三泰虎

如何看2030年的印度、巴基斯坦和中国

How do you see India, Pakistan and China in 2030?

你怎么看2030年的印度、巴基斯坦和中国?

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Quora评论翻译:

Chandravadan Trivedi, former Retired Fishery Scientist

China: an important trade partner in Africa & would have its foot prints in South America. Trump would have leveraged his acumen to decelerate Chinese commerce in US & its allies. Having improved India’s health, China will be irked & would be firing all cylinders to curtail India’s growth.

India: Modi would have straightened the lives of majority of Indians, & with bubbling economy, Trump would have reposed more faith in India, an axis with Britain - Japan - France & Germany with these 2 biggest democracies would become a strong group to take on Chinese hagemony. Future countries to join this group would be Brazil, Indonesia, Australia, Ukraine, & Norway.

中国:非洲的重要贸易伙伴,并将在南美留下足迹。特朗普本可以利用自己的聪明才智,减缓中国在美国及其盟友国的商业活动。在印度的状况改善之后,中国将感到厌烦,并将竭尽全力遏制印度的增长。

印度:莫迪会改善大多数印度人的生活,随着经济泡沫的出现,特朗普会对印度抱有更大的信心,英、日、法、德将与这两个最大的皿煮国家结成轴心,成为一个强大的团体,去挑战中国的霸权。未来加入该组织的国家将是巴西、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚、乌克兰和挪威。

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46624.html    译者:Jessica.Wu

 

Ruddy, Article at At CA Firm (2012-present)

Thanks for A2A :)

It is good question about future of close neighbours.

INDIA :

  • During the next four decades, India is likely to be able to achieve a real per capita GDP growth rate of 5.5%. As a consequence, measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, India—the fourth largest economy today—will overtake Japan by 2020 and the United States by 2040.
  • In next 25–30 years India need to invest more in infra.
  • Metro rail will be effective in 15–20 major cities by 2030.
  • In space sector ISRO will rule.
  • More terror activities in India which ultimately improve combat capabilities of Indian soldiers. India will introduce more lethal weapons in next decades which are under process.
  • By 2030 there is no chance of India become developed nation.

PAKISTAN :

  • Seeing to current political situation, there is high chance of winning hafez saeed or there may be milatry rule.
  • Recently UN put PK in “GREY LIST” for funding terrorist activities. There are high chance of Black list & many sanctions May imposed in soon years.
  • PK economy wholly depend on CPEC which may restrict development.

CHINA :

  • Chinese economy will boom in next decade with 2times.
  • Recent trade war if continous may badly affect economy of China.
  • Promoting PK & remain silent in UN may show unfaith among rest of nation in China.
  • There may be decisive change on issue of south china sea.

NOTE : IT IS JUST VIEW WITH NO RESPOSIBILITY THAT VIEW MAY ACHEIVE. FORECAST ARE GIVEN CONSIDERING THE RECENT & LIKELY HAPPEN SITUATION.

印度:

  • 在接下来的四十年里,印度是有可能实现5.5%人均GDP增长率。结果,以购买力平价(PPP)计算,作为当今第四大经济体的印度将在2020年超过日本,在2040年超过美国。
  • 在未来25-30年里,印度需要在基础设施方面投入更多。到2030年,15-20个主要城市的地铁将开始运营。ISRO将统治太空领域。
  • 印度发生将更多恐怖活动,最终提高了印度士兵的作战能力。印度将在未来几十年引进更多致命武器。
  • 然而,到2030年,印度不可能成为发达国家。

巴基斯坦:

  • 从目前的政治形势来看,赢得哈菲兹•赛义德的可能性很大,或者可能将由军政府统治。

最近联合国将巴基斯坦列入资助恐怖活动的“灰名单”。列入黑名单的可能性很大,可能在不久的将来对其实施多项制裁。

  • 巴基斯坦经济将完全依赖“中巴经济走廊”,这可能会限制其发展。

中国:

  • 在未来十年,中国经济将快速增长,翻两番。
  • 最近的贸易战如果持续下去可能严重影响中国经济。
  • 在联合国支持巴基斯坦可能会让其他国家对中国产生不信任感。
  • 南海问题或发生决定性变化。

注:以上观点只是基于近期可能发生的情况,给出的预测。

 

Darshan Gowda, lives in India (2000-present)

No one can be so sure about the future but yah you can predict.

