What is the future of China’s economy?




来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45830.html    译者:Jessica.Wu


David Thompson, Hunter at White Bear Hunter (2017-present)

Chinese economy much depend on Chinese people, and Chinese go nment, if Chinese go nment will keep doing what they're doing and they will stay being immune to foreign co ption.


China will keep growing just as it does, and foreign countries like the US and England will keep wondering on how to stop the Chinese and there will be not much they can do as Chinese have learned their lesson and the won't trust an English crap anymore.


We will most probably see in our life time announcement of China becoming worlds first economy.


I dont think American go nment will accept it and i believe we will have war which will affect all of us.



Megan Warson, lived in China

Nowadays, economy in China is developing . But there are also many problems. In the future, I think economy will become an ecological economy.



Selim Inges, China nerd

The state-run companies and companies within China have massive debt that they cannot repay. The state-owned companies are famous for being extremely inefficient and basically funded by the Chinese go nment to stay in business.



James Brown

World domination probably



John Chiu, Professional Accountant residing in Hong Kong

Very positive and in future will undoubtedly surpass that of the USA. The population is just so big that it the consumption power is still upward.



Jonathan Buttall, former Retired Professional in Behavioral Health Field at Private Sector; Public Sector.

China will continue to grow it’s economy and become the world’s largest, which has long been expected. It already has one of the fastest growing economies and has the worlds most trading partners.

With the current political chaos in the US, the US’s current isolation from all it’s former de ratic allies and trade wars with it’s trading partners, China sees an opportunity to increase it’s political and economic influence.




Randall Burns, Graduate Certificate Software Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University (2006)

China has played a phenomenal game of “catch up” with the west. I think that can easily continue until 2030 or so.

However, I question whether China

  1.  can really deal with its co ption and environmental problems
  2.  can move beyond playing catch up and become a truly innovative economy






Bill McDonald, Marketing

Increasing prosperity with occasional slumps to lower growth rates, sometimes punctuated by a brief period of crisis. Those crisis may have external origin (like oil supply shocks), internal origin (like real estate speculation) or more importantly, origin from both internal and external factors, since China is now a large enough part of the world economy that it affects the world, and this feeds back into China....which then affects the world again.


The growth rate may not be as high as the 8% and higher growth during the 1990s, but is likely to stay above 4 -5% for many years. A 5% growth rate will still double the GDP in 15 years, less than a generation.

在上世纪90年代,中国的经济增长率可能不到8%,在很长一段时间内都保持在4% -5%以上。在不到一代人的时间里,5%的增长率仍将使GDP在15年内翻一番。

This will bring living standards up to developed world standards for the majority of China's citizens less the 25 years from now.


(Because of the complexities and uncertainty of most GDP calculations, I am not going to try to be more exact than that.)


Because China's track record of making good decisions to promote economic growth, it is reasonable to be confident about a long term prediction for China.


We could contrast this with nations like Argentina, where unstable polices have limited growth.


The prosperity will tend to diffuse through China, reaching rural areas and inland areas to various degrees. It is also diffusing outward from China, increasing industrial development in a number of nations, and having a large impact in Africa.



Daniel Cohort, Big Data Director in China

  1. The automation process of Chinese manufacturing sector just took off. In 2014, China is the largest consumer of industrial robots. But the per capita statistics indicate China is still decades behind Korea and Japan. There is large room for continual growth. In the next decade, we'll see China rapidly and steadily climbing up the value chain in global manufacturing.


  1. The internet business is booming in China. More and more grass-roots will have opportunities to succeed. The internet models will be major game changers in Chinese economy in the next ten years.


  1. High-end manufacturing companies like DJI and COMAC will have great impact on Chinese economy like the high-speed rails.


  1. The liberalization of Chinese financial market will vitalize the Chinese economy. China will not only be renowned for world factory but also the global financial hub.



Godfree Roberts, Ed.D. Education & Geopolitics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst (1973)

What is the future of China's economy? The world’s leading macroeconomist, Robert Fogel, asked that question in 2010 and answered:


*China’s estimated economy by the year 2040. Be warned.




In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040.

2010年1月/ 2月,罗伯特福格尔:


Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China's share of global GDP -- 40 percent -- will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent) 30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like:


Fogel’s factors contributings to China's growth:

  1. Massive investment in education.
  2. The hugh rural population contribute to growth in 2 ways: urbanization and local rural growth..
  3. Current statistics under-report the size of China's economy.
  4. Competent go nment.
  5. Rapidly expanding consumer spending.








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