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印度经济能超过中国经济和美国经济吗

Can the Indian economy overtake China and the US?

印度经济能超过中国经济和美国经济吗?

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quora读者的评论:

译文来源:三泰虎  http://www.santaihu.com/46672.html

Rahul Raviprasad, Top Writer at Quora (2018-present)
Answered Sep 16

Can it happen? - Anything can happen.

How likely it is to be concerned about it?

It’s not possible for a long time even with very high GDP growths of say 15–20% (like 10+ years), keeping inflation in check
There are a lot of structural and economic reforms needed.
There are a lot of changes possible in the future and dynamics change to comment on it, like wars, changes in global politics
China and US can also transform or have another breakthrough and move forward faster, making it difficult to overtake.

I think there is a lot of work that needs to be done and lots of improvement and structural reforms we should be worrying about.

可能吗?一切皆有可能

可能性有多大?

很长一段时间内不可能,即便GDP保持比如15-20%的高速增长,也不可能。

要超过中国经济和美国经济,印度经济必须进行大量结构改革。

未来有很多变数,比如爆发战争,比如全球政治改变。

中国和美国也可能改革,也可能实现另一个突破,然后加速发展。这么一来,印度经济要超过中国经济和美国经济就很难了

 

Deepak Kumar

after 50 years may be yes.

50年后也许能超过

 

Jagabandhu Mishra, former Chief Conservator of Forests. at Government of India (1985-2012)

It is not possible in future. We do not have mineral resources and oil resources like USA and China. Our problem is we are dependent on import of crude oil, natural gas and gold. Even we import coking coal for steel and alloys production. Indian economy is affected by fluctuation in Rupee value and price of crude oil. It is better to have bio fuel and electric vehicles to counter the use of price rise of crude oil. The export of India need to be increased every year. The present weak Rupee may help the export sector of India. We may get scope in USA for export of steel, alluminium and engineering goods. We may also get chance to export more food products to other countries. We may have to explore the Bay of Bengal for oil and gas reserve. We may have to explore the Ganga valley and Manipur for oil and gas. If we can discover some oil deposits we may save foreign exchange. Another area is exploration for Gold deposits. The old workings of Gold may have to started again for domestic production of Gold. All these steps may help the economy of India. No need to compete with USA or China. We have our strength and weakness to grow in the world.

未来不大可能。我们不具备美国和中国那样充足的矿产资源和石油资源,原油、天然气和黄金依赖进口。

就连炼钢用的焦煤也需要进口

印度经济受卢比币值和原油价格波动的影响。

为了抵消原油价格上涨造成的影响,我们最好推动生物燃料和电动汽车的使用。

卢比目前的疲软,对印度出口行业也是利好。

我们可以开发孟加拉湾,作为石油和天然气的储备。

勘探恒河区和曼尼普尔邦,看看是否有石油天然气。

如果有,我们就能节省外汇。

以上种种措施,或许能助力印度经济的发展。

印度没必要和美国比,也没必要和中国比

我们有自己的优势,也存在不足

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