三泰虎

到2050年印度和中国谁会领先,印网友:印度2030年就超中国

Which country - India or China will be ahead by 2050?

到2050年,印度和中国谁会领先对方?

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Quora读者的评论:

Jack Xia, lives in China

Althought I'm a Chinese,I have to accept the truth that India is stronger than China. In fact India has many advantages that China doesn't have, such as the greatest and most important de acy . As for economic development prospects , you can look at the recent report of IMF about India's economy to grow faster than China.

Human Resources

1.India has more young people than China.

2.Largest English speaking population in the world.

3.People considered as very good IQ. Nearly 40% of NASA scientists are Indian Origin.

Industry

India is stronger than China in some aspects, such as IT, medical, aviation industry and film industry.

I am sure that India will rule the future rather than China.

虽然我是中国人,但我必须接受一个事实,那就是印度比中国强大。事实上,印度有许多中国没有的优势,比如最伟大和最重要的皿煮。至于经济发展的前景,你可以看看国际货币基金组织最近的一份报告,报告称印度经济增速将超过中国。

人力资源

1.印度的年轻人比中国多。

2.是全世界说英语的人口最多的国家。

3.印度人智商很高。NASA中有近40%的科学家是印度裔。

工业

印度在信息技术、医疗、航空和电影等方面比中国强。

我相信印度将统治未来,而不是中国。

 

San Abhignu, B.Tech Mechanical Engineering, IIET (2017)

In common (my) words:

INDIA:

  • Still poor
  • More co ption and crime rate
  • Still a DEVELOPING COUNTRY
  • Rich becomes richer, poor becomes poorer

US:

  • Still no 1
  • Rich af and even more
  • Killing the mother earth with more scientific experiments and bomb tests
  • Leading role in WW3

CHINA:

  • Over 250 billion population
  • New govt rules such as “No reproduction or Sentenced to death” will be implemented
  • More wildlife will be killed for their food
  • Mandarin will be worlds most speaking lang still

Britain:

  • New queen
  • New royal rules and majestic orders
  • Same usual financial crisis news
  • Gordon Ramsay’ son fighting over Jamie Oliver’s son for Number 1 chef in UK (lol)

用我的话说:

印度:

  • 现在还是很贫困;
  • 附败和犯罪率更严重;
  • 仍是发展中国家;
  • 富人更富,穷人更穷

美国:

  • 目前还是全球老大;
  • 越来越富;
  • 用越来越多的科学实验和诈弹试验扼杀地球母亲;
  • 第三次世界大战中会发挥领导作用;

中国:

  • 超过2500亿人口
  • 将会执行新的政府规定,如“不生孩子就判处死刑”。
  • 会有更多的野生动物被宰杀,作为中国人的食物。
  • 普通话依然会是世界上使用人数最多的语言

英国:

  • 新女王
  • 新的皇家法规和命令;
  • 金融危机新闻
  • 戈登•拉姆齐的儿子赢过杰米•奥利弗的儿子,获得英国第一大厨称号

 

Darshil Shah, lives in India

It is difficult to answer this question with certainty as it depends on what policies the go nments of the above countries take. But I'll try to make a guess assuming that current policies are followed.

  1. The US will remain a powerful country though a nothing close to the superpower status it enjoys now. It will no longer have the center stage in world affairs. It will remain a strong military power, probably the among the top 5. Its economy, having reached its saturation point will not grow by much.
  2. China's fate will be complete opposite of the US. It's economy will have left the US economy behind and will be the world's biggest economy. It will also be probably the 1st or 2nd strongest military power. It will have become a fully developed country by 2050.
  3. Pakistan will also see strong growth in it's economy owing to its large working age population. It will also increase its military might in order to combat India but will probably fall far short of reaching India's military power. It current policy of supporting terrorism will be a major impediment in its growth. In the case it's all powerful military decides to take control, the country’s growth will slow down even further.
  4. Britain will face serious decline in its power and probably will not even be considered a major force by 2050. Brexit, at least in its current form, will lay ruin to its economy also resulting in decline of military power. Its declining diplomatic influence was evident in the recent ICJ battle between it and India.
  5. India will have progressed a lot by 2050. Its economy will probably grow the fastest among all the five above countries and will probably be the 3rd largest economy by 2050. Its military might will also rise substantially and will probably be one of the top 4 military powers. Corruption and communalism will probably be the biggest obstacles in its path. Another major issue will be its huge population.

