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中国高铁有多赚钱

How profitable is China's high-speed rail?

中国高铁有多赚钱?

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Quora评论翻译:

来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46097.html    译者:Jessica.Wu

外文:https://www.quora.com/How-profitable-is-Chinas-high-speed-rail

Prasanna Bhalerao, M.Sc. Physics & Electronics, Fergusson College, Pune

Very few railroads, high speed or low speed, are really profitable by themselves. There could be notable exceptions but that's about it. I am guessing two reasons for this question. One is whether China built high speed rails just to show off and actually is a huge burden on the exchequer. The other is India is about to usher in high speed trains and whether such massive spending is really worth the expense. But even if otherwise, one must understand the difference between building infrastructure in the country and running a business.

无论是高速铁路还是低速铁路,很少有盈利的。可能会有个别例外,仅此而已。中国修建高铁是否只是为了炫耀,实际上造成了巨大负担。印度即将迎来高铁,而如此大规模的投入是否真的值得。但即便不是这样,人们也必须理解在国家建设基础设施与经营企业之间的区别。

Infrastructure spend cannot be compared to a business and checking whether operations are running a profit or not. This is a long term spend and necessary for other businesses to flourish and grow. Let me concentrate only on rail infrastructure:

基础设施投入不能与企业进行比较,也不能以运营是否盈利来衡量。这是一项长期投入,也是其他企业蓬勃发展和壮大所必需的。让我们主要关注下铁路基础设施本身:

ŸRailways can transport hundreds of passengers and tons of freight in a single journey.

ŸRail is faster than all other means except air. But air travel burns huge

ŸRail, especially electrified traction, is much greener.

ŸThe benefits of high speed rail evolve over a number of years.

一趟就可运输数以千计的乘客和数吨货物。

速度比其他方式快,航空旅行消耗巨大

铁路更环保,特别是电气化牵引

高铁经过数年的发展,好处有目共睹

When infrastructure is strong, of attracts me businesses and capital. More businesses mean more employment and hence more tax collection. It brings prosperity. It is the same argument - why build huge multi-lane highways when a simple dual lane Highway will also do.

当基础设施强大时,能吸引企业和资本。更多的企业意味着更多的就业机会,因而带来更多的税收,促进繁荣。同理——简单的双车道高速公路也能凑合用,为什么要修建大型多车道高速公路。

 

Himanshu Singh, studies Electrical Engineering at Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi (2019)

Chinese high-speed railway is not profitable just like most infrastructure projects such as highways. But overall the HSR will benefit China. Let me explain how.

中国高铁不像高速公路等多数基础设施项目那样能盈利。但总的来说,高铁将使中国受益,我来进一步解释一下。

First of all, the government is not a business and government is there to do things which may not be profitable otherwise private companies can do the job. By building infrastructure projects government benefits indirectly.

首先,政府不是企业,政府要做的事情不可都是盈利的,否则,私营公司就能胜任这项工作。通过建设基础设施项目,政府可以间接受益。

Government collect taxes from people and use those taxes to do things which will be beneficial for the people. So, the government will be able to spend more if it collects more taxes and one of the best ways of doing this is by making the people richer rather running a profitable business and making the lives of people better is what a government is supposed to do.

政府向人民征税,用这些税收去做有利于人民的事情。所以,如果政府征收更多的税,政府就有更多经费做这些事情。最好的方式之一是让人民富起来,而不是由政府经营有利可图的生意,让人民生活得更好,这才是是政府应该做的。

When the Chinese government invests 100s of billions of dollars, it is making the country more efficient and improving the lives of people. Due to increased efficiency, the profit of private business increases which result in more taxes and government can finance more such projects or use that money to settle the debt if it no longer sees any need to build new infrastructure. Due to the bullet train, people can live outside of big cities and go to work there daily. If you have a Job in Beijing you can live 200km away from Beijing and still go there in less than an hour daily using a bullet train so HSR helps to decongest cities.

当中国投资几百亿美元时,它正在提高国家的效率,改善人民的生活。由于效率的提高,私营企业的利润增加了,这带来了更多的税收,如果政府不再认为有必要建设新的基础设施,则可以为更多其他项目提供资金,或者用这笔钱来偿还债务。由于高铁,人们可以住在郊区,每天去市区工作。如果你在北京工作,你可以住在离北京200公里远的地方,每天乘坐动车去上班,花费的时间还不到一个小时,所以高铁有助于缓解城市的压力。

 

Walter Chow, Director, Joesdata.com, where deal starts

When people look for profitability of the high speed railway, they tend to ignore the value of time saving of the high speed railway. With a 1.4 billion ridership in 2016 for Chinese highspeed railway, if each high speed train ridership saves a person 5 hours from traditional train, then 1.4 billion ridership saves 7 billion hours for the society. If average labor cost is $5 per hour, then it's a $35 billion saving for the society. PLUS the environmental effort because of only using electricity and the fact that the high speed railway has also been used to deliver packages , the benefits are obvious.

人们在寻求高铁的盈利能力时,往往忽略了高铁节省时间的价值。2016年中国高铁的客运量为14亿人次,如果每趟高铁为每位乘客节省5小时,那么14亿人次就为社会节省了70亿小时。如果平均劳动成本是每小时5美元,那么就能为社会增加350亿美元。再加上仅使用电力的高铁也用来运送包裹,对环保的好处也是显而易见的。

 

Katie Pedro, APAC Regional HR Dirctor at Marvell Semiconductors (2018-present)

As of 2015, there were 6 high speed railways (Shanghai-Beijing, Beijing-Tianjin, Shanghai-Hangzhou, Shanghai-Ningbo, Ningbo-Hangzhou, and Guangzhou-Shenzhen) profitable. The rest were not. The railways in eastern China were profitable, the railways in western China were still making loss. A Tongji University professor said due to big initial investment the railway company needs 16 years to strike balance. 除了京沪还有五条高铁线开始盈利了 集中在东部沿海地区

截至2015年,有6条高铁(上海-北京、京津、上海-杭州、上海-宁波、宁波-杭州、广州-深圳)盈利,其余的则不然。中国东部的铁路是盈利的,西部的铁路仍在亏损。同济大学一位教授表示,由于初期投资巨大,铁路公司需要16年时间才能实现收支平衡。除了京沪线还有五条高铁线开始盈利了,主要集中在东部沿海地区。

Lastly I would like to say that profitability should not be the sole measurement of successfulness of infrastructure projects. The State should own the project which can benefit the public but not suitable or difficult for private sector to make a profit. High speed train network in China clearly benefits the commuters and help economic developments in both rich and poor regions.

最后,我想说的是,盈利能力不应是衡量基础设施项目成功与否的唯一标准。国家拥有的项目可以使公众受益,但不适合或难以使私营部门盈利。中国的高铁网络显然有利于通勤者,并有助于发达地区和贫困地区的经济发展。

 

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