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在经济上,越南会成为下一个中国吗

Is Vietnam the next China economy?

在经济上,越南会成为下一个中国吗?

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Quora评论翻译:

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46215.html    译者:Jessica.Wu

Thuong Tran, Born in Vietnam, live in 'Murica; Patriot to both!

There's many similarities but also key differences between Vietnam and China, saying Vietnam is the next China economy has some truth to it, but I don't think so completely.

Similarities:

  •  socialist states which have opened up to free markets ever since reforms
  • Very similar political system
  • Large populations
  • Rapid GDP growth
  • Etc.

Differences:

  • China’s population is around 15 times bigger than Vietnam’s
  • Etc.

越南和中国有很多相似之处,但也有一些关键的不同之处。说越南将成为下一个中国是有点道理,但我不完全赞同。

相似之处:

社会主义国家,自改革以来一直对自由市场开放

相似的政治制度

人口庞大

GDP快速增长

不同之处:中国人口大约是越南的15倍

You may have noticed that I only listed one thing in the differences section, and yes, that was on purpose. The key factor to why Vietnam will not become the next China economy is because Vietnam does not have as much potential as China does based on population. Whilst Vietnam’s population is huge espieically considering the land mass, Vietnam just doesn't have the manpower to grow like China has. In fact, it is often argued that the major reason to why China has been so economically successful, is purely due to its crazy huge billion plus population.

你可能已经注意到,我只列了一条不同之处,这是特意的。越南经济不会成为下一个中国的关键因素是,越南不像中国那样以人口为基础有那么大的潜力。虽然越南人口庞大,尤其是考虑到国土面积,但越南没有像中国那样的人力资源。事实上,人们常说,中国经济如此成功的主要原因,纯粹是因为其庞大的十几亿人口。

I definitely think Vietnam can grow tremendously, but I doubt we will be able to have an economy as big as China’s, however I do believe Vietnam will become possibly a mini-China. In other words, whilst not being as big as China in economic terms, Vietnam could definitely be as successful and prosperous as China considering the size of Vietnam.

我绝对相信越南经济能实现大幅增长,但我怀疑越南经济是否能拥有像中国那样庞大的规模,我确实相信越南可能会成为一个“迷你中国”。换句话说,鉴于越南的国土面积,虽然在经济规模上,越南经济不会达到中国那么大,但越南肯定会像中国一样成功和繁荣。

 

Ngoc Diep Hoang

 Two reasons which are quite easy to recognise:

不可能成为下一个中国。有两个显而易见的原因:

  • Under the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP)’s policies, Vietnam's economic development has gradually depended on China, currently ~90% of Vietnamese manufacturing industry is depending to Chinese's suppliers of raw materials for manufacturing. Unfortunately, China will not be able to keep on supplying raw materials to Vietnam as China is facing more and more shortage of resources for its own needs. At the same time, Vietnam's own resources (mainly agriculture and aquaculture) are gradually reducing due to loss of harvestable lands and waters. Vietnamese manufacturing and exporting foreseeable future is as dreary as one can imagine.

在越共政策下,越南的经济发展逐渐依赖中国,目前越南 90%的制造业依赖中国的原材料供应商。不幸的是,由于自身的需求,中国正面临越来越多的资源短缺,将无法继续向越南提供原材料。与此同时,越南自身的资源(主要是农业和水产养殖)由于可耕种土地和水域的流失而逐渐减少。越南制造业和出口可预见的未来正如人们所能想象的那样令人沮丧。

  • Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) is getting bolder in land-grabs and co ptions, one of the indications is the unstoppable national debts. See Vietnam GDP and National Debt
  • 越共在征地和附败上越来越大胆,其中一个迹象是势不可挡的国债。

Even if the trade-war between USA and China gets worsen and both USA and China will lose quite significantly, Vietnam will still depend on China's supplying sources,

即使现在中美贸易战恶化,中美皆损失重大,越南仍将依赖于中国的原料供应。

 

Quang Nguyen, lives in Vietnam

No and never. China is more than a country, it’s a longest dominant superpower in the whole civil history. However Vietnam definitively has chance to become a developed and advanced country, like Japan now.

永远不可能。中国不仅仅是一个国家,它是整个文明史上统治时间最长的超级大国。然而,越南绝对有机会成为一个发达和先进的国家,就像现在的日本。

The necessity conditions to be an economic superpower are LAND and PEOPLE living in that land. Roma, Mongol, Spain, UK, France, US, China, India had both but now only US, China, India can keep them. Russia, Brazil have land but not many people (maybe that change in the future?). German, Japan had land and people but for very short time during WWII.

成为经济超级大国的必要条件是土地和人口。罗马、蒙古、西班牙、英国、法国、美国、中国和印度都曾满足,但现在只有美国、中国和印度可以保持。俄罗斯和巴西有土地,但人口不多(也许将来会有变化?)在二战期间,德国、日本有土地和人民,但是持续时间很短。

Now countries’ borders are and will be almost fixed so Vietnam can never be able to have more land than it has now, so never we will be an economic superpower. What we need is to become a developed and advanced country and able to defend our current land and sea, kind of S. Korea or Israel. It’s attainable but not easy at all.

现在和将来,各国的边界几乎都是固定的,所以越南永远不可能拥有比现在更多的土地,所以我们永远也不会成为一个经济超级大国。我们需要的是成为一个发达和先进的国家,能够保卫我们目前的陆地和海洋,就像韩国和以色列一样。这是可以实现的,但并不容易。

 

Đại Nguyên Trần, studied at Proffesor of Physics

Vietnam as a member of many major free trade areas in the world, with large area, diverse population, cheap labor and in the center of the three big Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia), offers major advantages.

越南作为世界上许多主要自由贸易区的成员之一,土地广阔,人口多样化,劳动力廉价,地处三大亚洲国家(中国、印度、印尼)的中心,具有重要的优势。

The economy of Vietnam is the 47th largest economy in the world measured by GDP (norminal) and 35th largest in the world measured by GDP(PPP). According to a forecast by PricewaterhouseCoopers, Vietnam may be the fastest-growing of the world's economies, with a potential annual GDP growth rate of about 5.1%, which would make its economy the 19th largest in the world by 2050.

越南是世界第47大经济体(以GDP衡量)和第35大经济体(以购买力平价衡量)。根据普华永道的预测,越南可能是世界上增长最快的经济体,每年的潜在GDP增长率约为5.1%,这将使越南在2050年前成为世界第19大经济体。

各国GDP排名

Being grafeful for what we have today doesn't mean we have to have that forever.

British Empire used to be the number one in the world .

Soviet Union used to be the 2nd largest economy in the word.

China had been helpless, tormented, abused, hammered down during their modern history.

Japan was a backward country before Meiji’s innovation.

Can Vietnam become the next China or USA? Can Vietnam become a superpower?

I dont know for sure. Who knows what will happen in the future.

100 years , 200 years ,…1000 years, 100 000 years. Age after age

Do you dare to assert that Vietnam can’t become a superpower in the remote future?

I think that 200 years ago not too many people would imagine that Japan can become an advanced country .

但今天的一切并不代表未来也是如此。

大英帝国曾经是世界第一。

苏联曾经是世界第二大经济体。

中国在近代史上曾遭受过无助、折磨、虐待和打击。

在明治维新之前,日本是一个落后国家。

越南会成为下一个中国还是美国?越南能成为超级大国吗?

我不确定,谁知道将来会发生什么。100年、200年、1000年还是10万年以后呢?

你敢断言越南在遥远的未来不会成为超级大国吗?

我认为在200年前没有多少人会想到日本会成为一个发达国家。

 

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