三泰虎

如果没有中国商品,印度能撑下去吗?如果印度全面禁止中国进口会对经济产生什么影响?

What is your view on Boycott China? Can India survive without Chinese import? What would be the economic impact of India banning all Chinese imports?

你对抵制中国有什么看法?如果没有中国的进口商品,印度能撑下去吗?如果印度全面禁止中国进口会对经济产生什么影响?

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以下是Quora读者的评论:

Rudra Ghodke, Please Do Like Us On FB 

As far as this year is concerned, its a bad idea to ban Chinese products because the goods that are to be sold in Diwali are not imported a day before Diwali. They land here in wholesale markets few months before and then are supplied to the whole country in the retail stores.

Now, the problem is that all the Indian store owners have purchased a lot of Chinese goods fir Diwali and its stored in their godowns. China has already sold the goods and have made their profits.

Now if we ban Chinese goods, its the Indian Businessmen who will be affected rather than China. The Chinese Product Ban initiative became prominent a few weeks or month ago but the goods have already been purchased by Indian retailers and if they are unable to sell it, it will be a loss to India indirectly.

So as of now, we should not ban the Chinese products.

But we can start a campaign for a complete ban on Chinese Products from say next year which will be effective. Also, for this campaign to be successful, we will need to manufacture lot of goods in India for which we are dependent (a lot) on China

就今年而言,抵制中国货不是个好主意,因为排灯节那天出售的商品不会是排灯节前一天才进口的。几个月前这些商品就会进入印度的批发市场,然后通过零售商店供应到全国各地。

现在的问题是,所有的印度店主都买了很多中国产的排灯节商品,把它们储存在仓库里。中国已经出售了这些商品,并获得了利润。

现在如果我们抵制中国货,受影响的将是印度商人,而不是中国人。中国的产品禁令在几周前或一个月前开始引起关注,但印度零售商当时已经购买了这些商品,如果他们现在无法销售这些商品,将给印度带来间接损失。

所以现在,我们不应该抵制中国货。

但我们可以发起一场运动,从明年开始全面抵制中国货,这会很有效果的。同样,为了这次运动的成功,我们需要在印度生产大量的商品,因为我们在很大程度上依赖着中国。

 

Lokendra Sharma, A Critical Analyst

Looking at the Present Situation of Indian Industries it can be clearly stated that India can survive the without Chinese imports. I’ll tell you why.

Most of the Chinese imports are Business to Business and thus provide Indian manufacturing units cheap and reliable raw materials and machinery tools. 

Because of being cheap as well as reliable Indian businesses heavily depend on Chinese counterparts due to Dearth of substitutes.

Thus only those Chinese goofs can be boycotted which are Business to Consumers which are so small that it wont literally affect the Chinese economy.

看看印度工业的现状,我可以清楚地告诉大家,即便没有中国的进口商品,印度也可以撑下去。我来告诉你为什么。

中国的大部分进口商品都是企业对企业的贸易,向印度提供了廉价可靠的原材料和机械工具。

由于价格低廉且可靠,印度企业缺乏替代品,严重依赖中国同行。

因此,要抵制的是那些企业对个人的中国商人,他们的规模很小,不会真正影响中国经济。

 

Anuvrat Bundela, works at Freelancing

Before bycott china.we must assure that we have that much big infrastructure to fulfill our population needs.and india can survive without chinese import.

在抵制中国之前,我们必须确保我们有那么多的大型基础设施来满足我们的人口需求。没有中国的进口,印度也能生存。

 

Jai Veer, Director at Hindchef Pvt. Ltd.

Indo-China relations are more friendly then it sound. The statement of Chinese leadership is merely a diplomatic strategy (more precisely gimmicks) to keep friendship with Pakistan and increase the sale of its goods, specially weapons to Pakistan.

印中关系比听起来更友好。中国领导人的声明仅仅是一种外交策略(更准确地说是一种噱头),目的是保持与巴基斯坦的友谊,增加其商品的销售额,尤其是向巴基斯坦出售武器。

Why we cannot Ban Import from China

为什么我们不能禁止从中国进口商品

1.Banning Chinese product has huge impact on India because all electronics products are being Imported from China. Electronics manufacturing require huge investment. India will not be able to start electronics manufacturing all of a sudden.

2.As a retaliation China may also ban Imports from India. Export to China is a significant part of Indian exports (more then 8% of total export, including China and Hong Kong). While for China Export to India is relatively small as compared to its overall exports (less then 2%).

3.Banning import shall be against lot of international treaties which India and China has signed in WTO and mutually.

