三泰虎

黎明报: 美国面临的下一场战争

The next American war

美国面临的下一场战争

THE odds are growing that the next American war will be against Iran. Of the three countries designated by the US as the ‘axis of evil’, Iraq was invaded; North Korea has agreed to an uncertain process for ‘denuclearisation’; Iran remains regionally powerful and defiant.

美国接下来对伊朗开战的可能性越来越大。美国认定的三个“邪恶轴心”国中,伊拉克已遭到入侵;朝鲜可能开展“无核化”进程;而伊朗仍是地区强国,目中无人。

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Former US President Obama’s strategy was to first neutralise the principal (nuclear) threat from Iran and thence co-opt it to stabilise an increasingly turbulent Middle East. Donald Trump has reversed this policy (and other facets of the Obama legacy), withdrawn from the UN Security Council endorsed nuclear agreement (formally called the Joint Comprehensive Programme of Action) and reimposed harsh US sanctions against Iran.

美国前总统奥巴马的战略是,首先消除来自伊朗的主要(核)威胁,然后利用它来稳定日益动荡的中东局势。唐纳德·特朗普改变了这一政策(以及奥巴马的其他政治遗留),退出了联合国安理会批准的核协议(正式名称为《联合全面行动纲领》),并重新对伊朗实施严厉制裁。

In a speech on May 21 at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative US think tank, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo listed 12 ‘basic requirements’ which the US wants Iran to meet. These are: continue to observe the JCPoA restraints on its nuclear programme; end support to Hezbollah, Hamas and (Palestinian) Islamic Jihad; respect Iraq’s ‘sovereignty’; end support to the Houthis in Yemen; withdraw all forces under Iranian command from Syria; end support for the Afghan Taliban and other terrorists in Afghanistan and stop harbouring Al Qaeda; end the Islamic Revolutionary Guards’ support for terrorist and militant partners; and cease threatening behaviour against neighbours and to international shipping and destructive cyber attacks.

5月21日,在美国保守派智库传统基金会的一次演讲中,美国国务卿迈克•蓬佩奥列出了美国希望伊朗满足的12项“基本要求”:继续遵守《联合行动纲领》对其核方案的限制;结束对真主党、哈马斯和(巴勒斯坦)伊斯兰圣战组织的支持;尊重伊拉克的主权;结束对也门胡塞武装的支持;从叙利亚撤出伊朗指挥的所有部队;停止对阿富汗塔利班和其他恐怖分子的支持,停止窝藏基地组织;结束伊斯兰革命卫队对恐怖分子和激进分子同伙的支持;停止对邻国的威胁行为,停止对国际航运和破坏性网络攻击的威胁。

Several commentators have described the Pompeo ‘laundry list’ of demands as a ‘pipe dream’ and ‘a strategy for disaster’.

一些评论人士将庞培的“清单”描述为“白日梦”和“灾难策略”。

While Trump may not be able to reconstruct the ‘tough’ UN-endorsed sanctions applied against Iran between 2009-2012, the US has enormous coercive power, including its control of the dollar-denominated global banking and trading system, to oblige other countries to comply with its wishes. The US has declared it will impose so-called secondary sanctions, without exception, against entities and countries importing Iranian oil after Nov 4 this year. Banks and financial institutions dealing with Iran will be excluded from dollar transactions and the SWIFT system.

尽管特朗普可能无法再次采取2009年至2012年期间受到联合国支持的针对伊朗的“严厉”制裁,但美国拥有巨大的胁迫力量,包括它对以美元计价的全球银行和贸易体系的控制,可以迫使其它国家遵从美国的意愿。美国已宣布,在今年11月4日之后,将对从伊朗进口石油的企业和国家实施所谓的二次制裁。与伊朗打交道的银行和金融机构将被排除在美元交易和SWIFT系统之外。

Despite bold European statements, several major European corporations and companies have resiled from commitments to invest in and trade with Iran. Under pressure from Washington, India is likely to end oil imports from Iran, its major supplier, by the due date. India’s much-touted construction and operation of Chahbahar port is also likely to be consigned to limbo. China, Russia, Turkey and a few others with limited exposure to US pressure, may find ways to preserve their oil, trade and investment relations with Iran.

