Why do most economists believe that India will surpass China in the future?




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Gunjan Das, What would you like to know?

I think. They ("most economist") have invented some device that will streamline the flow of black money from swiss bank accounts directly to Indian banks. And unfortunately that device will be marked as "made in China", this might be the relation.



Stephen Marydas, works at The Hindu

Most Economist? I don't think so. Somewhere in the future maybe. Not in near future. India has a very young population compared to many economic giants. That's a good thing. But still a lot to catch up....



Sandeep Uppuluri, lived in India

Maybe in population, but we won't surpass china economically. Not in our life time.



Terin Rajan, Voice of Free India

Nobody believes this nonsense.



Raj Iyre-Chatterjee, Democrazy at its finest!

Predicting thebfuture is a joke. We’d need to change our culture ENORMOUSLY to become a wealthy AND happy nation. Individualism and enterprise NEEDS to rise!



Sushma Gutta

I do not think so. China will remain the number 1 economy. China is a manufacturing giant. And there is very less scope for India to replicate that due to various factors.



Aditi Verma

There are hardly economists who believed this. India requires a lot of improvement to surpass China in the future.




Generally speaking, the argument is based on China’s demographic trap. It’s simply not possible for a baby boom of any size in China to alter the rapid aging — and even numerical decline — of its population; even a massive baby boom would simply slow the process.

Regardless, as the frequency of advancements in and real-world application of automation and machine learning dramatically increases, the rising view is that out-sized populations may become not only less and less relevant to national economic power — they may even become a liability.

If so, the United States may be poised to retain its position at the front of the economic order rather than becoming one of three global leaders. America’s primary challenges remain in the realms of the fiscal and military.





Nitin Bhamvani, Born an Indian

Their main arguments are related to India's more youthful population and the fact that, as a de acy , it has already been established for over 67 years.

Nothing is guaranteed, however, and India still has a mountain to climb before anyone will accept it as the 'real deal'.




Deepak S Fernandes, works at Infosys

My opinion is that predicting the future beyond 15 to 20 years is no better than a random guess.

India may surpass China only in terms of population in the next 20 years.

India is expanding fast economically, but China is not standing still — even if China does stop growing, it still has a tremendous lead. So both in terms of GDP and GDP per capita, India will not surpass China in the next 20 years.

Militarily I would argue they are close to being on par (though that could be Indian chauvanism on my part)

Soft power - China leads in this respect, but India is trying to catch up and may







Amit Sharma, Telling what I know by self or others experinece.

On the heels of China posting its lowest GDP growth rate in almost 25 years, the International Monetary Fund released an update to its World Economic Outlook report predicting that India’s economy will overtake China in terms of its annual growth rate by 2016. The IMF released estimates predict that India’s economy will grow at 6.3 and 6.5 percent respectively over the next two years. This puts India’s projected growth in 2016 ahead of the organization’s estimates for China (which stand at 6.8 and 6.3 percent for 2015 and 2016, respectively), leaving India the fastest growing major emerging economy in the world. The IMF’s projections represent a substantial increase from the actual growth rates of the Indian economy in 2013 and 2014, when the economy grew by 5 and 5.8 percent respectively. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global economic growth at 3.5 and 3.7 percent in 2015 and 2016 respectively.



Mathew Cherian, I watch China as they drive the World Economy

I am not sure why this should be an issue among anyone let alone economists. Ultimate goal of econo.ics is to eradicate all dark forces, which include greed. Competition beyond ones need is greed. Then why should economists of all the people worry about India competing with China in this regard. Confusian China and Vedic India the yester world has more wisdom than just think of wasting their valuable times downgrading coherence. Unless J.M. Keynes was wrong in fixing the final state of every economic endeavour nations undertake as their ethical route to exist.



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