1.禁止进口中国产品对印度影响巨大,因为印度所有的电子产品都是从中国进口的。电子制造业需要巨额投资。印度无法一夜之间就启动电子制造业。

2.作为回击,中国也可能禁止从印度进口商品。对中国的出口是印度出口的重要组成部分(包括中国和香港在内,占印度总出口的8%以上)。而中国对印度的出口相对于其整体出口来说占比较小(不到2%)。

3.禁止进口将违反印度和中国在世贸组织中同签署的许多国际条约。

India is already very strict for Dumping and China has failed several time in its Dumping strategy. India Government is taking good steps in keeping China Import low but sudden changes may destroy lot of businesses and International relations

印度对倾销采取了非常严格的措施,而中国的倾销策略也失败了若干次。印度政府在压制中国进口方面做得很好,但是突然的变化可能会破坏很多商业和国际关系。

 

Uzair Quadri, Just one of the billion people living here

Well you should probably read a book about this I'll recommend this one

A year without "made in China"  is a complete and perfect answer to your question this book is about an American family which lived a year without made in China products and their experience was as expected horrible this extract from Reuters article explains a lot about their experience For all of 2005, minor purchases required dogged detective work as Bongiorni scoured catalogues and read labels.

She repeatedly struck out trying to buy inexpensive shoes for her son, and even the chic local boutique that sold fancy European labels had gone out of business. So she shelled out $68 for Italian sneakers from a catalogue.

你应该读一本有关这个主题的书,我推荐《远离“中国制造”的一年》,能给你完整和绝佳的回答。这本书讲述的是一个美国家庭在一年时间内完全不选用中国产的商品,他们的经历就如同预期的那样可怕。来自路透社的这篇文章讲了很多他们2005年的生活经历,邦乔妮在购物时需要很费力的搜寻,查找商品目录,辨认商品标签。

她无数次想帮儿子买双便宜的鞋子,可就连当地售卖欧洲名牌的精品店都关门了。于是她花了68美元从一本目录上买了一双意大利球鞋。

Broken appliances gathered dust because the spare parts came from China. And, with the Asian country having a near lock on the toy aisles, her 4-year-old son grew tired of taking Danish-made Legos to birthday parties as gifts.

Bongiorni got a lesson in the global economy after products advertised as Made in USA turned out to have Chinese parts. She decided to keep a lamp with just this problem after speaking to the manufacturer and learning how China is "eating the lunch" of the few U.S lamp producers left.

Since the boycott's end, Bongiorni has chosen a middle ground. Her family seeks alternatives but accepts Chinese products when most practical. But one habit from the boycott remains: It required her to think hard about what she buys.

"Shopping became meaningful," she said

Answering to the main question no it is practically impossible for any country even India to live without "made in China"

坏掉的电器积满了灰尘,因为零配件是中国产的。这个亚洲国家几乎垄断了玩具市场,她4岁的儿子已经厌倦了把丹麦造的乐高玩具带到生日派对当做生日礼物。

邦乔妮从全球经济中得到了教训,因为广告中宣称的美国制造的产品里,配备的是中国产的零件。在与制造商交谈并了解到中国是如何“餐食”美国为数不多的电灯生产商后,她决定保留一盏有这个问题的台灯。

抵制运动结束后,邦乔妮选择了妥协。她的家人会寻找替代品,但会在最实用的情况下接受中国产品。但抵制活动带来的一个习惯依然保留下来:这要求她认真考虑自己要买什么。

“购物变得有意义了,”她说。

对这个问题的回答是,不,任何国家,即便是印度,都几乎不可能摆脱“中国制造”。

 译文来源:三泰虎  http://www.santaihu.com/49418.html  译者:Joyceliu

 

Maulik Shah, We help business import from China 100% risk free. We are your Best Export Agents in China.

Theoretically we can ban imports from China. However, Practically INDIA have done an agreement with WTO and one of the point means that In order to Export freely we must also allow imports freely.

However, just to speak in theory Banning Import will impact the world economy not only China or America, its a vicious circle . when India buy finished goods from china, China in-turn imports raw material from other country and so on, sometimes India itself sells raw material so they can buy finished products.

Banning Chinese product will indirectly or directly lower Indian economy as well as we will also be banned by many countries who support china and over all its loss to the nation.

Make in India also needs raw material to be imported. For example we need component to make mobile phones in India either they are made in China, Taiwan or Korea.

Lot of machines need to Manufacturer goods are India are imported.

理论上我们可以禁止从中国进口商品。但实际上,印度已经与世贸组织达成了一项协议,其中一点意味着,为了紫游出口,我们也必须允许紫游进口。

从理论上讲,禁止进口不仅会影响中国或美国,还会影响世界经济,这是一个恶性循环。当印度从中国购买制成品时,中国反过来从其他国家进口原材料,等等,有时印度自己销售原材料,所以他们可以购买到制成品。

抵制中国商品将间接或直接上海印度经济,我们也会因此被支持中国的许多国家抵制。

印度制造也需要进口原材料。例如,我们需要在印度制造手机的部件,要么是中国制造,要么是**制造,或是韩国制造。

印度有很多制造商品所需的也是进口的。

 

Anonymous

The first thing that happens is China will start more incursions into India on both land and sea fronts. They are already near to the gates of Malacca strait. Coco islands has a chinese sigint station. Chinese are slowly starting to claim Riau islands also. If this does not translate into war then.

