三泰虎

大量证据表明,特朗普的贸易斗争将使支持他的选民遭受最严重的伤害

There's a mountain of evidence that Trump's trade fights will be most harmful to the people who voted for him

大量证据表明,特朗普的贸易斗争将使支持他的选民遭受最严重的伤害

In President Donald Trump's trade war, the states he won during the election are the most defenseless.

在唐纳德•特朗普总统引发的贸易战中,大选中助他获胜的州是最不堪一击的。

That's according to economists at Citi, who last week published a research note on which US states are most exposed to a trade war and what this means for the midterm elections.

这是花旗经济学家的看法。上周,他们发表了一份研究报告,指出了美国哪些洲最易收到贸易战影响,以及这对中期选举意味着什么。

1f6e5b3c3c62433202b5eac286503cd1.jpg

"With several economies now imposing retaliatory trade actions in the wake of the Trump administration’s trade tariffs, the stakes have risen for, and the evidence more compelling against, 'red' states by several measures," Citi's Dana Peterson said in the note.

花旗集团的达纳•彼得森在报告中表示:“随着一些经济体在特朗普政府征收贸易关税后采取报复性贸易措施,风险越来越大,而且有证据显示,有一些措施对共和党红色选区的影响更大。”

The tariffs — taxes on imports to the US — were sold as a way to level the playing field between US producers and their foreign competition, and grow industry even more. But China, the European Union, Canada, India, and Mexico are set to retaliate.

关税——对美国进口商品征收的关税——是为了让美国生产商与外国竞争对手之间能够进行公平竞争,进一步促进工业的发展。但中国、欧盟、加拿大、印度和墨西哥都将采取报复行动。

On Friday, the US and China imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other's goods, with China's Ministry of Commerce saying in a statement that Trump launched "the largest trade war in economic history."

上周五,美国和中国对彼此价值340亿美元的商品征收了关税。中国商务部在一份声明中表示,特朗普发动了“经济史上规模最大的贸易战”。

Red states, so-called because they're historically Republican or voted for Trump in 2016, stand to lose more because they benefit the most from trade with other countries, Citi's Peterson said. Imports and exports to red states totaled $2.1 trillion last year, compared to $1.7 trillion for Democratic blue states. Texas, Michigan, and Illinois were among the largest contributors to trade nationwide, since they have some of the largest ports.

据花旗的彼得森说,共和党红色选区之所以会损失更多,是因为它们从与其他国家的贸易中获益最多。去年,共和党红色选区的进出口总额为2.1万亿美元,而皿煮党蓝色选区的进出口总额为1.7万亿美元。德克萨斯州、密歇根州和伊利诺伊州是全美贸易的最大贡献者,因为这些州拥有一部分全美最大的港口。

After examining the kinds of goods that could be taxed, Citi found that red states ship more to countries that could retaliate US tariffs. These exports include various kinds of food, beverages, luxury goods and medical appliances — all of which are under the purview of tariffs.

在研究了可能被征税的商品种类后,花旗发现,共和党红色选区向可能报复美国关税的国家出口的商品更多。这些出口商品包括各种食品、饮料、奢侈品和医疗器械,这些都处于关税的征收范围内。

This analysis was based on data from the Census Bureau, which tell us where these products were shipped from, not where they were made. But even after looking at Bureau of Economic Analysis data that show what each state produces, Citi's conclusion was that tariffs would hurt red states more than they help.

这一分析基于人口普查局的数据,该数据告诉我们这些产品是从哪里运来的,而不是在哪里生产的。但即便在看过美国经济分析局显示每个州产出什么商品的数据后,花旗得出的结论是,关税对共和党红色选区的伤害大于其益处。

The state-level data further show that 80% of red-state economies benefit, at a level above the national median, from producing goods targeted by tariffs. Only 10% of blue states are above the median.

国家层面的数据进一步显示,80%的共和党红色选区的经济受益于生产关税征收范围内的商品,这一比例高于全国平均水平。只有10%的皿煮党蓝色选区高于中值。

The retaliatory tariffs could hit where they hurt the most: ordinary voters' pockets. According to Commerce Department data compiled by Citi, red states accounted for 3.9 million jobs related to goods exports, compared to 2.5 million in blue states.

