三泰虎

观点:莫迪为13亿印度人准备了多少预算?少得可怜

View: What's in Modi's Budget for 1.3 billion Indians? Precious little

观点:莫迪为13亿印度人准备了多少预算?少得可怜。

An all-out push to revive its sputtering economy is not within India's reach. Instead of spending meager local resources to rebuild faltering demand, New Delhi is betting that world growth this year will be down in the dumps — and that will make India appear attractive to foreigners even when it really isn't.

印度无法全力振兴其疲弱的经济。印度政府并没有利用贫瘠的本地资源来重建摇摇欲坠的需求,而是押注今年全球经济增长会一蹶不振——这能令外国人觉得印度颇具吸引力,尽管实际上并非如此。

The budget unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's go nment Saturday left virtually every domestic constituency unhappy. My interpretation? Luring overseas investors to high-yielding Indian assets amid a global coronavirus scare is the preferred strategy.

印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪领导的政府上周六公布的预算方案,让几乎印度所有选民都感到不满。我解读一下,在全球冠状病毒恐慌的背景下,吸引海外投资者投资高收益的印度资产是首选策略。

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Under this blueprint, sovereign wealth funds such as Singapore's GIC Pte and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority will pay no taxes on what they earn from Indian infrastructure investment made before 2024, even though domestic investors were miffed the budget didn't scrap their long-term capital gains tax.

根据这一蓝图,新加坡政府投资公司和阿布扎比投资局等主权财富基金在2024年之前对印度基础设施投资的收入将无需缴纳任何税金,但印度政府预算没有取消长期资本利得税,这令国内投资者感到恼火。

Financiers in Mumbai are upset that the budget did little to clear the jammed arteries of credit. But yield-starved overseas investors will get full access to parts of the rupee-denominated Indian go nment bond market, where 10-year yields are a juicy 6.6%. The overseas participation ceiling on corporate bonds, currently limited to 9%, will rise to 15%. A Saudi Aramco-style initial public offering of the Life Insurance Corp., a state-owned former monopoly with $434 billion in assets, would add to Wall Street banks' bragging rights.

孟买的金融家们对预算对疏通堵塞的信贷动脉所做甚少感到不安。但渴望获得收益的海外投资者将完全进入以卢比计价的印度政府债券市场的部分领域,印度10年期国债收益率高达6.6%。公司债券的海外参与上限将从目前的9%升至15%。资产规模达4,340亿美元的前国有垄断企业美国人寿保险公司如果像沙特阿拉伯石油公司那样进行首次公开募股,将会增加华尔街银行吹嘘的资本。

The locals will have to sacrifice, though. Funding has been cut for a rural job guarantee program even as widespread agrarian distress weighs on demand for everything from toothpaste to biscuits. The urban middle class got thrown a carrot of lower tax rates, but it's only for those who give up existing exemptions. Most people won't. Dividend earners will, in fact, pay higher taxes as well as a levy — albeit one they can offset against their tax bill — on sending money overseas for education or holidays.

然而,当地人将不得不做出牺牲。尽管从牙膏到饼干等各种产品的需求都受到农业困境的普遍影响,农村就业保障计划的资金还是被削减了。城市中产阶级受到了降低税率的诱惑,但这只是针对那些放弃现有免税政策的人。大多数人不会放弃。事实上,分红派息者在将钱汇往海外用于教育或度假时,不仅要缴纳更高的税金,还要缴纳另外一笔税项——尽管他们可以用这笔税来充抵税金。

Except for a renewed commitment to affordable housing, Modi's go nment provided little demand stimulus. Existing bottlenecks remain, including a large overhang of unfinished homes. A bold rescue of troubled shadow banks, which are clogging up credit, isn't in the cards. The planned 10.85 trillion rupees ($152 billion) of capital expenditure is expected to grow by just 2.4%.

除了重新承诺建设经济适用房,莫迪政府几乎没有提供任何刺激需求的措施。现有的瓶颈依然存在,包括大量未完工的房屋。对陷入困境、造成信贷堵塞的影子银行实施大胆的救助是不会发生的。计划中的10.85万亿卢比(1520亿美元)资本支出预计仅增长2.4%。

Break it down, and the Rs 6.73 lakh crore outlay of public-sector companies will shrink by 5%. The remaining Rs 4.12 lakh crore of capital spending funded out of budgetary resources will grow, but 5% of it will go to propping up dying state-run telecom companies. With the private sector refusing to invest, such poor-quality public expenditure won't pull up growth in nominal gross domestic product — which is what matters for tax collections — to the targeted 10% rate, from a four-decade low of 7.5% in the fiscal year that ends March 31.