这个问题很难回答得很绝对,因为这取决于上面提到的这些国家政府会采取什么样的政策。但我会试着猜一猜,假设当前的政策不变的话,会发生什么。

1.美国还会继续保持强国地位,尽管已无法和目前的超级大国地位相媲美了。它将不再是世界事务的中心舞台。中国仍将是一个强大的军事强国,很可能跻身前五名。它的经济已经到头了,不会再增长太多了。

2.中国的命运将完全与美国相反。中国经济将把美国经济远远甩在身后,成为世界上最大的经济体。它还可能拥有第一或第二强大的军事力量。到2050年,中国将成为一个完全发达的国家。

3.由于工作适龄人口众多,巴基斯坦的经济也将强劲增长。它还会大力提高军事力量以对抗印度,但可能远远达不到印度的军事水平。目前支持恐怖主义的政策将是其发展的主要障碍。如果强大的军方决定控制局势,国家的增长将进一步放缓。

4.到2050年,英国将面临国力的严重衰退,甚至可能不再是主流大国。英国退欧(至少以目前的形式)将摧毁英国经济,并导致军事实力下降。从最近在国际法院与印度的斗争中,就能明显看出英国外交影响力的下降。

5.到2050年,印度将取得长足发展。在上述五个国家中,印度的经济增长速度可能是最快的,到2050年可能会跻身第三大经济体。印度的军事实力也将大幅提升,很可能成为世界四大军事强国之一。附败和社群主义可能是其发展道路上最大的障碍。另一个主要问题源于其庞大的人口。

 

Abhijit Roy, Professor at Management Schools (2004-present)

In today’s fast changing world, this question is almost impossible to answer as 2050 is 32 years away – that is one generation. However, we could have a look at what is the situation today and try and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of an economy to make an educated guess going forward.

Comparing today’s China and India

Comparing the two countries today, this is what it looks like:

PPP GDP in $ billions (2017)

China: 23,159 (rank 1), India: 9,459 (rank 3)

PPP GDP per capita $ (2017)

China: 16,624 (rank 79), India: 7,174 (rank 122)

Adult literacy rate (%)

China: 95.1 (rank 43), India: 69.3 (rank 97)

Life expectancy in years

China: 76.1 (rank 53), India: 68.3 (rank 125)

Total Fertility Rate (no.)

China: 1.6, India: 2.3

Human Capital Index rank

China: 46, India: 115

Multidimensional Poverty Index (% below poverty)

China: 4.0, India: 27.5

Multidimensional Poverty Index (% below severe poverty)

China: 0.3, India: 8.6

Total wealth ($ billions)

China: 51,874 (rank 2), India: 5,972 (rank 12)

Wealth per adult ($)

China: 45,969 (rank 39), India: 6,974 (rank 96)

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/47234.html

在当今瞬息万变的世界,这个问题几乎是无法回答的,因为2050年是32年后的事。不过我们可以看看今天的情况,试着讨论一个经济体的强项和弱项,从而做出一个有根据的猜测。

比较一下今天的中国和印度

现今两国之间相比,情况如下:

购买力平价GDP(十亿美元)(2017年)

中国:23159(排名1),印度:9459(排名3)

人均购买力平价GDP(2017年)

中国:16624(排名79),印度:7174(排名122)

成人识字率(%)

中国:95.1(排名43),印度:69.3(排名97)

预期寿命(年)

中国:76.1(排名53),印度:68.3(排名125)

总生育率(个)

中国:1.6,印度:2.3

人力资本指数排名

中国:46,印度:115

多维贫困指数(低于贫困百分比)

中国:4.0,印度:27.5

多维贫困指数(低于严重贫困百分比)

