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哪个国家会首先使用核武器

What country will use a nuke as a first strike?

哪个国家会首先使用核武器?

Quora评论翻译:

Rohan Gupta

Answered Jun 29, 2017 · Upvoted by Abhishek Yadav (अभिषेक यादव), M.A. Politics & International Relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University (2015)

A list of countries with nuclear weapons:

  • China
  • France
  • Russia
  • United States of America
  • United Kingdom
  • India
  • North Korea
  • Pakistan
  • Israel

Countries with a no strike first policy:

  • India
  • China

Countries with a defensive only policy:

  • Russia
  • United Kingdom
  • United States of America
  • Israel

21-Israel.png

This leaves France, North Korea and Pakistan.

As France is a very developed and stable country, it’s much less likely to use nukes first.

That leaves North Korea and Pakistan.

Pakistan has had a first attack policy since 1971 and is bordering it’s biggest rival, India.

North Korea, on the other hand, has threatened a strike against the United States of America, but doesn't actually possess the technology to deliver the nuclear weapon.

Therefore I think Pakistan is the most likely nation to use nukes as a first strike.

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46622.html    译者:Jessica.Wu

拥有核武器国家名单:中国、法国、俄罗斯、美国、英国、印度、朝鲜、巴基斯坦、以色列。

奉行不首先使用核武器政策的国家:印度、中国

防御性使用核武器的国家:俄罗斯、英国、美国、以色列

算下来,就剩下法国、朝鲜和巴基斯坦了。由于法国是一个非常发达和稳定的国家,不太可能首先使用核武器。那就只剩下朝鲜和巴基斯坦了。巴基斯坦与最大的竞争对手印度接壤,自1971年以来奉行首先使用核武器政策。而朝鲜虽然威胁要对美国发动袭击,但实际上并不掌握制造核武器的技术。因此,我认为巴基斯坦是最有可能首先使用核武器的国家。

 

 

Ricardo Holmer Hodara, PhD Mind Articulation from Ufrgs and Others (2000)

I don't believe that throughout normal times in international politics — even with many conventional wars being waged in the world indirectly with participation of Russia and USA or other nuclear powers — any country will do a first nuclear strike except in these two following situations of geopolitics unbalance:

1.Let's divide the world in two or more nuclear blocks. One unexpected alliance overcome the residual block which however consists in a real threat to the main new group. The new alliance does the first strike.

2.The same context above but exactly in the opposite direction: the residual nuclear block does the first nuclear strike.

Today however there is much more probability of a first nuclear strike from a terrorist group with the special purpose to artificially advance the previous situation I formulated before in my text: to create a new dangerous alliance and residual nuclear war. Smart nuclear terrorists could act as Isaac Asimov had claimed one day in sci-fi — with the same purpose of their personages — The Gentle Vultures. The remote — despite not negligible — possibility of selling nuclear bombs to terrorists does exist and could be associated to the least internationally control compliant countries: Pakistan and North Korea (NK is less probable).

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My correspondent (when I was a teenager!!) in memorian

Regards

我认为,在国际政治的正常时期,即使在俄罗斯、美国或其他核大国间接参与常规战争的情况下,任何国家都不会发动首次核打击。

然而,当今的恐怖组织发动第一次核攻击的可能性要大得多,其特殊目的是人为地推进局势的发展,建立一个新的危险联盟。聪明的核恐怖分子可以像艾萨克•阿西莫夫(Isaac Asimov)在科幻小说中宣称的那样,扮演温和的秃鹫。向恐怖分子出售核弹的可能性虽然不容忽视,这种遥远的可能性确实存在,而且可能与最不服从国际控制的国家脱不了干系:巴基斯坦和朝鲜(朝鲜的可能性较小)。

 

Divyansh Mishra, B.A.L.L.B from National Law School of India University, Bangalore (2023)

I think that no country will ever use nuclear weapons because in today’s world where almost every major power in the world is apprehensive when it comes to nuclear weapons and even if a country uses a nuclear weapon it will have face the nuclear wrath of 8 other nuclear powers.

see though we know that countries like North Korea and Pakistan are full crooked people running the country, it is highly unlikely that they will ever use nukes. Because a country which can develop nukes are capable of understanding the consequences.

 

In today’s world if any country uses nukes it will mean its end - reason is simple just because there was a suspicion that Iraq possesses WMD, USA invaded Iraq in 2003 and use of any types of nukes in the world would be considered a threat for the USA and it would be the one of the first countries to reply ( possibly even before the country which was attacked )

Any nuclear attack can be done only by consensus between the nuclear powers to attack and that is highly unlikely.

In the modern world there aren’t gonna be any wars between countries, it would only be against terrorism

Even countries are going to fight through terrorist organisation, a classic example of which is Pakistan funding terrorist for creating unrest in India instead of directly indulging in a war .

我认为没有一个国家会使用核武器。因为几乎每个大国都对核武器感到担忧,即如果有一个国家使用了核武器,它将面临其他8个核大国的忿怒。

像朝鲜和巴基斯坦这样的国家,通过荒谬的声明和导弹试验,只是试图在其他国家中引起恐惧。

在当今世界,如果任何国家使用核武器将意味着自取灭亡。仅因为怀疑伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器,美国便在2003年入侵伊拉克。在世界上使用任何类型的核武器都将被认为是对美国的威胁,美国将是最早作出回应的国家之一(甚至可能在遭到攻击的国家之前)。

任何核攻击都只能通过核大国之间的协商一致来进行,但这是极不可能发生的。

在现代世界,国家之间不会有战争,只会共同打击恐怖分子。

甚至有些国家也会通过恐怖组织发动攻击,一个典型的例子就是巴基斯坦资助恐怖分子在印度制造骚乱,而不是直接发动战争。

 

Rajashree Ananya

None. Only Pakistan and N. Korea are known to have a first strike policy. France is usually peaceful and they are tired of their wars with the British anyway. They let their tailors and winemasters win the wars.

Now, Korea knows if it nukes the USA, it is going to get annihilated in the next 2 days. USA doesn't need any ally.

Pakistan knows all too well that it will be a desert that it already is, but this time without any life in it, if it nukes India.

See, wars are won with strategy and logistics. Korea lacks logistics. Pakistan lacks strategy and logistics to counter a counter strike if India decides to wipe it out. Remember, India has her best buddy Israel and old friend Russia to support. It's such a bad idea to mess with India if you're Pakistan. Even for a suicidal attempt.

都不会。只有巴基斯坦和朝鲜有首先使用核武器的政策。法国通常是和平的,他们已经厌倦了和英国的战争。

朝鲜也知道如果使用核武器攻击美国,它将在两天内被灭掉。美国不需要任何盟友。

巴基斯坦非常清楚,如果它用核武器攻击印度,它将变成一个沙漠,一个没有任何生命的沙漠。

战争是靠战略和后勤取胜的。后勤是朝鲜的短板。如果印度决定消灭巴基斯坦,巴基斯坦缺乏应对反击的战略和后勤保障。但请记住,印度需要她最好的朋友以色列和老朋友俄罗斯的支持。和印度开战对巴基斯坦来说真的是个坏主意,即使是自杀性袭击。

 

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