如果将其分解,公共部门6.73万亿卢比的支出将减少5%。剩下的4.12万亿卢比来自预算资源的资本支出将会增长,但其中5%将救助垂死的国有电信公司。在私营部门拒绝投资的情况下,这种低质量的公共支出不会令名义国内生产总值的增长率从截至3月31日的40年低点7.5%提高到10%。名义国内生产总值对税收至关重要。

India's fiscal situation is parlous. I have previously argued that the country should attract patient capital from developed countries, because its domestic balance sheets — financial, corporate, go nment and households — are simultaneously stretched. Meanwhile, global pension and sovereign funds are staring at chronically low interest rates, a problem that could worsen if the coronavirus plays havoc with growth in an over-leveraged world.

印度的财政状况岌岌可危。我之前曾提出,印度应该从发达国家吸引有耐心的资本,因为印度国内的资产负债表——金融、企业、政府和家庭——同时都很紧张。与此同时,全球养老基金和主权基金正面临着长期低利率的问题,如果冠状病毒在一个过度杠杆化的世界对经济增长造成严重破坏,这个问题可能会进一步恶化。

以下是《印度经济时报》网友评论: 

译文来源:三泰虎      http://www.santaihu.com/49273.html     译者:Joyceliu 

Brij Singh

Well written article and comments. This budget is probably made in the dreams where no realities have been considered. The tax paying middle class has been taken for a ride. In a country where there s no social security system , this budget is like a doomsday.

文章和评论都很棒。这个预算可能是在没有考虑到现实的情况下制定的。纳税的中产阶级被骗了。在一个没有社会保障制度的国家,这个预算就像世界末日。

 

SubramanianV

No benefits to Senior Citizens and Super Senior Citizens who do not get pension. Rs. 9000 cr provision for Senior Citizens in the budget may not benefit directly these. Though the Givt says the policy is to put more cash in the hands of public, the cash in the hands of these people is coming down day-by-day as interest rates coming down which solely & wholly source of income.

未领取养老金的老年人和超高龄老人享受不到任何福利。预算中为老年人提供的900亿卢比的经费可能不会让老人直接受益。虽然政府表示,政策此举是要将更多的现金留在公众手中,但这些人手中的现金随着利息的下降而日益减少,而利息是他们唯一的和全部的收入来源。

 

Vikram

Very true. Neither Modi nor his ministers understand this problem or care. For 5 years their tax policies are to tax the taxed. On top they have reduced job opportunities and now unemployment is the highest. Congress was sensitive to all this and did not tax dividends etc that are life savers for retired and not having any pension.

说得很对。莫迪和他的部长们都不理解这个问题,也不关心。他们的税收政策是对被征税的人征税5年。最重要的是,他们减少了就业机会,现在失业率达到历史最高水平。国会对所有这些都很敏感,并且没有对分红股息等进行征税,这些分红股息是退休人员的生活保障,他们没有任何养老金。

 

Suresh Chandani

Once again, a total disappointing budget. The situation will continue to be grim as usual. Ignoring sectors that create jobs and wealth won't encourage any major Indian investments in the ecosystem.

这又是一个令人失望的预算。形势将一如既往地严峻。忽视创造就业和财富的行业,无法鼓励印度对生态系统进行任何重大投资。

 

Shadi Katyal

Why we are unable to even understand that what has Modi done for the nation for past 6 years. No one talks of lack of any investments or jobs but expect a budget with growth incentive.

为什么我们无法理解莫迪在过去6年为国家做了什么。没有人谈到投资或就业机会的匮乏,但却希望看到能刺激增长的预算。

 

Bsrahmd

" You Indians think u are so smart , is it ? We view every Indian as a criminal, someone who needs to be disciplined . As long as we are in power u do as we say, not what u fancy. "

“你们印度人认为你们很聪明,是吗?我们认为每个印度人都是罪犯,都需要受到惩罚。只要我们还在掌权,你们就得照我们说的做,不要随心所欲。”

 

Biju Pols

Modi looted the common man with high TAX on Petrol, Diesel. ..

莫迪用汽油税、柴油税收刮民脂民膏…

 

Srinivas

Come April, Banking sector will be the first victim followed by anarchy thereafter......

