三泰虎

黎明报:印巴冲突,战争还是和平

 Genocide, war or peace?

种族灭绝、战争还是和平?

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A FULL-SCALE war between Pakistan and India was averted last month because India’s hastily delivered bombs caused no damage; Pakistan’s response was measured, demonstrating capability but deliberately avoiding Indian casualties; and Prime Minister Imran Khan, apart from urging restraint, an impartial investigation and dialogue, released the captured Indian pilot as a ‘peace gesture’.

上个月,巴基斯坦和印度之间避免了一场全面战争。巴基斯坦的回应是有分寸的,既展示了能力,又刻意避免了对印度造成伤亡。巴基斯坦总理伊姆兰·汗除了敦促各方保持克制、进行公正的调查和对话外,还释放了一名被俘的印度飞行员,以示“和平姿态”。

Such gestures were, however, brushed aside by India’s prime minister. Despite India’s military reversals, Modi and his cohorts have told the Indian public that their ‘muscular’ response to Pulwama was successful. They will no doubt depict Pakistan’s recent actions against the affiliates of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad as concessions forced on Pakistan by India’s military intervention and diplomatic pressure.

然而,印度总理对这些示好姿态置之不理。尽管印度在军事上发生了逆转,莫迪及其同僚告诉印度公众,他们对普尔瓦马事件的“强硬”回应是成功的。他们无疑会把巴基斯坦最近对虔诚军和穆罕默德军附属组织的行动描述为印度的军事干预和外交压力迫使巴基斯坦做出的让步。

Any belief in India that its military adventurism has ‘worked’ could erode the stability of mutual deterrence which Pakistan’s military response of Feb 27 re-established. If New Delhi is convinced that Pakistan can be cowed by a combination of military and diplomatic pressure, it may feel emboldened in the next crisis to conduct military strikes at a ‘higher’ level.

印度任何认为其军事冒险主义“奏效”的想法,都可能破坏巴基斯坦2月27日的军事回应所重建的相互威慑的稳定。如果新德里确信巴基斯坦会受到军事和外交压力的双重威胁,在下次危机中它可能会更有胆量发动更高级别的军事打击。

Pakistan must, therefore, take steps to expose India’s falsehoods before, during, and after the military exchanges of Feb 26-28. It should advertise that India’s bombs destroyed trees and killed a crow. It must reveal to the world, including the people of India, how Pakistan could have destroyed Indian military targets but chose not to do so. It should point out that India’s captured pilot could have been humiliated and India could have had its nose rubbed in the dirt by requiring a minister or its air chief to come and retrieve him. Finally, it should be made clear that Pakistan’s actions against militant organisations are designed to implement its own National Action Plan, not in response to Indian or other external pressure.

因此,巴基斯坦必须采取措施,揭露印度在2月26日至28日交火之前、期间和之后的谎言。巴基斯坦应该宣传印度的诈弹只炸掉了树木,只炸死了一只乌鸦,必须向包括印度人民在内的世界揭示,巴基斯坦能够摧毁印度的军事目标,却选择不这样做。应该指出的是,被俘的印度飞行员本会受到羞辱,巴基斯坦本可以要求一名部长或空军司令来把他接回国。最后,应该明确的是,巴基斯坦打击激进组织的行动是为了实施自己的国家行动计划,而不是迫于印度或其他外部压力。

Islamabad should not anticipate that Modi’s hostility towards Pakistan will abate after the Indian national elections. Apart from their ideological animus, if Modi and the Hindu alliance succeed in the forthcoming elections, it will reinforce their conviction that aggression against Pakistan and the Kashmiris is a winning formula.

伊斯兰堡不应该期望莫迪对巴基斯坦的敌意会在印度大选后减弱。如果莫迪和印度教联盟在即将到来的选举中获胜,除了意识形态上的敌意,还将强化他们的信念,即对巴基斯坦和克什米尔的侵略是一个必胜方案。

Unfortunately, India’s aggressive posture is being actively encouraged by the US which is now firmly aligned with New Delhi in its global rivalry with China. Pakistan enjoys some leverage in the context of Afghanistan; but this does not seem to have prevented Washington’s one-sided pressure on Pakistan during and after India’s military incursion.

不幸的是,印度咄咄逼人的姿态正受到美国的积极鼓励。美国目前在与中国的全球竞争中与新德里方面保持着坚定的一致。巴基斯坦在阿富汗问题上享有一些影响力;但这似乎并没有阻止华盛顿在印度军事入侵期间和入侵之后对巴基斯坦施加单边压力。

Yet, this does not imply that the Kashmir issue will fade away. Despite all odds — massive Indian oppression, over 100,000 killed, Pakistan’s frequent indifference — the Kashmiris have persisted in their struggle for freedom from Indian rule for over 70 years.

