三泰虎

中国新型“反航母”导弹能淘汰或削弱美国海军航母舰队吗

Will China's new "Anti-Carrier" missile be able to make the U.S. Navy carrier fleet obsolete or ineffective?

中国新型“反航母”导弹能淘汰或削弱美国海军的航母舰队吗?

 

QUORA网站读者评论:

 

Thomas Lewandowski, former Sgt. at U.S. Marine Corps

Not really.

While it is a threat (I won’t deny it) it’s an overhyped one by armchair generals who don’t actually understand war.

If the US truly wanted to they could just stay out of range of the missile. This is a bit (very, actually) impractical but it can be done. The range of the DF-21D is 900 miles. The flight range of an F-35 unrefueled is 1,379 miles. The range of an F/A-18 is 2,069 miles. Of course this is not very likely to happen because you want to be able to sortie aircraft more than once a day but it certainly could be done.

The other factor here is the nature of the missile itself. You’re aiming at a moving target. Say the flight time is 10–15 minutes, that aircraft carrier is not going to be in the same spot as it was when you launched. Aim where it’s going to be? Ocean is big, buddy. There’s a lot of directions to move in.

不见得。

尽管这是一种威胁(我不否认),但这是被将军们夸大的纸上谈兵的威胁,他们并不真正了解战争。

如果美国真的想这么做,他们就可以呆在导弹的射程之外。这有点(非常,实际上)不切实际,但可以做到。东风- 21d的射程是900英里。F-35不加油的情况下航程为1379英里。F/A-18的航程是2069英里。当然这种情况不太可能发生,因为你想一天能多次出击飞机,但这是可以做到的。

另一个因素是导弹本身的性质。你瞄准的是一个移动的目标。假设它的飞行时间是10-15分钟,那艘航空母舰绝不会一直停在你发射时的位置。想要瞄准目标的移动方向?大海很大,伙计。有很多方向可以移动。

The US would have a difficult time shooting them down or intercepting them but you can’t fire the missile if it was turned into a pile of scrap metal. The Chinese know this as well and in order to protect them from US strikes they would have to withdraw them further inland into China, not much really, but a reduction in range of 100–200 miles gives the US a lot more wiggle room. If they stationed them on one of those artificial islands they are building they would be even easier to destroy. The second that they launch they would be spotted by NORAD satellites. Now this creates a real threat and problem here. You don’t know what type of warhead is on that missile. This is why the US moved away from the Prompt Global Strike missile because a ballistic missile looks like a ballistic missile. No one except the people that launched it knows what’s on it. The Chinese would be taking a risk here to be sure.

美国很难击落或拦截导弹,但如果导弹变成一堆破铜烂铁,也就无法击中他们了。中国人也知道这一点,为了保护他们免受美国的袭击,他们将不得不把他们进一步撤到中国内陆,其实也没什么,但减少了100-200英里的航程,给了美国更大的回旋余地。如果他们把导弹安置在他们正在建造的人工岛上,它们更容易被摧毁。他们发射的第二颗卫星会被北美防空司令部的卫星发现。这造成了真正的威胁和问题。你不知道导弹上携带的是什么样的弹头。这就是为什么美国放弃了快速的全球打击导弹,因为弹道导弹看起来就是弹道导弹。除了发射它的人,没有人知道它携带了什么弹头。中国人在这里肯定得冒险。

All in all the Chinese should have just invested their money in much cheaper and more reliable supersonic cruise missiles. Just buy hundreds or thousands of them, US fleet approaches, launch hundred of them. Much cheaper, less risk, harder to spot, and you can make a lot of them.

总之,中国人应该把钱投资在更便宜、更可靠的超音速巡航导弹上。买上几百几千枚,等美国舰队接近时发射数百枚。更便宜,风险更小,更难发现,而且你可以拥有很多。

来源:三泰虎     http://www.santaihu.com/46051.html      译者:Joyceliu

 

Anthony Holst, Studied Chinese expansion for State Department

This new threat definitely will not make the Aircraft Carrier obsolete as a weapon of power projection. Just as the Chinese have established 3000 acre stationary Aircraft Carriers in the South China Sea by building airstrips on deserted islands, they are much more venerable than our Carrier Attack Groups.

