Can India Surpass China's economy by 2050?




来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45748.html  译者:天一生水

Sthitapragnya Deshpande

Can it?


Yes - if it adopts strategies similar to what China did in the 1980s.


Will it?

If it continues at the current rate, no.



India is nowhere close to what China is (as of 2017), or was even in the 1990s! I had first visited China in the mid 90s, and visited India recently (I have been visiting India every year). We are still not there - even in our big cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore. Only small pockets of these cities develop, but the major parts of these cities have become worse than before (and they were already bad!)

印度远不及中国(截至2017年),甚至只是中国在20世纪90年代的水平!我是在90年代中期首次访问中国,最近访问了印度(我每年都访问印度)。我们仍然不到那个水平 - 即使是我们的大城市,如孟买,德里和班加罗尔。这些城市只有一些小发展,但这些城市的主要部分已经变得比以前更糟(他们已经很糟糕!)

And no - simply sending a few cheap satellites does not bring development. We still do not have toilets, tapped clean drinking water, and 24 hrs electricity in most towns and cities of our country! (For Indians unaware of this reality - do see a few of Ravish's reports in NDTV - Bharat ki sachchai aapko saaf nazar aayegi / yaad aayegi)

只是发送一些廉价的卫星不会带来发展。在我们国家的大多数城镇,我们仍然没有厕所,干净的自来水和24小时的电力! (对于没有意识到这一现实的印度人 – 可以在NDTV中看到一些Ravish的报道 - Bharat ki sachchai aapko saaf nazar aayegi / yaad aayegi)

India has all the potential and resources to get there, it has all the people to get there, unfortunately it has all the wrong people in governance - and the latter will prevent the former two from achieving anything.

印度拥有实现这一目标的所有潜力和资源,它的人民希望达到这样的目标,不幸的是,它的政府里都是些不同路的人- 后者将阻止前两者实现任何目标。

There is only one big difference between China and India.


China has a good populace with First class governance that enables its people to achieve their full potential.


India has a good populace with Third class governance which ensure that its people never reach their full potential.


Everything else is just cosmetic.


(Note: I have paraphrased Arvind Kejriwal in the 3rd class analogy)



Vardhaman Sakhlecha

Answered Jan 16, 2017

No. Economic growth is usually measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product. (GDP)

不会。经济增长通常以国内生产总值来衡量。 (国内生产总值)

India’s nominal GDP is about $2.3 Trillion (2016) and China’s nominal GDP is about $11.4 Trillion (2016).


There are varying forecast about India and China’s growth rate. So lets assume the best case scenario for India at 7% p.a. and an moderate growth scenario for China at 4%


Assuming India grows at 7% p.a. till 2050, its GDP would at best touch $23 Trillion. China, if it grows at 4% p.a., would be able to touch a GDP $43 Trillion by 2050.


So, no India will not surpass Chinese economy by 2050 unless something extraordinary takes place more than ordinary number of times in the next few decades.


China was able to take advantage of globalization when manufacturing shifted from west to the east but this advantage doesn’t remain with the rise of protectionism. India would have to work at finding alternate growth models.



Ray Comeau


I have never seen a GDP forecast for 2050 where India exceeds China in nominal terms.


According to World Bank 2015 the ration was 11:2 (or 18%). Forecasters say the ratio should improve over time in 2020 to 16.5:3.3 (or 20%) to 2050 78:22 (or 28%).


If China were to stop growing today (0% growth), forecaster predict it would still take two decades to 2039 for India to catch up to China.


Forecasters are never accurate so far out in the future. So India could do better or worse; it all depends on India and its ability to grow consistently at a high rate.


IMO - having a goal to surpass China’s economy (or anyone else) is the wrong goal. India has to be India. It would be better to know what is important and unique about India and to focus on making the best India possible.

国际货币组织 - 超越中国经济(或任何其他国家)是错误的目标。印度必须是印度。最好知道什么是重要的和印度的独特多处,并专注于把印度最好的地方尽可能扩大。


Rick Li

India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, growing at about 7.6% in 2015 (Here), while economic growth in China is slowing down and growing at 6.9% (Here).


Assuming that India grows steadily at 7.6%, it will take about 23 years for its $2.1 trillion in 2015 to reach $11.3 trillion, exceeding slightly the 2015 GDP of China of $11 trillion (Here). Rick Li's answer to Will India ever become the largest economy in the world?

假设印度稳步增长7.6%,2015年是2.1万亿美元,需要23年才能达到11.3万亿美元,略高于中国2015年GDP 11亿美元的(点这里)。 Rick Li对印度曾经是世界最大的经济体的回答。

Anyway, according to the PwC report ‘The World in 2050’, while the Indian economy is estimated to exceed the American economy by 2050, it will be the second biggest economy behind China. I’ve also answered another question about China - Rick Li's answer to Is China very poor? Refer to the chart below.

无论如何,根据普华永道的报告“2050年的世界”,虽然印度经济估计到2050年将超过美国经济,它将成为仅次于中国的第二大经济体。我还回答了另一个关于中国的问题 - Rick Li回答:『中国很穷吗?』请参阅下表。




main problem in india is overpopulation & inefficient goverment sector.


nobody talks about it.many jobs have been created over last 50 years.


but population explosion has neutralised all efforts.remember population explosion is worse than nuclear explosion. government should implement one child policy. jobs andsalary will continue to decrease due to oversupply of labour & automation.


removing permanent job cultule from goverment sector will increase growth

rate by 4-5%.


china & usa are almost thrice in size compared to india & their population is almost 130 & 30 crores respectively.


for every post there are almost 500 candidates & therefore indians are paid minimum salary.每个告示都会有500个申请人,因此印度人获得最低的报酬。

you can't negotiate as others are willing to work for anything. best option is to settle abroad. i am also trying for same.


Population is biggest factor in almost all problems like poverty,inflation etc.

till the time population keeps on increasing, employers can easily afford to

treat us like objects .it's our mistake.salary will keep on decreasing.

try for foreign countries & settle there before they close their doors.





Noel Leong

Answered Jan 16, 2017 · Author has 1k answers and 311k answer views

As it is, it’s already difficult for India to catch-up. If China Belt-Road expansion is successful and bears fruit sooner than expected, it will be almost impossible for India to surpass China.



Chandra Bindu

Answered Jan 16, 2017 · Author has 242 answers and 350.4k answer views

year 2050 is way too far . no one can accurately predict how the economic order will be in year 2050.

With child like logic and very simplistic view, India GDP growth is not enough to surpass china in next 10 years.




Afiq Aziz

Answered Jan 16, 2017 · Author has 445 answers and 243.5k answer views

I dont think so. I think the cheap labor model is really going to end. With the recent Brexit, Trump election, and the upcoming French election with a possibility of Marine Le Pen winning the election. It seems like to me that the world is moving towards market protectionism. If India wants their economy to grow. It has to change its policies. I would suggest for them to drop the whole “Made in India” model, and to focus more towards domestic demand economy. Of course, other reform such as corruption, infrastructure spending, etc has to go through as well.


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