三泰虎

孟加拉国为何能超越巴基斯坦

Why Bangladesh overtook Pakistan

孟加拉国为何超越巴基斯坦

BANGLADESH is not some Scandinavian heaven. It is poor and overpopulated, undereducated and corrupt, frequented by natural catastrophes, experiences occasional terrorism, and the farcical nature of its democracy was exposed in the December 2018 elections. But the earlier caricature of a country on life support disappeared years ago. Today, some economists say it shall be the next Asian tiger. Its growth rate last year (7.8 per cent) put it at par with India (8.0pc) and well above Pakistan (5.8pc). The debt per capita for Bangladesh ($434) is less than half that for Pakistan ($974), and its foreign exchange reserves ($32 billion) are four times Pakistan’s ($8bn).

孟加拉国不是斯堪的纳维亚的天堂它贫穷,人口过剩,教育水平低下,附败成风,经常遭受自然灾害,偶尔经历恐怖主义,其皿煮的滑稽本质在2018年12月的选举中暴露无遗。但对个国家的讽刺多年前就烟消云散了。如今,一些经济学家表示,孟加拉国将成为下一个“亚洲虎”。孟加拉国去年的经济增长率(7.8%)与印度基本持平(8.0%),远远高于巴基斯坦(5.8 %)。孟加拉国的人均债务(434美元)还不到巴基斯坦(974美元)的一半,其外汇储备(320亿美元)是巴基斯坦(80亿美元)的4倍。

Much of this growth owes to exports which zoomed from zero in 1971 to $35.8bn in 2018 (Pakistan’s is $24.8bn). Bangladesh produces no cotton but, to the chagrin of Pakistan’s pampered textile industry, it has eaten savagely into its market share. The IMF calculates Bangladesh’s economy growing from $180bn presently to $322bn by 2021. This means that the average Bangladeshi today is almost as wealthy as the average Pakistani and, if the rupee depreciates further, will be technically wealthier by 2020.

这一增长在很大程度上要归功于出口,出口从1971年的零出口增加到2018年的358亿美元(巴基斯坦为248亿美元)。国际货币基金组织估计,到2021年,孟加拉经济将从目前的1800亿美元增长至3220亿美元。这意味着今天孟加拉国人的平均财富几乎和巴基斯坦人的平均财富一样多,如果卢比进一步贬值,到2020年,孟加拉人将变得更富有。

孟加拉国首都达卡

Other indicators are equally stunning. East Pakistan’s population in the 1951 census was 42 million, while West Pakistan’s was 33.7m. But today Bangladesh has far fewer people than Pakistan — 165m versus 200m. A sustained population planning campaign helped reduce fertility in Bangladesh. No such campaign — or even its beginnings — is visible today in Pakistan.

其他指标也同样惊人。在1951年的人口普查中,东巴基斯坦(孟加拉国)人口为4200万,西巴基斯坦人口为3370万。如今孟加拉国的人口比巴基斯坦少得多——1.65亿 VS 2亿。持续的人口控制有助于降低孟加拉国的生育率。今天在巴基斯坦看不到这样的生育控制,甚至看不到开始的迹象

The health sector is no less impressive — far fewer babies die at birth in Bangladesh than in Pakistan. Immunisation is common and no one gets shot dead for administering polio drops. Life expectancy (72.5 years) is higher than Pakistan’s (66.5 years). According to the ILO, females are well ahead in employment (33.2pc) as compared to Pakistan (25.1pc).

卫生部门同样令人印象深刻——孟加拉国出生时死亡的婴儿远少于巴基斯坦。免疫接种很常见,而且没有人因为注射脊髓灰质炎疫苗而死亡。孟加拉国预期寿命(72.5岁)高于巴基斯坦66.5岁。根据国际劳工组织的数据,孟加拉国女性的就业率(33.2%)远于巴基斯坦(25.1%)。

How did West Pakistan’s poor cousin manage to upstage its richer relative by so much so fast? It’s all the more puzzling because Bangladesh has no geostrategic assets saleable to America, China, or Saudi Arabia. It also has no nuclear weapons, no army of significance, no wise men in uniform running the country from the shadows, and no large pool of competent professionals. At birth, East Pakistan had, in fact, no trained bureaucracy; it received just one member of the former Indian Civil Service.

