三泰虎

美媒:超音速飞机向着回归踏近了一步

Supersonic Flights Just Moved 1 Step Closer to a Comeback

超音速飞机向着回归踏近了一步

The dream of traveling from coast to coast or across the ocean in a matter of hours is a real possibility, with the Federal Aviation Administration beginning work on updated regulations to accommodate a new generation of supersonic aircraft. The changes would be great news for passengers, while creating both challenges and new opportunities for aerospace giants like Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and Boeing (NYSE: BA).

美国联邦航空管理局正着手更新规定,以适应新一代的超音速飞机。乘客们在几个小时内跨越海岸,穿越海洋的梦想很快就将实现。这种变化对乘客来说是一个好消息,同时也给像洛克希德·马丁公司(纽交所:LMT)和波音公司(纽交所:BA)这样的航空巨头带来了挑战和新的机遇。

The FAA intends to issue a formal proposal on new noise guidelines by December, according to a post on the White House's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs website. The new rules would allow for testing of new supersonic technologies that are designed to not generate a disruptive sonic boom, and pave the way for eventual approval of the new technologies if they work as planned.

白宫信息与监管事务办公室的一篇文章称,美国联邦航空局打算在12月之前发布新的噪音准则的正式提案。新规定将测试超音速技术,已确认这些新技术不会产生破坏性的音爆,并为最终批准这些新技术铺平道路。

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Commercial aviation hit supersonic speeds in 1976 when the Concorde took to the skies, but that aircraft, because of its loud boom, was limited to operating only over water due to concerns that the boom would break windows, scare livestock, and generally disrupt daily lives. Those guidelines restricting the Concorde to trans-ocean flying limited the airplane's usefulness and helped lead to its retirement in 2003.

1976年,协和式飞机冲向云霄时,商用飞机的速度已逼近超音速,但由于担心巨大的轰鸣声会打破窗户、惊吓牲畜并扰乱日常生活,这种飞机只限于水上活动。这些约束协和式飞机的指导方针限制了飞机的使用,导致了其在2003年退役。

Advances in design and material technology now allow for aircraft designs that minimize that sonic boom, and NASA has been working with the industry on concepts since 2010. But even if the noise challenges can be overcome, FAA regulations currently restrict supersonic flight based on speed and not based on noise generated, so the go nment would have to update regulations before commercial flights or even tests could be permitted.

如今设计和材料技术的进步使得飞机的声爆降到最低,而美国国家航空和宇宙航行局自2010年起就开始涉足这一领域。但是,即使克服了噪音问题,美国联邦航空管理局目前的规定限制的是超音速飞行的速度,而不是基于飞行时产生的噪音,所以政府必须赶在商业飞行前甚至测试前修订法规。

New opportunities and risks

新的机遇和风险

The FAA's planned action is good news for Lockheed Martin, which earlier this year was awarded a $247.5 million contract from NASA to design and build a modern supersonic commercial aircraft. Delivery of the aircraft is expected in late 2021, and NASA is likely to use the data the test flights produce to build its case for allowing a return of faster-than-sound flying.

美国联邦航空管理局的计划对洛克希德马丁公司来说是个好消息。今年早些时候,洛克希德马丁公司从美国宇航局获得了一份2.475亿美元的合同,用于设计和建造现代的超音速商用飞机。该飞机预计于2021年年底交付,美国国家航空和宇宙航行局可能会使用测试飞行产生的数据支持允许超音速飞行回归的主张。

The ramifications for Boeing are more complicated. The company's massive commercial division accounts for more than 60% of its $93.4 billion in annual revenue. The company needs to be at least cognizant that its long-range, widebody order book, which currently stands at about 1,000 airplanes, could eventually come under pressure should airlines have a supersonic alternative.

这项法案对波音的影响更加森远。该公司庞大的商业部门占公司年收入934亿美元的60%以上。该公司至少需要认识到,它的远程、宽体飞机订单目前已累积了约1000架待交付飞机,如果航空公司拥有超音速飞机的替代方案,波音可能将会面临极大压力。

Of course, that threat is still a way off, and Boeing is working on its own hypersonic offerings. The company earlier this year unveiled a new hypersonic design that at least initially will be targeting the defense market, but last summer at the Paris Air Show, CEO Dennis Muilenburg said of commercial hypersonic flights, "I think in the next decade or two you're going to see it become a reality."

