三泰虎

观点:经济增长放缓,印度如何能重振经济

View: As growth tapers, here's what can be done to revive the economy

观点:经济增长放缓,我们可以做些什么来重振经济

FY2019-20 will go down as ‘annus horribilis’ in India’s economic trajectory. The drop in growth was so swift and so large that it can only be described as a crisis. India is now officially growing at a rate below 5%. At this ‘Hindu rate of growth’, India will not even reach $5 trillion by 2030.

GoI is under immense pressure to boost demand by breaching the fiscal deficit. It is, in any case, going to be difficult to meet the fiscal deficit target, despite the huge windfall transfer of excess reserves of Rs 1.76 lakh crore from RBI. The revenue projections in the Budget are based on very unrealistic nominal GDP projections of 12% growth — 4% GDP deflator and 8% real GDP growth.

More important is to reorient go nment expenditures towards a more developmental growth-oriented outcome — lower the recurrent expenditures and increase capital expenditures. Lower borrowing costs and cuts in subsidies could provide some space for this improvement in the quality of expenditures.

Recovery in investment is key to recovery of the economy. Gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP peaked in 2007-08 at 36% — it has since declined to about 28.5% — with private investment peaking at around 27.5% of GDP in 2007-08, and now slumping to 21.5%. Credit to the private sector as a share of GDP also peaked in 2013, and has since fallen — a contrast with Vietnam and Bangladesh, where credit growth has continued to rise despite a slowdown in global trade, as these economies have maintained export growth.

2019- 2020财年将成为印度经济轨迹中“可怕的一年”。增长下降速度如此之快、幅度如此之大,只能用危机来形容。印度官方现在公布的增长率低于5%。按照这种“印度式的增长速度”,到2030年,印度甚至连5万亿美元规模的边都摸不着。

印度政府承受着巨大的压力,需要通过削减财政赤字来提振需求。尽管印度央行向印度转移了17.6万亿卢比的巨额超额准备金,无论如何,要实现财政赤字目标都将是困难的。预算中的收入预测是基于非常不现实的名义GDP预测,即12%的增长—4%的GDP平减指数和8%的实际GDP增长。

更重要的是重新调整政府开支,使其更适应发展和增长—减少经常开支,增加资本开支。降低借贷成本和削减补贴可以为支出质量的改善提供一些空间。

投资复苏是经济复苏的关键。固定资本形成总额占GDP的比重在2007-2008年达到36%的峰值,此后下降至约28.5%,其中私人投资占GDP的比重在2007-2008年达到27.5%左右的峰值,目前已降至21.5%。私营部门的信贷占GDP的比重在2013年也达到峰值,此后一直在下降。这与越南和孟加拉国形成了鲜明对比,尽管全球贸易放缓,但这两个国家的信贷增长仍在继续,因为这些经济体保持了出口增长。

RBI has done its part to some extent. It has, over the last year, lowered the repo rate by 135 basis points to 5.15%. But only a third of this cut has translated into lower lending rates by commercial banks. Further cuts in RBI’s repo rate are unlikely, as consumer price index (CPI) inflation has now jumped to 4.6%, implying a real repo rate of 0.55%, lower than is warranted.

RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has reduced the repo rate by 135 basis points since last year. But it has had no effect on the weighted average lending rate (WALR). Over the last year, WALR has gone up by 1.9% points. In general, since the establishment of MPC in 2013-14, WALR has jumped from under 2% in real terms to around 7% for outstanding loans and 6% for new loans.

印度储备银行在一定程度上发挥了自己的作用。在过去的一年中,央行将回购利率下调了135个基点,至5.15%。但只有三分之一的降息转化为商业银行更低的贷款利率。印度央行不太可能进一步下调回购利率,因为消费者价格指数通胀率目前已升至4.6%,这意味着实际回购利率为0.55%,低于应有水平。

自去年以来,印度央行货币政策委员会已将回购利率下调了135个基点。但这对加权平均贷款利率没有影响。总体而言,自2013- 2014年货币政策委员会成立以来,实际利率已从2%以下跃升至7%左右,新增贷款为6%。

Pressure to come clean on NPAs — no doubt badly needed — forced banks to increase their lending rates and hurt economic growth, via both the consumption and investment channels. The high real interest rates has also meant that the real exchange rate remains hugely appreciated — by around 15-20% over the last five years. Such a high real exchange rate has hurt India’s competitiveness. The cost of not setting up a bad bank and conducting bolder financial sector reforms has now come to bite the system.

