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中国经济的未来会如何?

What is the future of China’s economy?

中国经济的未来会如何?

 

Quora评论翻译:

来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45830.html    译者:Jessica.Wu

外文:https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-Chinas-economy

David Thompson, Hunter at White Bear Hunter (2017-present)

Chinese economy much depend on Chinese people, and Chinese go nment, if Chinese go nment will keep doing what they're doing and they will stay being immune to foreign co ption.

中国经济在很大程度上取决于中国人民和中国,如果中国继续保持目前的做法,他们将不会受到外国“腐蚀”的影响。。

China will keep growing just as it does, and foreign countries like the US and England will keep wondering on how to stop the Chinese and there will be not much they can do as Chinese have learned their lesson and the won't trust an English crap anymore.

中国将会像现在一样保持增长,就像美国和英国将会继续思考如何阻止中国人一样,不过他们也做不了什么,因为中国人已经吸取了教训,他们不会再相信英国人了。

We will most probably see in our life time announcement of China becoming worlds first economy.

我们很可能会在有生之年看到中国成为世界第一大经济体。

I dont think American go nment will accept it and i believe we will have war which will affect all of us.

我不认为美国政府能接受这一点,可能会导致战争,这将影响到我们所有人。

 

Megan Warson, lived in China

Nowadays, economy in China is developing . But there are also many problems. In the future, I think economy will become an ecological economy.

如今,中国经济正在发展,但也存在很多问题。我认为未来经济将成为一种生态经济。

 

Selim Inges, China nerd

The state-run companies and companies within China have massive debt that they cannot repay. The state-owned companies are famous for being extremely inefficient and basically funded by the Chinese go nment to stay in business.

中国的国有企业和其他企业都有大量的债务,他们无法偿还。国有企业以效率极低而著称,基本上是由政府出资经营的。

 

James Brown

World domination probably

可能会控制全球经济。

 

John Chiu, Professional Accountant residing in Hong Kong

Very positive and in future will undoubtedly surpass that of the USA. The population is just so big that it the consumption power is still upward.

在未来,中国经济无疑会超过美国。人口如此庞大,因而消费能力会持续上升。

 

Jonathan Buttall, former Retired Professional in Behavioral Health Field at Private Sector; Public Sector.

China will continue to grow it’s economy and become the world’s largest, which has long been expected. It already has one of the fastest growing economies and has the worlds most trading partners.

With the current political chaos in the US, the US’s current isolation from all it’s former democratic allies and trade wars with it’s trading partners, China sees an opportunity to increase it’s political and economic influence.

中国经济将继续增长,进而成为世界上最大的经济体,这是人们长期以来的预期。中国已经是增长最快的经济体之一,在全球拥有最多的贸易伙伴。

鉴于美国目前的政治混乱、孤立于所有前皿煮盟友以及和贸易伙伴的贸易战,中国看到了增加其政治和经济影响力的机会。

 

Randall Burns, Graduate Certificate Software Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University (2006)

China has played a phenomenal game of “catch up” with the west. I think that can easily continue until 2030 or so.

However, I question whether China

  1.  can really deal with its co ption and environmental problems
  2.  can move beyond playing catch up and become a truly innovative economy

中国赶超西方这方面表现出色,我认为这能轻松持续到2030年左右。

然而,我怀疑中国是否:

可以真正解决附败和环境问题

能够成为一个真正的创新型经济体

 

Bill McDonald, Marketing

Increasing prosperity with occasional slumps to lower growth rates, sometimes punctuated by a brief period of crisis. Those crisis may have external origin (like oil supply shocks), internal origin (like real estate speculation) or more importantly, origin from both internal and external factors, since China is now a large enough part of the world economy that it affects the world, and this feeds back into China....which then affects the world again.

经济日益繁荣,偶尔会出现经济衰退,导致增长率下降,有时还会出现短暂的危机。这些危机可能是由外部因素(如石油供应冲击),内部因素(如房地产投机)或者因外因素一起导致,因为中国现在是世界经济的重大组成部分,彼此相互影响。

The growth rate may not be as high as the 8% and higher growth during the 1990s, but is likely to stay above 4 -5% for many years. A 5% growth rate will still double the GDP in 15 years, less than a generation.

