买引擎。然而,CFM是由美国和法国共同拥有的,所以美国可以对CFM施加一些影响,也可以不向中国出售引擎。法国自己(空中客车,哈哈!)也可能对中国的竞争不满,所以他们也可能同意不向中国出售引擎。

China can turn to Russia, who produces their own PD-14 engine and its derivatives. Although Russia consistently failed in putting these engines to the international market, and, most likely, for good reasons - producing, marketing and supporting a competitive commercial engine is a totally different thing than producing a competitive military engine.

中国可以求助于俄罗斯,俄罗斯生产PD-14引擎及其衍生产品。尽管俄罗斯一直未能将这些引擎推向国际市场,而且很可能有充分的理由——生产、销售和支持有竞争力的商用引擎与生产有竞争力的军用引擎完全是两码事。

Finally, China can send everyone to hell and build their own engine, CJ-1000. This is the most likely path, and that’s where things can become unpredictable.

最后,中国可能撇开所有人,建造自己的引擎,CJ-1000。这是最有可能的路径,也是事情有可能无法预料的地方。

China improved its technological capacity tremendously in the last decade or two. So they ultimately can succeed in developing a competitive engine. If this happen, US decision would not hamper Chinese technological advance, but rather accelerate it. China will develop an expertise in building and marketing commercial engines; it will build a capacity to produce these engines; and COMAC will eventually become a 3rd major player in aircraft production, pushing Boeing and Airbus out of their zone of comfort. If this happens, these will be bad news for the US in the long run.

在过去的一二十年里,中国极大地提高了它的技术能力。因此,他们最终能够成功地开发出具有竞争力的引擎。如果这种情况发生,美国的决定无法阻碍中国的技术进步,反而只会加速促进。中国制造和销售商用引擎的专业技术将一步步成长;它将获得生产这些引擎的能力;中国商飞最终将成为第三大飞机制造商,将波音和空客挤出舒适区。如果出现这种情况,从长远来看,这对美国来说会是个坏消息。

But, as it was said, producing and especially marketing a new competitive engine is a tremendous effort. Very, very few nations and companies have capability to do that, and these players have a major head start over COMAC.

但是,正如它所说的,生产和销售新的有竞争力的引擎是需要巨大的努力。很少有国家和公司有能力做到这一点,这些公司的起步比中国商飞要早很多。

Most likely, things will go somewhere in the middle. China will develop an OK’ish engine that, nevertheless, won’t be very competitive among the developed nations due to both political, technological and business reasons. But thanks to the state support (or pressure, if you like it better) Chinese carriers will buy hundreds of C919 planes with CJ-1000 engines, paying off for its development, and, most importantly, giving Chinese industry an opportunity to further develop and refine their engine technology. Still not good for Boeing/Airbus, as they lose Chinese market.

最有可能的情况是,事情会不好也不坏。中国将研发出一个还算OK的引擎,然而,由于政治、技术和商业上的原因,它在发达国家中不会具备很大的竞争力。但是,由于国家的支持(或者压力,如果你更喜欢的话),中国的航空公司将购买数百架使用CJ-1000引擎的C919飞机,为其研发买单,最重要的是,这给了中国工业一个机会,进一步发展和完善了他们的引擎技术。对波音/空客来说仍然不是什么好事,因为他们失去了中国市场。

Bottom line, from the US standpoint, such ban is a right step. US is supporting their industry - just like China is supporting theirs.  In this case US would not end up facing a new, dynamic competitor that is already pushing US away from being #1 world superpower. American corporate greed allowed for this situation to develop.

总之,从美国的立场来看,这样的禁令是正确的。美国支持他们的工业——就像中国支持他们的工业一样。在这种情况下,美国最终将不会遭遇一个新的、充满活力的竞争者,这个竞争者正把我们从世界第一超级大国的位置上推开。美国企业的贪婪纵容了这种情况的发展。

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