三泰虎

美媒: 贸易战武器, 中国会有什么锦囊妙计?

Weapons of trade war: What might China have up its sleeve?

贸易战武器: 中国会有什么锦囊妙计?

Beijing (AFP) - The first shots have been fired in a trade war between China and the United States that experts say could be damaging for the world economy.

北京(法新社)-中美贸易战已经打响了第一枪,专家称这可能会对世界经济造成损害。

The two superpowers on Friday imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on billions of dollars of cross-border trade.

While US President Donald Trump has brushed off warnings that trade frictions with powerful partners like China could harm the US, Beijing has other weapons in its arsenal beside tariffs to cause damage in a fight.

上周五,两个超级大国对数十亿美元的跨境贸易实施了针锋相对的关税。

尽管美国总统唐纳德•特朗普对与中国等强大贸易伙伴间的贸易摩擦可能会对美国造成伤害的警告没有理会,但除了征收关税外,北京方面在其“武器库中”还有其他武器可以在这场战斗中给对方造成损害。

- Cruising for a bruising -

美国“自讨苦吃”

Tom Cruise films, Starbucks coffee, the iPhone X and the Buick are all best-sellers in China and authorities could find all sorts of ways to make life difficult for them, says Louis Kuijs, Asia analyst at Oxford Economics.

牛津经济研究院的一名亚洲分析师高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示,汤姆•克鲁斯的电影、星巴克咖啡、iPhone X和别克在中国都很畅销,中国当局有各种办法刁难它们,让它们的生意不好做。

7cad35042d9e917c612c611ed135a6baeda26de5.jpg

China "has less ammunition left in terms of imposing tariffs but history shows that there are various other measures it could take to inflict pain on US companies," said Kuijs.

“在征收关税方面,中国所剩的弹药更少了,但历史表明,中国可以采取各种其他措施,给美国企业带来痛苦”高路易说到。

He cited "scaled-up health, safety and tax checks, delaying the import of goods and boycotts of US goods."

他列举到“大规模的健康、安全和税务检查、延迟商品进口和抵制美国商品等”。

Chinese port officials have already started upping inspections of American pork and cars, causing severe delays.

中国港口官员已经开始加大对美国猪肉和汽车的检查力度,这对美国商品造成了严重的延误。

- Buick boycott -

“抵制别克”

General Motors now sells more cars in China than it does in the US -- and many other iconic American brands now derive a large proportion of revenue from the fast-growing Chinese market.

通用汽车目前在中国的汽车销量超过了在美国的销量,如今许多其他标志性的美国品牌在快速增长的中国市场获得了很大一部分收入。

China could either tie up these firms in red tape or encourage an effective boycott by Chinese consumers, experts said.

专家称,中国可以用繁琐的官方手续来约束这些公司,也可以鼓励中国消费者进行有效的抵制。

Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, said Beijing could arrange a "propaganda campaign, which allows officials to remain at arm's length from the resulting disruption to sales."

凯投宏观首席亚洲经济学家马克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示,北京方面可能会安排一场“宣传活动,让官员们能够与由此导致的销售中断保持一定距离”

"In the past, these have proved both effective and fast," said Williams, noting that similar campaigns against South Korea and Japan at times of political tension "led to 50-percent falls in car sales by those countries' firms in a single month."

“事实证明,在过去这些措施既有效又迅速。”威廉姆斯说到。他指出,在政治紧张时期,针对韩国和日本的类似行动“导致这些国家的汽车公司在一个月内销量下降了50%。”

Last year, Chinese consumers suddenly turned against South Korean retailer Lotte, which was forced to shut three-quarters of its shops in China after providing Seoul with land to deploy an American anti-missile shield that Beijing opposes.

去年,中国消费者突然转而反对韩国零售商乐天,该公司在向首尔提供了部署美国反导弹防御系统的土地后,被迫关闭了中国四分之三的门店。

- School's out -

“美国学校面临放假”

China may start limiting the number of big-spending tourists and its 350,000 students that head to the US each year, which would have a big impact on the American market.

中国可能开始限制每年前往美国的大额消费游客的数量,每年35万名到美国留学的学生数量也会受到限制,这将对美国市场产生重大影响。

"Chinese spending on travel and education in the US is similar in size to its spending on US soybeans and aircraft -- the two largest goods purchases," said Williams.

威廉姆斯表示:“中国在美国旅游和教育方面的支出,和在美国大豆和飞机上的支出相当,大豆和飞机是两项最大的采购项目。”

China has previously limited tour groups to pressure Taiwan and South Korea, noted the expert.

专家指出,为了向台湾和韩国施压,中国此前曾限制旅游团前往这两个地方。

However, he added: "China may feel that US universities have limited leverage over the Trump administration and limiting student numbers could undermine efforts to upgrade China's technical and scientific capabilities."

不过,他补充称:“中国可能会发现,美国大学对特朗普政服的影响力有限,而且限制学生人数可能会损害提升中国科技能力的努力。”

- Boeing blow-out -

“波音遭殃”

Boeing sells a quarter of its planes in China, the second-biggest market in the world, and the US aerospace giant is neck-and-neck with European rival Airbus.

