三泰虎

黎明报: 难解的方程--印巴对话

Difficult equation

难解的方程

ANOTHER opportunity to talk has been squandered. In the wake of India’s decision to pull out of foreign minister-level talks at the UNGA, I was struck by the unanimity of views among Pakistani analysts trying to decode India’s move. Virtually all of them linked it to next year’s Indian elections.

又一次对话的机会被浪费了,在印度决定退出原定在联合国大会间隙举行的外长级别会谈后,试图解读印度举动的巴基斯坦分析人士的观点惊人的一致。几乎所有人都将此事与明年的印度大选联系在一起。

In a recent conversation on India-Pakistan issues, I found a group of Pakistani opinion-makers challenging this conventional wisdom. They argued that India is approaching the relationship with Pakistan with a longer time horizon in mind. They pointed out that in Pakistan-India policy fora, they have noticed a shift in the body language of Indian interlocutors. It is far more confident, if not arrogant, and fixated on the country’s upward trajectory. There are regular references to the growing economic and military differential between India and Pakistan and to comparisons with Nepal and Bangladesh when Pakistan is referenced. The mindset doesn’t reflect an India that feels a need to compromise with Pakistan anymore.

在最近一次关于印巴问题的谈话中,我发现一群巴基斯坦舆论制造者对这种传统观点提出了质疑。他们认为,印度正在以更长远的眼光看待与巴基斯坦的关系。并指出,在巴印政策论坛上,他们注意到印度对话者的肢体语言发生了变化,变得自信得多了,而且专注于国家的上升轨迹。他们经常提到印度和巴基斯坦在经济和军事上的差异越来越大,并拿巴基斯坦与尼泊尔和孟加拉国进行比较。这种心态反映出印度觉得再无必要和巴基斯坦妥协。

While I do not subscribe to this presentation of facts, I accept the bottom line about India’s focus on the growing power imbalance in the region. I have previously explained what the longer game may be premised on: if India can continue growing economically and diverting significant resources to defence while forcing Pakistan to remain wedded to a paradigm that prizes hard security over economic well-being, in a decade or two, the power differential will be so large that the only negotiation possible would be on the stronger party’s terms.

虽然我不同意这种说法,但我接受印度关注该地区日益加剧的实力失衡的底线。我之前已经解释过博弈时间的延长可能是基于:印度经济是否能继续增长并将大量资源用于国防,同时迫使巴基斯坦拘泥于这样一种模式,将硬安全置于经济福祉之上。在十年或二十年内,实力差距将变得之大,唯一可能的谈判将按照实力更强一方的条件进行。

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Ties with India must be rejigged.

印巴关系必须重新调整。

They argued that India gains by ignoring Pakistan while blaming Pakistan every time the Kashmir issue goes south. New Delhi agrees to talks every now and then to present itself as the magnanimous big brother but then backtracks by pointing to some incident or the other regarding Kashmir. This is seen as hubris that must be responded to by staying steadfast.

他们认为,每当克什米尔问题恶化时,印度都在指责巴基斯坦,进而从中获益。新德里时不时会同意举行会谈,以展现自己宽宏大量的老大哥形象,但随后又以一些事件或另一些有关克什米尔的事件为借口而变卦了。必须以坚定不移的态度应对这种狂妄自大。

Using their very logic, India’s approach must be construed as one that is designed to force Pakistan to dig in, in turn allowing India to further cement its narrative in the world. When I pointed this out, I was told that India is delusional if it feels it can widen the gap with Pakistan — the conversation quickly shifted to poverty, deprivation, and communal problems in India as reasons why India’s rise is artificial.

按照他们的逻辑,印度的做法必须解读为旨在迫使巴基斯坦掘壕固守,进而让印度进一步巩固其在世界上的地位。当我指出这一点时,我被告知,如果印度觉得自己能扩大与巴基斯坦的差距,那就是一种妄想——谈话很快就转向了印度的贫困和公共问题,以此推断出印度的崛起是虚假的。

Smart policy must be predicated on improving oneself, not on hoping for the opponent’s failure. But in this case, does the view hold up against evidence? There is no denying that India has myriad internal problems that aren’t easily fixable. It’s also true that under the current government there, societal intolerance has come to the fore and an objective analyst cannot but worry about the consequences of the callous way in which New Delhi is handling it. And yet, in country after country, the neo-liberal economic model has proven to have unlimited patience with the plight of the downtrodden as the macroeconomic picture is fixed to register the country on the map of global powerhouses. The model is sustainable.

