Moody's cuts India's GDP growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019
NEW DELHI: Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019, saying go nment measures do not address the widespread weakness in consumption demand.
"We have revised down our growth forecast for India. We now forecast slower real GDP growth of 5.6 per cent in 2019, from 7.4 per cent in 2018," it said. "India's economic slowdown is lasting longer than previously expected."
Moody's had on October 10 slashed India's economic growth forecast for 2019-20 fiscal to 5.8 per cent from an earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.
Last week, it downgraded India's outlook to negative from stable.
In October, Moody's had attributed the deceleration to an investment-led slowdown that has broadened into consumption, driven by financial stress among rural households and weak job creation. ? In its Global Macro Outlook 2020-21, Moody's on Thursday said economic activity in India will pick up in 2020 and 2021 to 6.6 per cent and 6.7 per cent, respectively, but the pace to remain lower than in the recent past.
"India's economic growth has decelerated since mid-2018, with real GDP growth slipping from nearly 8 per cent to 5 per cent in the second quarter of 2019 and joblessness rising. Investment activity was muted well before that, but the economy was buoyed by strong consumption demand. What is troubling about the current slowdown is that consumption demand has cooled notably," it said.
The Modi go nment has undertaken a number of measures to arrest the growth slowdown. In September, it announced a cut in the corporate tax rate to 22 per cent from 30 per cent. It also lowered the tax rate for new manufacturing companies to 15 per cent to attract new foreign direct investments.
The tax rate reductions bring India in line with rates in other Asian countries.
The go nment's other initiatives include bank recapitalization, the mergers of 10 public sector banks into four, support for the auto sector, plans for infrastructure spending, as well as tax benefits for startups.
"However, none of these measures directly address the widespread weakness in consumption demand, which has been the chief driver of the economy," it said.
Moody's said the Reserve Bank of India has aggressively cut rates this year, and more rate cuts are likely.
"Benign domestic inflationary pressures, subdued oil prices and easing in other parts of the world will allow the central bank to continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy stance. However, the transmission to lending rates continues to be hindered by the credit squeeze caused by disruption in the non-bank financial sector," it said.
Moody's said while its baseline forecasts assume that economic momentum will pick up, there are risks to the downside.
"Slow employment growth is weighing on consumption. The interest rate cutting cycle is not adequately being transmitted, which is hampering investment as companies' borrowing costs remain elevated," it said.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/48799.html 译者：Joyceliu
all who voted for BJP should open eyes. BJP is anti-india. they are just fullfilling RSS dreams not indians dream. indians are looking for job money career growth development but BJP is far from these issues
it seems recession is going to stay till 2024 at least.
The Government should take note of Moody''s assessment of our economy in a practical manner instead of dubbing it as a product of Western economic concepts.And also, we know that that the automobile sector''s performance in sales are in the downswing , resulting large scale cutting of jobs. Agricultural sector too is not doing well while the manufacturing is steadily showing a downward trend. It is quite clear that cutting of rates also have not brought the desired results.The purchasing power of the common man is dwindling.
The biggest failure of a rating company lies in the fact that when the concerned market does not respond i.e., fall or rise immediately to its prediction.
BJP IT cell does not understand markets or its various bodies. Do not display your stupidity here. And yes, market has reacted. USDINR is above 72 and going to 75.
Aptly said Sir, respect your wisdom and amazed at the richness of your vocabulary. Thanks
"Moody''s cuts India''s GDP growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019" If at all India can reach this figure it would be a miracle given the fast growing cancerous tumors afflicting the Indian economy and the go nment incapable of undertaking the necessary surgical procedures to remove the tumors.
India should ignore all these predictions based on fictitios assumptions, delibrrately ignoring the affectve steps taken by the Govt and its regulators recently. India is on the correct path and doimg all that is feasible. Such arbitrary predictions lower tje morale of general public as well cause a great damage to ongoing efforts Enthusiasm and agreessive support of the ppeoplle is very nevessary.
MAYBE THEY SHOULD SECOND GUESS CHINA AND AMERICA GROWTH.
One must think calmly that Moody ratings or change of mind is due to data supplied by the Modi sarkar.Even the World bank has asked India to provide true figures and return to old world standard.
SEE, ITS A HUGE BIG GLOBAL RECESSION. DONT TRUST ANYONES NUMBERS. THERE IS A BIG GLOBAL 250 TRILLION DOLLAR DEBT BUBBLE. USA, EU, CHINA WILL BE FULLY AFFECTED TOO. TIME TO POP ALL BUBBLES IN INDIA SO WE ARE FULLY PREPARED AND READY TO RIDE THIS RECESSION OUT. INDIA WILL DO JUST FINE.
Chandra Shekhar Sood
Too low inflation is as bad as high inflation.
Bhakto ,you got your wishes.Now please let us live and thrive.Modiji-nirmalaji;you have caused immense damage to this nation and indians to satisfy your massive egos.Please resign and let some educated people run nation.We dont want illiterate dic or wannabe running nation
What is this second guessing story ? When the go nment itself - either refuses to acknowledge the poor growth rate and releases no worthwhile reliable information - make as many guesses as one needs
Modi continuing with Nirmala.. Is he too bold? Or too scared to accept that it was a mistake?
A mid segment business man is much better in knowing the country''s economic growth than Moody''s . Fitch, S&P. SBI , RBI or the govt.. GDP growth will be well below 5% for FY 20 .. mind it & note it
Truth is nobody knows how bad the mess is. The GDP growth is less than 3 percent today and slowly going down futher. This BJP govt has been a disaster for India''s economy and they headed by Modi hide data that doesn''t suit them. Massive damage has been done to economy by stupid govt led by an imbecile PM.
Why what miracle would take it so high?
boycott all ratings agency
Can we blame Nehru for this....
But our RBI is saying the opposite and happily reducing the interest rates
ups and downs are part of economy. don''t blame Modi of this and yes RaGa was inches away from few days in jail
Hari Krishna Johri
Sure Nehru is responsible for slow growth since 1947. On the other hand Feku has lifted millions out of poverty as per his latest claim at BRICS meeting.
how much do u get to lick modi''s as. ?
G P Shenoy
For the PM the solutions, to India''s economic woes lies abroad and fool''s Indian people there by presenting hollow justifications that its only when the western world invests in India, the country shall grow and every 2nd day he moves abroad.
on what basis it is 5.6% ? it will be less than 5%
Shame, shame. How long this govt. will carry on with manipulating figures......Oh only God can save this country from liers.....
Wake up India
they should cut it to 4.6% ... that''s where its gonna be