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Quora讨论:印度会成为超级大国吗?

Will India ever become a superpower?

印度会成为超级大国吗?

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【美版知乎quora问答】

Igor Markov, Been there done that.
Updated Dec 8, 2015 · Featured on Slate and Quartz
Originally Answered: Will India become a global superpower by 2050? If yes, how?
This is possible but not at all easy. For the sake of long-term analysis, let's neglect some of India's current weaknesses which may get resolved in 10-20 years, but focus on fundamentals and their manifestations.

原题:印度会在2050年成为全球超级大国吗?怎么做?

可能,但并非易事。从长远分析,忽略目前印度的一些缺点,这些缺点无法在10~20年内解决,关注基本原理和表现。

India's economy is projected to reach the #3 spot by 2020 (by at least some analysts and metrics; it's already there by PPP), surpassing Japan, and trailing only (#1) and the US (#2). In view of 's recent economic troubles and suspicious accounting, 's ascent is in doubt, but India's upward path seems more certain (say, by 2030), as its excesses have been smaller so far. Of course, India's economy must become more robust and structurally sound, while the legal sy em must strengthen as well, and co ption must be addressed. Going forward, India has huge pential due to its large population, a long-standing tradition of de acy and stable go nment sy em with non-violent transitions, convenient location for trade, promity to major oil exporters, decent standing in the world, a large English-speaking population, massive engineering education that is gradually improving in quality, and a sy em of R&D institutions. India's current weakness is limited global reach. In particular, the BRICS group is looking less and less promising due to significant divergence between its members (some are in deep recession, some need oil to be expensive, while others prefer ch oil, etc). However, G20 has been increasingly relevant. Should India and reach the status of developed economies (perhaps in 20 years), they may be added to the G7 forum. In general, faster development of the world economy should help develo countries to catch up, but in a slower world economy the developed countries will preserve their lead.

【印度经济】

印度经济会在2020年时成为世界第三大经济体(至少根据一些分析师和指标;购买力平价已排行第三),赶超日本,仅次于和美国。

鉴于近期的经济困境和可疑的统计,崛起要打个问号。印度崛起之路更为板上钉钉(比如2030年)。当然,印度经济更强劲、结构更强健,同时加强法律体系,解决问题。

展望未来,印度潜力巨大,这是因为:印度人口庞大、长期的传统、非更替的稳定政府制、有利的贸易位置、靠近主要石油出口国、体面地站在世界上、庞大的英语人口、质量逐渐改进的庞大的工程教育、高效的研发机构体系。

印度当前的弱点是全球覆盖有限,由于成员国间的分歧,金砖国家的前景越来越渺茫。G20变得越来越重要。如果和印度能达到发达国家的经济地位(或许20年内),可能会加入G7论坛。

总而言之,世界经济的快速发展有助于发展家迎头赶上。世界经济放缓的情况下,发达国家将保持领先。

India's military is ranked #4 in 2015 by Global Firepower after the US, Russia and , and followed by the UK. While this is unlikely to change by 2020, I expect Russia to drop out from the top three in 10-20 years, due to the effects of protracted financial crisis, economic stagnation, and deteriorating demographics. In contrast, both India and the UK are primed to significantly increase their military strength by 2025. With two new super-carriers, the UK will have a stronger Navy (currently, UK's Navy is considered slightly weaker than Indian). The recently-announced massive new purchase program for strike aircraft can make the UK Air Force stronger as well (it is currently judged weaker than India's, and is a lot smaller). India's initial bet on Russian fifth-gen fighters (PAK FA) has gone sour. The supersonic cruise missile Brahmos jointly developed by India and Russia isn't deployed by Russia for some reason (despite its availability) and does not have direct analogues in NATO countries, while NATO can technically develop one. This raises doubts about the operational effectiveness of this primarily-anti-ship missile.

2015年【印度军事】在《全球火力》排行排第4,仅此美、俄、中、英。这点2020年可能不会改变。我预计因为长期的金融危机、经济停滞和人口结构的日益恶化,俄罗斯在未来10~20年内被挤出前三名。

相比之下,印度、英国都准备在2025年前显著增强军事实力。英国有两艘超级航母,将拥有一只更强大的海军(目前英国海军实力略低于印度)。最近宣布的大型攻击型飞机采购计划,也能增强英国空军实力(据判断它目前比印度空军更弱,规模更小)。

印度对俄罗斯五代机(PAK FA)的初步押注已经失败。由印俄共同研发的超音速巡航导弹“布拉莫斯”,由于某些原因,俄罗斯并没有部署(尽管它具有可用性),在北约国家也没有类似的导弹,而北约是有技术开发的。这使人们对这种初级反舰导弹的作战效能产生怀疑。

Even today, India cannot project power away from its borders nearly as efficiently as the UK can (due to UK's bases and close defense relations with NATO).And India has no military alliences like NATO and the Five Eyes. India is likely to remain the #4 military power through 2030, but if Russia is replaced by the UK in the top 3, this can increase India's significance because the UK is a part of the already-strong NATO. It's really hard to guess the military developments by 2050, but the NATO militaries will clearly become increasingly unmanned, negating population handicaps and leveraging new technology, while other countries are likely to lag behind. The extent of this trend will be determined by specific technology developments and economic health of the countries involved.

即使现在,印度也不能像英国那样,有效地将军队部署在边境之外(由于英国的军事基地和与北约的密切防务关系)。印度也没有像北约和五眼联盟这样的军师盟友。

印度可能在2030年继续保持第四军事强国的地位,如果俄罗斯的前三地位被英国取代,将增加印度的重要性。英国是已经强大的北约的一部分。

真的很难猜测2050年的军事发展,北约的军事能力很明显越来越无人驾驭。

 

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