报复性关税可能会在最伤人的地方给人以重击:那就是普通选民的口袋。根据花旗编制的美国商务部数据,共和党红色选区与出口商品相关的就业岗位为390万个,而皿煮党蓝色选区为250万个。

"With few exceptions (Texas, Florida), many 'red' states lack large, coastal international hubs, which might make each additional exports-related job loss associated with reduced global trade that much more detrimental to per capita income growth," Peterson said.

彼得森说:“除了少数例外(德克萨斯州、佛罗里达州),许多共和党红色选区缺乏大型的沿海国际中心,这可能会使每一个与出口有关的就业岗位因全球贸易的减少而流失,这对人均收入增长的损害要大得多。”

And five months to the election, it's possible that trade wars become a major campaign issue, she added.

她还说,距离大选还有5个月的时间,贸易战可能会成为主要的竞选议题。

"Every region of the US is affected by trade dispute intensification, but the data suggest that voters living in states that supported President Trump in 2016 may bear the brunt of the negative repercussions of heightened tensions and the imposition of retaliatory measures," Peterson said.

彼得森说:“美国的每个地区都受到贸易摩擦加剧的影响,但数据显示,生活在2016年支持特朗普总统的州的选民,可能会首当其冲受到紧张局势加剧和实施报复性措施的负面影响。”

'A fighting chance'

“战斗的机会”

To gauge the impact of the trade wars, the manufacturing sector is a good place to start. Many business owners are worried, but aren't slowing hiring yet. Contacts that spoke to the regional Federal Reserve banks and responded to surveys, particularly those who rely on steel and aluminum, have flagged higher prices.

要衡量贸易战的影响,制造业是一个很好的切入点。许多企业主对此感到担忧,但他们还没有放慢招聘速度。他们与地区联邦储备银行进行了沟通,并对调查做出了回应,尤其是那些依赖钢铁和铝材的企业,已经表示价格出现了上涨。

The outcry is not industrywide, however. That's partly because manufacturers are still on a hiring spree that gained steam after the 2016 elections. The Labor Department's jobs report for June, the fourth month since tariffs were implemented, showed manufacturing jobs increased by 36,000. That was the third-best month in the last five years.

然而,抗议并非是全行业都出现的。这在一定程度上是因为制造商仍在大举招聘,在2016年大选后这一势头有所增强。美国劳工部6月份就业报告显示,制造业就业岗位增加了3.6万个。这是过去五年中排名第三的最佳月份。

"It's time to acknowledge that predictions that the steel tariffs would bring doom and gloom were wildly off-base," Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, said in a statement Friday after the jobs report.

美国制造业联盟总裁斯科特•保罗上周五在一份声明中表示:“现在得承认,有关钢铁关税将带来厄运和悲观情绪的预测非常离谱。”

"The long-term benefits to employment and the US economy from leveling the playing field on trade can be secured," Paul said.

保罗表示:“能够确保贸易公平竞争对就业和美国经济的长期好处。”

"But we've got to give this strategy a fighting chance."

“但我们必须给这个策略一个战斗的机会。”

美国雅虎读者的评论:

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45519.html 译者:Joyceliu

外文:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-mountain-evidence-trump-apos-110000329.html

Rodney19 hours ago

The red states are willing to take one for the team right?

共和党选区愿意为球队牺牲的,对吗?

 

Samson

Samson21 hours ago

Thoughts and prayers

寄予哀思和祈祷

 

wp21 hours ago

Best news I heard all year

这是我一年来听到的最好的消息

 

AB21 hours ago

How's the coal business?

煤炭行业会怎么样?

 

kelly19 hours ago

Good, because that’s what they voted for

很好,因为那是他们投票的结果

 

shrɛd-Ω

shrɛd-Ω21 hours ago

gee what a surprise!

哇,好大一个惊喜!

 

No Tea For Me

No Tea For Me19 hours ago

During the 2016 election Trump told the people in these red states that he would place tariffs on China and the E.U. and that he would end NAFTA. He's doing exactly what he said he would do. So... no one in these red states have a complaint when the tariffs affect them. You got what you voted for.

在2016年的大选中,特朗普告诉这些共和党选区的人民,他是共和党人,将对中国和欧盟征收关税,他将结束北美自由贸易协定。他所做的正是他所说的。所以…当关税影响到这些共和党选区时,没有人会抱怨。你投了票,这就是投票的结果。

 

首页 > 美国 » 大量证据表明,特朗普的贸易斗争将使支持他的选民遭受最严重的伤害

()
分享到: