Will China's new "Anti-Carrier" missile be able to make the U.S. Navy carrier fleet obsolete or ineffective?
Thomas Lewandowski, former Sgt. at U.S. Marine Corps
While it is a threat (I won’t deny it) it’s an overhyped one by armchair generals who don’t actually understand war.
If the US truly wanted to they could just stay out of range of the missile. This is a bit (very, actually) impractical but it can be done. The range of the DF-21D is 900 miles. The flight range of an F-35 unrefueled is 1,379 miles. The range of an F/A-18 is 2,069 miles. Of course this is not very likely to happen because you want to be able to sortie aircraft more than once a day but it certainly could be done.
The other factor here is the nature of the missile itself. You’re aiming at a moving target. Say the flight time is 10–15 minutes, that aircraft carrier is not going to be in the same spot as it was when you launched. Aim where it’s going to be? Ocean is big, buddy. There’s a lot of directions to move in.
The US would have a difficult time shooting them down or intercepting them but you can’t fire the missile if it was turned into a pile of scrap metal. The Chinese know this as well and in order to protect them from US strikes they would have to withdraw them further inland into China, not much really, but a reduction in range of 100–200 miles gives the US a lot more wiggle room. If they stationed them on one of those artificial islands they are building they would be even easier to destroy. The second that they launch they would be spotted by NORAD satellites. Now this creates a real threat and problem here. You don’t know what type of warhead is on that missile. This is why the US moved away from the Prompt Global Strike missile because a ballistic missile looks like a ballistic missile. No one except the people that launched it knows what’s on it. The Chinese would be taking a risk here to be sure.
All in all the Chinese should have just invested their money in much cheaper and more reliable supersonic cruise missiles. Just buy hundreds or thousands of them, US fleet approaches, launch hundred of them. Much cheaper, less risk, harder to spot, and you can make a lot of them.
来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46051.html 译者：Joyceliu
Anthony Holst, Studied Chinese expansion for State Department
This new threat definitely will not make the Aircraft Carrier obsolete as a weapon of power projection. Just as the Chinese have established 3000 acre stationary Aircraft Carriers in the South China Sea by building airstrips on deserted islands, they are much more venerable than our Carrier Attack Groups.
[During a massive parade commemorating WWII The Chinese show of strength saw the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) unveil some of its newest hardware, including the DF-21D missile, described as a "trump card" by a commentator on Chinese state television.
Dubbed the 'carrier-killer', the DF-21D goes into orbit like an intercontinental ballistic missile but upon re-entering the atmosphere employs guidance systems that give it the unprecedented ability to attack a moving target, such as a carrier group at sea.
Western defence analysts say it could travel at up to 10 times the speed of sound - faster than anything that could be deployed to intercept it - and estimate it has a range of up to 1000 miles. There's no doubt that it will be a game changer" if it performs as claimed, Jon Grevatt, Asia-Pacific defence analyst at IHS Jane's, told AFP.]
西方防务分析人士说，它的飞行速度可以达到音速的10倍，比任何拦截它的部署速度都要快。他们估计，它的射程可以达到1000英里。IHS Jane's亚太防务分析师Jon Grevatt向法新社表示，毫无疑问，“如果它能像其宣称的那样表现出色，它将改变游戏规则。”
The USN is very concerned about the DF-21D, which is one reason it’s working so hard on ship-borne anti-ballistic missile (ABM) technology. The USN is also working on other countermeasures, including strikes on DF-21 launch sites at the onset of war (potentially delivered from nuclear cruise missile submarines (SSGNs), and electronic warfare. This is why it’s so important to emphasize the importance of the ancillary ISR and communication system that make the DF-21D possible. The US doesn’t need to destroy every launcher, or shoot down every missile in flight. Both of those represent important capabilities, but the key task is to disrupt the system that supports the missile, making it hard for China to identify, target, and strike US carrier groups.]
No one knows what would happen if the Second Artillery launched a salvo of DF-21Ds at a US carrier battle group. Some percentage (depending on reliability) would invariably go astray without US help. US escorts would shoot down some percentage with ship-board ABM systems. Electronic disruption would cause some to plunge harmlessly into the ocean. And finally, some might hit a carrier, or hit carrier escorts. A successful hit will almost certainly result in at least a “mission kill,” disabling a US carrier for the remainder of the conflict.