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美媒: 莫迪的难题,中国来支招

China Has A Solution To One Of Modi's Problems

莫迪的难题,中国来支招

Panos Mourdoukoutas , CONTRIBUTOR

撰稿人:帕诺斯默多库塔斯

Narendra Modi has a serious problem: his economic policies don’t create enough jobs to employ the country’s growing young labor force. And he needs to find a solution to the problem quickly, before the 2019 elections. Otherwise he will be history.

印度总理莫迪正面临一个严峻的问题:他推行的经济政策并没有创造足够的就业机会,来解决国内日益增长的年轻劳动力的就业问题。在2019年大选之前,他需尽快找到解决办法,否则他将面临落选成为历史。

But like all of India’s problems, China claims to have solutions to its neighbor’s employment problem: Turn India into its backyard factory for labor intensive products.

然而就像对待印度存在的其他所有问题一样,中国声称自己有解决邻国就业问题的办法:把印度变成自家后院工厂,生产劳动密集型产品。

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That’s according to a recent Global Times editorial, which advises Modi to work together with China to develop labor intensive industries. “It would be best for Sino-Indian cooperation, for the time being, to be focused on labor-intensive and export-oriented industries, which could tap into India's abundant labor resources,” writes Mao Keji, researcher with the Pangoal Institution. “Considering both countries' comparative advantages, such cooperation may well relieve India's current trade deficit, and other issues such as overreliance on foreign capital and insufficient employment opportunities, while providing China with more avenues for growth. Industrialization is vital for India to become a global economic powerhouse, and China can benefit by playing an active role in this. Fortunately, both India and China now seem readier than ever to deepen bilateral cooperation in this aspect.”

《环球时报》最近一篇社论建议莫迪与中国合作,发展劳动密集型产业。盘古智库研究员毛克吉(音译)写道:“目前,中印合作最好是专注于劳动密集型和出口导向型产业,这些产业可以充分利用印度丰富的劳动力资源。考虑到两国的相对优势,这种合作或能有效缓解印度目前的贸易逆差,以及对外资的过度依赖和就业机会不足等问题,同时也为中国提供更多的发展途径。工业化对印度成为全球经济强国至关重要,中国可以在这方面发挥积极作用,并从中受益。庆幸的是,印度和中国现在似乎比以往任何时候都更愿意深化这方面的双边合作。”

What sort of cooperation? Some kind of “created in China, manufactured in India” relationship.

That’s the kind of cooperation that China desperately needs for a number of reasons. One of them is that rising internal labor costs has eroded its competitive advantage vis-à-vis countries like India and Vietnam.

Then there’s China’s need for new markets for products that face U.S. tariffs. And additionally, the need to get rid of its polluting industries, which have made life miserable for its citizens.

具体的合作模式呢? 类似“中国创造,印度生产”模式

这种合作正是中国迫切需要的,原因有很多。其中之一是,相对于印度越南等国,中国国内劳动力成本的上升削弱了其自身的竞争优势。

此外,中国还需要为面临美国关税的产品开辟新的市场,同时还需要淘汰那些导致民生悲催的污染行业。

Does India need this cooperation?

There are advantages to having China manufacturing labor intensive products in India. Like the creation of job opportunities for India’s low skilled labor force, something Modi needs as he faces elections next year.

But there are disadvantages, too. The arrangement could raise China’s influence in India, nurture some kind of neo-imperialist relationship; and the move could compound the pollution problem in already polluted Indian cities.

印度需要这种合作吗?

让中国在印度生产劳动密集型产品对印度也是有好处的。比如为印度低技能劳动力创造就业机会,这正是莫迪在明年大选之前所需要解决的。

但其中也存在弊端,这种合作可能会提升中国在印度的影响力,滋生某种新帝国主义关系,也可能会恶化印度城市本就存在的污染问题。

That’s why India’s policy makers should take China’s advice with skepticism.

Meanwhile, there’s a better advice for Prime Minister Modi: spend less time abroad and more time at home. Because the gap between the country’s rich keep on growing bigger and bigger as he travels from Switzerland to China -- and Indians think they are worse off than they were three years ago.

That’s according to a Gallup survey, which finds a big decline in the percentage of Indians who rate their lives positively enough to rate it as "thriving" since Modi assumed office.

为此印度决策者应该对中国的建议持怀疑态度。

与此同时,对于莫迪总理来说,还有一个更好的建议:少花点时间在国外,多待在国内。莫迪从瑞士到中国的旅行期间,印度的贫富差距越来越大——印度人认为他们的境况比三年前更糟了。

以上是根据盖洛普的一项调查得出的结论。该调查发现,自莫迪上任以来,印度人对自己生活水平的正面评价大幅下降,根本达不到“生活美满”的水平。

The survey findings provide a different picture from that which one gets when looking at India’s financial markets. In fact, they have been soaring, up close to 27.56% in the last two years.

Nonetheless, only 3% of Indians consider themselves thriving in 2017 compared to 14% in 2014 (see table 1 below).

Apparently, Modi’s policies that have helped the Indian economy grow have yet to touch the masses. Living Wage Family in India remains almost flat in the 17300-17400 INR/Month range over his tenure. Meanwhile, wages paid to low-skilled labor decreased to 10300 INR/Month in 2017 from 13300 INR/Month in 2014.

调查结果展现了一幅与印度金融市场视角截然不同的图景。事实上,不满意率一直在飙升,在过去两年中增长了近27.56%。

尽管如此,只有3%的印度人认为2017年能够“生活美满”,而在2014年这一比例为14%(见下表1)。

显然,莫迪的政策促进了印度经济增长但未造福普通民众。在其任期内,印度工薪家庭的月收入几乎没有变化,保持在17300-17400卢比/月。同时,低技能劳动力的工资从2014年的13300卢比/月下降到2017年的10300卢比/月。

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**2016

Source: Tradingeconomics.com and Gallup News.

数据来源:radingeconomics.com、盖洛普

Then there’s the persistence of corruption, the rise of nonperforming loans in state-owned banks, high taxation, poor public health, and chronic income inequality — something that Modi inherited from previous administrations (see The World Inequality Report 2018).

All these could explain the contrast between the high hopes of the Indian people for their economy and what they are personally experiencing.

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads into the 2019 elections, that should be a matter of great concern.

此外,还有腐败问题的持续存在、国有银行不良贷款的增加、高税收、恶劣的公共卫生状况以及长期的收入不平等——这些都是莫迪前几任政府的遗留问题。(参考《2018年世界不平等报告》)。

综上也不难解释印度人民对经济增加的厚望和自己亲身经历的现实之间的鲜明反差。

在莫迪总理即将参加2019年选举之际,这会是一个值得高度关注的问题。

来源:http://www.santaihu.com/45255.html

文章来自: https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/06/11/china-has-a-solution-to-one-of-modis-problems/?partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#21193501b05a

美国雅虎读者评论:

Factswelcome 13 hours ago

A question for Mr. Panos Mourdoukoutas ---China kick-started her economy by serving as a low cost labor market for the West. In exactly the same manner that you called "Some kind of “created in China, manufactured in India” relationship". The nations that China offered the cheap labor to were ones like America, Japan and EU nations. It also came with pollution.

Did YOU,Mr. Panos Mourdoukoutas, caution China about " neo-imperialist relationship" with the West? If not, why not?

Has China, in YOUR view, turned into a neo colonial state of the West? If not, why should India be different? What is BEHIND your warning?

给帕诺斯•默多库塔斯(本人作者)提个问题:作为西方的低成本劳动力市场,中国的经济得以发展。正如你所说的某种“中国创造,印度生产”的模式。中国向诸如美国、日本和欧盟国家提供廉价劳动力,这也造成了污染。

您是否担心中国和西方形成某种“新帝国主义关系”? 如果不担心, 原因何在? 在你看来,中国已经变成了一个新殖皿煮义的西方国家吗?如果不是,为什么印度要担心?在你的警示背后隐藏了什么?

 

Paul 14 hours ago

Moving low-skilled manufacturing jobs to India is a good idea, provided that China can raise the skill levels of the workers displaced in their current jobs. The U.S. hasn't been able to. The U.S. has an added problem: It's not willing to sell its high end high-tech products to countries like China, contributing to its trade deficit. China would be less likely in doing so.

将低技能制造业工作岗位转移到印度是个好主意,前提是中国能提高当前岗位上工人的技能水平,因为他们即将被取代了。美国没能做到这一点,美国还有另外一个问题:它不愿意向像中国这样的国家出售高端高科技产品,因而导致贸易逆差。中国或许不会这么做。

 

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