西巴基斯坦的穷亲戚是如何如此迅速地抢了富亲戚的风头?更令人费解的是,孟加拉国没有可以出售给美国、中国或沙特阿拉伯的地缘战略资产也没有核武器,没有强大的军队,没有管理国家的英明人士以及大批有能力的专业人士。实际上,东巴基斯坦在一开始就没有受过训练的官僚机构一名前印度公务员。

None should be more surprised at these new developments than those West Pakistanis — like me — who went to school during the 1950s and 1960s and grew up surrounded by unconcealed racism. Short and dark Bengalis were reputedly good only for growing jute and rice and catching fish. They were Muslims and Pakistanis, of course, but as children we were made to imagine that all good Muslims and real Pakistanis are tall, fair, and speak chaste Urdu. We’d laugh madly at the strange-sounding Bengali news broadcasts from Radio Pakistan. In our foolish macho world, they sounded terribly feminine.

对这些新的事态发展,没有人比西巴基斯坦人更感到惊讶- -比如我,在1950年代和1960年代上学,在毫不掩饰的种族主义的氛围下长大的人。又矮又黑的孟加拉人据说只适合种植黄麻、水稻和捕鱼。我们会疯狂地嘲笑巴基斯坦广播电台播放的孟加拉语新闻,听起来很奇怪。在我们这个愚蠢的大男子主义世界里,它们听起来非常女性化。

The mega surrender of 1971 made West Pakistanis eat humble pie. But, even as the two-nation theory went out of the window, the overwhelming majority was loath to change its thinking. The west wing renamed itself Pakistan, many assuming this was temporary. They said Bangladesh could never survive economically and would humbly ask to be taken back.

1971年的大规模投降让西巴基斯坦人忍气吞声。但是,即使两国理论被抛到一边,绝大多数人也不愿意改变自己的想法。西巴基斯坦改名为巴基斯坦,许多人认为这是暂时的。他们说,孟加拉国永远无法在经济上生存下去,并将谦恭地要求被收回。

Others optimistically imagined that the disaster had taught Pakistan a profound lesson making change inevitable. Responding enthusiastically to the popular roti, kapra, makaan slogan, they believed Pakistan would shift from pampering its hyper-privileged ones towards providing welfare for all. Equally, it was hoped that the rights of Pakistan’s culturally diverse regions would be respected. None of this happened. Instead, we simply got more of what had been earlier.

其他人乐观地认为,这场灾难给巴基斯坦上了深刻的一课,使变革不可避免。他们对流行的“roti, kapra, makaan”口号反应热烈,他们相信巴基斯坦将从纵容其超级特权阶层转向为所有人提供福利。同样,人们希望巴基斯坦不同文化区域的权利将得到尊重。这些都没有发生相反,我们只是得到了更多以前的东西。

In a nutshell, Bangladesh and Pakistan are different countries today because they perceive their national interest very differently. Bangladesh sees its future in human development and economic growth. Goal posts are set at increasing exports, reducing unemployment, improving health, reducing dependence upon loans and aid, and further extending micro credit. Water and boundary disputes with India are serious and Bangladesh suffers bullying by its bigger neighbour on matters of illegal immigration, drugs, etc. But its basic priorities have not wavered.

简而言之,孟加拉国和巴基斯坦今天是两个不同的国家,对自己国家利益的理解非常不同。孟加拉国在人力发展和经济增长方面看到了未来。设立的目标是增加出口、减少失业、减少对贷款和援助的依赖以及进一步扩大信贷。与印度的水资源和边界争端十分严重,孟加拉国在非法移民、毒品等问题上受到邻国的欺凌但它的基本优先事项没有动摇。

For Pakistan, human development comes a distant second. The bulk of national energies remain focused upon check-mating India. Relations with Afghanistan and Iran are therefore troubled; Pakistan accuses both of being excessively close to India. But the most expensive consequence of the security state mindset was the nurturing of extra state actors in the 1990s. Ultimately they had to be crushed after the APS massacre of Dec 16, 2014. This, coincidentally, was the day Dhaka had fallen 43 years earlier.

对巴基斯坦来说,人类发展远远排在第二位。国家的大部分精力仍然集中在制衡印度上。与阿富汗和伊朗的关系因此陷入困境巴基斯坦指责这两个国家与印度的关系过于亲密

巴基斯坦黎明报读者评论:

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/47037.html  译者:Jessica.Wu

外文:https://www.dawn.com/news/1462757/why-bangladesh-overtook-pakistan

Talha

Excellent read based on facts and ground realities. I wish that Pakistani people and establishment realizes that the tactics of the past will no not work in the 21st century

以事实为依据,这篇文章写得好。我希望巴基斯坦人民和当权派认识到,过去的策略在21世纪不会奏效

 

Sachin

Excellent article!

好文章!

 

Surendra Ghate

It is surprising that there are no comments for such good article. Nicely explained and all supporting data is provided which no one can deny.