Trade wars have added to the global slowdown. Nevertheless, the US-China ‘trade war’ was seen as an opportunity for several countries. So far, the biggest winner is Vietnam and, to some extent, Bangladesh. India seems to have missed the bus due to lack of competitiveness. Vietnam’s exports to the US have jumped by about 30%. It has seen huge inward investment from Hong Kong-based companies. India’s decision to not join RCEP may also make it a less attractive destination for firms leaving China.

India has moved up again on the World Bank’s ‘Ease of Doing Business’ rankings to 77th position. But it remains behind Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. India dropped 10 ranks to 68th on the broader World Economic Forum (WEF) Competitiveness Index, which incorporates the ‘Ease of Doing Business’ index, but includes other factors as well.

This suggests India will need to conduct more aggressive reforms in enforcement of contract, registering property, paying taxes and resolving insolvency, as well as conduct labour and financial sector reforms. The following will be needed to accompany the corporate tax cuts to boost investment:

盘活不良资产的压力——无疑是迫切需要的——迫使银行通过消费和投资渠道提高贷款利率,损害经济增长。高实际利率也意味着实际汇率仍然大幅升值——在过去五年里升值了约15-20%。如此高的实际汇率损害了印度的竞争力。如今,未能成立坏账银行、实施更大胆的金融业改革的成本,已开始影响整个体系。

贸易战加剧了全球经济放缓的脚步。然而,美中“贸易战”被视为少数几个国家的机会。到目前为止,最大的赢家是越南,在某种程度上,还有孟加拉国。印度似乎因为缺乏竞争力而错过了这班车。越南对美国的出口增长了约30%。香港企业在这里进行了大量的投资。印度决定不加入区域全面经济伙伴关系协定,也可能使自己对搬离中国的企业的吸引力下降。

在世界银行发布的“营商环境”排名中,印度再次上升至第77位。但仍落后于越南、印度尼西亚、泰国和马来西亚。在涵盖范围更广的世界经济论坛竞争力指数中,印度的排名下降了10位,至第68位。

这表明,印度将需要在合同执行、财产登记、纳税和解决破产等方面进行更积极的改革,同时进行劳动力和金融业改革。在削减公司税以促进投资的同时,需要采取以下措施:

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*Set up a bad bank, and privatise some State banks. Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) is a good reform, but too slow to deal with the systemic non-performing assets (NPA) problem.

*Labour flexibility for firms up to 500 workers.

*Liberalise agricultural markets and exports, and boost rural demand by shifting funds to PM-KISAN and MGNREGA by reducing electricity and fertiliser subsidy.

*Announce a new strategic trade and industrial policy, and select 8-10 industries for priority support, as was the case earlier for auto and pharma.

*A new tourism push, ‘Swagat India’, to match ‘Swachh Bharat’, to double arrivals in 10 years.

*Direct tax reform to complement corporate tax cut and widen the base.

*Aggressively consummate disinvestment, including Air India sale and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) and Cement Corporation of India.

*成立坏账银行,并将一些国有银行私有化。破产与破产法是一项不错的改革,但在处理系统性不良资产问题上过于迟缓。

* 为500人以下的公司提供用工灵活性。

*放开农业市场和出口,通过减少电力和化肥补贴,将资金转移到PM-KISAN和MGNREGA,以刺激农村需求。

*宣布一项新的战略贸易和产业政策,并选择8-10个行业优先支持,就像先前的汽车和制药行业一样。

*新的旅游推广“Swagat India”,与“Swachh Bharat”相配套,使游客数量在10年内翻倍。

*直接税制改革,以配合企业减税及扩阔税基。

*积极完善撤资,包括印度航空销售和巴拉特石油公司,印度航运公司和印度水泥公司。

《印度时报》网站读者评论:

译文来源:三泰虎     http://www.santaihu.com/48867.html      译者:Joyceliu

外文链接:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/view-as-growth-tapers-heres-what-can-be-done-to-revive-the-economy/articleshow/72230297.cms

Realdeshbhakt

I think Narendra modi should resign because he has proven to be an incompetent -uneducated prime minister of india.He was never fit to be PM but was appointed by reliance-adanis. Modi-the accidental prime minister..Please resign if you are a deshbhakt and vanish from india

我认为纳伦德拉·莫迪应该辞职,因为事实证明,他是一个没有能力、没有受过教育的印度总理。他从来都不适合当首相,但是信实的阿达尼任命了他。莫迪—意料之外的总理…请你辞职,从印度消失

 

Ramesh Shah

There is nothing left to stitch in time EVERSINCE the Demo N SUBSEQUENT GST MASSIVE drawback has made a full pant to half pant...!!??? now the ECONOMIES must go in right Economists hands..... shocks after shocks no stitch in time!!!

