Which country - India or China will be ahead by 2050?
Jack Xia, lives in China
Althought I'm a Chinese,I have to accept the truth that India is stronger than China. In fact India has many advantages that China doesn't have, such as the greatest and most important de acy . As for economic development prospects , you can look at the recent report of IMF about India's economy to grow faster than China.
1.India has more young people than China.
2.Largest English speaking population in the world.
3.People considered as very good IQ. Nearly 40% of NASA scientists are Indian Origin.
India is stronger than China in some aspects, such as IT, medical, aviation industry and film industry.
I am sure that India will rule the future rather than China.
San Abhignu, B.Tech Mechanical Engineering, IIET (2017)
In common (my) words:
- Still poor
- More co ption and crime rate
- Still a DEVELOPING COUNTRY
- Rich becomes richer, poor becomes poorer
- Still no 1
- Rich af and even more
- Killing the mother earth with more scientific experiments and bomb tests
- Leading role in WW3
- Over 250 billion population
- New govt rules such as “No reproduction or Sentenced to death” will be implemented
- More wildlife will be killed for their food
- Mandarin will be worlds most speaking lang still
- New queen
- New royal rules and majestic orders
- Same usual financial crisis news
- Gordon Ramsay’ son fighting over Jamie Oliver’s son for Number 1 chef in UK (lol)
Darshil Shah, lives in India
It is difficult to answer this question with certainty as it depends on what policies the go nments of the above countries take. But I'll try to make a guess assuming that current policies are followed.
- The US will remain a powerful country though a nothing close to the superpower status it enjoys now. It will no longer have the center stage in world affairs. It will remain a strong military power, probably the among the top 5. Its economy, having reached its saturation point will not grow by much.
- China's fate will be complete opposite of the US. It's economy will have left the US economy behind and will be the world's biggest economy. It will also be probably the 1st or 2nd strongest military power. It will have become a fully developed country by 2050.
- Pakistan will also see strong growth in it's economy owing to its large working age population. It will also increase its military might in order to combat India but will probably fall far short of reaching India's military power. It current policy of supporting terrorism will be a major impediment in its growth. In the case it's all powerful military decides to take control, the country’s growth will slow down even further.
- Britain will face serious decline in its power and probably will not even be considered a major force by 2050. Brexit, at least in its current form, will lay ruin to its economy also resulting in decline of military power. Its declining diplomatic influence was evident in the recent ICJ battle between it and India.
- India will have progressed a lot by 2050. Its economy will probably grow the fastest among all the five above countries and will probably be the 3rd largest economy by 2050. Its military might will also rise substantially and will probably be one of the top 4 military powers. Corruption and communalism will probably be the biggest obstacles in its path. Another major issue will be its huge population.
Abhijit Roy, Professor at Management Schools (2004-present)
In today’s fast changing world, this question is almost impossible to answer as 2050 is 32 years away – that is one generation. However, we could have a look at what is the situation today and try and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of an economy to make an educated guess going forward.
Comparing today’s China and India
Comparing the two countries today, this is what it looks like:
PPP GDP in $ billions (2017)
China: 23,159 (rank 1), India: 9,459 (rank 3)
PPP GDP per capita $ (2017)
China: 16,624 (rank 79), India: 7,174 (rank 122)
Adult literacy rate (%)
China: 95.1 (rank 43), India: 69.3 (rank 97)
Life expectancy in years
China: 76.1 (rank 53), India: 68.3 (rank 125)
Total Fertility Rate (no.)