这么好的文章居然没有人评论,真是令人吃惊。写得很好,有理有据。

 

Kip

One of the only sane voices on the editorial of this national newspaper@

这是国家报纸社论中唯一理智的声音

 

Srk

Nice article. As author mentioned Bangladesh is not burdened by excessive defence spending or obsession with for being strategically located or geo politics. These have impacted focus on human development. There is no significant trade with any nations.

文章写得好。正如作者所提到的,孟加拉国国防开支不大,也没有被战略位置或地缘政治所困扰。这些都影响了对人类发展的关注。与任何国家都没有重的贸易往来。

 

tochibawa

One of the few sane voices in Pak.Analysis of history should be taken seriously.

巴基斯坦为数不多的理智声音之一。历史分析应该受到重视。

 

mohani

Pakistan spent 10 Billion dollars on its military, while Bangladesh spent only 2 billion in 2018. For 2019 its is going up by nineteen pct.This does not include pensions to the military personal.

巴基斯坦军事开支100亿美元,而孟加拉国在2018年仅花费了20亿美元。2019年,巴基斯坦军费将增加19%,这还不包括军人养老金。

 

Rahul Singh

One subtle point missed by everyone is the hidden implicit Indian support to Bangladesh.

所有人都忽略了一点,那就是印度暗中支持孟加拉国

 

Chacha Jee

Bengladesh has very wisely decided to accept its geo political location and made peace with India. In fact, Modi did land exchange with Bengladesh and Bengladesh got more land in the deal. Bengladesh pounce upon on anti Indian groups and as a result large textile investments and machinery flowed from India to Bengladesh.

孟加拉非常坦然地接受自己的地缘政治位置,并与印度达成和平。事实上,莫迪与孟加拉进行了土地交换,孟加拉在交易中获得了更多的土地。孟加拉抓住了反印度团体的机会,结果大量的纺织投资和机械从印度流向了孟加拉

 

akhan

A real wake up call for us all

真正唤醒我们所有人

 

Khaled

Excellent analysis, lesson to be learned.

分析得透彻,值得学习。

 

Ramrahim

I have never seen such a candid article before in any news paper. Very well articulated guide for any country, not only Pakistan.

我从未在新闻报纸上看到过写得如此直白的文章。不仅对巴基斯坦,对其他国家也有指导作用

 

Sacred voice

One of the best article of dawn.It summarise all Pakistani problems.The greed to have parity with India has destroyed Pakistan.Pakistan should focus on education,health and infrastructure rather than Kashmir, Palestine or Afghanistan.

《黎明报》最好的文章之一。它概括了巴基斯坦的所有问题。想要和印度平起平坐的欲望摧毁了巴基斯坦。巴基斯坦应该把重点放在教育、卫生和基础设施上,而不是克什米尔、巴勒斯坦和阿富汗。

 

Checkuroo R Venkat

Sir ..small clarification. India has resolved border issue with Bangladesh by exchanging territory/ villages with the population there two years ago.

Water sharing is also approved/ agreed by our Central Government ....but the CM of our Bengal State has objected to the same. Hopefully will be resolved soon.

澄清一点,印度两年前通过与孟加拉国人民交换领土/村庄,解决了与孟加拉国的边界问题。我们的中央政府也批准同意水资源共享。但是我们孟加拉州的邦首反对这么做。希望这个问题很快就能解决。

 

Wellwisher

What a beautifully written article. I had the privilege of visiting Bangladesh multiple times during 2002-2004 and was amazed at the tremendous hardworking mindset of the people despite all odds. People do have grievances against neighboring countries, but they always put the economic interests first

这篇文章写得真。2002年至2004年,我有幸多次访问孟加拉国,看到孟加拉人民不畏艰难、顽强拼搏的精神。虽然人们确实对邻国有不满,但他们总是把经济利益放在第一位

 

Prateik

Hope this brilliant write-up serves as an eye opener for Pakistan.

希望这篇文章能让巴基斯坦开拓眼界

 

Mumtaz Malik

As usual a great and informative piece by our talented professor. No one accepts that our defense spending is out of control

像往常一样,我们才华横溢的教授写了一篇内容丰富的文章。没有人承认我们的国防开支已经失控。

 

Human Rights

Good article we needs to make human development our top priority instead of spending Billion on defense.

好文章,我们需要把人类发展作为首要任务,而不是在国防上投入数十亿美元。

 

rafeeq

hope he is not tried for treason for speaking up the truth..

希望作者不会因为说出真相而被判叛国罪。

 

Sooraj

Bangladesh, settled all border issues with India, does not have to worry in defense spending. All it has worry about economic issues and that its making headway.

孟加拉国解决了与印度的边界问题,也就无需在国防上投入巨资了。现在所担心的只是经济问题

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