三泰虎

印度是下一个中国吗

Is India the next China?

印度是下一个中国吗?

QUORA网站读者评论:

Ray Gordon, studied Economics at Michigan State University

For a refresher, please read these two swers:

作为复习,请读一读以下两个问答:

Ray Gordon's answer to What is the economic future of Pakistan?

雷戈登问答:巴基斯坦的经济前景是什么?

Ray Gordon's answer to Which country will be the next China in terms of economic growth?

雷戈登问答:在经济增长方面,哪个国家将成为下一个中国?

I would advise anyone who doesn’t want a sugarcoated and excessively wishful thinking answer to turn away unless you want a pretty biting answer.

我建议那些不想听甜言蜜语、过于一厢情愿的评论者,除非你能接受尖刻的回答,否则请马上点击右上角的叉叉,别看了。

Unlikely.

这是不太可能的。

The people who claim that India will soon become the next China in terms of growth tend to have a misunderstanding of this figure[1]:

那些宣称印度在增长方面将很快成为下一个中国的人,往往会误解这个数字:

图片1.png

The usual claim is “China had a demographic dividend, so its our turn now”, this is frankly speaking quite naive.

最常见的说法是“中国有人口红利,现在轮到我们了”,坦率地说,这种说法太天真了。

India has a number of embedded structural deficiencies, including a massively underdeveloped industrial basis, high growth rates leading to high NPA’s, an acute lack of the types of capital required for high growth rates and an assortment of go nmental issues means that its unlikely that India will be able to pull it off.

印度有很多自身的结构性缺陷,包括大量不发达的工业基础,很多方面都严重缺乏高增长所需的资本,还存在各式各样的政府问题,这意味着印度将不大可能实现中国第二。

Couple these facts w/ the ongoing issue of automation, AI and less and less willingness by the developed world to absorb massive amounts of exports means that its unlikely that India will be able to experience a China-type growth miracle.

事实表明,在自动化、人工智能以及发达国家越来越不愿意吸收大量出口的情况下,印度不太可能复制中国式的增长奇迹。

Increased protectionism

保护主义抬头

Countries in the developed world don’t want to absorb the same amount of trade deficits (along with the associated job losses) that allowed China, South Korea, Japan and next coming Vietnam to climb the economic ladder, this means India will have to compete with other developing countries in order to gets its exports to the west. As I’ve pointed out, during East Asia’s rise, the words free trade and globalization

发达国家不想维持相同数量的贸易赤字(以及相关的失业),允许中国,韩国,日本和接下来的越南爬上经济阶梯,这意味着印度将与其他发展中国家竞争才能获得出口到西方国家的份额。正如我所指出的,在东亚崛起的过程中,“紫游贸易”和“全球化”这两个词出现了。

India will have to find a way to compete with Vietnam and Indonesia or the Philippines, which is a heck of a lot easier said than done. In fact, both those countries are outperforming India relative to their populations by quite a large margin. So India is not showing much promise as of right now in this field.

印度必须想办法与越南、印尼或菲律宾竞争,说起来容易做起来难。事实上,这两个国家相对于其人口的表现都远远超过了印度。因此,印度目前在这一领域的前景并不乐观。

译文来源:三泰虎      http://www.santaihu.com/46207.html     译者:Joyceliu

Technology

科技

It’s been noted here before, India’s non-price competitiveness is very low, non-price competitiveness essentially means the comparative advantage derived not from an undervalued currency or low wages but other factors.

之前有人提到过,印度的非价格竞争力非常低,非价格竞争力本质上是指相对优势不是来自低估的货币或低工资,而是来自其他因素。

It’s pretty clear that India frankly is not going to be able to dramatically increase non-price competitiveness anytime soon, which is a bad sign particularly with the new advent of automation.

很明显,坦率地说,印度短期内无法大幅提高非价格竞争力,这是一个不好的迹象,尤其是随着自动化的出现。

To see examples of high non-price competitive countries, all we need to do is look at these graphs:

高非价格竞争国家有哪些,我们只需要看看这些图表:

图片2.png

 

图片3.png

Now, if your country has low non-price competitiveness, that means time is running out as automation comes into play and dramatically reduces the need for low wage labor.