首先会发生的是中国将会在陆地和海上对印度发动更多的入侵。他们已经逼近马六甲海峡的大门。科科群岛有一个中国的信号站。中国也开始慢慢宣称对廖内群岛拥有主权。如果这没有导致战争,那么

1.India starts manufacturing almost all that cheap chinese imports sell in India.

2.India gets more employment

3.India gets more people who spend

4.India gets heavily customised locally popular goods.

5.Indias trade deficit with china will reduce.

6.Indian economy will see robust growth.

7.India will get more innovative products and entrepreneurs.

  1. 印度开始制造几乎所有廉价的中国进口商品。
  2. 印度就业率提高。
  3. 印度有更多的人消费。
  4. 印度有许多本地热销商品。
  5. 印度对中国的贸易逆差将会减少。
  6. 印度经济将出现强劲增长。
  7. 印度将涌现更多的创新产品和企业家。

 

Aditya Goyal, Foreign Trade expert in Hyderabad, India

Its going to be disastrous in both the short and long run.

The following daily use products will get expensive;

1.Plastic products

2.Toys

3.Electronics

4.Mobile Phones

5.Computer peripherals

India depends on China for majority of Industrial semi finished products and Raw Materials, Chemicals, Steel Products, Paper & Paper Board, LDPE, PP, Machinery and Tools etc.. will all get expensive hence inflation will increase and economic stability will go for a toss.

无论从短期还是长期来看,这都将是灾难性的。

以下日常用品会变贵:

1.塑料制品

2.玩具

3.电子产品

4.移动电话

5.电脑周边设备

印度的工业半成品和原材料、化工、钢铁、造纸、纸板、LDPE、PP、机械、工具等产品依赖中国。因此,通货膨胀将会加剧,经济稳定将会受到冲击。

 

Devdatta R. Davari

May be banning chinese goods reduces their market in India, that is good for India in strategic view but it will not have major impact on china as they have small parts of trade with India. Instead of this we must catch the chinese products one by one and start to manufacture it into our own land and in near future also be able to sell that same product to china under name ”MADE IN INDIA”. Like this we can start degrading their economy from the roots and could also be able to grow ours

抵制中国货可能会减少他们在印度的市场,从战略角度来看这对印度有好处,但并不会对中国产生重大影响,因为中国与印度的贸易规模很小。我们必须一个接一个地研究中国产品,开始在我们自己的土地上生产,并在不久的将来以“印度制造”的名义把同样的产品卖给中国。这样,我们就可以从根本上削弱他们的经济,也可以发展我们的经济。

 

Pankaj Shukla, self employed

World never stops if somebody goes. If India stops imports from China soon Indian companies will start manufacturing goods that were earlier imported from china

地球不管缺了谁都照样转。如果印度不再从中国进口,印度公司将开始生产之前从中国进口的产品。

 

Raj Sharma, former Banker

China has placed themselves in such a position that it is impossible to boycott or ignore them. They are the worlds growth engine and with massive manufacturing capacity / technological achievements in various filed they have it will be a loss to the country who would boycott china.

中国已经到达了其他国家无法抵制或忽视它的高度。他们是世界经济增长的引擎,在各个领域拥有巨大的制造能力和技术成就,这对抵制中国的国家来说是一种损失。

 

Sandeep Rao, Strategy

The self sufficiency principle is if the global price of a commodity is dropping or Global price is less than local price import it. If it drops further, import more. On the other hand, if the global price is rising more than the local price export the commodity, as it rises more, explore ways and means to export more.

Crude oil is less than 100 USD per barrel right now, import it. If it falls below 90, import more. It falls below 70 import even more, plan for storage. Store more as it falls.

Price of caviar or khadi handlooms is rising, produce more and export more. It rises further export even more. Plan for more production.

Boycotting is a selective consumer decision. If the price is high the consumer will not buy it, if it is affordable - consumer is interested. All these artificial props setup by the go nment to support expensive local production will not be sustainable in the long run, eventually either the children or grandchildren have to face the music

自给自足原则是当某种商品的全球价格下降或全球价格低于当地价格时,进口这种商品。如果它进一步下跌,就进口更多。反过来,如果全球价格上涨,高于当地出口商品的价格,随着价格上涨的幅度越来越大,就要想方设法扩大出口。

现在原油价格不到每桶100美元,进口吧。如果低于90,就多进口点。跌破70以下,再多进口点,储存起来。跌越多,储存越多。

鱼子酱或土布手工织机的价格一直上涨,那就多生产点,多出口点。继续上涨就继续增加出口。计划好加大生产。

抵制是消费者的选择决定。如果价格高,消费者就不会买;如果价格实惠,消费者就会感兴趣。政府为了支持昂贵的本地生产而设置的所有这些人为激励手段,从长远来看是不可持续的,要由子辈或孙辈来承担后果。

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