[During a massive parade commemorating WWII The Chinese show of strength saw the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) unveil some of its newest hardware, including the DF-21D missile, described as a "trump card" by a commentator on Chinese state television.

这种新的威胁绝对不会使航空母舰落伍。正如中国通过在荒岛上修建跑道,在南中国海建造了3000英亩的固定航空母舰一样,它们比我们的航母攻击群更令人肃然起敬。

在纪念二战的盛大阅兵式上,中国人民解放军展示了一些最新的装备,包括DF-21D导弹,中国国家电视台的评论员称之为“王牌”。

Dubbed the 'carrier-killer', the DF-21D goes into orbit like an intercontinental ballistic missile but upon re-entering the atmosphere employs guidance systems that give it the unprecedented ability to attack a moving target, such as a carrier group at sea.

Western defence analysts say it could travel at up to 10 times the speed of sound - faster than anything that could be deployed to intercept it - and estimate it has a range of up to 1000 miles. There's no doubt that it will be a game changer" if it performs as claimed, Jon Grevatt, Asia-Pacific defence analyst at IHS Jane's, told AFP.]

被称为“航母杀手”的DF-21D会像洲际弹道导弹一样进入轨道,但在重新进入大气层时使用的制导系统使其具有前所未有的能力来攻击移动目标,比如海上航母群。

西方防务分析人士说,它的飞行速度可以达到音速的10倍,比任何拦截它的部署速度都要快。他们估计,它的射程可以达到1000英里。IHS Jane's亚太防务分析师Jon Grevatt向法新社表示,毫无疑问,“如果它能像其宣称的那样表现出色,它将改变游戏规则。”

The USN is very concerned about the DF-21D, which is one reason it’s working so hard on ship-borne anti-ballistic missile (ABM) technology. The USN is also working on other countermeasures, including strikes on DF-21 launch sites at the onset of war (potentially delivered from nuclear cruise missile submarines (SSGNs), and electronic warfare. This is why it’s so important to emphasize the importance of the ancillary ISR and communication system that make the DF-21D possible. The US doesn’t need to destroy every launcher, or shoot down every missile in flight. Both of those represent important capabilities, but the key task is to disrupt the system that supports the missile, making it hard for China to identify, target, and strike US carrier groups.]

No one knows what would happen if the Second Artillery launched a salvo of DF-21Ds at a US carrier battle group. Some percentage (depending on reliability) would invariably go astray without US help. US escorts would shoot down some percentage with ship-board ABM systems. Electronic disruption would cause some to plunge harmlessly into the ocean. And finally, some might hit a carrier, or hit carrier escorts. A successful hit will almost certainly result in at least a “mission kill,” disabling a US carrier for the remainder of the conflict.

美国海军非常关注DF-21D,这也是它在舰载反弹道导弹技术上如此努力的原因之一。美国海军还在研究其他对策,包括战争开始时对东风-21发射场的打击(可能由核巡航导弹潜艇(SSGNs)提供)和电子战。这就是为什么强调辅助ISR和通信系统的重要性是如此重要,这使得DF-21D成为可能。美国不需要摧毁所有的发射器,也不需要击落所有的导弹。这两项都代表着重要的能力,但关键任务是破坏支持导弹的系统,使中国难以识别、瞄准和打击美国航母战斗群。

没有人知道如果第二炮兵向美国航母战斗群发射DF- 21D会发生什么。如果没有我们的帮助,一定会有一部分人(取决于可靠性)误入歧途。美国护卫舰将使用舰载反弹道导弹系统降低一定比例。电子干扰会导致一些导弹坠入海洋,不会造成伤害。最后,一些导弹可能会击中航母,或者航母护卫队。几乎可以肯定的是,一次成功的打击至少会造成“使命终结”,在冲突中让美国航母瘫痪。

 

 

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