明智的政策必须以提升自己为前提,而不是寄希望于对手的失败。但在这种情况下,这种观点是否经得起考证?不可否认的是,印度有无数难以解决的的内部问题。在现任政府的领导下,印度社会的不宽容已经显现出来,这也是不争的事实。客观分析人士不得不担心印度政府无情处理此事的后果。然而,事实证明在一个又一个国家,新自由主义经济模式对被压迫者的困境有着无限的耐心,因为宏观经济图景必将可以使一国在全球强国的版图上占有一席之地。这种模式是可持续的。

Pakistan must proactively figure out how it can rejig the deteriorating equation vis-à-vis India. I have been highlighting two aspects of this overhaul.

巴基斯坦必须主动想办法重新调整与印度之间日益恶化的失衡局面。我一直在强调关于重新调整关系的两个方面。

First, Pakistan needs to continue offering India dialogue and be prepared for serious negotiations on all issues regardless of India’s responses. Precisely because India wants to remain on the good side of the global narrative, it will sooner or later have to acquiesce to talking — which would be good for Pakistan-India relations — or its constant refusal will automatically begin to project Pakistan in a more positive light.

首先,无论印度如何回应,巴基斯坦需要继续向印度提供对话机会,并准备就所有问题进行认真谈判。正是因为印度希望继续站在全球视角的有利面,它迟早不得不接受对话,这将有利于印巴关系。否则它不断的拒绝会自动让巴基斯坦变得更加积极。

Second, Pakistan needs to reorient its thinking from geo-security to geo-economics. About the only way to develop a genuine Indian stake in Pakistan’s stability while gaining economically is to position Pakistan as a regional trade and transit hub. CPEC is the perfect start. Adding on east-west connectivity by allowing India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia (ideally in return for its acceptance of CPEC) and championing fast tracking of already-agreed upon energy projects that flow from Central Asia to India will offer Pakistan significant transit fees and local economic benefits, remove India’s opposition to CPEC, and force genuine economic interdependence. The outcome will also align with the US interest in offering Afghanistan greater economic opportunity and incidentally, China’s ultimate goal of doing the same.

其次,巴基斯坦需要将其思维从地缘安全转向地缘经济。要想在巴基斯坦稳定的同时获得经济上的利益,唯一的方法就是将巴基斯坦定位为地区贸易和中转枢纽。中巴经济走廊是一个完美的开始。通过允许印度进入阿富汗和中亚,增加东西连接(理想情况下,以换取其接受中巴经济走廊),为中亚和印度的能源项目提供快速通道将为巴基斯坦带来可观的过境费和经济效益,并消除印度对中巴经济走廊的反,促成真正的经济相互依赖。这一结果也将符合美国的利益,即为阿富汗提供更大的经济机会,顺便提一句,这也是中国的最终目标。

Admittedly, this is easier said than done — and unpopular. But even initiating a serious internal debate on this vision will force a rethink of our own dated take on geo-strategy, begin shifting the global view of Pakistan as the impediment to regional integration in South Asia, and prompt India to question the utility of its policy of seeking to isolate Pakistan globally.

诚然,说起来容易做起来难而且不受欢迎。但即使是对这一愿景发起一场严肃的内部辩论,也将迫使我们重新思考自己对地缘战略的陈旧看法,开始转变将巴基斯坦视为南亚区域一体化之障碍的全球观点,并促使印度质疑其寻求在全球孤立巴基斯坦的政策的效用。

巴基斯坦黎明报读者评论:

来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46248.html  译者:Jessica.Wu

外文:https://www.dawn.com/news/1437762/difficult-equation

Shahbaz Asif Tahir

I totally disagree with your logic. India is not something we Pakistanis cannot do with out.

不敢苟同。我们巴基斯坦人又不是离了印度就没法过了。

 

Zakk

“ in a decade or two, the power differential will be so large that the only negotiation possible would be on the stronger party’s terms.”

In a decade or two?! Seems very unrealistically optimistic. It feels that way NOW.

“10年或20年后,实力差距将变得非常大,唯一可能的谈判将是按照实力更强一方的条件下进行。”10年或20年?!相当不切实际的乐观。

 

Kris

For India, Pakistan is a problem as opposed to an opportunity. Talks become meaningful when both countries see each other as opportunities instead of problems.