中国:0.3,印度:8.6

总财富(十亿美元)

中国:51874(排名2),印度:5972(排名12)

每位成人的财富(美元)

中国:45969(排名39),印度:6974(排名96)

Conclusion

It is not always useful to keep comparing India with China. The two countries have taken different paths to achieve growth. with huge achievements in building physical infrastructure, and high merchandise exports backed by a strong manufacturing sector. China’s emphasis in the past on health and education for its population has been commendable. India still has to fill substantial gaps in infrastructure and has not been generally strong either in the manufacturing sector or achieving high levels of merchandise exports. However, it has shown its strength in the services sector, especially IT related services. India has to do much more in health and education in order to take advantage of its ‘demographic dividend’. Going forward, both China and India have to tackle the dynamic and fast changing world including handling environmental issues. Let us hope that the two neighbouring countries remain friendly competitors in the coming decades.

结论

把印度和中国进行比较,并没有什么帮助。两国发展的道路不同。中国在建设基础设施方面取得了巨大成就,强大的制造业支撑着高额的商品出口。中国过去对国民健康和教育的重视可圈可点。印度仍需填补基础设施方面的巨大缺口,制造业或商品出口水平普遍不高。不过,印度在服务部门,特别是与资讯科技有关的服务方面,显示出极强的实力。要充分利用“人口红利”,印度必须在医疗和教育方面做更多努力。展望未来,中印两国都必须应对充满活力和快速变化的世界,包括环境问题。让我们希望这两个邻国在未来几十年里维持友好的竞争对手关系吧。

 

Jizhidi Daidaicat, former 2nd Battalion Commander enjoying spaghetti (2013-2016)

Absolutely India.

According to a report by the UK think tank Centre for Economics Business and Research (CEBR),Indian will be 3rd largest economy( behind China and US) in 2030 and overtake China in the 2nd half of the century. (link:Centre for Economics and Business Research

绝对会是印度。

根据英国智库经济与商业研究中心的一份报告,到2030年,印度将成为第三大经济体(仅次于中国和美国),并在本世纪下半叶超过中国

 

Randy McDonald, Student of history and empires

At this stage, 35 years before the target date, it's really quite impossible to judge which country will be ahead since each country has its advantages and disadvantages. China right now is substantially more globalized than India, but is this viable? India is locked into a nuclear cold war with Pakistan over Kashmir, but could this end? Both countries have their demographic issues, but can any be dealt with? (The prospect of immigration into China, even large-scale immigration, can't be excluded. The same could be said of immigration into India.)

My feeling is that, absent any catastrophe, India and China will be approximately in the same range, be powers of roughly the same order of magnitude. It's certainly imaginable that India might catch up to China if the latter has a growth slowdown, but catch-up growth is not inevitable.

如今距离2050年还有35年的时间,真的很难判断哪个国家会领先,因为每个国家都有自己的优势和劣势。中国现在比印度更加全球化,但这有用么?印度与巴基斯坦在克什米尔问题上陷入核冷战,但这能结束吗?这两个国家都有人口问题,但两个国家都能解决吗?(可能会有移民进入中国,甚至大规模的移民,无法拒绝。印度也会遇到移民的问题。)

我的感觉是,在不发生任何灾难的情况下,印度和中国将大致处于同一水平线,成为实力相当的大国。当然,如果中国经济增长放缓,印度可能会赶超中国,这是有可能的。

 

Jayant Jain, lives in India

What will the comparison be about ? What are the parameters which we should consider for this answer ?

Also making such predictions assumes that there will not be disruptive developments over such long periods.

Based on the current scenario, China is ahead in terms of economic strength, military strength (both conventional and Nuclear), Infrastructure (Road, power, water), industrial production capabilities (almost all sectors), construction and project management skills, high technology - specially tele-communications, space, artificial intelligence and Robotics and to an extent on basic scientific research.