然而,这并不意味着克什米尔问题将会消失。尽管存在种种困难- -印度的大规模压迫,10多万人被杀,以及巴基斯坦时常的冷漠- -克什米尔人70多年来一直坚持为摆脱印度统治、争取自由而进行的斗争。

The current uprising in occupied Kashmir is led by the third generation of Kashmiris. It is entirely indigenous. It has continued for four years without external support and is likely to be sustained. Like Afghanistan, Kashmir is mountainous, and India is a large and fractured country where active insurgencies are under way in 119 districts (according to former prime minister Manmohan Singh) and can find succour from various internal sources.

目前印控克什米尔的起义是由第三代克什米尔人领导的。该起义完全是本土自发的,在没有外部支持的情况下已经持续了四年,而且很可能会持续下去。与阿富汗一样,克什米尔多山,而印度是一个幅员辽阔、四分五裂的国家,119个地区(据前总理曼莫汉•辛格称)正在发生活跃的叛乱,可从各种内部渠道获得帮助。

The BJP’s plan to ‘resolve’ the Kashmir ‘problem’ is to colonise it and transform it into a Hindu-majority state. A first step in this plan would be to eliminate Jammu & Kashmir’s ‘special’ and autonomous status under the Indian constitution. If Modi and the BJP proceed with this plan, the Kashmiri resistance will obviously intensify.

印度人民党“解决”克什米尔“问题”的计划是殖民克什米尔,并将其转变为一个印度教占多数的国家。该计划的第一步将是消除查谟和克什米尔在印度宪法下的“特殊”和自治地位。如果莫迪和印度人民党继续推行这一计划,克什米尔人的抵抗将明显加剧。

As the blood flows, the Kashmiri diaspora, and sympathetic Pakistanis, will seek to join the freedom struggle, including from Pakistan’s territory. The Pakistan government will then face a binary choice: facilitate the freedom fighters or fight them as ‘terrorists’.

随着鲜血的流淌,散居在外的克什米尔人和同情的巴基斯坦人将寻求加入自由斗争。巴基斯坦政府将面临两个选择:要么帮助自由战士,要么把他们当作“恐怖分子”加以打击。

As Pakistan is compelled to extend material support to the Kashmiri freedom movement, war with India will become almost inevitable. Every war game of a Pakistan-India conflict indicates the high probability of its escalation to the nuclear level. Recent studies have concluded that a nuclear exchange in South Asia will kill over 100 million people, devastate the entire region and trigger a ‘small nuclear winter’ and global economic collapse.

由于巴基斯坦不得不向克什米尔自由运动提供物质支持,而与印度的战争将几乎不可避免。每一场印巴冲突的军事演习都表明,冲突升级到核水平的可能性很高。最近的研究得出的结论是,南亚的核冲突将导致1亿多人死亡,整个地区将遭受毁灭性打击,并引发“小规模核冬天”和全球经济崩溃。

It is time for the international community to wake up to the existential threat which the Kashmir dispute poses not only to Pakistan and India but to the entire world. The UN Security Council must be activated to fulfil its Charter responsibility to prevent such a catastrophe.

国际社会现在应该清醒地认识到克什米尔争端不仅对巴基斯坦和印度,而且对整个世界构成生存威胁。联合国安理会必须行动起来,履行其《宪章》职责,防止这种灾难的发生。

Pakistan must mobilise the international community to find a fair, peaceful and durable solution to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. To this end,  it should launch a well-planned and funded campaign to: counter Indian propaganda regarding Kashmir; reaffirm the legitimacy of the Kashmiri freedom struggle (which, under UN resolutions and international law, is entitled to struggle “ by all available means” for self-determination and to receive “moral and material” support in this struggle); press for an end to India’s massive human rights violations in occupied Kashmir; promote credible steps to avoid a Pakistan-India war, including arms control and CBMs; and demand an internationally endorsed dialogue, engaging Pakistan, India and the Kashmiris, to evolve a fair and mutually acceptable solution to the Jammu and Kashmir.