自从废钞令和商品服务税后,已经没剩下什么来修补了!!现在经济必须交给正确的经济学家。印度经历了一次又一次的打击,没有及时修补!!

 

Anand Deshpande

Reducing repo rate will not help, it is trust deficit which needs improvement. People and industry should feel confident about future then only growth will be there.

降低回购利率没用的,需要改善的是信任赤字。人们和行业应该对未来充满信心,这样才能增长。

 

Feku Maharaj

Fekuji unleashed war on middle class by innumerable taxes, cesses and penalties on everything that moves. So people are left with no money for consumption.

莫迪对中产阶级发动了战争,对一切能动的东西征收无数的税、税和罚款。所以人们没有钱进行消费。

 

Kavi Tanna

Taxes for middle class have collapsed. Never before have they been so low. Income tax exemption was raised. GST lowered insane tax levels under previous Scamgress regime. GST replaced 14 different taxes on the consumer.

中产阶级的税收已经崩溃。从来没有这么低过。所得税免征额提高了。在之前国大党执政期,GST降低了疯狂的税收水平。消费税取代了对消费者征收的14种不同税种。

 

Ajit Grewal

there is no need for Sitharaman bahen to do anything - she has already proved her credentials as the fastest growing indian economic genious in the world . all this talk about the economy slowing is simply propaganda of the opposition . look at the airports - roads - homes - taxis - people everywhere

西塔拉曼•巴亨没有必要做任何事——她已经证明了自己是世界上增长最快的印度经济天才。所有这些关于经济放缓的言论只是反对派的宣传。看看机场—道路—家—出租车—到处都是人。

 

Kishore Shivani

SUBSIDIES AND FREEBIES AND FOLES AND ALMS TO THR SO CALLED FAKE POOR UNDER THE MULTIPLE GOVT WELFARE SCHEMES ACCOUNT FOR 70% OF OUR BUDGET REDUCE THIS TO MORE MANAGEABLE PERCENTAGE SAY 50%.

在多个政府福利计划下,补贴和免费赠款、救济金和救济金占我们预算的70%,把这个比例降低到更高的比例,比如说50%。

 

Oneeyeking

Good joke pro Govt editors

笑话真好笑,亲政府派的编辑

 

Rahul Seshadri

I take strong objection to the statement Hindu Growth Rate. Can even an article on the economy not be written without bringing religion into discussion

我强烈反对印度经济增长率的说法。关于经济的文章能不能不要涉及宗教?

 

Realdeshbhakt

Has anyone seen rise in withdrawals from EPF?I am getting reports that people are removing EPF money at higher rates

有人看到EPF的提款上升了吗?我得到的报告说,人们正在以更高的利率转移EPF资金。

 

Venkatesh Srinivasan

Burdening people with tax of all names should stop if we have to see growth. We have reached a stage where any further rate cut by rbi will make it''s impact. Banks are fearful of lending. They can''t reduce deposit rates for fear of withdraws.

如果我们只接受经济增长,就应该停止向各种各样的人征税。现在的情况是,印度央行进一步降息将产生影响。银行害怕放贷。由于担心提现,他们不能降低存款利率。

 

Realdeshbhakt

That is typical of modi govt to burden taxpayers with more taxes in name of hindu deshbhakti so modi can pay his lavish foreign vacations,salaries to govt babus-judges and huge contracts to adanis-ambanis,payments to buy MP-MLA,and media.

这是典型的莫迪政府,以印度人的名义加重纳税人的税收负担,这样莫迪就可以为他奢华的国外度假,政府法官的工资,阿达尼-安巴尼的巨额合同,购买议会席位和媒体费用买单了。

 

Kanakasabhai Natarajan

Another article from a person living in the US without understanding ground realities. The growth was achieved by reckless lending during congress regime resulting in NPA mess now running to almost 40 lakh crores. All tourist centres are full, trains have no tickets for months,pilgrim centres like Sabarimala, Tirupati, Madurai etc. are full of domestic tourists. India has its own growth momentum of around 5% and we can not have 8-10% like China which exploited export trade. We should simplify system and ask banks to lend to good customers who have deposits, good credit score to boost demand for goods. Raise 2nd class train fares, cut unwanted subsidies, pay dividend on dud banks with special fund while reviving them, buy back low priced PS shares and not sell are some measures.

