三泰虎

人工智能领域,中国能引领全球吗

Will China lead the world in artificial intelligence?

中国在人工智能领域能引领全球吗? 

 Quora读者的评论:

Paresh Choudhary, works at Transparency Market Research

China is intent on overtaking the US to lead the world in AI

Globally, there is a wave of artificial intelligence across various industries, especially consumer electronics and healthcare. The wave is likely to continue in the years to come with the expanding base of applications of the technology. The global market for artificial intelligence is expected to witness phenomenal growth over the coming years as organizations worldwide have started capitalizing on the benefits of such disruptive technologies for effective positioning of their offerings and customer reach.

According to a study by Transparency Market Research (TMR), the global market for artificial intelligence is estimated to post an impressive 36.1% CAGR between 2016 and 2024, rising to a valuation of US$3,061.35 bn by the end of 2024 from US$126.14 bn in 2015. The upward growth of the market is, however, hampered by the low upfront investments. The majority of companies operating in the market are facing difficulties in accumulating funds for early stage research and development of prototypes and their underlying technologies.

中国有意超越美国,在人工智能领域引领世界

在全球范围内,人工智能正席卷各个行业,尤其是消费电子和医疗行业。随着该技术应用基础的不断扩大,这股浪潮很可能在未来几年持续下去。全球人工智能市场预计将在未来几年见证惊人的增长,因为世界各地的机构已经开始对这种颠覆性技术投入资本,对其产品和客户范围进行有效定位。

根据透明市场研究公司(TMR)的一项研究,2016年至2024年间,全球人工智能市场的年复合增长率预计将达到36.1%,到2024年底,其估值将从2015年的1261.4亿美元攀升至3.0613.5亿美元。然而,前期投资不足阻碍了市场的上行增长。市面上的大多数公司在为技术原型及其基础技术的早期研究和开发积累资金方面都面临着重重困难。

译文来源:三泰虎  http://www.santaihu.com/47024.html  译者:Joyceliu

 

Michael Wilkins, Research Analyst

China is intent on overtaking the US to lead the world in AI. Their massive investment in artificial intelligence has an insidious downside.

The massive potential that artificial intelligence holds as a key enabler of digital transformation in diverse industry verticals is a key factor bolstering its applications in various industries, notably in the consumer electronics and healthcare sectors.

The artificial intelligence market is increasingly boosted by the growing incorporation of machine learning in a range of automation-powered products and services that businesses are offering world over.

TMR observes that focusing on technology improvements in the artificial intelligence may be become vital for discerning players to stay ahead of others. Some of the top players with sizeable shares in the global artificial intelligence market are Google Inc., IBM Corporation, Brighterion Inc., Next IT Corporation, and IntelliResponse Systems Inc.

中国有意超越美国,在人工智能领域引领世界。它们在人工智能领域的巨额投资也有潜在的负面影响。

人工智能作为不同行业垂直领域数字化转型的关键推动者所拥有的巨大潜力,是增强其在不同行业(尤其是消费电子和医疗行业)应用的关键因素。

随着机器学习越来越多地融入到企业在世界范围内提供的一系列自动化产品和服务中,人工智能市场得到了越来越大的提振。

TMR观察到,专注于人工智能技术的改进,对于独具慧眼的企业保持领先地位可能至关重要。在全球人工智能市场占有相当大份额的顶级公司有:谷歌、IBM、Brighterion、Next IT Corporation和IntelliResponse Systems。

 

Sumit Agarwal, Packaging Engineer (2014-present)

China will be the world’s dominant player in artificial intelligence by 2030. China is intent on overtaking the US to lead the world in AI.

China and the United States are neck-and-neck in a technology race that could define the future of the economy. China is expected to have high CAGR and can have upto $ 1 trillion economy in AI by 2030.

In the next few years the usage of artificial intelligence is anticipated to spread out to other business areas as well and thus the market will gain more revenue in the coming years.