在上世纪90年代,中国的经济增长率可能不到8%,在很长一段时间内都保持在4% -5%以上。在不到一代人的时间里,5%的增长率仍将使GDP在15年内翻一番。

This will bring living standards up to developed world standards for the majority of China's citizens less the 25 years from now.

这将使中国大部分公民的生活水平在未来25年内达到发达国家的水平。

(Because of the complexities and uncertainty of most GDP calculations, I am not going to try to be more exact than that.)

(由于大多数GDP计算的复杂性和不确定性,我不打算把它说得更精确。)

Because China's track record of making good decisions to promote economic growth, it is reasonable to be confident about a long term prediction for China.

由于中国在促进经济增长方面有良好的决策记录,因此有理由对中国的长期预测充满信心。

We could contrast this with nations like Argentina, where unstable polices have limited growth.

我们可以将其与阿根廷等国进行对比,阿根廷不稳定的政策使其增长有限。

The prosperity will tend to diffuse through China, reaching rural areas and inland areas to various degrees. It is also diffusing outward from China, increasing industrial development in a number of nations, and having a large impact in Africa.

这种繁荣将在中国各地扩散,在不同程度上延伸到农村和内陆地区。它也从中国向外扩散,促进了一些国家的工业发展,并对非洲产生了重大影响。

 

Daniel Cohort, Big Data Director in China

  1. The automation process of Chinese manufacturing sector just took off. In 2014, China is the largest consumer of industrial robots. But the per capita statistics indicate China is still decades behind Korea and Japan. There is large room for continual growth. In the next decade, we'll see China rapidly and steadily climbing up the value chain in global manufacturing.

中国制造业的自动化进程刚刚起步。2014年,中国是世界上最大的工业机器人消费国。但人均数据显示,中国仍落后韩国和日本几十年,还有很大的持续增长的空间。在接下来的十年里,我们将看到中国在全球制造业的价值链中快速而稳定地攀升。

  1. The internet business is booming in China. More and more grass-roots will have opportunities to succeed. The internet models will be major game changers in Chinese economy in the next ten years.

中国的互联网业务正在蓬勃发展。越来越多的草根阶层将有机会获得成功。未来10年,互联网模式将成为中国经济的重大变革者。

  1. High-end manufacturing companies like DJI and COMAC will have great impact on Chinese economy like the high-speed rails.

大疆、中国商飞等高端制造企业将中国经济产生重大影响,比如对高铁。

  1. The liberalization of Chinese financial market will vitalize the Chinese economy. China will not only be renowned for world factory but also the global financial hub.

中国金融市场的自由化将使中国经济充满活力。中国不仅将以世界工厂而闻名,而且将成为全球金融中心。

 

Godfree Roberts, Ed.D. Education & Geopolitics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst (1973)

What is the future of China's economy? The world’s leading macroeconomist, Robert Fogel, asked that question in 2010 and answered:

$123,000,000,000,000*

*China’s estimated economy by the year 2040. Be warned.

世界著名的宏观经济学家罗伯特福格尔在2010年提出了这个问题,并回答说:

到2040年,中国的经济总量预计将达到123万亿美元。

BY ROBERT FOGEL | JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2010

In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040.

2010年1月/ 2月,罗伯特福格尔:

到2040年,中国经济总量将达到123万亿美元,几乎是2000年全球经济产出的三倍。中国的人均收入将达到8.5万美元,预测是欧盟的两倍多,也远高于印度和日本。换句话说,当中国从2000年的穷国变成2040年的超级富国时,中国大城市居民的平均生活水平将是法国人的两倍。

Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China's share of global GDP -- 40 percent -- will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent) 30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like:

尽管中国的人均财富不会超过美国,但根据我的预测,中国占全球GDP的比重(40%)将在30年后超过美国(14%)和欧盟(5%)。这就是经济霸权的表现。

Fogel’s factors contributings to China's growth:

  1. Massive investment in education.
  2. The hugh rural population contribute to growth in 2 ways: urbanization and local rural growth..
  3. Current statistics under-report the size of China's economy.
  4. Competent go nment.
  5. Rapidly expanding consumer spending.

福格尔认为中国经济增长的因素包括:

1.大规模的教育投资;

2.农村人口对经济增长的贡献主要体现在两个方面:城市化和当地农村经济的增长;

3.目前的统计数据低估了中国经济的规模;

4.称职的政府;

5.迅速增长的消费支出

 

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