Which economy would be largely influenced if China really rises in the future?




来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45852.html    译者:Jessica.Wu


Randy McDonald, Student of history and empires

The entire world--high-income societies, low and middle income societies, neighbours, places on the other side of the planet--would be influenced strongly if China became a high-income society. They would likely experience some relative decline--the five hundred million people of the European Union would be outnumbered more than two-to-one by Chinese--but I do not think they would be likely to experience absolute decline.

Of all China's neighbours, I think Southeast Asia would be the world region most likely to be strongly influenced by China. Just next door, often culturally familiar, and less economically developed, Southeast Asia could easily be pulled along by a rich China.




Paul Denlinger, Have lived in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong; fluent in Mandarin (written, spoken)

There are other trends at work which are more important than China's rise, and their cumulative effect will be huge.

They are:

ŸThe rise of the sharing economy, such as Uber, AirBnB, etc.

ŸCommunications costs effectively falling to zero for phone and long-distance services;

ŸMore jobs getting cannibalized by automation, and soon, AI;

ŸAutomation of the manufacturing process, so that less jobs are needed in manufacturing;

If you look closely at where China's rise has been, you will discover that it is mostly in traditional manufacturing. All of these sectors will soon be changed by the changes outlined above, and China will also be drastically affected.

What we are seeing now is a drastic slowdown in demand, which consumer growth was completely dependent on. This is also affecting China, which is why we are seeing a slowdown in Chinese growth.

There are fewer goods which are attractive to buy for consumers, when people can rent them for the short-term just as easily. Why own when you can just rent?











Michael Jun, studied at University of California, Berkeley

It is like gravity. Closer the country is to China, greater the influence. To Canada and Mexico, the U.S. influence is greater than that of China. (Canada is #1 trade partner to the U.S.) To Mongolia and Vietnam, Chinese influence is greater. To a country closer to China, the Chinese influence will nearly supersede the American or European influences.



Ashutosh Vasisht, Learner. Optimist. Indian. Avid reader. ASOIF. Movie freak. Foodie.

China is set to become the world’s largest economy. The only debates are by what date and by what measure?


According to the IMF, Asian economies will represent at least 40% of global economic output by 2015, when adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP - which is just a way of saying that a McDonald’s hamburger should be similar cost everywhere and if it is not, we need to make an allowance in exchange rates to calculate the true relative value of a nation’s economy).


Many economists expect that on PPP calculations, China will overtake the United States long before 2020, probably by 2015-17. All global economists agree it is only a matter of time, by whatever measure. Leaders in developed nations should be ready for a major psychological, economic, cultural and political shift, which will impact the rest of this century.


So it is inevitable that China will be the super power. So, which ones would be largely affected by it?


  1. United States of America, why?

China will never replace US as a single global superpower. Both the countries being the super power will have a large control over UN and others. But, USA will no longer enjoy the privileges of being the only super power in the world.

China was the saviour to USA when the economic crisis happened earlier. Eventually, USA owes $1.6 trillion to China. This gives China some advantage over USA (including the excessive population/market of China).



  1. India

China and India are the best to provide cheap labour which large companies of the West harness well. Since, China will be super power, India is most likely to be hit economically since, it will give lesser advantage to India to hold a strong economic structure.

China has provided a non competitive market to its manufacturers (Every MNC has a Chinese alternative in China, Baidu for Google, Weibo for Twitter etc) so that it grows economically well and help the start ups grow without any competition. But, unlike China, India has a fiscal deficit and cannot sustain without liberalisation.



  1. Brazil

Economists consider three nations to grow economically rapidly. One is China, then India and Brazil.

These are the favourite spots of multi nationals to find good cheap labour.

Brazil will too be hit because its a part of BRICS. Wherein, China is a super power unlike now and Russia and India are too economically more stable than Brazil. Hence, these three countries are likely to have a stronger hold over BRICS and UN. Including a new Bank which BRICS want to create to help these 5 nations.





All these are under my opinion. I will be happy to hear any suggestion/correction.



Mehul Kamdar, Associate

I am not sure that the rise of one economy automatically equals the decline of another. Yes, that was the case under colonialism, and, earlier during the feudal era. It does not have to be the case anymore. China is a growing and strengthening economy, and countries that trade with it, will do well. Germany, for example, owes a huge proportion of its recent wealth to selling advanced machinery to Chinese manufacturers, and it is the economic engine of Europe.


When companies compete, those with better products and marketing strategies will win. I'd like to see trade like I watch the Olympics or the World Cup - someone wins, and they rightly deserve the credit in the end, but there are many good matches and performances leading to the final victory, and they are important too.


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