Will the Indian economy exceed China?
Harsh Bansal, Civil Servant at Government of India (2017-present)
India has a big advantage which china does n’t which is demographic dividend.India’s 65% population is below 35 and on the other hand China’s population is ageing which led to Increase in labor cost.When labor cost will rise then all manufacturing companies try to shift their base in country where they will get abundant labor at low cost.This will be our India.
But Tricky part is there that we have to make successful our “Make In India” and “Skill India” initiative through various reforms like Tax reforms, reducing red tap-ism, labor reforms and also focus on massive infrastructure building like roads,railways etc .
If all this done properly through political stability then definitely Indian economy exceed China.
I wish that dream become reality so that we can ensure economic justice to people which is promised by Preamble of Constitution.
Naby Souleymane Bangoura
It’s possible but it’s unlikely. China has been growing just as fast as India if not faster and India has only JUST began to grow faster thanks to Modi. China had a 15 year head start. Also I think the socialism has helped China because it educates the new generation and because the state supports most businesses financially; India is capitalist and its democracy means decisions take time to take effect. I’d say India has the potential to exceed China sometime between 2050 and 2070
Robbie Jena, Industrial Ecosystems and Strategy Architect
Not for 70 years…then we shall see…
Liu Chenshuo（刘 辰烁）, lives in China
As a Chinese,although I would be morose if it happen in the future,but I clarity know nothing is impossible,just 10 years ago,lots of Chinese is very pessimism whether China’s GDP overtake Japan’s but the truth tell world that it complished in 2010,I believe India’s potent and hope a lager cooperation between us.
To be frank No
First let me make it clear that India would never gonna beat China in living standards.
China’s GDP is USD 11.4 trillion (2016; IMF). India’s GDP is USD 2.25 trillion (2016; IMF). These economies are in no way comparable. The Chinese economy is more than 5 times larger. China’s GDP per capita stands at USD 8,260 and that of India at USD 1,718. China’s population (1.37 billion) and the population of India (1.34 billion) are comparable — but China is five times richer on a per capita basis.
Based on these figures, India will add USD 129 in economic output on a per capita basis if it grows at a pace of 7.5%. Similarly, if China grows by 6.3%, its output will increase by USD 520 per capita.
Those who say that India is home to the world’s largest economic growth have not even done primary school math on the situation. India actually needs to grow at more than 30% to outpace China in absolute terms per capita.
It helps to play around with the numbers cited above to understand how erroneous expectations have been. If one assumes that India continues to grow at a rate of 7.5%, and China at a rate of 6.3% from here on out, it will take 127 years before India’s per capita growth will actually begin to exceed China’s.