巴基斯坦必须动员国际社会为查谟和克什米尔争端找到公正、和平和持久的解决办法。为此,巴基斯坦应该发动一场计划周密和资金充足的运动:反击印度关于克什米尔的宣传;重申克什米尔自由斗争的合法性(根据联合国决议和国际法,克什米尔自由斗争有权“以一切可用手段”争取自决,并在这场斗争中获得“道义和物质”支持);敦促结束印度在印控克什米尔的大规模侵犯人全行为;推动采取可靠措施避免巴印战争,包括军备控制和建立军事互信机制;并要求进行得到国际认可的巴基斯坦、印度和克什米尔三方对话,为查谟和克什米尔问题找到一个公平和相互都接受的解决办法。

Finally, Pakistan must not be shy to raise the Kashmir issue and the India-Pakistan conflict in the Security Council. The issue is on the Council’s agenda. Pakistan’s stance is based on UN Security Council resolutions. There will be no adverse Council decision against Pakistan so long as China stands with Islamabad. And China will find it easier to stand with Pakistan in defence of legitimate Kashmiri rights and the principles of the UN Charter, rather than to prevent the ‘listing’ of an individual.

最后,巴基斯坦绝不能羞于在安理会提出克什米尔问题和印巴冲突。这个问题已在安理会的议程上。巴基斯坦的立场是基于联合国安理会的决议。只要中国和伊斯兰堡站在一起,安理会就不会做出不利于巴基斯坦的决定。中国会发现,相比阻止将某人列入黑名单,和巴基斯坦并肩维护克什米尔的合法权利和《联合国宪章》的原则会更容易一些。

巴基斯坦黎明报读者评论:

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/47220.html

外文:https://www.dawn.com/news/1470123/genocide-war-or-peace

NADIM KHAN

a day ago

Always a pleasure to read him.

阅读作者的文章是一种享受。

 

Akram

a day ago

India will be consumed by its own hate

印度将被自己的仇恨所吞噬

 

Akram

a day ago

India has absolutely nothing to show after its latest surgical strike. Only hollow claims and Bollywood style fanciful propaganda.

最近的外科手术式袭击,印度根本没有什么可炫耀的。只有空洞的声明,只有宝莱坞式异想天开的宣传。

 

FIDA SAYANI

a day ago

Good analysis on KASHMIR, the PTI government should pay attention to the views of the author of this article.

克什米尔问题分析很到位,巴基斯坦正义运动党政府应重视本文作者的观点。

 

  1. S. Natarajan

a day ago

The only peaceful, fair and and durable solution of the Kashmir problem is that it should be handed over to Pakistan !

对于克什米尔问题,唯一和平、公正和持久的解决办法就是把它交给巴基斯坦!

 

point of view

a day ago

Sweet words to Pakistani readers but the reality is different.

对巴基斯坦读者来说,这是甜言蜜语,但事实并非如此。

 

Yash

a day ago

@Akram, India has existed for thousands of years and will continue to do so.

@Akram,印度已经存在几千年了,并将继续存在下去。

 

jimmmy

a day ago

Lets try now.

现在就试试吧

 

Dinesh

a day ago

Why no independent news media allowed to visit the bombed structure? Still re

为什么不允许独立的新闻媒体造访被炸毁的建筑?

 

Jamil Soomro, New York City

about 22 hours ago

A powerful honest article by Mr.Munir Akram.Everything mentioned by the Writer in his article may very well come true.

一篇铿锵有力、实事求是的文章。作者在文章中提到的一切都很可能成为现实。

 

SyedChaudhryGangaDinKhan

about 22 hours ago

@Yash, Yes and majority of the world thinks that India is the future.

世界上大多数人认为未来属于印度。

 

Maboob Saleem

about 20 hours ago

.. The BJP’s plan to ‘resolve’ the Kashmir ‘problem’ is to colonise it. --- A very Chinese idea.

印度人民党“解决”克什米尔“问题”的计划是殖民克什米尔。——这是一个很“中国”的想法。

 

Devinder S Chohan

about 19 hours ago

What was Pakistani Response.Please let rest of the world know

巴基斯坦有何回应?请让全世界知道

 

Ashar

about 14 hours ago

"It must reveal to the world, including the people of India, how Pakistan could have destroyed Indian military targets but chose not to do so." - No - We should have killed a bunch of Indians and sent a stern message.

“巴基斯坦必须向包括印度人民在内的世界揭示,巴基斯坦能够摧毁印度的军事目标,但却选择不这样做。”-不-我们应该杀了一群印度人,然后发出严厉的信号

 

Zak

about 14 hours ago

Excellent article as usual with sound advice.

一如既往,是篇好文,提出了明智的建议。

 

khan1

about 7 hours ago

Brilliant article!

这篇文章写得真好!

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