三泰虎

印媒: 当中国经济超过美国经济之后会发生什么?

What happens after China surpasses the US economy

当中国经济超过美国之后会发生什么

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By Daniel Moss

The U.S. economy will grow a bit faster than China.

美国经济增速将略快于中国。

Huh? That’s not a typo. It’s one of the projections in a fascinating OECD paper sketching scenarios for the world through 2060. Other developments canvassed: China’s share of global output peaks in the 2030s and then declines while India’s slice keeps rising. Indonesia’s economy catches up to its population.

嗯?这并不是打字错误。这是一篇引人入胜的经合组织论文的预测之一,它对2060年全球经济描绘出一幅图景,同时也对其他发展情况也进行了阐述:中国在全球产出中所占的份额将在2030年代达到顶峰,随后下降,而印度的份额则在不断上升。印尼经济将赶上了其人口增长。

The forecast for the U.S. to outstrip China is not a prediction of any economic miracle in America — just an acknowledgment that China has set itself up for a brutal demographic collapse. Shortly after China overtakes the U.S. economy in size, all the legacies of the one-child policy coalesce as the society seriously ages, stalling out the Middle Kingdom’s expansion. The U.S. will face demographic challenges, too, but nothing like this.

对美国将超越中国的预测,并不是对美国经济奇迹的预测,只是承认中国已经准备好迎接一场残酷的人口结构崩溃。在中国经济规模超过美国后不久,随着中国社会严重老龄化,独生子女政策的所有遗留问题都结合在一起,阻碍中国的发展。美国也将面临人口方面的挑战,但不会出现这种情况。

Between 2030 and 2060, this paper projects, gross domestic product in the U.S. will grow at an average of just under 2 percent a year. Not too different from the past decade. China will expand an average of 1.8 percent a year, a smidge behind the U.S., but a vast change from the low double digits we’ve seen in recent decades.

这篇论文预计,在2030年到2060年之间,美国GDP将以每年略低于2%的速度增长,与过去十年没有太大的不同。中国经济将每年平均增长1.8%,略低于美国但与近几十年来的低两位数增速相比,这是一个巨大的变化。

The most important function of the OECD paper, by Yvan Guillemette and David Turner, is that it obliges us to consider what happens after tomorrow.

经合组织的这篇论文由伊万·吉列米特和大卫·特纳撰写,其最重要的作用是迫使我们考虑明天之后会发生什么。

China’s economy is ascendant and will replace the U.S. as the largest around 2030. We’ve all heard that bandied around, so much that’s not seriously questioned. Then the story tends to stop. We don’t hear much about the next chapter. Kudos to the OECD duo for taking a crack at it.

中国经济正在崛起,并将在2030年左右取代美国成为全球最大经济体。我们都听说过这种说法,很多都没有受到严肃的质疑,关于后面会发生什么我们也没有了解多少。经合组织的两位成员在这方面做出了努力,向他们致敬。

It’s easy to assume that because China has made such great strides, it’s destined to keep rising. There are echoes in the way people once talked about Japan. History may not be kind to this assumption.

很容易认为,由于中国取得了如此大的进步,它注定会继续崛起。这与人们曾经谈论日本的方式也产生了共鸣。但历史可能并不适合这种假设。

Underpinning the OECD paper is the dominant contemporary narrative that Asia is on the upswing: “One consequence of the rising importance of emerging markets in the world economy, notably China and India, but also Indonesia, is that the centre of gravity of world economic activity continues to move from North America toward Asia.”

支撑经合组织论文的是亚洲正在上升的主流观点。亚洲占主导地位的上升:“新兴市场在世界经济中的重要性日益提升,尤其是中国和印度,还有印尼,其结果之一是,世界经济活动的重心继续从北美向亚洲转移。”

America won’t recede into the sunset quietly sipping iced tea. There’s more to economic clout than just raw GDP. We still live in a unipolar financial world with only one currency (the dollar) and one central bank (the Federal Reserve) that really matter.

美国并不会退居幕后,经济影响力不仅仅在于GDP。我们仍然生活在一个单极金融世界,只有一种货币(美元)和一种真正重要的央行(美联储)。

In time, China and India will get those things, if only to support economies of their projected size. Indonesia is a step or two behind them, but is appropriately mentioned in the same breath.

随着时间的推移,中国和印度将得到这些东西,哪怕只是为了支撑其预期规模的经济。虽然印尼落后他们一两步,但也被相提并论了。

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印度经济时报读者评论:

来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45994.html   译者:Jessica.Wu

外文: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/what-happens-after-china-surpasses-the-us-economy/articleshow/65652750.cms

Neelakant

Indian brain is one of the best out there; which is why it comes up with all the crooked plans to beat the system. If Indian brain power is properly channelled, there would be no match for India.

印度人的才智是世界最强之一。所有才能想出所有计划来击败这个体系。如果印度的聪明才智得到恰当的引导,印度将无法匹敌。

 

Utkarsh Ganesh

Not at all true. The lifestyle in China is radically changing for the more advanced. The sectors which were labour intensive are now getting automated faster than we can say "woah". Chinese factories are investing in AI, particularly machine learning when it comes to manufacturing industry robots. Unlike India which remains manual even today, China has passed that stage in early 2000s. At the most, the economic growth will reduce to about 4-5% on a yearly basis.Wannabe-economist journos must understand that economic growth does not mean much beyond a certain critical mass. Chinese economy is massive compared to India''s. A 3-4% increase in economic growth would mean three times the growth that India experiences in absolute value of USD.

完全不正确。中国的生活方式正在发生根本的变化。过去劳动密集型的行业,现如今自动化的速度比我们说“哇”的速度还快。中国工厂正在对人工智能进行投资,尤其是在制造工业机器人方面。与印度至今仍保持人工制作的情况不同,中国在21世纪初已经度过了这一阶段。中国每年的经济增长至多将减少到4-5%。想要成为经济学家的记者们必须明白,经济增长并不意味着要超出一定的临界点。与印度相比,中国经济规模庞大。3-4%的经济增长将意味着3倍于印度的增长,以美元计算的绝对值。

 

Adit Prakash Bhiday

That''s not true at all. Living conditions in China would definitely improve due to declining population since everyone would have more space. How about robots coming in and replacing humans for repetitive jobs .. That can help China keep up its GDP. India needs to curb its population and not look upon it as an "asset".

完全不对。中国的生活条件肯定会因为人口的减少而改善,因为每个人都有更多的空间。有机器人代替人类做重复性的工作可以帮助中国保持其GDP。印度需要控制人口,而不是将其视为“资产”。

 

Kavi Tanna

Actually as of March 26th, we do not live in a single currency world. With the petro yuan now accounting for 15 percent of oil volumes in just a few months the days of U.S. dollar supremacy is now over. Next couple of years will be interesting.

事实上自3月26日起,我们并不是生活在一个单一货币的世界里。随着人民币在短短几个月里占到石油总量的15%,美元霸主地位的日子已经结束。接下来的几年将会很有趣。

 

Salil Shete

big "If" this idiot trump gets voted out.

如果白痴特朗普竞选失败了,就很有可能。

 

Citizen

turd article

垃圾文章

 

Vivek Maheshwari

Daydreaming

做白日梦呢

 

Atilla Hun

Yuan will replace dollar

人民币将取代美元

 

Rahul

its not a typo. its trump effect

这不是打字错误,而是特朗普效应。

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