当然,这种威胁还为时尚早,波音公司也正在研发自己的高超声速飞机。公司今年早些时候发布了新的超音速飞机,最初将用于国防领域,但去年夏天在巴黎航展上,首席执行官丹尼斯穆勒伯格谈及商业高超音速飞行时说,“我认为未来十年或二十年内,这种飞机将成为现实。”

Engines, a British firm working to develop a hybrid engine able to travel five times the speed of sound in atmosphere. It's far to early to project demand for supersonic aircraft or to predict list prices, but Boeing appears to be hedging its bets and committing R&D resources to make sure it is not left behind if these initial efforts prove to be a success.

英国的引擎公司,也致力于研发混合动力引擎,能使飞机以五倍于音速的速度在空中飞行。对超音速飞机的需求和价格的预测还为时过早,但波音似乎在对冲其赌注并投入研发资源,以确保这些早期努力获得成功后,它不会落在人后。

Other companies are pursuing the technology as well. Boom Supersonic, a Denver-based start-up backed by Japan Airlines and several venture firms and partnered with Richard Branson, is developing a plane capable of flying at more than twice the speed of sound that it hopes to introduce by 2023.

其他公司也在研究这项技术。“繁荣超音速公司”是一家总部位于丹麦的初创企业,由日本航空公司和几家风险投资公司资助,并与理查德•布兰森合作。他们正在研发一种飞机,预计在2023年前发布,飞行速度达到音速的2倍以上。

Disruption will take time

中断需要花费时间

The talk of an early 2020s return of supersonic flying is exciting, but for the foreseeable future, Boeing's order book feels secure. Even if these new concepts work as planned and regulators sign off on noise rules that will allow the planes to fly over land, airlines are likely to tread slowly before committing to new technologies.

超音速飞机在2020年代回归的说法令人兴奋,但在可预见的将来,波音的订货簿还是安全无虞的。即使这些新概念能按计划实现,监管机构也会制定允许飞机飞越陆地的噪音规则,航空公司在新技术落地之前可能会步履维艰。

These supersonic jets, like the Concorde before it, will likely be significantly more expensive than the Boeing 777s and 787s they could potentially replace; it also remains to be seen what percentage of airline passengers will be willing to pay premium ticket prices to shave a few hours off of a flight from New York to Tokyo. Until commercial operators have a better understanding of the cost of and demand for the faster flying, they're likely to stick with what they know.

这些超音速喷气式飞机,就像之前的协和式飞机一样,可能会比波音777和787客机贵得多。另外还有待观察的是,在从纽约飞往东京的航班上,愿意支付高价机票的乘客比例是多少。在商业经营者对快速飞行的成本和需求有更深入的了解之前,他们很可能会固守他们所熟悉的一切。

What is clear is that supersonic flying is poised for a comeback. There might be turbulence along the way, but over the long haul expect both Lockheed and Boeing to be among the winners as the technology matures.

很明显,超音速飞行正准备卷土重来。回归之路可能存在曲折动荡,但长期来看,随着技术的成熟,洛克希德和波音将成为赢家。

美国雅虎读者的评论:

来源:http://www.santaihu.com/45096.html

外文:https://finance.yahoo.com

Will

8 hours ago

Whatever the new design looks like I’m sure the Russians and Chinese version will look just like ours.

无论新设计长什么样,我相信俄罗斯人和中国的设计会和我们的一样。

 

Robert

6 hours ago

have to sell my home to buy a ticket....no thank u.

估计我得倾家荡产才买得起一张票,算了谢谢了

 

frank

7 hours ago

l'm still waiting on those flying cars that they predicted by the year 2000.?

我还在等着飞行汽车呢,不是说2000年就能出现?

 

dave

7 hours ago

NY to LA in an hour ? That would be cool.

一个小时从纽约飞到洛杉矶?那很酷啊。

 

Red Sox 27149

8 hours ago

Flying on the Concorde was fantastic. I can’t wait for Supersonic travel to resume.

搭乘协和式飞机真是太棒了。我迫不及待地想要恢复超音速旅行。

 

Jim

8 hours ago

More expensive toys for the 10%ers to use as status symbols against mainstream USA flying aboard traditional commercial aircraft like sardines in a can.

对于10%的人来说,昂贵的玩具是地位的象征,相比之下美国大众还是会乘坐传统的商用飞机,就像挤沙丁鱼罐头。

 

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