这又是生活在美国的人写的文章,他不了解基本的现实。这一增长是通过国会时期不计后果的贷款实现的,导致了不良资产混乱,现在已经达到近400亿卢比。所有的旅游中心都是满的,火车已经几个月没有票了,像Sabarimala, Tirupati, Madurai等的朝圣中心都挤满了国内游客。印度有自己5%左右的增长势头,我们不能像中国那样利用出口贸易的8-10%。我们应该简化系统,让银行贷款给有存款、有良好的信用评分的好客户来刺激商品需求。提高二等火车票价,削减不必要的补贴,用特别基金向问题银行支付红利,同时重振经营,回购低价的PS股票,这些都是一些措施。

 

Realdeshbhakt

You moron bhakt,India was growing at 9% per annum without fudging statistics and employing paid bhakts to comments under congress era.India has 130 crore population and everything is always crowded. You go to any place bus stand,railway station,malls etc and you will see people.That does not mean they are earning crores like Modi''s masters ambanis-adanis.

在国大党时代,印度经济以每年9%的速度增长,没有捏造数据,也没有雇佣付费博客来发表评论。印度有13亿人口,干什么事都很拥挤。你去任何地方,巴士站,火车站,商场等,都会看到无数的人。这并不意味着他们能变成莫迪那样的亿万富翁。

 

Kavi Tanna

Id rather grow at 5 percent with sustainable growth rather than Donald Trump style unsustainable nonsense. Scamgress artificially inflated MSPs to ridiculous levels, massive scams, high fiscal deficits, destruction of BSNL and Air India, destruction of infrastructure companies, 100 percent dole politics, wasted 70 years of nothing.

我宁愿以5%的速度持续增长,也不愿像唐纳德·特朗普那样的不可持续的胡说八道。丑闻国大党人为地将MSPs夸大到荒谬的水平,大规模的骗局,高额的财政赤字,摧毁BSNL和印度航空公司,摧毁基础设施公司,100%的救济金政策,白白浪费了70年的大好时光。

 

Kanakasabhai Natarajan

You ignorant b. Crowd is not local but from far off places paying hard earned money. Tirupati doesn’t appear before you. Flipkart and Amazon had $6 b in sales this Diwali but then you may not know what is a billion dollar. When the whole world is struggling with recession 5% growth is not something to cry about which you the Congress chamcha do. One can’t allow co ption at all levels, ask banks to lend recklessly and import everything just to show fake growth.

那些人不是本地人,而是来自遥远的地方辛苦赚钱的人。蒂鲁帕蒂不会出现在你面前。Flipkart和亚马逊今年排灯节的销售额为60亿美元,但你可能还不知道十亿美元是什么概念。当整个世界都在经济衰退中挣扎的时候,5%的增长并不是什么让人哭鼻子的事情。我们不能容忍各级政府的附败,要求银行不计后果地放贷,无节制的进口来堆砌虚假的增长。

 

Hemant Pisat

It all actually started in mid 2015 when banks were asked to coerce customers on delayed debt resolutions and forcing MSME''s restructure business loans despite healthy debt servicing. MSME''s were slowly cornered, while demonetisation & shoddy GST rollout humbled them to non entities, thereby losing steam on a large premise with a stressed economic conditions. This had led to unemployment, paucity of demand, consumption and later credit lifts driving all industry spectrum in its whirl. Then came the saga of artificial numbers, irrelevant analysis, unintelligent policy statements, denial modes, direction less budget announcements, market exits & comeback begs, unwarranted tax concessions to unlikely contributors and what not. The list is endless.

实际上,这一切都始于2015年年中,当时银行被要求强迫客户延期偿还债务,并迫使MSME在偿债能力良好的情况下重组商业贷款。MSME慢慢被逼到了绝境,而废钞令和商品服务税的推出使他们不复存在,从而失去了动力。这导致了失业、需求不足、消费以及后来的信贷增长,推动了整个行业的动荡。然后是一系列人为杜撰的数字、不靠谱的分析、愚蠢的政策声明、否认、不清晰的预算公告、市场退出和恢复请求、对不太可能的贡献者做出不合理的税收让步等等。这样的例子不胜枚举。

 

Quhesobi

The Feku rate of growth is much worse than the Hindu one because, at least, the GDP figures were reliable and trustworthy back then. It is safe to say that India is already in a recession according to the latest IIP, electricity production and fuel consumption. If Feku keeps on manipulating all kinds of numbers, the doomsday is coming to India soon.

莫迪的增长率比历史数据要糟糕得多,因为至少那时的GDP数据是可靠的,值得信赖的。根据最新的工业生产指数,电力生产和燃料消耗,可以有把握地说,印度已经处于衰退之中。如果莫迪继续操纵各种数据,印度的末日即将来临。

 

Kavi Tanna

I dont remember reading such articles daily when UPA posted 2 years of 5 percent growth.