现在,如果你的国家非价格竞争力较低,那就意味着随着自动化开始发挥作用,对低工资劳动力的需求将大大减少。

I’m just going to say it, it’s incredibly unlikely India will be able to do this based on past projections and current data. Although Modi is trying to push on this front the said structural deficiencies that India’s economy has is not going to allow much progress in the short-medium term.

我要说的是,根据过去的预测和目前的数据,印度不太可能做到这一点。尽管莫迪正在努力推动这一进程,但印度经济的结构性缺陷在短期内不会有太大改善。

The Changing nature of manufacturing

制造业性质的变化

This is from my other answer:

这是我的另一个答案:

“Manufacturing is changing, it used to be that businesses had to order in bulk now they can order on a case by case business due to the advent of cheaper internet connectivity. This has led to manufacturing being more and more determined not by cheap labor but by the economies of scale and having the required infrastructure to catch onto this new trend.

“制造业正在发生变化,过去企业必须批量订购,现在由于互联网连接成本更低,它们可以逐个下单订购。”这导致制造业逐渐不由廉价劳动力所决定,而是由规模经济决定的,并有必要的基础设施跟上这种新趋势。

What it used to be:

过去是什么样的:

A business needs to buy at least 500 shirts for the spring sale, they need to buy in bulk due to the fear of the supply being short, unfortunately the spring sale doesn’t go as well as planned and only 350 shirts are sold. 150 shirts are now being sold at a loss or must be stored for a cost for the next season.

一个企业需要购买至少500件衬衫用于春季销售,他们需要大量购买,因为担心供应不足,不幸的是春季销售没有按计划进行,只售出了350件衬衫。现在,150件衬衫正在亏本出售,或者必须为下一季的成本而储存起来。

What it now is:

现在的情况是:

A business can now order in units of 25 using the internet and have them shipped based on demand, now the business estimates with a far higher accuracy the amount of shirts that they sell, as a result the business does not have any excess shirts they need to sell at a loss or store at a cost for the next season.

单位的业务现在可以通过互联网采购25个单位,让他们根据需求发货,现在业务可以更准确地预计衬衫的销售量,因此不需要亏本出售多余的衬衫或成为下一季的囤货。

As long as developing countries (w/ the notable exception of China and Vietnam *again) don’t have the ability to catch onto this trend, there is simply less incentive to migrate manufacturing to them.”

只要发展中国家(中国和越南是明显的例外*)没有能力赶上这一趋势,就没有动力将制造业转移到这些国家。

This new trend in manufacturing is making manufacturing less and less determined just by vast amounts of cheap labor but more and more by economies of scale and non-price competitiveness, both of these factors India sorely lacks and is unlikely to be able to build up before automation comes into play.

这个制造业的新趋势是制造业越来越不取决于大量的廉价劳动力,而是越来越多地依赖规模经济和非价格竞争力,印度严重缺乏这两个因素,不太可能在自动化之前发挥作用了。

Government efficiency

政府效率

Although India is much better on Pakistan on this regard, it’s still not something to be proud of. India’s go nment is quite inefficient and has a huge problem with co ption. With this in mind it’s even less likely India will be able to build up the required factors to sustain export-led industrialization.

尽管印度在这方面比巴基斯坦好得多,但仍然不是什么值得骄傲的事情。印度政府效率低下,附败问题严重。考虑到这一点,印度建立以出口为导向的工业化所需因素的可能性就更小了。

Conclusion

结论

While India will likely achieve decent growth rates in the short-mid term, it will not be able to sustain the growth rates required for a growth-miracle, largely due to waning export led industrialization, embedded structural deficiencies and the coming advent of automation

尽管印度有可能在短期内实现可观的增长率,但它将无法维持增长奇迹,这在很大程度上是由于出口主导的工业化减弱、内在的结构性缺陷以及即将到来的自动化。

 

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