India at present would be considered ahead in the following fields - Software and IT, Agriculture, Bio-technology, Diamond and Gold Jewellery production, Research in the area of Economics. India has the advantage that a larger part of its population is able to study in English and therefore integrates far more easily in the english speaking countries of the world and therefore indian emigrants do well abroad generating both dollar incomes and good-will for India across the world.

Now to make predictions one must have a crystal ball or risk sounding foolish based on various assumptions and projections. However lets hazard a guess.

比较的重点是什么?对于这个答案,我们应该考虑哪些参数?

同时,做出这种预测的前提是,在这么长的时间内会不会出现破坏性的发展。

基于当前的情况,中国在经济实力、军事实力(包括传统和核武器)、基础设施(道路、电力、水)、工业生产能力(几乎所有行业)、建设和项目管理技能、高科技、特别是电信,太空、人工智能、机器人技术和基础科学研究方面都处于领先地位。

印度目前在以下领域领先:软件和IT、农业、生物技术、钻石和黄金珠宝生产、经济学领域的研究。印度的优势在于,印度人口中用英语学习的比例更高,因此更容易融入其他使用英语的国家,因此,印度移民在国外适应得很好,为印度在世界各地创造了美元收入和良好关系。

现在如果要预测,必须有一个水晶球,否则就有可能根据各种假设和推测做出愚蠢的预测。不过,让我们大胆猜测一下吧。

The phenomenal growth that China achieved over the past thirty years was based largely on an export oriented economy wherein it became the manufacturing base for the entire world. Starting off as a cheap production centre it grew on to becoming a highly skilled production base which could leverage economies of huge scale of production even as cost of its work-force increased. But within this phenomenal success lies the root of future failure. As its export surplus grows with almost every major country it will now face resistance from these importers who are fearful of this trade imbalance de-stabilising their economies. Also its Belt and Road initiative is now perceived as a blatant debt trap which many countries are vary of.

Also as China’s economic strength grew it invested heavily in military strength too and has on umpteen occasions tried to intimidate its neighbours and this has raised security concerns in the US and other countries who are moving to form alliances to counter any future Chinese transgressions.

Going ahead China will not be able to keep up the high growth rates it has enjoyed. As its economy slows down it will face internal stress in meeting the high aspirations of its now upwardly mobile population. Already one is seeing that many urban centres it built up are lying vacant as the industries which were supposed to anchor these have not taken off. China will have to import basic food products for its concentrated urban populations centres.

中国在过去三十年中取得了惊人的增长,这在很大程度上是建立在出口导向型经济的基础上的,在出口导向型经济中,中国成为了全球制造业的基地。从一个廉价生产中心起步,逐渐成长为一个技艺精湛的生产基地,可以在劳动力成本上升的情况下,获得大规模生产带来的经济效益。但在这种非凡的成功背后,隐藏着未来失败的根源。随着中国与几乎所有主要国家的出口顺差不断增长,中国现在面临这来自这些进口国的阻力,它们担心这种贸易失衡会破坏本国经济的稳定。此外,中国的“一带一路”现在被视为一个明目张胆的宅舞陷阱,许多国家对此看法不一。

此外,随着中国经济实力的增长,中国也大举投资军事实力,并在无数场合试图恐和邻国,这引发了美国和其它国家的安全担忧,这些国家正在结成联盟,以应对中国未来的任何违法行为。

中国要继续前进,就不能保持目前的高增长率。随着中国经济放缓,中国将面临内部压力,难以满足目前不断向上层阶级流动的人口的雄心壮志。人们已经看到,中国许多建好的城市中心无人入住,因为那些本应支撑它们的产业尚未起飞。中国将不得不为其人口密集的城市人口中心输入基本食品。

Also the Chinese population growth rate has peaked and henceforth the chinese population will start ageing and in thirty years will certainly face a situation of lesser workers supporting a larger retired population. This in itself will create a huge drain on its economy further slowing it down.

On the other hand, India too has had high growth rates, though lower than that in China, but these are based much more on increasing domestic consumption. India does not have threatening export surpluses and hence will continue to be a favoured supplier for a much longer period.

Though China has a larger landmass, India has higher arable land and will produce more agricultural produce than China which allows it to export surplus food-grains and agricultural produce.