波音公司四分之一的飞机销往中国,中国是世界第二大飞机市场,波音这家美国航空巨头与欧洲竞争对手空中客车公司(Airbus)在中国的销量并驾齐驱。

This could be another pressure point, as most Chinese airlines are under state control with their orders strictly piloted by Beijing.

这也是中国另一个施压点,因为大多数中国航空公司都在国家控制之下,它们的订单由北京严格控制。

Even though orders are planned for the next five years, nationalistic state-run tabloid Global Times has already sounded a warning, saying Beijing could "adjust the sales volumes."

尽管未来5年的飞机订单都在计划之中,但民族主义的官方小报《环球时报》已经发出警告,称中国政服可能“调整销量”。

- Debt and devaluation -

“债务和货币贬值”

With its enormous currency reserves, China holds some $1.2 trillion in US treasury bonds and officials have reportedly started to slow or halt their purchases.

中国拥有庞大的外汇储备,大约持有1.2万亿美元的美国国债,据报道,中国官员已开始放缓或停止购买美国国债。

While some see this as a powerful bargaining chip with Washington, it is a double-edged sword for Beijing as dumping the bonds would cause self-inflicted losses.

尽管有些人认为,这是和华盛顿讨价还价的有力筹码,但对北京而言,这是一把双刃剑,因为抛售美国国债也会对自身造成损失。

Another weapon at Beijing's disposal is the yuan, tightly controlled by the central bank, which it could depreciate to bolster exporters.

北京手中的另一个“武器”是由央行严格控制的人民币,可以通过贬值来支持出口商。

But again, this could be a self-inflicted wound since it might provoke sizable capital outflows out of China.

但同样的,这可能会给自身造成损失,因为它可能会引发大量中国资本外流。

Julian Evans-Pritchard from Capital Economics said: "While a weaker currency could offset some of the economic damage done by US tariffs, the wider risks to financial stability would not be worth taking."

凯投宏观的朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)表示:“尽管货币贬值可以抵消美国关税造成的部分经济损失,但要为此承担金融稳定的更大风险是不值得的。”

- Korean co-operation -

“朝鲜合作”

If economic weapons don't work, Beijing could turn to politics. Trump relies heavily on Chinese cooperation to rein in the nuclear ambitions of North Korea's Kim Jong Un -- especially in terms of maintaining sanctions.

如果经济武器不起作用,北京方面可能转向政治方面。特朗普非常依赖与中国的合作,来遏制朝鲜领导人金正恩的核野心,尤其是在维持制裁方面。

Trump may suddenly find China less accommodating on this explosive dossier if the trade war expands.

特朗普可能会突然发现,如果贸易战继续扩大,中国在朝核问题上就会变得不那么通融。

美国雅虎读者评论:

原创翻译:三泰虎  http://www.santaihu.com/45513.html 译者:Jessica.Wu

外文:https://www.yahoo.com/news/weapons-trade-war-might-china-sleeve-023237502.html

Aaron-13 hours ago

According to the US Census, we exported about $130billion to China in 2017. Our GDP was about $19.4trillion. This amounted to .67% of our GDP. On the other hand, Chinese exports to the US were $505billion on a reported GDP of $12triilion. This is about 4.5% of their GDP.

Year to date, the Chinese market is down almost 17%. The major US markets are Dow down 1%, Nasdaq up 11%, and the S&P up 3%. It would appear the US is holding aces while China is bluffing hoping that the US population will be influenced by headlines such as this one.

根据美国的人口普查,在2017年我们对中国出口额大约为1300亿美元,国内生产总值约为19.4万亿美元,这相当于占了我们GDP的0.67%。另一方面,中国对美国的出口额为5050亿美元,而据报道中国的GDP为12万亿美元,这大约占GDP的4.5%。

今年迄今为止,中国股市下跌了近17%,美国主要股市下跌了1%,纳斯达克指数上涨了11%,标准普尔指数上涨了3%。这么看来,美国似乎在占据优势,而中国则在虚张声势,希望美国民众会受到这类新闻标题的影响。

 

Anonymous-22 hours ago

China will come out in the coming days to announce a $200 billion order from Airbus...watch.

中国将在未来几天宣布,来自空中客车公司的2000亿美元订单,等着看吧

 

BOBBY-23 hours ago

Oh No! China may boycott Tom Cruise films?

哦不!中国会抵制汤姆·克鲁斯的电影?

 

Me-15 hours ago

China has nothing on the U.S., because if they start tariffs, any and every U.S. tech company can pull production of tech and start making them in the U.S.

中国从美国什么捞不到,因为如果他们开始征收关税,任何一家美国科技公司都可以停止在中国生产技术产品,转而开始在美国生产。

 

Paul-21 hours ago

How could China and the US have balance trade when we don't make anything is the US anymore?

当我们不再生产美国产品时,中美之间怎么能有平衡贸易呢?

 

首页 > 美国 » 美媒: 贸易战武器, 中国会有什么锦囊妙计?

()
分享到: