Who will be the top superpower 50 years from now?
Colin Trimon, lives in The Netherlands (1998-present)
- The US, although not nearly as influential as they once were.
- Federal EU, I believe when an European army becomes a thing we can kiss our sovereignty goodbye. A federal EU would have a population of 510 million people. But personally I believe a federal EU will not happen, this idea isn’t very popular.
- China, If I had a penny for every time I read somewhere that this year (2014, 2015 etc) would be disastrous for the Chinese and they would collapse I would be a rich man.
- India, while India certainly has the resources there are a lot of problems they need to solve before they could become a “superpower” such as the differences between rich and poor, and strange counter productive cultural practices.
I feel inclined to mention Brazil, but I do not believe they will ever become a superpower. I believe Brazil will be a regional power that will dominate South America while being an invaluable ally to another superpower.
Nobody from 1900 would have accurately predicted 1920, let alone 1950. I am not a clairvoyant and this is pure speculation. Who knows what will happen tomorrow?
Dmitro Novosad, Fascinated by Geo Politics
It depends on which scenatio is chosen by human history:
- Most likely scenario is this:
We witness another World War with consiquences somewhat similar to WW2, namely:
oUSA stays the superpower it is today, likely gets even more powerful thanks to it’s georgaphical advantage, which spares it of destruction, just like in WW2;
oEurope will bear the brunt of the damage of the next World War and will be busy rebuilding again, the amount of power it keeps depends on the result of the transformations going on with the EU in the next decade - it either finally becomes “The United States of Europe” or vanishes almost completely, the first outcome will see it becoming a superpower, the latter only makes it more vulnerable;
Russia will continue on it’s cycle of rises and falls, new ways of filling humanity’s energy demands would leave Russia on the sidelines of prosperity and progress and the consequences it has to bear for it’s warmongering today and for the foreseeable future would not allow it to reorient it’s economy away from fossil fuels and catch up to the rest of the world. Russia simply does not have a potential of becoming a superpower. So Russia will probably get itself in troubles once more by it’s all talk and no substance superpower ambitions and get it’s teeth knocked out again both from the inside and the outside;
oIndia has lots of problems, which would become even more serious with the global warming and will spend the next 50 years dealing with them, hopefully successfully.
oAfrica gets in even more dire situation with the global temperatures on the rise;
oMiddle East is filled with muslims.
- The least likely scenario, but the one I personally choose to hope for:
oThe progress in space exploration, robotics and AI, new ways to fill our energy needs (fusion, green energy, next gen nuclear), the need to deal with the global challenges (global warming, food shortage, new global virus outbreaks e.t.c.) together as a humanity united will gradually erase the borders between nations and differences between raсes and people and launch us into a new generation of peace and progress and exploration.
It’s hard to tell, it’s easy for the course of a country to change on a dime in fifty years. Japan went from regional power to warstruck nation and back to regional economic power in only forty. But based on what we know today, there are a couple that have potential.
1.China - it has a growing economy combined with a determined people and leadership.
2.United States - its already a superpower. Though politically divided, it’s government is still relatively stable. Superpowers with stable governments tend to have slow declines rather than sudden falls. So barring a catastrophe, it will likely to still be a superpower in 50 years.
3.The European Union - Though Brexit has rocked it as an economic/political block, like many countries (cough***USA***cough), citizens have the same rights in other member states as they do at home, goods move across borders without tariffs, and citizens move across borders without passports. Though we don’t know it the UK will return, if it will destablalize the entire system in the coming years, will end up being a relatively easy separation, or will lead to war (think American Civil War), it is one of, if not the largest economic blocks in the world. Should the EU move towards becoming a solidified country, it would be a superpower.
Vicente Negrete, studied at Ibero-American University
China for sure.
Once an old and wise friend (88 now) told me a story about his neighbor. The neighbor was the owner of one of the largest clothing companies in Mexico and some Chinese arrived one day to his factory offering to produce all of what he did close to 10% of his cost. He told them no thanks and they just asked if the could take some samples to make him an offer.
He said yes just to get rid of them and a couple of months went by when the Chinese showed up again with some items, they showed them to him and he couldn’t distinguish between his items and theirs. They offered to manufacture all his products at a final 13% of his actual cost. So naturally I asked. What did he do?
He said; No thanks!
I asked why and he told me what the neighbor explained to him:
If I say yes, I will fire all my employees, some have been with me for 40 years, I will sell all my equipment, sell or lease my factories and when I’m not able to produce anything anymore, they will come back and tell me that the price has gone up to 200% of what I was paying before they arrived, I’ll be out of business in a couple of months and they will take over all my clients.
US should have been as wise as this man 30 years ago, now the chips are in place and there is nothing anyone can do to stop the outcome.
Danny Sunvold, studied at Virginia Tech
United States: the US will be the most dominant power for likely the next 75–100 years. After that, they’ll still be a superpower, but will be equal to other superpowers. The US economy is still the most dominant in the world, and though China is beginning to overtake the US in terms of GDP size, the GDP per capita in the US will still be vastly superior to that of China’s. Not to mention, but the US is still decades ahead of China/Russia/everyone else in many military aspects.
China: speaking of China, they will certainly be a superpower in 50 years. Hell, they’ll be a superpower within the next 15 years. Their economy is still growing, and they are the dominant force in East Asia. They will have problems to contend with, but they’ll be able to muster through those.
Russia: this is the least likely of the three. Russia is not the big, scary place that it was when it was part of the USSR. Their economy is still stagnant, and their military, while formidable, is still light-years behind, conventionally (for the most part), the US. Russia being a superpower once more will depend on how fast the Artic melts. If it’s relatively quick (as in, it happening within the next 50–75 years), then they will become a dominant force once more. They stand to benefit from Climate Change, as the melting Artic will open up trade lanes there. Besides that, there’s untold amounts of resources that remain untapped in Siberia.
Other than that, maybe India? But even them I’m not sure about that. The EU will not be, as I believe we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the European Union. It will be slow, but I do not believe there will be any sort of political/economic union between the countries of Europe 50 years from now, let alone any sort of European united military force. Really, no other countries have the capacities, let alone the will, to take on the role of being a superpower. Believe it or not, it’s not a role that is coveted by every single nation. A good amount of the world is content with the way things are.
Erik Fogg, Studied International Relations at MIT, earning Bachelor/Masters. Focus on China
Hey! I graduated MIT with a bachelor/master in political science, focusing on International Relations. Studied China for a long time, and it’s the “easy” answer to say that in 2065, China will be on top.
China may also simply not be interested in being a global superpower. China’s focus is on China: it does not have global takeover ambitions, and never has. Its ambitions are to have security, and respect from the other global powers.
It’s also a pragmatic country: it knows being a superpower is very expensive and drags a country into foreign wars. China may not want to be the world police—if someone else can subsidize free trade and global stability, China may want to stand aside as long as someone else is footing the bill.
George Friedman actually predicts that the United States will resurge as a global power, in his book, The Next 100 Years. Worth reading
50 Years from now, I would say the current global order will stay as such. US will remain as the top superpower with Chinese nagging right under their nose. Meanwhile India will be sheer powerful than what it is right now but it will never become a superpower because of it’s global policies. India never have a global foreign policy and it never will have.
US with it’s top of the line army and tech line up will remain as the unchallenged superpower. But it’s almost certain that US will be forced to face tons and tons of domestic problems than it is dealing with now.
China with their aggressive attitude will try to control the whole of Asia with Japan and India being it’s biggest opponents in house and America on a global level. But when China climbs two steps on the ladder, US climbs four and hence they will never reach the level of US.
On top of everything, I would like to say, empires have fallen down in days from the height of their mightiness. Rome was the perfect example. In India Mughal empire came down to nothing within 100 years. So all these things are highly unpredictable.
Ambarish Chatterjee, Time Traveller through Internet
There is no guesses. I am certain U.S.A will remain the top Superpower 50 years from now. Why? Because of their robust economy, efficient military, unmatched global influence. No other country in this world have these 3 thing all together.
About China, definitely they will be superpower, but not at the top. Actually most of the prediction about China is Myth
About Russia, one of the top superpower during cold wars, but too much were lost after the breaking up of USSR. And then years after years of economic sanctions by the west crippled it's economy. Now though with new aggressive stand by Vladimir Putin, if we think Russia is becoming top superpower, we will be wrong. Still Russia heavily depend upon Arms Deals with India, China and other small countries. If that stops, they economy will be crippled again.
EU disintegrating slowly. within 50 year, I am sure, major powers in EU will exit from it.
About India, she just started her journey in global arena. A developing country, not developed yet. And with democratic governance, there are many road blocks. if India can be an economic power in 50 years, that would be the biggest achievement. Superpower is not her cup of tea.
1.The United States of America will be the top superpower 50 years from now. It has and will push for a strong military force throughout its lifetime. Also, the U.S. is one of the first countries to experience peace and will maintain that global peace. The United States’ currency is used worldwide due to its reliability.
2.India is most likely to grow its power and become a superpower. It currently has a young and growing population that can push the India’s economy forward. The grand issue India is facing is poverty which affects about 1/3 of its population.
Honorable Mention: China seems to be at the verge of becoming a superpower, but faces many large internal issues that will soon negatively affect it. China is regarded as a major trading nation today and will be in the future, but if these internal dilemmas plague the country any more, China will not become a superpower within 50 years.
Michael A. Johnson, lives in The United States of America
I didn't read the other answers, but I'm sure they will agree. In 50 years time I believe that the world will have two superpowers. China and India. Both have large and diverse economies that seem to be slowing down no time soon. Both are heavily investing in modernized militaries, most importantly in their navies. Both are already nuclear armed countries. Most importantly both have large populations that can pull massive manpower in all fields. Really the world is returning to its natural state with China and India as the dominant powers.
Tatsat Mishra, works at Freelancing
China. The present world understands economic power more than military power. With the grand plan of one belt one road and maritime silk route China will realise it's aim of becoming the centre of world