India too is investing heavily in military strength, infrastructure and research and will be catching with China in many spheres specially in the field of Space and Nuclear research. Its attempt of building a military -industrial production base will definitely help it to push its industrial capabilities.

此外,中国的人口增长率已经达到顶峰,中国人口将从现在开始开始计入老龄化阶段,三十年后,中国肯定会面临劳动力减少、退休人口增多的被动局面。这本身就会对中国经济造成巨大的消耗,进一步拖累中国经济。

另一方面,印度也有较高的经济增长率,尽管低于中国,但这些增长更多地是基于国内消费带来的。印度没有吓人的出口盈余,因此在很长一段时间内,印度仍将是受欢迎的供应国。

虽然中国幅员辽阔,但印度的可耕地面积较大,其农产品产量将超过中国,这使得印度能够出口过剩的粮食和农产品。

印度也在军事力量、基础设施和研究方面投入巨资,并将在许多领域赶上中国,特别是在空间和核研究领域。中国建立军工生产基地的尝试,必将有助于提升其工业能力。

India has a younger population and a higher growth rate which if its education system is able to sustain will yield a higher population dividend. Its population will be far younger than the Chinese population in 2050 and will be a big advantage.

Therefore it is not difficult to see that over the next 30 years, barring any unforeseen events like a debilitating war, or series of natural disasters, India will quite possibly catch-up with China or in some areas go ahead.

The two countries are already the most populous in the world and over the next 30 years are likely to become the largest economies too. They would be fairly equal in strength on most parameters

印度拥有更年轻的人口和更高的增长率,如果其教育体系能够维持下去,将产生更高的人口红利。到2050年,中国人口将比中国人口年轻得多,这将是一个巨大的优势。

因此,不难看出,在未来30年里,除非发生什么不可预见的事件,比如消耗国力的战争,或者一连串自然灾害,印度很可能会赶上中国,或者在某些领域赶超中国。

这两个国家已经是世界上人口最多的国家,在未来30年,很可能也会成为最大的经济体。在大多数地方,它们实力相当。

 

Roland Wu

Question is huge, let’s just simplify it by asking how much more growth rate does India need compare with china each year during next 34 years so both India and china has the same nominal GDP per capita? Currently, it is $1600 and $7900 respectively for India and china, so the simple equation is (1+x)^34=7900/1600, solve this equation, you get 4.9%, that means if china grows at rate 2% every year in next 34 years, India need 6.9% for every year too.

这个问题很大,让我们简化一下,在接下来的34年里,印度每年需要比中国多增长多少,才能使印度和中国的名义人均GDP相等同?目前,印度和中国的人均GDP分别是1600美元和7900美元,所以列个简单的方程(1+x)^34=7900/1600,解方程得到的结果是4.9%,这意味着如果中国在未来34年以每年2%的速度增长,印度需要每年保持6.9%的增长率。

 

Santosh Kumar, studied at Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra

It is very likely to be China. At least on most economic parameters. It has got huge lead over India and it appears that lead would continue to be significant in next 30 years. Indians waste way too much money on non-productive activities. The Indian go nment is big and inefficient and indolent. Even the current PM with a significant majority and tough image finds it difficult to cut Government size, and remove inspector culture. Therefore it is laser Chines focus versus blunt and lethargic Indian style to move forward. Without doubt Indians have managed to move 100–200 million people out of abject poverty. Indians have shown they can get things done when they moved GST re gie and eliminated polio. There are many success stories. It is just that Indians are not consistent.

