Will India's economy catch up to China's




Ray Comeau, A decade in China, interest in geopolitics


Maybe. It will depend on (1) how long can India’s GDP rate of growth exceed China’s rate of growth and (2) the absence of a catastrophe to either India or China.

A number of organizations has projected national GDPs up to 2050. Here are two - by IMF and The Economist. This is a long time frame for predicting. So what they predict for 34 years from now based on their analysis is China will economically still be larger then India whether measured by PPP or Market Exchange Rate




Ming Lou, Author Seeking Answers 12th edition

Long shot, man.

With the uncontrollable population growth chasing behind their economy, they can never accumulate the capital to industrialise their economy.

And due to Indian economy doesn’t have an integrated industrial system, it have to import the much needed manufactured products by selling their resources and food to get the money for these imports. That pushes the resources and necessities domestic market price up and further drain the domestic buying capacity that restricts its domestic market for its own manufactured products.

And add on this bad situation, the human resources is not suitable for industrialisation purpose --- lack of stamina, discipline and strictness of accuracy.

It is a vicious cycle, a runaway positive feedback loop that lead to disaster and worse disaster.

In short, India’s bad real value – population ratio combined with the badly regulated semi-anarchic capitalist system, etc. It is a big pile of mess, a classic recipe for economic disaster that only God himself can sort it out.








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Given the lack of investment in health, education and perpetuation of social backwardness in casteism and a new hardline government promoting ethnic and religious tensions…I would say no.

On the other hand, China itself is playing smoke and mirrors, mostly bribing the population of its new middle classes with money and promises of advancement. When that bribe runs out, who knows what will happen





When Indian Modi can no longer manipluate the GDP data, and Indian people start the freedom of speech to tell truth, instead of lying, Indian GDP will slip and GDP/head will remain on the bottom of the world for next 100 years.



Muhammad Iqbal, MBA Military History and Wars , Pakistan (2003)

Never as the residents of sub-continent are born with a mind set of never good captains lacking team spirit.



Gurneet Singh, PGP from IIM Kozhikode Batch 2018-20

In the first decade of this century, India’s growth reached a take off stage that prompted many people to ask when India would catch up with its neighbour. It was also thought that democratic India may even overtake China.


Well, the most important point to drive home is:

In India’s noisy political democracy, the problems are compounded by the existence of multiple political parties with no coherent approach to development.



Whereas China has outrun India in every area of economic endeavour in the last 35 years, except in computer software industry and agricultural research.


India will most probably overtake China as the most populous country in the world in 2030. China is better placed structurally than India for a good economic performance, but it is most likely to be much lower than its recent average performance of about 10 per cent a year. How much lower it would be would depend on its ability to maintain current labour productivity levels and the benefits likely to flow from its proposed trans-continental rail system and other transport-related activities. Troubles in China’s financial markets, a declining young and increasing older population as a proportion of the working age population, increasing wages in general and export industries in particular, costs associated with cleaning up serious environmental pollution, increasing competition from other countries in export industries using low-skill and semi-skill labour, lower savings rate and a possibly lower investment rate will have a negative effect on its growth.


India has an excellent chance of catching up with China if it can increase its labour force participation rate (particularly women), increase the average level of education, improve the quality of its labour force through special training programmes, reduce impediments to let foreign capital participate in its development process, design policies to cultivate a culture of entrepreneurship, and reduce corruption at all levels.


The problem in India has always been implementation. In a noisy political democracy, problems are compounded by the existence of multiple political parties with no coherent approach to development.


Prime Minister Modi, with his majority in Parliament, has an opportunity to reignite the engines of economic growth. Even if the Indian economy were to grow at 10 per cent a year, its GDP at 2011 PPP$ will reach only about 26 trillion in 2030; China can easily reach this by 2022. I don’t see India catching up with China in the next 25 years unless, of course, there is a massive failure of sorts in China.


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