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Quora: 如果对印度宣战 ...

What would happen  if-China-declared-war-on-India-today

如果中国对印度宣战 ...

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【美版知乎quora问答】

Igor Markov, Been there done that.
Updated Aug 13, 2015 · Upvoted by Sougata Roy, M. A. International Relations & Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University
The Indian military will go on high alert but won't immediately start a mobilization because a full-scale war is unlikely. However, India will deploy troops, armor and missiles closer to China, also try to obtain more intelligence on China through the US, France and Israel. Maintain contacts with the militaries of all neighboring countries and those having territorial conflicts with China.
The militaries of Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea will go on elevated alert, to match the posture of the Chinese and North Korean militaries.

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/44247.html

印度军方会高度警惕,但不会马上行动。全面战争是不可能的。然而,印度会在中国边界附近部署军队、装甲和导弹,也会通过美国、法国和以色列获取中国情报。与邻国保持军事接触,这些国家与中国都存在领土争端。

台湾、越南和韩国的军方将保持警惕,以应对中国和朝鲜军队。

The newsmedia will pick this up quickly, and people all over India will start gathering in protest against the war. The Chinese public may be confused for a few days because their media will give only very limited coverage, and the purpose of declaring war won't be entirely clear. However, people in Hong Kong and millions of Chinese living abroad will start protests against war.

媒体会迅速报道战事,印度人会聚集起来,抗议战争。中国公众或许会困惑好几天,媒体只会提供有限的报道,宣战目的也完全不清楚。然而,香港人和海外华人会反对战争。

The stock markets and real estate in China and India will fall hard. USD and gold will gain on demand in Asia. Shares of defense suppliers from Europe, Taiwan, South Korea and Israel will gain (same for Japan's and US defense industry, but to a lesser degree). Real estate in the US and Australia will gradually become more expensive over many months (as big money moves away from Asia), possibly continuing an initial jump. Oil prices will fluctuate - first go up on uncertainty, then potentially fall back in two weeks when no major war unfolds but industries start slowing down nevertheless.

中国和印度股票市场和房地产市场会暴跌,美元和黄金在亚洲的需求会增加。欧洲、韩国、以色列军火商的股票将会大涨。

The US military will go on elevated alert in Japan, South Korea, the Persian Gulf, as well as in Guam and Diego Garcia - as the declaration of war can mask an attempted annexation of Taiwan or an attack on disputed islands in the South China sea. North Korea may be tempted to do something crazy. Satellites will watch nuclear silos more carefully in China, India and Pakistan. Reconnaissance planes will be flying a lot more often around China, Taiwan, North Korea, India, Pakistan. The US surface Navy will deploy to protect major shipping routes and discourage direct confrontations between the Indian and Chinese Navies. US submarines will deploy to the Taiwan strait, while one or two carrier strike groups will approach Taiwan from the East.

在日本、朝鲜、波斯湾、关岛、迪戈加西亚岛,美国军方会提高警惕。朝鲜可能会做出疯狂举动。卫星会密切监视中国、印度、巴基斯坦的核弹发射井,侦察机会更加频繁地在中国、朝鲜、印度、巴基斯坦周围飞行。美国海军将部署在主要航道,避免中印海军的直接对抗。美国潜艇会部署台湾海峡,同时一两艘航母会从东面靠近台湾。

The UN Security Council will convene within days. Russia and the UK - demonstratively neutral - will lead the efforts to avert a war (but Russia may try to use the opportunity to sell more weapons to both sides, covertly). As a direct participant of the conflict, China will be ineligible to vote on relevant issues, so no veto power. The US and France will stay involved, but not forcefully, trying to figure out what's behind this and what leverage remains. For example, the US may threaten new weapons supplies to Taiwan. If any evidence is found that China was planning a sneak attack on Taiwan, the US may support Taiwan's declaration of independence.

联合国安理会召开会议,俄罗斯和英国——理论上对立——将努力避免战争(但俄罗斯可能会利用这个机会,秘密地向双方出售武器)。

作为冲突参与方,中国没有资格参与相关问题投票,因此没有否决权。美国和法国会继续参与。如果证据显示中国计划偷袭台湾,美国可能会支持台湾宣布独立。

In a week, it will be clear to everyone that it makes little sense for China to attack India (other than in isolated border skirmishes). The two countries are separated by enormous natural obstacles, don't have the ability to move a lot of troops and supplies abroad, but have a lot of weapons useful for defense, including active anti-ballistic defense programs. In other words, offensive operations won't accomplish much. Given the enormous damage caused to the economy with every day of a freshly declared war, China will either call it off quickly or clarify that it did not intend to start a full-scale war. In the meantime, cyber-warfare will intensify.

一周之内,形势就会明朗。中国进攻印度毫无意义。两个国家之间有着自然屏障隔离,无法保障后勤供应。进攻行动不会产生多少效果。考虑到开战每一天,经济就会遭受巨大损失,中国要么迅速叫停,要么明确表示不打算发动全面战争。与此同时,网络战会加剧。

 

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