到2030年,中国将成为全球人工智能领域的主导力量。中国有意超越美国,在人工智能领域引领世界。

在可能塑造经济未来局势的技术竞赛中,中国和美国势均力敌。预计到2030年,中国人工智能的综合年增长率将会很高,将达到1万亿美元的规模。

在未来的几年里,人工智能的应用预计也会扩展到其他商业领域,因此在未来几年,市场将获得更多的收入。

 

  1. A. Rehl, Human-Level AGI & Cognitive Theory Research (2013-present)

Well, let’s see. I am currently the world’s leading scientist in human-level machine intelligence. Let me check the mirror. No, I don’t look Chinese. Let me look outside. No, I’m not in China. Let me check my files. I have several years and hundreds of pages of research that have remain unpublished due to the election. It’s several decades ahead of what people (including those in China) think is cutting edge today. In contrast, China has journal articles that are overflowing with plagiarism and faked results.

The real questions are how long it will take China to catch up once the files are published, and if the US will cripple its own future research efforts by electing more incompetent Republican fools like Trump. However, even if American voters can’t get over their Fox addiction, I can’t see how China could pull ahead of western Europe without help, maybe from Japan and India.

嗯,让我们来分析一下。我现在是在全球人类级别的机器智能方面领先的科学家。我来照照镜子。不,我长得不像中国人。让我来看看窗外。哦,不,我也不在中国。我来检查一下我的文档。由于大选,我有好几年的时间和数百页的研究报告还没有发表。这比人们(包括中国人)今天所认为的领先了几十年。相比之下,中国的期刊文章充斥着剽窃和伪造的结果。

真正的问题是,一旦这些文件被公布,中国需要多长时间才能迎头赶上,美国是否会选择特朗普这样更加无能的共和党傻瓜,从而削弱自己未来的研究努力。然而,即使美国选民无法摆脱他们对狐狸的迷恋,我也看不出,如果没有了日本和印度的帮助,中国如何能领先于西欧。

 

Jan Krikke, Studied Chinese influence on modern world

If we distinguish between research and application, we could probably assume the US will lead in the former for the time being, but China is likely to lead in the latter within a decade or sooner. The following is from my recent article on Chinaese AI:

As “the factory of the world,” China makes many of the components that will fuel the AI revolution, including the “Internet of Things.” Not prone to existential deliberations, Chinese companies will focus on practical applications, off-the-shelf AI systems for specific domains ranging from self-driving cars to medical applications. Using their enormous economies of scale, these systems will be tested in China but may set global standards in the process. The power that comes from being the world’s largest hardware producer and having massive volumes of data on more than a billion people who share the same language and worldview can only be imagined.

如果我们对比研究和应用,我们可能会认为美国将暂时领先于中国,但中国可能在10年或更短的时间内超过美国。以下是我最近一篇关于中国人工智能的文章:

作为“世界工厂”,中国制造的许多部件将推动人工智能革命,包括“物联网”。中国企业将专注于实际应用,即针对从自动驾驶汽车到医疗应用等特定领域的现成人工智能系统。利用其巨大的规模经济,这些系统将在中国进行测试,但可能在此过程中设定全球标准。作为世界上最大的硬件生产商,拥有超过10亿人的海量数据,而这些人拥有相同的语言和世界观,这种力量是无法想象的。

The Chinese are not given to speculations about AGI being the last human technology before robots with superior intelligence take over and decide our faith. A Chinese entrepreneur, asked if robots could control humans in the future, pointed out that intelligence comes from the brain, but wisdom and love come from the heart. To the Chinese (and the Japanese, who assimilated Chinese culture but also retained their animist roots), developing robots of any kind is simply a matter of reconciling spirit and matter.

Human qualities like wisdom and love can be simulated but not duplicatied in non-biological systems. The human brain is not merely a calculating machine operating on binary/Boolean logic. It is embedded in a biological system with both analog and binary processes, with organs, tissues, a bloodstream, metabolism and sensorimotor functions. The human biological system is part of energy fields in nature and the cosmos. If we consider the world of quantum physics – and the Chinese claim that heavenly and earthly qi influence human qi – it is clear that the human brain is not a machine with a reset button. It is part of a process rather than a thing. To replicate this entire “system” would be a mind-boggling feat. A robot with AGI of this level would make no attempt to control humans. It would greet its human master in the morning with a bow, in a sign of humility and respect to its creator.