到4月,银行业将成为第一个受害者,随后将出现无政府状态。

 

Godfather Senior

Report from Bloomberg!? And on an Indian domestic matters! Well, it is a branch of Congress Party's HQ that is known to all ;-)

彭博的报告! ?还是有关于印度的国内事务的!嗯,这是众所周知的国大党总部的一个分支;-)

 

Realdeshbhakt

most important point is war with pakistan .War with china wont happen because modi is already sold to them way back in 2014.With entire 6 yrs of tax spent and nothing to show for in military,india is in trouble.Indian military can run efficient smuggling operations in north east-near bangla border-pakistan border but it can not win a sustained war with pakistan or even bangladesh.Our soldiers are brave but top echelon is corrupt

最重要的一点是与巴基斯坦的战争。不会发生跟中国之间的战争,因为莫迪早在2014年就被他们收买了。整整6年的税收都花在了军事上,没有任何成果,印度陷入了困境。印度军方可以在东北部——靠近孟加拉国边境——巴基斯坦边境的地区进行有效的走私活动,但却无法赢得与巴基斯坦甚至孟加拉国的持久战争。我们的战士是勇敢的,但高层却是附败的。

 

Realdeshbhakt

Modi is doing what he has been ordered to do by foreign advisors.He is selling nation to indian and foreign corporations and he might even leave india then.

莫迪正在做外国顾问命令他做的事情。他正在把国家出卖给印度和外国公司,最后他也许可能离开印度。

 

Aziz Siddiqui

Let's stop believing in Feku and his 5 Trillions economy by 2025....

我们不要再相信莫迪以及他所谓的2025年实现5万亿经济规模的白日梦了…

 

Harivadan Dalal

Writer and Bloomberg is ANTI-INDIA. It is well known fact. And no body pays attention to their article.As regard to budget, there are many positives. New system of personal income tax will save tons of stationary, time and effort in collection, submission,verification of documents at different levels. Just think it national saving.It is media, who has wasted interest, spreads lies to common man.By developing infrastructure(roads, railways hospitals etc.) common man will benefit. Rich people already have all facilities at their disposal.

彭博社是反印度的。这是众所周知的事实。没有人关心他们的文章。对于这份预算,还是有许多积极的方面的。新的个人所得税制度将在征缴、提交、审核等环节上节省大量的时间和精力。就把它当做国民储蓄吧。是媒体,浪费了利益,向普通人散布谎言。通过发展基础设施(公路、铁路、医院等),普通人将受益。富人已经拥有了一切设施。

 

Sailesh

Very pessimistic view!!

很悲观的看法! !

 

Satish Jay

I think the budget had couple of misses like tax cuts for SMB, some targeted incentives for automobiles and some tax cuts for higher slabs as well. However, it is good to see that they have focused on fundamentals like clean drinking water. The key is implementation of various plans. The govt may provide more incentives closer to elections.

我认为这个预算有几个失误,比如对中小企业的减税,对汽车的一些有针对性的刺激,以及对高税收的减税。不过,很高兴看到他们把重点放在了清洁饮用水等基本问题上。关键是要落实各项计划。政府可能会在临近选举时提供更多激励措施。

 

Rajesh Kumar

Economy in doldrums and the biggest step taken is clean water project. When are the next elections?

经济不景气,最大的改革是清洁水工程。下次选举是什么时候?

 

Hammurabi

Fekunomics is total failure.

莫迪经济完全失败了。

 

Hari Krishna Johri

The surprising there is nobody in entire opposition to challenge him.It's shocking why no other leader is not coming forward to unseat him ? Is there no other good leader in whole country ??

令人惊讶的是没有人完全反对挑战他。令人震惊的是,为什么其他领导人不站出来质疑他呢?整个印度就没有其他好领导人了吗?

 

Vikram

Feku tries to be a super hero, but has turned out be a super flop. The biggest problem is people are looking a single person to overthrow him. But the truth is good governance is not a individual's domain, it is from collective wisdom of a group. As a group congress is 10 times better than BJP. They have proven time and again that they can govern better and manage economy. Dr MMS and PVN Rao, handled economy in the most difficult times with bare majority. But this idiotic Modi had big majority and most of time oil prices were low and they made a huge collection by keeping the taxes on oil high. Still they have taken India to a mess. Who spends 1.25 lakh crore on ganga cleaning? It is a river, just stop the pollution the river will clean it self. But BJP wants people to pollute so that they can spend 1.25 L crore of tax payer's money on cleaning 1 river.

莫迪试图成为一个超级英雄,但结果却一败涂地。最大的问题是,人们在寻找一个人来推翻他。但事实是,良好的治理不是一个人的事,而是一个群体的集体智慧。作为一个团体,国大党比人民党强10倍。他们一次又一次地证明,他们能够更好地管理和管理经济。曼莫汉辛格和PVN 拉奥博士在最困难的时期,以勉强过半的席位处理了经济问题。但这个白痴莫迪拥有多数席位的支持,大多数时候油价都很低,他们通过提高石油税来征收巨额税款。但他们还是把印度搞得一团糟。谁花了1.25万亿清洁恒河?这是河,只要停止污染,这条河就会自我清洁。但是人民党希望人们污染环境,这样他们就可以花1.25亿纳税人的钱来清洁河流。

 

Puthumbaka Raghu Kumar

Locals have been sacrificed to benefit Corporates and FPIs. With massive majority in Parliament this Government is thinking that they can do anything and get away with it.