So here is what I see….

Economic conditions…

Pakistan - if Pakistan resolves it international conflicts & continue to have good relationship with it's allies than it is surely going to make some good. But (goo to the first word)

China - if China does not fix it's international and neighborhood conflicts on trade then I see a huge drop in it's economic growth. But being a huge nation you can't say what's coming.

India - if I write on what I'm seeing then Indian can jump on the chart to 2nd position in economic growth leaving China & rusia. Having only America to be suppressed to be a economic giant.

Defense….

Pakistan - it is well know that Pakistan spends 27% of it's total income on defense so if it survives next 5 to 10 years it can have a really strong military power.

China - is already having a strong military support 2nd largest in the world presently. But if it faces any sort of crisses then we may see a cut off on military expansion.

Indian - is presently the fourth biggest military regime in the world so in upcoming we might grow even stronger.

没人能确定未来将发生什么,但可以预测。

以下是我所能预见的:

经济方面:

巴基斯坦:如果巴基斯坦解决了国际冲突,并继续与盟友保持良好关系,那么它肯定能实现一些增长。

中国:如果中国不解决国际贸易冲突,以及和邻国之间的贸易冲突,那么我认为中国的经济增长将大幅下滑。但中国是一个大国,你无法预测未来会发生什么。

印度:印度在经济增长方面将跃升到第二位,超过中国和俄罗斯。只待超越美国,成为经济巨人。

国防:

巴基斯坦:众所周知,巴基斯坦的国防开支占其总收入的27%,如果它能在未来5到10年继续保持,它就能拥有真正强大的军事实力。

中国:目前已经拥有世界第二大军事实力。如果它面临任何形式的危机,我们可能会看到其军事扩张进程被切断。

印度:目前是世界第四大军事强国,接下来可能会变得更强大

 

Bharat Nadhani, former Ex Mg Director

India likely to topple Chinese Economy and its Army Power, provided :

1.Reservation will go by 2025

2.No subsidy to so called pretended poor.

3.Efficiency must be rewarded and downsizing the administrative wings of all the Governments.

4.The Governor of State may be elected like President and the elected M.P of that state will perform the duty of assembly. No need to maintain such large sized and number of two tier Assebly. Expenses without sufficient return! If one Governor can govern two state, one M.P may attend both the house of Law.

5.Court will deliver its verdict within 730 days.

6.More reliance on Taxes and sale of NSC , KVP will be stopped. It gives incentive to states to spend undesirable heads like Advertisement, Stone foundation ceremony etc.

7.The regime of Flower, stole and gifts to be stopped till the loan is reedeemed

The Economy of China will be onslaught for lesser demand from India and Anglo Saxon Countries.

Pakistan will continue to betray the China. For geophysical presence , China can not part the Pakistan & North Korea. So both will be baggage for China.

印度有可能超过中国的经济和军事实力,如果:

1.在2025年取消预留制

2.取消给伪贫困户提供补贴。

3.必须提高效率,给予奖励,缩减少所有政府行政部门的规模。

4邦首由选举产生,就像选总统一样。邦首直接履行议会职责,没有必要维持如此大的规模和双层议会。花出去的费用根本没有足够的回报!如果一个邦首可以管理两个邦,那他就可以同时出席两邦议会。

5.法院能在730天内做出判决。

6.更多的依靠税收。各邦停止在在不受欢迎的头像的花费,如广告、石雕塑奠基仪式等。

中国经济将受到来自印度和盎格鲁-撒克逊国家需求减少的冲击。

巴基斯坦将继续背叛中国。由于地缘政治因素,中国不能分割巴基斯坦和朝鲜。因此,二者都将成为中国的包袱。

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