中国人不喜欢猜测,在拥有超强智能的机器人接管并决定我们的信仰之前,AGI是最后一项人类技术。一位中国企业家在被问及机器人未来能否控制人类时指出,智能基于大脑,而智慧和爱源自内心。对中国人(以及日本人,他们吸收了中国文化,但也保留了万物有灵论的根源)来说,开发任何类型的机器人都只是一种精神与物质的调和。

智慧和爱等此类人类特质可以在非生物系统中模拟,但无法复制。人类的大脑并不只是一台以二进制/布尔逻辑运行的计算机。它嵌入一个生物系统中,具有模拟和二元制处理过程,拥有器官、组织、血液、新陈代谢和感觉运动功能。人类的生物系统是自然界和宇宙能量场的一部分。如果我们分析量子物理学的世界——中国人认为天地之气影响人的气——很明显,人类的大脑并不是一台带有复位按钮的机器。它是过程中的一个环节,而不是一件事。复制整个“系统”会是一项令人难以置信的壮举。配置了AGI的机器人不会试图控制人类。它会在早晨向人类的主人鞠躬致意,表示对造物主的谦卑和尊重。

 

Sean McDirmid, lived in Beijing, China (2007-2016)

Seriously, did you know that one of the first production uses of GPUs in training neural networks happened in Beijing circa 2010? But the researcher to do it was a German….

Likewise, plenty of Chinese are at the forefront of AI research in the states, as are many people from many different countries. While china has vast Human Resources to draw on, unless they start getting serious about foreign talent, no, they aren't going to lead the world in AI or anything else fairly technical. The USA however, has a huge advantage in being much less xenophobic. On the other hand, once they wizen up, watch out!

说真的,你知道吗,GPU最早在神经网络的训练是在2010年左右的北京进行的?但研究人员是一名德国人…

同样,许多中国人和许多来自不同国家的人都处于美国人工智能研究的前沿。尽管中国有大量的人力资源可以利用,但除非他们开始认真对待外国人才,否则他们无法在人工智能或其他同等技术性的领域引领世界。美国有一个巨大的优势,就是比较不那么仇外。另一方面,一旦他们变聪明了,就要小心!

 

Anant Jain, Co-Founder, Commonlounge.com

Five factors are coming together in China that will make it an A.I. superpower in the next decade or so:

1.China has the lead in internet user numbers by country. According to FT, almost 800M users sent digital greetings for Lunar New Year in Feb 2018.

2.Chinese platforms are feature-rich, and hence, data-rich. Tencent’s WeChat spans various segments of consumer usage like photos, social networks, games, finances, etc. Alibaba is the e-commerce and retail giant in the country with data on searches, retail, payments, among others.

3.Compared to other countries, Chinese internet users are more willing to share their data. According to GfK Global Survey 2017 Report, China leads in percentage of people who responded that they are willing to share their personal data (health, financial, driving records, energy use, etc.) in exchange for benefits or rewards like lower costs or personalized service.

4.The Chinese Government is highly focused on developing AI. Last summer, China’s State Council issued an ambitious policy blueprint calling for the nation to become “the world’s primary AI innovation center” by 2030. It’s unknown how much China is going to spend over the next decade or so,

在未来10年左右的时间里,中国将成为一个人工智能超级大国。

1.按国家划分,中国在互联网用户数量上处于领先地位。据英国《金融时报》报道,2018年2月,近8亿用户发送了农历新年的电子贺卡。

2.中国的平台功能丰富,因此数据丰富。腾讯的微信覆盖了图片、社交网络、游戏、理财等多个消费领域。阿里巴巴是中国的电子商务和零售巨头,拥有搜索、零售、支付等方面的数据。

3.与其他国家相比,中国网民更愿意分享他们的数据。GfK 2017年全球调查报告显示,在愿意分享个人数据(健康、财务、驾驶记录、能源使用等)以换取更低成本或个性化服务等利益或回报的受访者中,中国所占比例最高。

4.中国高度关注人工智能的发展。去年夏天,中国国务院发布了一份雄心勃勃的政策蓝图,希望中国在2030年前成为“世界主要的人工智能创新中心”。目前还不清楚中国在未来10年左右的时间里将投入多少资金
 

Moreover, China’s progress over the past decade shows that this is actually working. In the Stanford Question Answering Dataset, an A.I. prediction benchmark that researchers are actively competing on right now, Alibaba and Microsoft tied for the top spot in January this year. Compare this to just eight years ago, when in Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge 2010, another benchmark at the time, the top Chinese entrant was at the 11th place.