对印度来说,巴基斯坦是一个问题,而不是一个机遇。当两国视对方为机遇而不是问题时,对话就变得有意义了。

 

Harun

Our foreign policy and defence policy is always India centric! If we want to have a shift from Geosecurity to Geoeconomics, we must keep Kashmir issue on hold for next few years and have dialogue with India on trade, transport, and tourism etc. We must keep in mind that India will never agree to discuss Kashmir issue in the very beginning as an unresolved issue.

我们的外交政策和国防政策始终以印度为中心!如果想要从地缘安全转向地缘经济,我们必须把克什米尔问题搁置几年,同印度就贸易、交通、旅游等问题进行对话。我们必须牢记,印度决不会同意一开始就把克什米尔问题作为一个尚未解决的问题来讨论。

 

Tehmina.

Wonderfull and sensible aricle. Positive vibes

写得精彩

 

Dost

Well written and Good idea.only economic interdepency can improve relations, diminishing fear of war and prosperity for all

写得好,构想不错。只有经济上的相互促进才能改善关系,消除对战争的恐惧并为双方带来繁荣。

 

Vikram Chopra

I like your style but it is wishful thinking. No govt in Pakistan is going to open up towards India (or atleast in our life time). So let us stop thinking this will happen anytime soon.

我赞同你的想法,但这只是一厢情愿。没有一个巴基斯坦政府会对印度开放(至少在我们有生之年是这样)。别指望这会很快实现。

 

Rakesh Jain

very well explained. India is far ahead now but if pakistan follows the way auther said its Good for the region

阐述的相当不错。印度现在遥遥领先,如果巴基斯坦能按照作者所说的那样做的话,将对该地区有利。

 

AbdulJabbar Puthiyaveetil

Good thinking. To improve relation with India, Pakistan must change it's policy of Kashmir first. Keep Kashmir on back track and negotiate to improve trade and transit facilities to get maximum economical benefit from India.

好想法。为了改善与印度的关系,巴基斯坦必须首先改变其克什米尔政策,让克什米尔回到正轨,通过谈判改善贸易和过境设施,从印度获得最大的经济利益。

 

Sailesh Akkaraju

A very astute analysis by the author and Dawn. In any negotiations, there is something which you have to be able to offer the other party. Pakistan has two things it can put on the table, which it refuses to do so.

Free trade with India ( MFN status to India).

Transit trade with Afghanistan.

At least with these two things, there is the possibility of talks. Otherwise, there is no need to talk with Pakistan now or ever.

非常敏锐的分析。在任何谈判中,你都必须能够为对方提供某些东西。巴基斯坦有两件事情可以摆在桌面上谈,但它拒绝这么做。

  1. 和印度进行自由贸易(给予印度最惠国待遇)。
  2. 和阿富汗进行过境贸易。

有了这两件事,至少有会谈的可能性。否则,无论是现在或将来,都不需要和巴基斯坦谈判。

 

Wellwisher

Absolutely right

完全正确

 

Roger13

Impressed, thoroughly impressed. This is hard thought analysis after understanding constraints and limitations and yet, seeking a way forward. Hope both countries have the audicity to move forward.

相当深刻。这是经过深思熟虑的分析,了解制约和局限,却又在寻找前进的道路。希望两国都有继续向前迈进的决心。

 

GHALIBJEEE

Finally a sensible article on analysis of Indian response. "Smart policy must be predicated on improving oneself, not on hoping for the opponent’s failure." Sums it up

终于来了一篇分析印度回应的明智文章。“明智的政策必须建立在提升自己的基础上,而不是寄希望于对手的失败。”总结的不错。

 

Akil Akhtar

India is doing exactly what Israel is doing to Palestinians...demonise them and find any excuse to pull out of negotiations as they have nothing to gain from the talks other than peace....while they can loose the occupied territoy....

印度的所作所为正是以色列对巴勒斯坦人的所作所为,将对方妖魔化,找借口退出谈判。因为除了和平,他们从对话中得不到任何好处。

 

Subhenau

Not squandered a chance. One party destroyed the chance of talking

不是浪费了一次机会,而是有一方破坏了对话的机会。

 

The TRUTH

Trade with INDIA is the only solution to come out of our all problems. But, don't expect till Modi @ center. We can survive only if Congress in the power.

解决我们所有问题的唯一办法就是和印度进行贸易。但是,不要指望莫迪政府了,只有国大党掌权,我们才能生存。

三泰虎原创译文,禁止转载!:首页 > 巴基斯坦 » 黎明报: 难解的方程--印巴对话

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