很可能是中国。至少在大多数经济指标上是这样的。中国对印度的领先优势巨大,而且在未来30年,这种领先优势似乎还将继续显著。印度人在非生产性活动上浪费了太多的钱。印度政府庞大、低效、懒散。即使是目前拥有明显高比例支持和强硬形象的总理,也很难削减政府规模,消除督察文化。因此,要向前发展,中国的目光要像激光一样聚焦,而不能像印度那样迟钝无力。毫无疑问,印度已经成功地使1亿至2亿人摆脱了赤贫。印度人已经证明,他们调整消费税、消除小儿麻痹症时,也取得了成功。只是印度人不够坚持。

 

Deepak Kumar

china will be ahead of india as they have got a better and fast head start than us.

we were very late in starting economic reforms.

we still have to take major initiatives in agriculture, industrial production, education, infra structure devlopment, exports, jobs creation, health and sanitation. etc

it is a long way to go and we need to put meregency brakes on population & co ption and black money and reservation

中国会领先印度,因为他们比我们有更好更快的起点优势。

我们很晚才开始经济改革。

我们还必须在农业、工业生产、教育、基础设施开发、出口、创造就业、健康和卫生等方面采取重大举措。这是一段很长的路,我们需要叫停人口过快增长、附败、黑钱和预留制。

 

Ashwin Singh, Chillaxing since 1990

Thanks for asking

According to the report of US intelligence published in the article of TOI India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report - The Times of India

India's growth is accelerating and China's is decelerating. The current economic gap would be closer by 2030. So, by 2050 India will be much ahead of China.

谢谢你的提问。

根据《印度时报》发表的报告,2030年印度就超过中国:美国情报报告-印度时报

印度的增长正在加速,而中国的增长正在减速。到2030年,现行的经济差距将会缩小。因此,到2050年,印度将远远领先于中国。

 

Socks House, studied at Massachusetts Institute of Technology

india

1.more young people than china

3.china have not fre m

3.china have not “san tai hu”

印度

1.年轻人比中国多

2.中国没有紫游

3.中国没有“三泰虎”

 

Ranjeet Singh, former Chartered Accountant

If India enjoys double-digit growth rate at least for a decade as China did for more than 3 decades, then sure, India would lead 2050 in terms of GDP PPP.

India will make a powerful place for itself in the global influence by 2030 (as EU/US/China has today)

如果印度能像中国过去那样至少在未来10年保持两位数的增长速度,那么毫无疑问,印度的GDP购买力平价将在2050年领先中国。

到2030年,印度将在全球影响力中占据重要地位(就像欧盟/美国/中国今天拥有的那样)

 

Partho Sarothi Paul

India's economic growth would be higher than China.

But China's GDP(nominal) would be bigger than India

印度的经济增长将高于中国。

但中国的GDP(名义GDP)将超过印度

 

Arun Bhatia, studied at Univ of MD

China is way ahead; will always REMAIN way ahead. Even in 2050 !

中国遥遥领先;将永远保持领先。就算到2050年也依然如此!

 

Winston

Look at the past, present and then predict the future.

In the past, was there any time in history India was prosperous?

In the present, the growth rate of illiteracy, poverty at growth rate of [email protected] each year.

Prediction: SUrely, India will maintain the leadership in poverty and illiteracy in the world by years 2050.

回顾过去,看看现在,然后再来预测未来。

历史上,印度历史上有过繁荣的时期吗?

目前,文盲率、贫困率以每年2%的速度增长。

预测:到2050年,印度在贫困和文盲问题上肯定会保持领先地位。

 

Sambasiva Rao, MANAGER at Cognizant (2011-present)

INDIA, US & BRITAIN WILL BE STRONG ALLIES.

CHINA WILL BECOME THEIR ONLY FOE.

PAKISTAN WILL BE ERASED FROM THE PLANET

印度、美国和英国将成为强大的盟友。

中国将成为他们唯一的敌人。

巴基斯坦将被从地球上抹去。

 

Richard Bourne, I lived and worked in China for over 4 years for a variety of multinationals and local companies. I speak f...

Ahead in what?

I’m fairly confident China will have a larger land area and India will have a larger population. China will consume more meat and India more veggies.

Total GDP I suspect India will be larger. Per Capita though I suspect China.

在什么方面领先?

我相信,中国会拥有更大的土地面积,印度拥有更大的人口。中国将消耗更多的肉类,印度将消耗更多的蔬菜。

我猜印度的GDP总量会更大。但人均GDP应该还是中国更高。

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