The United States is still ahead for now, but China is focused, organized, and gaining rapidly.

此外,中国过去10年取得的进步表明,这是真实有效的。在斯坦福问答数据集中,阿里巴巴和微软在今年1月并列榜首。相比之下,仅仅8年前,在2010年大规模视觉识别挑战赛中,排名第一的中国选手尚只排在第11位。

美国目前仍处于领先地位,但中国正集中精力、井然有序地迅速崛起。

 

Tarry Singh, CEO, Founder & AI Researcher (2018-present)

Its extremely encouraging to see nations with huge scale, other than U.S taking a lead and bold steps in reinventing the future.

They stand so much to gain from the applications of meaningful artificial intelligence to solve problems in their infrastructure , healthcare, urban development domains.

Would be really great to see India too take on this challenge and make similar investments.

I really don't see this as a race, there are too many problems we need to solve overall.

China India

看到除美国以外的其他国家拥有如此庞大的规模是非常令人鼓舞的。在重塑未来的过程中,我们将率先迈出大胆的一步。

他们将通过极具意义的人工智能的应用来解决基础设施、医疗保健和城市发展领域的问题并获益匪浅。

如果能看到印度也接受这一挑战,进行类似的投资,那就真是太好了。

我真的不认为这是一场竞赛,我们需要解决的问题太多了。

中国 印度

 

Vladimir Arevshatyan, Android Application Developer at EPAM Systems (2017-present)

Yes!

China always tries to deploy some AI and always more and more AI and robots are being produced, the reason is total global control and CHINA has a huge market to be able to deploy millions of AI powered machines…my fears…

是的!

中国一直尝试应用某些人工智能,生产越来越多的人工智能产品和机器人,原因就是为了全局控制,中国有巨大的市场来部署数百万台人工智能驱动的机器……

 

Sunjeet Jena, A.I. Research Intern at Swaayatt Robots

Nope. None of the Asian countries will lead for at least for the next 10–15 years. The world leaders are and will continue to be USA, Canada, UK and Germany.

不可能。至少在未来10至15年,没有哪个亚洲国家能成为领头羊。不管现在还是将来,全球领军国家都会是美国、加拿大、英国和德国。

 

Andrea Jarak, Marketing Expert at Google

In the automotive industry for sure!

在汽车行业肯定会的!

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China is bullish about Artificial Intelligence (AI) and aims to incorporate the technology in different devices. Its plans about AI enabled cars are particularly ambitious as the country seeks to run 50 percent of its cars on AI by 2020.

While smart cars and AI enabled cars have made strong progress in the recent past, these vehicles have yet to prove their mettle in real life conditions.

中国对人工智能持乐观态度,并计划将该技术应用于不同的设备。中国的人工智能汽车计划尤其雄心勃勃,因为中国希望到2020年,能有50%的汽车采用人工智能技术。

虽然智能汽车和人工智能汽车在最近取得了长足的进步,但这些汽车的性能在现实生活中得到验证。

The AI Strategy

China’s new vision was unveiled recently as a top state planner said that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is looking for public feedback to draft its national smart car strategy. The plan to equip minimum 50 percent of all its new cars with AI by 2020 is a part of its National Smart Car Strategy.

China aims to dominate global AI market by 2025. Equipping its new cars with AI is a major step towards promoting Internet of Things (IoT) where products of everyday use are made smart with the use of Artificial Intelligence. For forming a cohesive policy about the achievement of these goals, China plans to set up a national level team comprising the officials from the State Council.