当年团结进步联盟宣布增长率连续2年为5%的时候,我不记得天天都能读到这样的文章。

 

AG

Replying to a know-nothing clown like him is a waste of time and space. The clown doesn''t even remember that the UPA managed the Indian economy through years of a global recession.

回复一个像他这样无知的小丑是浪费时间。小丑甚至不记得团结进步联盟是如何在全球经济衰退中经营印度经济的。

 

Kavi Tanna

Global growth now is actually lower than 2008. This site just printed an article about it this week. Also the years I referred to are 2011 and 2012 for 5 percent GDP growth under Scamgress, not 2008.

现在的全球增长实际上低于2008年。这个网站本周刚刚发表了一篇相关文章。在丑闻党的领导下,GDP增长5%的年份是2011年和2012年,而非2008年。

 

Office Mails

Even a majority go nment cant increase GDP, what about coalition go nment? zero reforms.

多数席位政府都无法增加GDP,那么联合政府呢?完全零改革。

 

Kavi Tanna

Govt should adopt Scamgressonmics and massively increase farmer crop prices then farmers will produce more generating rapid GDP growth. Do not worry about surplus food rotting and skyrocketing inflation, this will be next govt''s problem.

政府应该采用丑闻党的经济政策,大幅提高农民的农作物价格,这样农民就能生产更多的农产品,从而带动GDP快速增长。不要担心过剩的食物腐烂和飞涨的通货膨胀,那是下一届政府要面对的问题。

 

ARVIND GARG

hell with economy. let us get political gains. single point. why nobody understand it.

经济见鬼去吧。让我们获得政治收益。为什么没有人理解。

 

Balasubramanian Sankaran

The majority of the People of India were easily duped by the empty promises of the BJP, which swore that it would usherin an era of transparent , corrup-free and progressive regime with catchy slogan of "Ache Din".Now it is painfully clear that beginning with the ill-planned and unwarranted Demonetisation Fiasco and the shoddy implemenatation the the GST, the slide in our Economy had clearly started within six months of the BJP coming to Power in 2016.The naive public were so deceived by the periodic and ineffective "surgical stikes" Now with the massive mandate of 2019 from the unsuspecting and naive public, the future of our great country is unfortunately under the control of an unaccountable, arrogant and unwise regime. God save us all!

大多数印度人很容易被人民党空洞的承诺所欺骗,人民党发誓要用“好日子”这个朗朗上口的口号,开创一个透明、廉洁、进步的政权时代。现在,我们痛苦地认识到,从计划不周、毫无根据的废钞行动的惨败,到商品及服务税的拙劣实施,我们的经济在人民党2016年上台后不到6个月就开始下滑。天真的公众空洞的承诺欺骗。现在,在不知情、天真的公众的大规模授权下,我们伟大国家的未来不幸被一个不负责任、傲慢和不明智的政权所控制。神啊,保佑我们大家吧!

 

Aishvaraya Gupta

Modi deserves lynching for economic disaster that he cooked for India with series of missteps

莫迪犯下了一系列的错误,为印度带来了经济灾难,他就该被处以私刑。

 

AG

As long as Fekunomics is practiced in India, growth will not revive.

只要莫迪经济还在印度实行一日,印度的经济增长就不会复苏。

 

Realdeshbhakt

The humongous factory-business closures and drastic loss of demand in all sectors plus instability brought due to NBFS-Banking-stock market can not be re-mediated just by rhetoric of hindu deshbhakti

大量的工厂倒闭,所有行业的需求急剧下降,再加上银行股市场带来的不稳定,这些都不能仅仅通过印度人的花言巧语就得到解决。

 

Realdeshbhakt

There is not going to be any boost in demand due to modi''s vicious war against workers and middle classes on behest of selected business dynasties and govt babus.I have seen people removing money from PF account and banks due to extreme instability propagated by modi''s misgovernance.Since modi is following two ideologically opposing models at same time(chicago school of economics for ambanis adanis bureaucrat controlled communism for masses);it will end up destroying purchasing power of people and stop growth

在某些商业王朝和官老爷的命令下,莫迪对工人和中产阶级发动了邪恶战争,需求不会有任何增长。我见过有人从爱国阵线的账户和银行里取钱,因为莫迪治理不当造成了极度的不稳定。由于莫迪同时在遵循两种意识形态上对立的模式(安巴尼斯·阿达尼斯的芝加哥经济学院官僚控制的大众),它最终将摧毁人们的购买力,并终止增长。

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