尽管欧洲发表了大胆的声明,但几家主要的欧洲公司已经拒绝履行投资承诺、或与伊朗进行贸易的承诺。在华盛顿的压力下,印度很可能会在截止日期前停止从其主要供应国伊朗进口石油。印度的恰巴哈尔港口的建设和运营也可能被搁置。中国、俄罗斯、土耳其和其他一些受到美国压力较为有限的国家,可能会想方设法保护他们与伊朗的石油、贸易和投资关系。

The US has correctly assessed that Iran’s greatest vulnerability is the economy. As Pompeo said: “Iran must choose between keeping its economy alive or squandering precious wealth on fights abroad.” The psychological impact of US withdrawal from the JCPoA and impending sanctions has already slowed Iran’s growth, devalued the Iranian rial and raised prices. Recent demonstrations in Iran have been attributed to economic dissatisfaction.

美国精准地注意到了,伊朗最大的弱点是经济。正如蓬佩奥所言:“伊朗必须在保持经济活力和在海外战争中浪费宝贵财富之间做出选择。“美国的退出带来的心理阴影以及即将到来的制裁已经减缓了伊朗的经济增长,造成了伊朗里亚尔的贬值和物价的上升。伊朗国内最近爆发的示威活动就是民众对经济不满所致。

The US and its allies will seek to exploit Iran’s economic vulnerabilities as well as ethnic and religious fissures, including the Sunni insurgency in Sistan-Baluchistan.

美国及其盟友将努力利用伊朗的经济脆弱性以及种族和宗教裂痕,包括锡斯坦-俾路支斯坦的逊尼派叛乱。

Tehran, of course, has the capacity for a wide range of retaliatory actions.

当然,德黑兰有能力采取广泛的报复行动。

Iran would be within its rights to renounce the JCPoA and resume enrichment in view of the US withdrawal from the agreement. It is unlikely to do so, at least, for the present in order to preserve European commitments and Russian and Chinese support and not justify US coercion.

鉴于美国的退出,伊朗将有权放弃核协议,恢复铀浓缩活动。至少就目前而言,伊朗为了维护欧洲的承诺、俄罗斯和中国的支持,还不太可能这么做。

Tehran could unleash Hezbollah and other Shia militant groups against Israel; compel Iraq to expel the American presence from that country; escalate support for the Houthis, for instance, by supplying longer-range missiles; actively support the Afghan Taliban insurgency; expand support to Qatar in its spat with the Saudis and Emiratis and foment Shia dissidence in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia’s eastern seaboard.

德黑兰可以发动真主党和其他什叶派武装组织来对抗以色列;迫使伊拉克驱逐美国在伊拉克的军队;例如,通过提供远程导弹,加强对胡塞武装的支持;积极支持阿富汗塔利班叛乱;在与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的口角中扩大对卡塔尔的支持,并在巴林和沙特东部沿海煽动什叶派异议。

The US and Its allies have already taken steps to blunt Iranian retaliation. Israel, working with Russia, has extracted a commitment from Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad not to allow Iranian forces or militias close to the ceasefire line with Israel. The US and Saudi Arabia are working hard to co-opt some Iraqi Shia leaders, such as Muqtada Al Sadr,(but have suffered a recent reversal). The US has now openly joined the Saudis and Emiratis to mount offensive operations against the Houthis in Yemen to recapture Al Hodeidah port. The US is now also seeking a political settlement with the Afghan Taliban and pressing Pakistan to ‘bring them to the table’.