人工智能策略

中国的新愿景是最近公布的,国家发改委的一名高级规划人员表示,发改委正在征求公众反馈,起草其国家智能汽车战略。作为国家智能汽车战略的一部分,中国计划到2020年至少为50%的新车配备人工智能。

中国的目标是到2025年主导全球人工智能市场。为新车配备人工智能是推动物联网的重要一步。在物联网中,日常使用的产品因为人工智能变得聪明。为了制定实现这些目标的统一政策,中国计划建立一个由国务院官员组成的国家级团队。

The Holistic Approach

China has taken a well rounded approach towards the promotion of AI based smart car technology. With endorsing of AI enabled cars, the country also plans to make a major portion of its road connected to a wireless data network. Both these steps will ensure the development of a truly connected and smart transportation system.

Smart transportation system is a highly productive use of Artificial Intelligence. It is particularly useful in the case of countries such as China which, on account of their large population or small land mass, suffer from traffic congestion and high accident rates. As more people in China start using cars, further congesting the system, the use of AI may help in resolving many issues such as proper traffic management and safety.

However, it is not just about smart transportation system as China aims to grow its AI expertise in the coming decade. The country plans to be a pioneer in the field by 2025 while it also endeavors to master the production of world class smart cars by 2035.

整体方案

中国在推广基于人工智能的智能汽车技术方面采取了整体方案。随着对人工智能汽车的认可,中国还计划将大部分道路连接到无线数据网络。这两个步骤将确保一个真正互联和智能交通系统的开发。

智能交通系统是人工智能的高效应用。这在象中国这样的国家特别有用,因为这些国家的人多地少,交通拥挤和事故率高。随着越来越多的中国人开始驾驶汽车,使用人工智能可能有助于解决许多问题,如妥善的交通管理和安全。

中国计划在未来10年提高人工智能技术水平,而不仅仅局限于智能交通系统。中国计划到2025年成为这一领域的先锋,同时力争到2035年掌握世界级智能汽车的生产。

Utility of Smart Cars in China

China plans to build world class smart transportation infrastructure and smart cars are going to be a vital part of that system. The country expects to draw tremendous benefits from its smart transportation policy. The use of AI in the car is vital for autonomous operations.

Such self driving cars are safer as they are less prone to make mistakes common to human drivers. Such cars also do not succumb to distraction, making them a safer option than human driven cars. Such safety is paramount in countries such as China which grapple with high rate of road accidents. Hopefully they are not hacked into though like we saw in Fast and Furious 8 and even that CSI Las Vegas episode!

China’s planned smart transport system will allow these AI enabled cars to communicate with each other, whereby these cars will be able to share information regarding the road conditions, traffic, and so on. Such sharing of data will make the traffic and transportation much safer by choosing better and more efficient routes.

However, such smart system has its drawbacks as well. Such systems are prone to hacks (as just stated) which may disrupt the whole network and may lead to massive loss of data and other resources. China is likely to keep such roadblocks in mind developing its smart transportation system and remedy the situation. In the coming years, China will be a force to reckon with in the field of AI if there financial system does not collapse but let’s remain positive here

智能汽车在中国的应用

中国计划建设世界一流的智能交通基础设施,智能汽车将是该体系的重要组成部分。中国希望能从智能交通中获得巨大的利益。在汽车中使用人工智能对自动操作至关重要。

这种自动驾驶汽车更安全,因为它们不太容易犯人类司机常见的错误。这样的车也不会分心,比人类驾驶的车更安全。在中国这样一个交通事故高发率的国家,这样的安全是至关重要的。希望他们不会像我们在《速度与激情8》甚至CSI拉斯维加斯那集里看到的那样被黑!

中国的智能交通系统将使得这些人工智能汽车能够相互通信,使这些汽车能够共享有关道路状况、交通等方面的信息。这种数据共享能帮车辆选择更好、更高效的路线,使交通和运输更加安全。

但是这种智能系统也有其缺点。这样的系统很容易被黑客攻击(如前所述),可能会扰乱整个网络,并可能导致大量的数据和其他资源的流失。中国很可能会牢记发展智能交通系统的这些障碍,并采取补救措施。在未来几年,如果金融系统不崩溃,中国将成为人工智能领域的一股力量,但让我们保持乐观拭目以待吧。

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