China: 1.6, India: 2.3
Human Capital Index rank
China: 46, India: 115
Multidimensional Poverty Index (% below poverty)
China: 4.0, India: 27.5
Multidimensional Poverty Index (% below severe poverty)
China: 0.3, India: 8.6
Total wealth ($ billions)
China: 51,874 (rank 2), India: 5,972 (rank 12)
Wealth per adult ($)
China: 45,969 (rank 39), India: 6,974 (rank 96)
It is not always useful to keep comparing India with China. The two countries have taken different paths to achieve growth. with huge achievements in building physical infrastructure, and high merchandise exports backed by a strong manufacturing sector. China’s emphasis in the past on health and education for its population has been commendable. India still has to fill substantial gaps in infrastructure and has not been generally strong either in the manufacturing sector or achieving high levels of merchandise exports. However, it has shown its strength in the services sector, especially IT related services. India has to do much more in health and education in order to take advantage of its ‘demographic dividend’. Going forward, both China and India have to tackle the dynamic and fast changing world including handling environmental issues. Let us hope that the two neighbouring countries remain friendly competitors in the coming decades.
Jizhidi Daidaicat, former 2nd Battalion Commander enjoying spaghetti (2013-2016)
According to a report by the UK think tank Centre for Economics Business and Research (CEBR),Indian will be 3rd largest economy( behind China and US) in 2030 and overtake China in the 2nd half of the century. (link：Centre for Economics and Business Research
Randy McDonald, Student of history and empires
At this stage, 35 years before the target date, it's really quite impossible to judge which country will be ahead since each country has its advantages and disadvantages. China right now is substantially more globalized than India, but is this viable? India is locked into a nuclear cold war with Pakistan over Kashmir, but could this end? Both countries have their demographic issues, but can any be dealt with? (The prospect of immigration into China, even large-scale immigration, can't be excluded. The same could be said of immigration into India.)
My feeling is that, absent any catastrophe, India and China will be approximately in the same range, be powers of roughly the same order of magnitude. It's certainly imaginable that India might catch up to China if the latter has a growth slowdown, but catch-up growth is not inevitable.
Jayant Jain, lives in India
What will the comparison be about ? What are the parameters which we should consider for this answer ?
Also making such predictions assumes that there will not be disruptive developments over such long periods.
Based on the current scenario, China is ahead in terms of economic strength, military strength (both conventional and Nuclear), Infrastructure (Road, power, water), industrial production capabilities (almost all sectors), construction and project management skills, high technology - specially tele-communications, space, artificial intelligence and Robotics and to an extent on basic scientific research.
India at present would be considered ahead in the following fields - Software and IT, Agriculture, Bio-technology, Diamond and Gold Jewellery production, Research in the area of Economics. India has the advantage that a larger part of its population is able to study in English and therefore integrates far more easily in the english speaking countries of the world and therefore indian emigrants do well abroad generating both dollar incomes and good-will for India across the world.
Now to make predictions one must have a crystal ball or risk sounding foolish based on various assumptions and projections. However lets hazard a guess.
The phenomenal growth that China achieved over the past thirty years was based largely on an export oriented economy wherein it became the manufacturing base for the entire world. Starting off as a cheap production centre it grew on to becoming a highly skilled production base which could leverage economies of huge scale of production even as cost of its work-force increased. But within this phenomenal success lies the root of future failure. As its export surplus grows with almost every major country it will now face resistance from these importers who are fearful of this trade imbalance de-stabilising their economies. Also its Belt and Road initiative is now perceived as a blatant debt trap which many countries are vary of.
Also as China’s economic strength grew it invested heavily in military strength too and has on umpteen occasions tried to intimidate its neighbours and this has raised security concerns in the US and other countries who are moving to form alliances to counter any future Chinese transgressions.
Going ahead China will not be able to keep up the high growth rates it has enjoyed. As its economy slows down it will face internal stress in meeting the high aspirations of its now upwardly mobile population. Already one is seeing that many urban centres it built up are lying vacant as the industries which were supposed to anchor these have not taken off. China will have to import basic food products for its concentrated urban populations centres.
Also the Chinese population growth rate has peaked and henceforth the chinese population will start ageing and in thirty years will certainly face a situation of lesser workers supporting a larger retired population. This in itself will create a huge drain on its economy further slowing it down.
On the other hand, India too has had high growth rates, though lower than that in China, but these are based much more on increasing domestic consumption. India does not have threatening export surpluses and hence will continue to be a favoured supplier for a much longer period.