美国及其盟友已经采取措施打击伊朗的报复行动。与俄罗斯合作的以色列从叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德那里得到承诺,不允许伊朗军队或民兵接近与以色列的停火线。美国和沙特阿拉伯正努力拉拢一些伊拉克什叶派领导人,比如穆克塔达•萨德尔。现在,美国已公开加入沙特和阿联酋的行列,对也门的胡塞武装发动攻势,重新夺回荷台达港。美国目前还在寻求与阿富汗塔利班达成政治和解,并敦促巴基斯坦“把他们带回到谈判桌前”。

Such an escalation would, in turn, create the casus belli that the US and Israel may be looking for to launch military action against Iran’s nuclear and strategic facilities. Trump and his principal advisers, and certainly Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, seem prepared, perhaps even eager, to resort to such military strikes. Unlike North Korea, Iran does not possess nuclear weapons to deter such ‘pre-emptive’ strikes.

这种升级反过来将引发开战的导火索,美国和以色列可能正寻求对伊朗的核和战略设施发动军事行动。特朗普和他的主要顾问,当然还有以色列总理本雅明内塔尼亚胡似乎已经准备好,甚至可能渴望将此类军事打击诉诸行动。与朝鲜不同,伊朗没有核武器来阻止这种“先发制人”的打击。

To avoid this grim scenario, Iran will need to resort to deft diplomacy and in particular to secure unequivocal support from China and Russia against any use or threat of force against it. In this diplomatic process, Iran may be obliged to accept some US demands.

为了避免这种可怕的局面,伊朗将需要采取灵活的外交手段,特别是确保中国和俄罗斯对其使用或威胁使用武力提供明确的支持。在这一外交过程中,伊朗可能被迫接受美国的一些要求。

Pakistan can suffer serious collateral damage from the mounting US-Iran confrontation and would do well to remain aloof from any involvement. The economic injury from US sanctions on Iran would be the least of Pakistan’s problems, since its trade with Tehran is limited. However, if Pakistan’s territory is used by Sunni groups for attacks in Sistan-Baluchistan, Iran could retaliate by fomenting Shia-Sunni violence in Pakistan. Another hostile neighbour is the last thing Pakistan needs at this moment.

美国与伊朗的对峙愈演愈烈,巴基斯坦可能会遭受严重的连带损失,因此最好不要卷入其中。由于巴基斯坦与伊朗的贸易有限,美国对伊朗的制裁所造成的经济伤害将是巴基斯坦面临的最微不足道的问题。然而,如果逊尼派利用巴基斯坦的领土在锡斯坦-俾路支斯坦发动袭击,伊朗可能会通过在巴基斯坦煽动什叶派-逊尼派暴力来报复。巴基斯坦目前最不需要的就是另一个敌对的邻国。

美国雅虎读者的评论:

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45516.html 译者:Joyceliu

外文:https://www.dawn.com/news/1418703/the-next-american-war

Sindhi

a day ago

As usual, one of the great analyses.

一如既往地,这是最棒的分析文章之一

 

Jiyalo Wadero

a day ago

Mr.Munir Akram has kept the element of surprise at the end of his article when he brings Pakistan into picture.He is absolutely right with his timely wise advice for the Pakistani Nation to simply adopt a non involvement in the U.S. Iran conflict."Another hostile neighbour is the last thing Pakistan needs at this moment". Well said.

穆尼尔·阿克拉姆在他的文章末尾提到巴基斯坦的时候,让人始终啧啧称奇。他绝对正确地提出了及时明智的建议,让巴基斯坦完全不卷入美国与伊朗的冲突。“巴基斯坦目前最不需要的就是另一个敌对的邻国”。说得真好。

 

Abc

a day ago

Muneer saab's far sighted views should be understood by all the people in Pakistan.. Waiting for more expert analysis from him in coming days..

穆尼尔萨博的远见卓识应该被巴基斯坦人民所理解。未来我期待着他提供更多的专家意见。

 

Jameel

a day ago

Another great article by distingusihed diplomat. Facts supported great analysis and conclusion followed. Thank you

作者的另一篇杰出文章是《外交官》。他用事实支持了大量的分析和结论。谢谢你!

 

Khawar Hanif

a day ago

Great encapsulation of US Iran policy.

很好地概括了美国对伊朗的政策。

 

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