为了企业和外国投资的利益,印度人被牺牲了。由于在议会中占绝对多数,本届政府认为他们可以为所欲为,逍遥法外。

 

Raghuraj Thakur

modi is best prime minister of world

莫迪是世界上最好的总理。

 

Anand V

Modi should go for waiver in GST on industrial buildings and add industrial building along with residential building as an option for saving long term capital gains........

莫迪应该放弃对工业建筑的消费税,增加工业建筑和住宅建筑,作为节省长期资本收益的选择。

 

Sheelukkk Kumar

At least corporates share dividend income is taxed heavily who holds proprietary interest in companies they hold is not bad at all. That's why these rich people are not able to digest.

至少,对那些持有公司所有权的人,公司的股息收入是被课以重税的,这一点不是坏事。这就是这些富人无法接受的原因。

 

Srinivasan Gopalan

Can we scoop out more than what is available.? The theme is fine. The two important things : easy of doing business without co ption and quick justice delivery if ensured India will do fantastically well. Slowly the ethos is getting changed because of BJP . The harm done for 7 decades are gargantuan and though cannot be undone easily a positive approach is taken by BJP is the need of the hour.

我们能深挖出更深层的东西吗?主题不错。两件重要的事情:没有附败,做生意就会简单;如果能保证司法做出快速判决,印度会表现得非常好。印度人民党慢慢地改变了这种风气。70年来造成的伤害是巨大的,虽然不能轻易消除,但人民党采取的积极措施是当务之急。

 

Rajesh Kumar

As of now, not even one up vote for the silly comment. The current situation is so bad for the whole economy that people will be happy to have the UPA back.

到目前为止,没有一个人赞成这个愚蠢的评论。目前的形势对整个经济来说非常糟糕,人们会很高兴团结进步联盟重新执政。

 

Sunder Swami

If only we had an intelligent opposition. Modi is only there because Congress become too corrupt and arrogant. Unfortunately, Congress still remains incompetent and arrogant. For India to move forward, Congress must reform. Well, until then, Modi will keep getting votes. Like it or not!!!!

要是我们有个聪明的反对党就好了。莫迪的存在只是因为国大党太附败、太傲慢。不幸的是,国大党现在依然无能傲慢。为了印度的进步,国大党必须改革。在那之前,莫迪会继续获得选票。不管你喜不喜欢!!

 

Dipanjan Datta

Absolutely!!! With Nehru-Gandhi Parivaar at the helm of the party will never make it a viable alternative. Had there been some other competent leader at the top, NaMo would have been history by now.

绝对没错! ! !有尼赫鲁-甘地•帕利瓦拉掌舵,该党将永远也无法成为替代的对象。如果高层有其他有能力的领导人,那么现在莫迪早都已经成为历史了。

 

Bharat Sharma

Andy Mukherjee is hurt that his White Christian Masters like Jeff Bezos were not put on pedestal. Well Andy can prostrate in front of his local White skinned master - Sonia.It is clear from series of Andy's articles, he is a shill for the realtor / NBFC lobby. He would prefer that Modi throws good money after bad, because his Indian masters can't continue looting poor real estate buyers.

安迪•穆克吉很伤心,因为他的白人基督教主子杰夫•贝佐斯没有被捧上神坛。安迪可以在他的白人主子——索尼娅面前卑躬屈膝。从安迪的一系列文章中可以明显看出,他是房地产经纪人/ NBFC游说团的托儿。他更希望莫迪花钱越多越好,因为他的印度主人无法继续掠夺贫穷的房地产买家了。

 

Hemant Pisat

The budget gave a miss to address GST, auto & real estate industry, the most job creating by any means. Well the go nment will realise the same maybe after few months when the upstick would be timid. It's unfortunate that FM misses the opportunities to address the downturn steadfastly.

该预算未能解决消费税、汽车和房地产行业的问题,无论如何这都是创造就业最多的行业。好吧,政府可能会在几个月后意识到这一点。不幸的是,财政部长错过了稳定应对经济衰退的机会。

 外文链接:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/whats-in-modis-budget-for-1-3-billion-indians-precious-little/articleshow/73891129.cms

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