Though China has a larger landmass, India has higher arable land and will produce more agricultural produce than China which allows it to export surplus food-grains and agricultural produce.
India too is investing heavily in military strength, infrastructure and research and will be catching with China in many spheres specially in the field of Space and Nuclear research. Its attempt of building a military -industrial production base will definitely help it to push its industrial capabilities.
India has a younger population and a higher growth rate which if its education system is able to sustain will yield a higher population dividend. Its population will be far younger than the Chinese population in 2050 and will be a big advantage.
Therefore it is not difficult to see that over the next 30 years, barring any unforeseen events like a debilitating war, or series of natural disasters, India will quite possibly catch-up with China or in some areas go ahead.
The two countries are already the most populous in the world and over the next 30 years are likely to become the largest economies too. They would be fairly equal in strength on most parameters
Question is huge, let’s just simplify it by asking how much more growth rate does India need compare with china each year during next 34 years so both India and china has the same nominal GDP per capita? Currently, it is $1600 and $7900 respectively for India and china, so the simple equation is (1+x)^34=7900/1600, solve this equation, you get 4.9%, that means if china grows at rate 2% every year in next 34 years, India need 6.9% for every year too.
Santosh Kumar, studied at Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra
It is very likely to be China. At least on most economic parameters. It has got huge lead over India and it appears that lead would continue to be significant in next 30 years. Indians waste way too much money on non-productive activities. The Indian go nment is big and inefficient and indolent. Even the current PM with a significant majority and tough image finds it difficult to cut Government size, and remove inspector culture. Therefore it is laser Chines focus versus blunt and lethargic Indian style to move forward. Without doubt Indians have managed to move 100–200 million people out of abject poverty. Indians have shown they can get things done when they moved GST re gie and eliminated polio. There are many success stories. It is just that Indians are not consistent.
china will be ahead of india as they have got a better and fast head start than us.
we were very late in starting economic reforms.
we still have to take major initiatives in agriculture, industrial production, education, infra structure devlopment, exports, jobs creation, health and sanitation. etc
it is a long way to go and we need to put meregency brakes on population & co ption and black money and reservation
Ashwin Singh, Chillaxing since 1990
Thanks for asking
According to the report of US intelligence published in the article of TOI India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report - The Times of India
India's growth is accelerating and China's is decelerating. The current economic gap would be closer by 2030. So, by 2050 India will be much ahead of China.
Socks House, studied at Massachusetts Institute of Technology
1.more young people than china
3.china have not fre m
3.china have not “san tai hu”
Ranjeet Singh, former Chartered Accountant
If India enjoys double-digit growth rate at least for a decade as China did for more than 3 decades, then sure, India would lead 2050 in terms of GDP PPP.
India will make a powerful place for itself in the global influence by 2030 (as EU/US/China has today)
Partho Sarothi Paul
India's economic growth would be higher than China.
But China's GDP(nominal) would be bigger than India
Arun Bhatia, studied at Univ of MD
China is way ahead; will always REMAIN way ahead. Even in 2050 !
Look at the past, present and then predict the future.
In the past, was there any time in history India was prosperous?
In the present, the growth rate of illiteracy, poverty at growth rate of [email protected] each year.
Prediction: SUrely, India will maintain the leadership in poverty and illiteracy in the world by years 2050.
Sambasiva Rao, MANAGER at Cognizant (2011-present)
INDIA, US & BRITAIN WILL BE STRONG ALLIES.
CHINA WILL BECOME THEIR ONLY FOE.
PAKISTAN WILL BE ERASED FROM THE PLANET
Richard Bourne, I lived and worked in China for over 4 years for a variety of multinationals and local companies. I speak f...
Ahead in what?
I’m fairly confident China will have a larger land area and India will have a larger population. China will consume more meat and India more veggies.
Total GDP I suspect India will be larger. Per Capita though I suspect China.