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美媒:美国海军新战舰或成为中国的恶梦?

A New Battleship for the Navy? Why This Could Be China's Biggest Military Nightmare

美海军新战舰或成为中国的恶梦?

The National Interest•May 10, 2018

The U.S. Navy will never again be a dreadnought fleet of big-gun battleships. But it is time to reexamine the role of armor in naval architecture. Even the most forward-leaning offensive operation needs a few tough linesmen who can take a beating and stay in the game. A future battleship would give the Navy— and by extension the president—warfighting options other than the total annihilation of the enemy. Regular FONOPs already demonstrate the need for such options. The A2/AD threat will likely generate even more dangerous missions that only a durable battleship of the future can safely perform.

美国海军将不再是一支无敌的舰队。但现在是时候重新审视装甲在海军中的作用了。未来的战舰将给予海军更多作战选择,而不是追求彻底歼灭敌人。常规的“航行自由行动”已经证明了这种选择的必要性。

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In World War II, the Japanese super-battleships Yamato and Musahi each mounted nine 18.1-inch guns, the largest naval guns ever deployed, but they never sank a single American ship. In a conflict decided by naval aviation, Yamato and Musahi were used mainly as flagships and troop transports. Despite their huge armaments, they were steel dinosaurs from an earlier strategic age.

二战中,日本的超级战舰大和号和Musahi分别安装了9个18.1英寸的大炮,这是有史以来海军最大的炮,但是他们从未击沉过一艘美国军舰。在一场由海军航空力量决胜的冲突中,大和号和Musahi主要被用作旗舰和部队运输。尽管有庞大的武器装备,但他们是早期战时的钢铁恐龙。

But how do you sink a steel dinosaur? The answer is: "with difficulty." It took eleven torpedoes and six bombs to sink the Yamato. The Musahi took nineteen torpedoes and seventeen bombs. And at the time they were sunk, both ships were already limping along on patch-up repairs from earlier torpedo strikes. They may have been strategically useless, but the Yamato and Musahi were almost (if not quite) indestructible.

然而,如何击沉一只钢铁恐龙?答案是:“有困难。”击沉大和号用了11枚鱼雷和6枚炸弹。击沉Musahi用了19枚鱼雷和17枚炸弹。沉没的时候,被鱼雷击中的两艘战舰蹒跚而行。在战略上这两艘战舰也许作用不大,但大和号与Musahi几乎坚不可摧。

Naval construction requires decades of advance planning, and naval planners are always at risk of fighting the last war. Since the end of World War II, U.S. naval planning has revolved around the aircraft carrier. But world wars are few and far between, and other missions abound. When it comes to countering the rise of China, some of the most frequent missions are freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) requiring no fighting at all.

海军建设需要几十年的预先规划,而海军的规划者们总是面临着末日大战的危险。自二战结束以来,美国海军的计划一直围绕着航空母舰展开。在对抗中国崛起的问题上,最频繁的任务是航行自由行动,而这是不需要战斗的

Over the last several years China has become increasingly aggressive in asserting illegal maritime claims in the South China Sea. In response, the United States regularly conducts FONOPs, sailing destroyers within twelve nautical miles of China's artificial islands to repudiate Beijing's claims to sovereign territorial waters. So far, China has been sensible enough not to challenge any of these operations.

在过去的几年里,中国在南海主张海洋主权的行为越来越咄咄逼人。作为回应,美国经常在中国人工岛的12海里范围内进行驱逐舰的航行自由行动,以否定北京的主张。到目前为止,中国保持足够克制,没有去挑战这些行动。

But a destroyer is a fragile fish. In June last year the USS Fitzgerald was put out of action by a collision with a container ship, with the loss of seven lives—on the destroyer. Then in August the USS John S. McCain was nearly sunk by an oil tanker. Ten sailors lost their lives. The tanker suffered no injuries. Leaving aside the issue of poor seamanship, these two collisions illustrated a potentially more serious shortcoming of today's naval ships: poor survivability. Navy ships used to threaten oil tankers, not the other way around.

驱逐舰是脆弱的。去年六月份,菲茨杰拉德号驱逐舰与一艘集装箱船相撞,舰上7人丧命。八月份,约翰·麦凯恩号险些被一艘油轮撞沉,十名水手丧生。油轮没有受损。撇开拙劣的航海技术不谈,这两次碰撞说明了如今海军舰艇潜在的一个更严重的缺点:生存能力差。以前,海军舰艇对油轮构成威胁。

The U.S. Navy certainly needs the firepower provided by its awesome carrier strike groups and its flimsy, but nonetheless formidable, guided missile destroyers. But it also needs ships that can take a punch and keep on sailing. That kind of toughness is likely to become an even more important quality as China develops its precision strike capacities. Soon it may become too dangerous to sail an unarmored ship in the South China Sea.

美国海军当然需要火力强大的航母战斗群及导弹驱逐舰提供的火力。但也需要被撞后能继续航行的船只。随着中国发展其精确打击能力,这种能力表现得更迫切。不久之后,未武装的船只在南海航行将愈发危险。

Stealth is one way to keep from getting hit, and the United States leads the way in the development of stealthy destroyers. But stealth defeats the purpose of a FONOP, which is to be seen. An old-fashioned battleship is a ship to be seen—and in a big way. But there's no need for the Navy to build an old-fashioned battleship in the twenty-first century when it can build a new-fashioned battleship instead.

隐身是避免受到打击的一种方法,而美国隐形驱逐舰的发展处于领先地位。执行航行自由行动任务的目的是让对方注意到自己,不能隐形。老式战舰倒是可见。21世纪,美国海军需要建造的是新式战舰而不是老式战舰。

A contemporary battleship would combine advanced armor materials with automated damage control to produce a ship that is virtually unsinkable. Its offensive armaments might be mission-specific, but its key attribute would be survivability. It would be a ship that could be put in harm's way in the reasonable expectation of coming home in one piece.

现代战舰将先进的装甲材料和自动损失控制结合起来,造出一艘几乎不会沉没的船。其攻击性武器可能用来执行特定任务,但其关键属性是生存能力。这将是一艘即使被置于合理预期内危险境地也能返航的舰船。

This "battleship of the future" could solve the challenge posed by China's emerging anti-access / area denial (A2/AD) strategy for excluding the United States from the western Pacific. China is rapidly expanding and improving its networks of onshore, offshore, undersea, and space-based sensors to the extent that it will soon be able to see everything that moves between the Chinese mainland and the first island chain formed by Japan, Okinawa, Taiwan, and the Philippines. And improvements in precision weaponry will increasingly mean that China will be able to hit anything it can see.

这一“未来战舰”可以解决中国的反介入/区域封锁战略的挑战,该战略将美国排除在西太平洋之外。中国正在迅速扩大和改善其陆上、海上、海底和天基传感器网络。而改进精密武器将意味着中国能够打击任何可视目标。

America's response has been a shifting set of tactical plans successively labeled as AirSea Battle, JAM-GC and Third Offset. What these plans all have in common is the idea that the best defense is a good offense: instead of defending against Chinese A2/AD attacks, they propose that the United States strike first to take out the command-and-control networks that tie China's sensors to its precision munitions. The problem is that this implies the immediate escalation of any A2/AD scenario into a full-scale war.

美国的反应是一系列的战术计划,先后被标为“空海一体战”、“全球公域介入与机动联合概念”和“第三次抵消”。这些计划都有一个共同点,即进攻是最好的防御:不防御中国的反介入/区域封锁攻击,而是建议美国先发制人,打击中国指挥和控制网络。问题在于,这意味着反介入/区域封锁将立即升级为一场全面战争。

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